Crypto trading

[jaygreenb]

Anons always buy at resistance and sell at support. Never change anons, never change.

Pretty wild that the herd/general public is completely wrong on everything, never fails lol Sometimes it just takes some time

I was shocked to see alts hold up staggeringly well on the drop under 18K and then massively rebound. Still are down hugely, most far more than BTC but I wouldn't be surprised to see more of them start to outpace BTC temporarily.

Bought a crapload of OGN(one of my favorites due to it's huge rallies it typically has after drops) at .186 and it basically stayed above .20 even during the big drop yesterday and then rebounded to almost .28 today. Sold and waiting to rebuy lower again over the next day or two.

Nice, alts are almost just a levered play on Bitcoin, you get exaggerated moves to the upside and downside. Only problem is over time they get replaced with new ones that catch the upside moves. Whats crazy to me is these funds being so levered up, every cycle new funds get blown up. Never learn. 3 arrows had massive loans out at almost every lender, then ghosted them when they asked for more collateral and got liquidated. Unreal lol

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

when it was 69k I remember saying man.. I wish I could buy 10k Bitcoin and 300 dollar ethereum again. Here we go

what amazes me is all my friends.. when BC is at all time highs they start getting into it... and always say I should have bought like you in 2017.... but then when the prices drop they bail and call it a Ponzi scheme.

The quote (prepare to butcher it) "when people are greedy be fearful and when people are fearful, be greedy." Pretty much do the opposite of your average retail investor. Got btc under 20k. Not mad. Can easily see it go 11k IF Celsius goes tits up and whatever next shoe drops. Not a prediction BTW. Would have welcomed 100 points by the fed for cheaper etherium.

Got in on btc at 6k usd. Biggest regret was not buying more. In London nobody talked crypto. 0. Nil. None of my mates entertained it. Even the playboy's and oGs in the game. The blue pill guys were all saying their wives won't let them or she will leave them if they buy. Pathetic.

Years ago, I thought it was a scam but a computer science friend actually taught me. Broke it down. I got in right after. Sucked because it easy so niche. Read mastering btc and eth. Read message boards. Lots of trial and error. Buddy has some bot now. Feeds it btc. Has passive streams of income from crypto. I suspect he's been mining since 2014.

Expecting btc 15k before summer even if only a flash crash. Not waiting for it. DCAing regularly.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think alts holding up well is due to most of this is giant funds and platforms forced selling of btc/eth, 3 arrows, Luna, Celsius etc. A lot of funds were tied to these. They were all highly levered up. This last leg down isn't coming from retail.

The drops have been massive. I see more massive liquidation coming. Also when eth and wrapped btc get unlocked, profits will be taken. Not sure what your play is? I'm going to keep accumulating. I won't try to Time the bottom. Just more DCAing at certain price points. Was happy at btc under 30k. Having a field day under 20k.

 

[jaygreenb]

I bought some.

I have no real belief in it, other than people seem to value it, and being contrarian I buy assets which are in distress.

I have only risked what I can afford to lose.

Meanwhile my commodity portfolio, which I’ve built since 2014, is going great guns.

Slowly rotating back into tech/growth and a little crypto.

etherium (50%) and the rest split between BTC and ripple.

I suggest learn how to self custody and get comfortable with that. It is one of the most important qualities it has. If you need help, happy to oblige.

I like commodities as well, imagine they are going to be very volatile this decade but overall in a massive bull trend.

 

[jaygreenb]

The drops have been massive. I see more massive liquidation coming. Also when eth and wrapped btc get unlocked, profits will be taken. Not sure what your play is? I'm going to keep accumulating. I won't try to Time the bottom. Just more DCAing at certain price points. Was happy at btc under 30k. Having a field day under 20k.

I think you got the right idea, don't think there is any rush right now. I have bought a little since the last drop but am being patient. Think there is a lot more pain coming overall for the economy

 

[jaygreenb]

So many variables with commodities. I wouldn’t like to predict.

I concentrate on knowing when to buy. That’s the easy part. Knowing when to sell is the hard bit.

Commodities tend to super cycle as you can’t increase supply rapidly, but on the demand side, it’s hard to see how this sustains without someone like China building a society.

Tough one to call.

commodity super cycles tend to be 10 years up and 20 down. We are only 10 years into the “down”

Yeah, a lot of demand destruction with raising rates and cutting back QE. I just like to sit in a trend I see happening over the next decade, not trade in and out. Maybe pull some off the table if things get really overheated.

