Crypto trading

[jaygreenb]

Let's say you are the dictator of a country and control everything. What is your motivation to allow crypto to exist? It cheats you out of the sweet deal of controlling your country's currency. Why would any government give up that privilege?

I'm sure some countries will try to ban it as some have, some will embrace it. Here in lies the problem, it would be similar to trying to ban the internet. As a country you would be left behind and all that capital and brain power would go to another country. Not only would top talent citizens leave they would be leaving trillions in tax revenue on the table. It has already been deemed as private property and free speech by the courts. Bitcoin is going to treated like a commodity. If they were going to ban they would have had to do it years ago. It is too decentralized and entrenched now with citizens, corporations and politicians who have a highly vested interest to defend it. The only way you could truly get rid of it is turn off the internet to world forever. We have never had an asset so portable before, you can memorize you wallet passcode and have billions, making it very easy to leave with your wealth. As opposed say stocks or real estate where they can freeze your accounts. As far as Bitcoin goes, it has been made very clear in Western countries it will be embraced. If they don't want it to be used a currency pretty easy to do, just leave the current tax structure where any transaction is a taxable event. Bitcoin and the rest of crypto are two completely different assets and will be treated that way.

That being said, there will be heavy regulations for the rest of crypto. 99% of them are going to fail or are a legit scam. Similar to the tech boom in the 90's, most of this stuff will get washed out. There will be a handful that have massive impact though.

Bitcoin is the only coin the SEC Chair will call a commodity

The comment was notable, as the market has been operating under a different assumption

www.axios.com

FACT SHEET: President Biden to Sign Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets | The White House

Outlines First Whole-of-Government Strategy to Protect Consumers, Financial Stability, National Security, and Address Climate Risks Digital assets,

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[jaygreenb]

@BackInTheGame78 Hearing rumors kucoin is having issues and is going to limit withdrawals. I remember you saying you used them, I do too. Might be a good idea to take anything off if you have anything there.

Everyone else, get any coins you have off exchanges immediately. If you need help, i'll walk you through it. Would not delay in doing this, a lot of serious issues going on with many of them right now.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Sell, Mortimer, sell!

 

[jaygreenb]

Sell, Mortimer, sell!

Nah, you said the same at 3k too lol I have a lot more cash ready this time around

 

[Bible_Belt]

Nah, you said the same at 3k too lol I have a lot more cash ready this time around

This thread was started in 2021 and btc hasn't been 3k since 2018. It does take a lot of humility to beg people to sell the ponzi scheme you have been selling, so at least good for you in that regard.

 

[jaygreenb]

This thread was started in 2021 and btc hasn't been 3k since 2018. It does take a lot of humility to beg people to sell the ponzi scheme you have been selling, so at least good for you in that regard.

Yes, we had this same exact conversation back then, you even said that exact phrase. Just takes time, consistency and patience. Here is the thread to jog your memory.

Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

I remember a few months ago there were several posters who were talking up bitcoin like there was no tomorrow. Now that Bitcoin has dropped to 6K and is nearing the point of no return where it costs more to mine the coins than the coins are actually worth(somewhere around 5K), they seem oddly...

www.sosuave.net

 

[Bible_Belt]

Just takes time, consistency and patience.

No, it just takes an industry purchasing all of the politicians who might regulate it. That's why this stupidity has been allowed to exist this long, blatant corruption.

Robert Reich wrote a recent article about. He points out that Bill Clinton cooperating with Republicans to end glass steagall paved the way for everyone to get screwed on crypto

The Crypto Crash: all Ponzi schemes topple eventually | Robert Reich

We’re back to the wild west finances of the 1920s as the crypto industry pours huge money into political campaigns

www.theguardian.com

At least you can admit now that crypto is a scam, except for the one you own, right? You changed your tune about all the others, but you promise this time that you won't reverse course again. You could have a future in politics, man.

 

[jaygreenb]

No, it just takes an industry purchasing all of the politicians who might regulate it. That's why this stupidity has been allowed to exist this long, blatant corruption.

Robert Reich wrote a recent article about. He points out that Bill Clinton cooperating with Republicans to end glass steagall paved the way for everyone to get screwed on crypto

The Crypto Crash: all Ponzi schemes topple eventually | Robert Reich

We’re back to the wild west finances of the 1920s as the crypto industry pours huge money into political campaigns

www.theguardian.com

At least you can admit now that crypto is a scam, except for the one you own, right? You changed your tune about all the others, but you promise this time that you won't reverse course again. You could have a future in politics, man.

Please show me where I said all these small cap alt coins and meme coins weren't a scam. You can't, I have always said that most were complete garbage and stay away. My message has been consistent, stick with bitcoin and if you want to speculate on defi/smart contracts you can do some ETH too. Dollar cost average and don't expect to get rich overnight. 99% of crypto out there is at best highly speculative tech but the majority were scams/money grabs.

I actually welcome regulation so a lot of the BS out there gets cleaned up. Bitcoin and the rest of crypto are two completely different types of assets. Hence, why Gensler stated that pretty much only Bitcoin was a commodity. You are just making up fake points to support your arguments, giving me flashbacks to my BPD relationship that originally brought me to this site 10yrs ago.

