What would war in the future be about, oil or water?

[Throttle]

Oil is going to be gone in around 20 years.

oil will always be around -- right now oil producers still leave the majority of a field's potential output in the ground because it's not economical to pull out. proven oil reserves are at their highest in human history. as the price of oil goes up (a) more and more marginal fields will become economical, including ones previously 'emptied' and abandoned (b) carbon based alternatives (tar sands, oil shale) will become economical and (c) all alternatives will become more economical.

do you sense a theme? we'll stop trying to pull oil out of the ground when it becomes uneconomical (and we'll leave some behind). we're a long, long ways from that, and no one can give a precise date (everyone who has tried to in the past has been wrong).

 

[seanchai]

neither. war isn't caused by conflict over resources.

Interesting. The civil war in Darfur is usually attributed to fighting over access to limited Sahel resources, because more resources = better life chances. This is usually the theoretical impulse behind ethnic conflict, according to more than a few scholars.

Or is ethnic conflict different from war?

 

[Throttle]

well my above statements don't make any sense outside of the context of interstate war.

however, i believe the trigger is the same. one group is more powerful & believes it can take something from another successfully -- and has now done so repeatedly. in this case, i wouldn't call darfur a civil war -- the victims of the janjaweed fighters have little power and no recourse to a higher power at this point. like rwanda, and parts of the bosnian war, it is a massacre, not a war (the bosnian war was in fact a civil war, but there were several massacres within it)

the particular trigger does not matter, what matters in war is that both sides believe they have something to gain (one by attacking & the other by resisting -- or in some cases, both by attacking).

 

[PeterNorthisawesome]

Save your hate and personal feelings about America for another thread, the only thing that made sense in your post is this, the last 2 sentences.
Ok so you added the Religion factor for future wars. A war fought about religion. It sounds very much like past wars but not unlikely in the future either.

However as a spiritual but not religious person, and I know a lot of people are like me. I doubt that future war would be about religion. Any rational person won't fight over religion.
We need water and energy to survive, we don't need some imposed moral or belief to survive.

You just proved my point, I've lived and visited other countries and I actually can find you the sources to back my claims. But hey your ignorant and I won't want to waste my time, when you don't have the nesseccary intellect to realize that modern wars are driven by religion. WHY THE F*CK DO YOU THINK 9/11 happened? CUZ USA IS BOTH CHRISITAN AND DEMOCRATIC! Now why don't you educate yourself instead of criticising, so you don't look like a fool.

 

[PeterNorthisawesome]

oil will always be around -- right now oil producers still leave the majority of a field's potential output in the ground because it's not economical to pull out. proven oil reserves are at their highest in human history. as the price of oil goes up (a) more and more marginal fields will become economical, including ones previously 'emptied' and abandoned (b) carbon based alternatives (tar sands, oil shale) will become economical and (c) all alternatives will become more economical.

do you sense a theme? we'll stop trying to pull oil out of the ground when it becomes uneconomical (and we'll leave some behind). we're a long, long ways from that, and no one can give a precise date (everyone who has tried to in the past has been wrong).

Not true... you know that oil comes from fossil fuels that takes thousands of years to form right? Did you know that oil output goes through a 20 year cycle?

"It’s not that we are running out of oil. But the oil cycle creates a peak oil period and then a slump oil period much like other industries. Only so much oil can be produced in a year. During the peak of the production cycle the maximum amount of barrels are produced but on the downward slump there is less oil produced.

These peaks and dips are where we see the prices of oil rise and fall when we fuel up our cars or buy heating oil. And although we wine and complain about these increases we continue to consume huge amounts of oil in our day to day lives.

The problem arises when we look at the full 20 year cycle. If 1980 was a peak year and 2000 was at the lowest production levels then 2020 will again be a peak production year. So the oil companies will be producing the same amount of oil in 2020 as they did in 1980.

But here’s where the problem is. The population in 2020 will be almost double what it was in 1980 so the demand for oil will far exceed the available oil. And based on simple economics of supply and demand, this means the price of oil is going to skyrocket. Nothing like we’ve seen to date. Far worse! In fact it causes dependant economies to crash and resource wars to break out."

 

[gmillar]

Save your hate and personal feelings about America for another thread, the only thing that made sense in your post is this, the last 2 sentences.
Ok so you added the Religion factor for future wars. A war fought about religion. It sounds very much like past wars but not unlikely in the future either.

However as a spiritual but not religious person, and I know a lot of people are like me. I doubt that future war would be about religion. Any rational person won't fight over religion.
We need water and energy to survive, we don't need some imposed moral or belief to survive.

I'm afraid those aren't personal feelings, that's called popular opinion. Religion is the cause for every war with the middle east, since the crusaders. And if you were a little less ignorant, you might find that rationality and religion are virtually mutually exclusive. True, we don't need religion to survive. Try telling that to the billions of religious people.

 

[Call_Me_Daddy]

Try telling that to the billions of religious people.