 

[jaygreenb]

On balance and paper this is the right move. My fear is that this is being driven from energy prices, not CPI. Central banks can’t control the cost of oil.

oil falling would be a really good thing.

Core inflation is rising off the back of it though.

high inflation does have some benefits. My mortgage loan is decreasing while my house appreciates, although short term housing market cooling is inevitable.

Growth and tech stocks look cheap.

Yeah, a lot of variables pulling in different directions. Will be volatile both ways, at some point they will go back to cutting rates and QE. They just want to look like they are trying to tame inflation, reality is they would have to pull a Volker and get rates over the inflation rate to really get after it. That is literally impossible with all the debt out there.

Cheap debt like a mortgage in a high inflation environment is probably the best inflation hedge for the general public. As long you can still service the payments, like you said it gets cheaper.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think you got the right idea, don't think there is any rush right now. I have bought a little since the last drop but am being patient. Think there is a lot more pain coming overall for the economy

I do too. I got greedy. I wanted it to go lower so I held go. Go figure it went up. I still got dry powder ready to deploy. Will be going hard on that next big dip . unfortunately given the way of the government and lock downs, talks of Monkey pox and war, a big emergency fund is now necessary. Access to liquid cash is a must.

Still formulating a plan and strategy.

 

[jaygreenb]

I do too. I got greedy. I wanted it to go lower so I held go. Go figure it went up. I still got dry powder ready to deploy. Will be going hard on that next big dip . unfortunately given the way of the government and lock downs, talks of Monkey pox and war, a big emergency fund is now necessary. Access to liquid cash is a must.

Still formulating a plan and strategy.

I think you will have another opportunity, believe the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break. Personally, right now is about positioning for either outcome and not getting caught completely offsides. For me that is being in bitcoin/eth, commodities, metals and a large cash position.

 

[Reyaj]

I've been accumulating this at all prices. If it's something that will be significant in the future it should be a good investment...

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think you will have another opportunity, believe the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break. Personally, right now is about positioning for either outcome and not getting caught completely offsides. For me that is being in bitcoin/eth, commodities, metals and a large cash position.

Jimmy is talking about CBDC. Not sure why so many think that they will stop rate hikes. They likely won't and are planning to break something that they can't fix to excuse their master plan and WEF. There's some real sinister bond-like villains. Absolute monsters.

Same. Larger cash position. Initially I was annoyed I didn't ape in at 29k. Felt the same after 17k. Ready for the next dip but still a bit gun shy. I think we got 2 years of this **** or Damn close. I'm sticking the course. Was a big proponent of a emergency fund. 3-6 months. I now think 2 years is still necessity. Liquid cash in a personal fire proof safe or something.

Not to go tin foil hat but I can't wait for what next is to pop off.

 

[mmor]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

 

[andreihaha]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

Well, you're either going in at a very good or a terrible time.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

Late? You are at the near bottom of the market.

 

[Bingo-Player]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

 

[Bible_Belt]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

That account was banned after 5 fairly boring posts. Maybe it was a bot.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

There are bottoming formations like "W" bottoms that are very common and also look at confluences of moving averages, etc ...

The weekly bullish order block lies around 10-12K, which is where I expect us to eventually bottom out around.

 

[jaygreenb]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

I would say determine what amount you want to get in and slowly add and spread buys over the next 6-12months. Very hard to time bottoms and being new you definitely will not be able too. I would stick with majority BTC and some eth. Spend time really learning about what you are investing in. Happy to send some resources

 

[Bible_Belt]

the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break.

As much as I like to disagree with you, I think you summed up everything right there. The next question is at what point that happens. With corporate America hooked on cheap debt, rates can't go up that much without everything falling apart. So then the power of the fed is actually very limited, if they can't contain inflation with a few little rate hikes. Once it gets past them, then we are in uncharted territory, where the only way to tame inflation is to nuke the economy with mass bankruptcies.

 

[jaygreenb]

As much as I like to disagree with you, I think you summed up everything right there. The next question is at what point that happens. With corporate America hooked on cheap debt, rates can't go up that much without everything falling apart. So then the power of the fed is actually very limited, if they can't contain inflation with a few little rate hikes. Once it gets past them, then we are in uncharted territory, where the only way to tame inflation is to nuke the economy with mass bankruptcies.

Really no good options, the can has been kicked so far down the road for so long there really isn't a viable option. Attempt to save the currency and get inflation under control all markets completely meltdown. Attempt to save the markets and we potentially get hyper inflation. If I had to bet, at some point they will pivot since they most likely will see QE as the path of least resistance. Markets crashing cause so many issues with pensions, tax generation, etc