 

[Bingo-Player]

The technicals and economics of bitcoin can be argued all day long

A lot are sold on it being the future , i'm not sure but whatever

However nobody can deny bitcoin relies on a lot of speculation and positive sentiment from it's holders

And this is a factor i think a lot are forgetting...... you have a lot of investors and even organisations who were sold into bitcoin at 40,50,60K

They are currently staring at massive losses in the face of inflation and a looming recession two things crypto was heralded as being a safe haven AGAINST last year

Now its all very well for those who bought it at under 10K and to some extent under 20K to say ok well just buckle up and enjoy the ride

But the fact is the mugs who have bought in at 50-60K are now starting to realise they've been sold down the river

How exactly do you propose bitcoin regains the trust of the market to be able to gain the kind of upward momentum required to move it back unto 60K ? i just can't fathom what catalyst could possibly trigger it

We will literally never see another unicorn event in our lifetimes where central banks around the world pump billions of fake money into the system ?

I'm sorry but the only way i see bitcoin and crypto going is down to nothing.

 

[jaygreenb]

The technicals and economics of bitcoin can be argued all day long

A lot are sold on it being the future , i'm not sure but whatever

However nobody can deny bitcoin relies on a lot of speculation and positive sentiment from it's holders

And this is a factor i think a lot are forgetting...... you have a lot of investors and even organisations who were sold into bitcoin at 40,50,60K

They are currently staring at massive losses in the face of inflation and a looming recession two things crypto was heralded as being a safe haven AGAINST last year

Now its all very well for those who bought it at under 10K and to some extent under 20K to say ok well just buckle up and enjoy the ride

But the fact is the mugs who have bought in at 50-60K are now starting to realise they've been sold down the river

How exactly do you propose bitcoin regains the trust of the market to be able to gain the kind of upward momentum required to move it back unto 60K ? i just can't fathom what catalyst could possibly trigger it

We will literally never see another unicorn event in our lifetimes where central banks around the world pump billions of fake money into the system ?

I'm sorry but the only way i see bitcoin and crypto going is down to nothing.

Bitcoin has gone through these cycles many times over and over, you could of said the same thing each time. However each cycle adds to the growing base of people who understand it and realize the value prop and hold/accumulate. All metrics show this trend, can't really dispute the numbers. Price in the short term is one of the least important metrics. Like all networks the value grows as more people participate. Until there is mass adoption, there are going to be these cycles and those that don't understand it or took on too much leverage will get washed out. Then a base forms and goes through another growth trend. This is how free markets actually work and it is healthy long term.

A number of events could trigger another rush. Hyper inflation, debt market implosion, authoritarian countries freezing peoples assets, bank failures. There are many properties that fit different situations. With the current climate and everything going on I personally feel more comfortable holding Bitcoin and precious metals that I have in self custody over anything else. Other people may not feel the same, and that is fine. Prices of everything are going to be extremely volatile because of the destruction of our money. Look at the price of gold during the weimar inflation, it was all over the place and if you had leverage you got shaken out.

Majority of crypto is not needed. The fact is the majority is not decentralized and doesn't really need to be or operate on the blockchain. They are just riding the hype wave. Money/value and maybe a few other applications would benefit from the set up. The properties that matter are decentralized. secure, liquid, set rules that can't be changed, ability to hold/transact without a 3rd party. No other crypto is anywhere close to BTC in that.

Everyone has to make their own choice, I am comfortable with mine.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Bitcoin has gone through these cycles many times over and over, you could of said the same thing each time. However each cycle adds to the growing base of people who understand it and realize the value prop and hold/accumulate. All metrics show this trend, can't really dispute the numbers. Price in the short term is one of the least important metrics. Like all networks the value grows as more people participate. Until there is mass adoption, there are going to be these cycles and those that don't understand it or took on too much leverage will get washed out. Then a base forms and goes through another growth trend. This is how free markets actually work and it is healthy long term.

A number of events could trigger another rush. Hyper inflation, debt market implosion, authoritarian countries freezing peoples assets, bank failures. There are many properties that fit different situations. With the current climate and everything going on I personally feel more comfortable holding Bitcoin and precious metals that I have in self custody over anything else. Other people may not feel the same, and that is fine. Prices of everything are going to be extremely volatile because of the destruction of our money. Look at the price of gold during the weimar inflation, it was all over the place and if you had leverage you got shaken out.

Majority of crypto is not needed. The fact is the majority is not decentralized and doesn't really need to be or operate on the blockchain. They are just riding the hype wave. Money/value and maybe a few other applications would benefit from the set up. The properties that matter are decentralized. secure, liquid, set rules that can't be changed, ability to hold/transact without a 3rd party. No other crypto is anywhere close to BTC in that.

Everyone has to make their own choice, I am comfortable with mine.

I'm looking at Greyscale Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35% discount and wondering if you have any insights into that?

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm looking at Greyscale Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35% discount and wondering if you have any insights into that?