No way. Its a form of population control. The more religious wackos we have starting wars, the better it is for everyone else. Otherwise if everyone was rational and smart, we'd be packed like in Hong Kong. Like sardines in a can. Too many of us would survive.


Fvck that. Let them kill each other. More room for me and you.

 

[sparky0000]

You just proved my point, I've lived and visited other countries and I actually can find you the sources to back my claims. But hey your ignorant and I won't want to waste my time, when you don't have the nesseccary intellect to realize that modern wars are driven by religion. WHY THE F*CK DO YOU THINK 9/11 happened? CUZ USA IS BOTH CHRISITAN AND DEMOCRATIC! Now why don't you educate yourself instead of criticising, so you don't look like a fool.

9-11 had nothing to do with Christianity or democracy. It had to do with support for Israel. That is something that I thought everyone knew. I hate to tell you this, but much of the Middle East is heavily Christian. Lebanon has been controlled by Christians for a very long time. Lebanon is also democratic. The radical Islamic groups often work with Christian groups. Just look at the alliance between Michel Aoun (a hardcore Christian) and Hezbollah as well as Hammas. That is right. This is common in the region. During the Lebanese Civil War in the 80's there were many Christian/Muslim alliances. Just as there were many fights between Christian and Christian and Muslim and Muslim. In other words, the region is f*****. The more you learn and travel the more you see how the USA needs to get out. This will never happen because of AIPAC.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/02/it_is_official_1.php
The Shiite-Christian embrace, which Nasrallah and Aoun repeatedly insisted was "not a political alliance or front against other parties, but rather a political rapprochement," was held at Mar Mikhail Church, located a few blocks from Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs.
That's right. The evil ones are kickin' it at Church :rock: . Like I said, the region is f****. The best bet is to not pick sides and run.

http://www.alcc-research.com/images/Aoun_Nasrallah.jpg
The leader of a major terrorist group being welcomed at church. Americans are simple people. It is hard for an American to understand how complex things are. There is no black and white. It is more a struggle for survival.

 

[Throttle]

Not true... you know that oil comes from fossil fuels that takes thousands of years to form right?

of course. that doesn't affect my argument at all.

But here’s where the problem is. The population in 2020 will be almost double what it was in 1980 so the demand for oil will far exceed the available oil. And based on simple economics of supply and demand, this means the price of oil is going to skyrocket. Nothing like we’ve seen to date. Far worse! In fact it causes dependant economies to crash and resource wars to break out."

the last time the price of oil skyrocketed, it did not lead to any wars over oil. in fact, the only war in that part of the world in 1980 was one Iraq launched at Iran (with US backing). Hussein was not after Iran's oil -- he could barely develop the oil in his own country.

a rise in the price of oil does not guarantee that dependent economies will crash. as i said before, as the price of oil goes up, the quantity demanded will go down & all substitutes will be more attractive. if the US & other oil consumers wanted to speed that along, they'd just slap a tax on oil now & face the pain sooner rather than later.

if you "know" these things, I encourage you to apply that knowledge to oil futures by going very, very long on oil. let me know how you're doing in 20 years.

 

[Throttle]

No way. Its a form of population control. The more religious wackos we have starting wars, the better it is for everyone else. Otherwise if everyone was rational and smart, we'd be packed like in Hong Kong. Like sardines in a can. Too many of us would survive.

some "religious" people (especially Catholics, Mormons, and other anti-b.c. / "fill the Earth" types) are actually largely responsible for ongoing population growth.

the most secular (& xenophobic) societies in the world (Europe & Japan) are actually worried that population growth has dropped below replacment rate. you couldn't start enough wars to make up for the fundamental difference in birthrates.

i maintain that no war has ever been started over religion. there have been many religiously-inspired massacres & inquisitions, but every "religious" war I can think of was actually started over power politics (see my above explanation)

 

[PeterNorthisawesome]

9-11 had nothing to do with Christianity or democracy. It had to do with support for Israel. That is something that I thought everyone knew. I hate to tell you this, but much of the Middle East is heavily Christian. Lebanon has been controlled by Christians for a very long time. Lebanon is also democratic. The radical Islamic groups often work with Christian groups. Just look at the alliance between Michel Aoun (a hardcore Christian) and Hezbollah as well as Hammas. That is right. This is common in the region. During the Lebanese Civil War in the 80's there were many Christian/Muslim alliances. Just as there were many fights between Christian and Christian and Muslim and Muslim. In other words, the region is f*****. The more you learn and travel the more you see how the USA needs to get out. This will never happen because of AIPAC.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/02/it_is_official_1.php
The Shiite-Christian embrace, which Nasrallah and Aoun repeatedly insisted was "not a political alliance or front against other parties, but rather a political rapprochement," was held at Mar Mikhail Church, located a few blocks from Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs.
That's right. The evil ones are kickin' it at Church :rock: . Like I said, the region is f****. The best bet is to not pick sides and run.

http://www.alcc-research.com/images/Aoun_Nasrallah.jpg
The leader of a major terrorist group being welcomed at church. Americans are simple people. It is hard for an American to understand how complex things are. There is no black and white. It is more a struggle for survival.

Are you serious? Why do they call it "Jihad" instead of "Crusades" then? Osama Bin Laden in his tapes made it clear that he attacked US because it's a becon for democracy and freedom. Most of Iraqi insurgents are fighting for independance from US occupation, however the suicide bombers that they have are religious fanatics that will sacrifice themselves for Allah not Jesus or God. So yea I don't know what you mean by Middle East being Christian since clearly they aren't... 93% of Iraqi's are Muslim and the reason they're fighting a civil war is because of the separation between Shiite and Sunnis.

 

[gmillar]

some "religious" people (especially Catholics, Mormons, and other anti-b.c. / "fill the Earth" types) are actually largely responsible for ongoing population growth.

the most secular (& xenophobic) societies in the world (Europe & Japan) are actually worried that population growth has dropped below replacment rate. you couldn't start enough wars to make up for the fundamental difference in birthrates.

i maintain that no war has ever been started over religion. there have been many religiously-inspired massacres & inquisitions, but every "religious" war I can think of was actually started over power politics (see my above explanation)

Medieval crusades. The Europeans gained nothing but some churches and relics. No resources or power.

 

[Rebound Material]

corn

 

[seanchai]

The leader of a major terrorist group being welcomed at church. Americans are simple people. It is hard for an American to understand how complex things are. There is no black and white. It is more a struggle for survival.

Thank God we have sparky here to help us!

 

[Throttle]

Medieval crusades. The Europeans gained nothing but some churches and relics. No resources or power.

the early Crusades were primarily an outlet for all the excess veteran warriors roaming Europe at that time -- the idea was to give them a goal that didn't involve killing one another. Without all that extra power sitting around going to waste (literally), no one would have seriously dreamed of invading Jerusalem.

Also, the waning Byzantine empire was totering -- the Crusades were an attempt to shore up the bulwark of Constantinople by killing Turks.

the fact that they failed to consolidate & hold on to anything economically or politically relevant just means that they over-estimated their probability of success. like most invaders.

Likewise, the "religious wars" often called the 30 Years War would have never gotten anywhere w/o princes playing power politics. Luther probably would have been forgotten (either ignored or burned at the stake) w/o the backing of the prince in his area. Opportunistic prices everywhere jumped into the game over the next hundred years.

 

[Last Man Standing]

Are you serious? Osama Bin Laden in his tapes made it clear that he attacked US because it's a becon for democracy and freedom. .

This is crap!!! Quit watching Faux News Israeli/Pentagon channel!!!

Are you part of the Propaganda team?

Peak oil is a myth - there is too much oil -- this is propaganda!!! Also the sun is causing global warming and NOT humans!!!

 

[Æquitas]

You just proved my point, I've lived and visited other countries and I actually can find you the sources to back my claims. But hey your ignorant and I won't want to waste my time, when you don't have the nesseccary intellect to realize that modern wars are driven by religion. WHY THE F*CK DO YOU THINK 9/11 happened? CUZ USA IS BOTH CHRISITAN AND DEMOCRATIC! Now why don't you educate yourself instead of criticising, so you don't look like a fool.

I don't think you appreciate the unnecessity of discussing off topic issues by means of blantant name-calling.

Why don't you provide the sources that back your claims? Your claim about modern war is driven by religion has no more consistency than a public opinion, with as much facts in it as any propaganda material. The people that have such opinion including the poor, uneducated hatred filled mind of the people that felt victimized by the US arm force. Or the leftwing extremists of the West, they dislike the foreign policy of the US no matter what.
You claim to know the reason behind the 9/11 attack, when most people haven't even seen clear evidence whether Osama Bin Laden is in fact the one behind it all, what his reason for the attack was, if he is alive, where is he now.
The only thing we know for sure is, Osama is involved with Al Quada, that Al Quada despises and wishes to destroy the US, Israel and the Western world. The rest is propaganda, half truth half bull****.

 

[Vulpine]

Future wars will be fought over who gets to sleep in my bed.

 

[Latinoman]

Water can be created.
Many have said that future wars would be about the earth supply of water. Water is very basic, everyone needs it daily, it's the source of life, that will get scarce in the future. There are water creating technology that works well already. "Making water from thin air" http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2006/10/71898

What about oil?
The that people that believes in future wars being fought about water and not about fossil energy. They believe that we have vast amount of oil undiscovered, or there we will develop better technology to extract them cheaper and more efficient. That there will be alternative, recyclable energy sources.
The difference between water and oil is that oil is chemically much more complicated that water, so they can't at current level of technology be created artifically.
Keep in mind this is about future wars, so current wars like the one in Iraq doesn't count.

You need water (LOTS of it) to create refined petroleum products.

 

[Latinoman]

neither. war isn't caused by conflict over resources.

Japan attacked us. Oil was the underline issue.