I do actually, I converted an old work retirement account to GBTC in 2017 and have been following it. Buying it now at a discount is basically a play that you think it gets converted to an ETF where that negative premium would get closed in to the Net Asset Value since you would be able to redeem directly for the bitcoin. I think that does happen at some point but it was recently rejected by the SEC, not sure why Gensler has such an issue with it, but he does. Greyscale just opened a lawsuit but not sure if that will be effective. It very well may take years to get converted, just do not know. In the meantime the structure of the fund is 2% fee every year which is far from ideal. Up until early 2021 the premium was actually positive 20-30%. A lot of hedge funds and individuals where actually putting in bitcoin for shares, then selling those shares to collect the premium. I think that is part of the reason it went negative.

Personally, I would rather just own the real bitcoin since there are a lot of unknowns at play and I think GBTC is a giant honey pot for the government if they ever wanted to confiscate. You lose a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin owning GBTC but there is the potential upside of closing the premium. Here is a pretty good video talking about it.

 

[Reyaj]

I do actually, I converted an old work retirement account to GBTC in 2017 and have been following it. Buying it now at a discount is basically a play that you think it gets converted to an ETF where that negative premium would get closed in to the Net Asset Value since you would be able to redeem directly for the bitcoin. I think that does happen at some point but it was recently rejected by the SEC, not sure why Gensler has such an issue with it, but he does. Greyscale just opened a lawsuit but not sure if that will be effective. It very well may take years to get converted, just do not know. In the meantime the structure of the fund is 2% fee every year which is far from ideal. Up until early 2021 the premium was actually positive 20-30%. A lot of hedge funds and individuals where actually putting in bitcoin for shares, then selling those shares to collect the premium. I think that is part of the reason it went negative.

Personally, I would rather just own the real bitcoin since there are a lot of unknowns at play and I think GBTC is a giant honey pot for the government if they ever wanted to confiscate. You lose a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin owning GBTC but there is the potential upside of closing the premium. Here is a pretty good video talking about it.

Oh wow so this kind of like a trust that holds BTC.. so can only get traded during market hours right? Kind of like an ETF?

 

[jaygreenb]

Oh wow so this kind of like a trust that holds BTC.. so can only get traded during market hours right? Kind of like an ETF?

Yes, exactly what it is. It is a trust but is trying to convert to an ETF. Can only be traded during market hours

 

[Fruitbat]

I agree, a lot of it depends on what the Fed decides to do as far as timing. No rush to get into anything right now

The problem with this is if we get to any sort of historical norm in interests rates. All assets tied to cheap debt take a complete nosedive, mass bankruptcies of personal, corporate and govts, pension funds go belly up, max layoffs, tax receipts dry up etc Going to be an interesting decade..

not necessarily. Temporarily.

Assets tied to debt benefit from high inflation, and high interest rates are a symptom of high inflation.

currently my mortgage capital is being reduced by 8% annually.

 

[jaygreenb]

not necessarily. Temporarily.

Assets tied to debt benefit from high inflation, and high interest rates are a symptom of high inflation.

currently my mortgage capital is being reduced by 8% annually.

Assets tied to debt are also are heavily impacted by increasing interest rates such as Tech and Real estate. Parts of the economy will have fits of deflation while others inflation, most likely energy and consumables. An increase in a couple percentage points to mortgages will also crash equity values with the decrease in consumer purchasing power. Anyone who bought in the past 2 years will most likely be underwater at some point. Add in the increased rates will push lay offs much higher as well. A lot of moving parts and variables.

 

[Reyaj]

I think we are going to see a good rise this week...

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

There are bottoming formations like "W" bottoms that are very common and also look at confluences of moving averages, etc ...

The weekly bullish order block lies around 10-12K, which is where I expect us to eventually bottom out around.

I hope you are right. I keep DCAing. My only heed for caution is 100k us 2021 btc that everyone expected. 17k might be the bottom. I don't know. I hope you are correct. I expect a 100 pts rate hike. Very unpopular opinion.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

That definitely is coming, just not sure what time frame that will be, could be a couple of years. They very well may pivot on rates and QE before hand to try and keep the system alive before a CBDC rollout. Besides a higher level of control, a CBDC doesn't solve all the issues out there and that continue to develop like supply chain disruptions, inflation and layoffs. Central banks and govts going to have massive credibility issues

Even then many could try banning crypto or regulations to the extreme end to rekt the game. I know it's coming. I don't trust them. Only fools will buy into the scheme. If the past two year scam hasn't been telling, there's no levels of diabolical stupidity they won't stop at to secure the ****ery.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Assets tied to debt are also are heavily impacted by increasing interest rates such as Tech and Real estate. Parts of the economy will have fits of deflation while others inflation, most likely energy and consumables. An increase in a couple percentage points to mortgages will also crash equity values with the decrease in consumer purchasing power. Anyone who bought in the past 2 years will most likely be underwater at some point. Add in the increased rates will push lay offs much higher as well. A lot of moving parts and variables.

Especially anybody who bought too much house.

New plan is to keep DCAING. If we crash below previous all time low, I will ape in. Hard. Real hard. I'm accumulating more dry powder. More than I'd like especially with inflation. Expect to crash before the fed meeting. Hoping for a lower bottom. Taking the W on any dip.