Crypto trading

[BackInTheGame78]

Bitcoin has gone through these cycles many times over and over, you could of said the same thing each time. However each cycle adds to the growing base of people who understand it and realize the value prop and hold/accumulate. All metrics show this trend, can't really dispute the numbers. Price in the short term is one of the least important metrics. Like all networks the value grows as more people participate. Until there is mass adoption, there are going to be these cycles and those that don't understand it or took on too much leverage will get washed out. Then a base forms and goes through another growth trend. This is how free markets actually work and it is healthy long term.

A number of events could trigger another rush. Hyper inflation, debt market implosion, authoritarian countries freezing peoples assets, bank failures. There are many properties that fit different situations. With the current climate and everything going on I personally feel more comfortable holding Bitcoin and precious metals that I have in self custody over anything else. Other people may not feel the same, and that is fine. Prices of everything are going to be extremely volatile because of the destruction of our money. Look at the price of gold during the weimar inflation, it was all over the place and if you had leverage you got shaken out.

Majority of crypto is not needed. The fact is the majority is not decentralized and doesn't really need to be or operate on the blockchain. They are just riding the hype wave. Money/value and maybe a few other applications would benefit from the set up. The properties that matter are decentralized. secure, liquid, set rules that can't be changed, ability to hold/transact without a 3rd party. No other crypto is anywhere close to BTC in that.

Everyone has to make their own choice, I am comfortable with mine.

I'm looking at Greyscale Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35% discount and wondering if you have any insights into that?

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm looking at Greyscale Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35% discount and wondering if you have any insights into that?

I do actually, I converted an old work retirement account to GBTC in 2017 and have been following it. Buying it now at a discount is basically a play that you think it gets converted to an ETF where that negative premium would get closed in to the Net Asset Value since you would be able to redeem directly for the bitcoin. I think that does happen at some point but it was recently rejected by the SEC, not sure why Gensler has such an issue with it, but he does. Greyscale just opened a lawsuit but not sure if that will be effective. It very well may take years to get converted, just do not know. In the meantime the structure of the fund is 2% fee every year which is far from ideal. Up until early 2021 the premium was actually positive 20-30%. A lot of hedge funds and individuals where actually putting in bitcoin for shares, then selling those shares to collect the premium. I think that is part of the reason it went negative.

Personally, I would rather just own the real bitcoin since there are a lot of unknowns at play and I think GBTC is a giant honey pot for the government if they ever wanted to confiscate. You lose a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin owning GBTC but there is the potential upside of closing the premium. Here is a pretty good video talking about it.

 

[Reyaj]

I do actually, I converted an old work retirement account to GBTC in 2017 and have been following it. Buying it now at a discount is basically a play that you think it gets converted to an ETF where that negative premium would get closed in to the Net Asset Value since you would be able to redeem directly for the bitcoin. I think that does happen at some point but it was recently rejected by the SEC, not sure why Gensler has such an issue with it, but he does. Greyscale just opened a lawsuit but not sure if that will be effective. It very well may take years to get converted, just do not know. In the meantime the structure of the fund is 2% fee every year which is far from ideal. Up until early 2021 the premium was actually positive 20-30%. A lot of hedge funds and individuals where actually putting in bitcoin for shares, then selling those shares to collect the premium. I think that is part of the reason it went negative.

Personally, I would rather just own the real bitcoin since there are a lot of unknowns at play and I think GBTC is a giant honey pot for the government if they ever wanted to confiscate. You lose a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin owning GBTC but there is the potential upside of closing the premium. Here is a pretty good video talking about it.

Oh wow so this kind of like a trust that holds BTC.. so can only get traded during market hours right? Kind of like an ETF?

 

[jaygreenb]

Oh wow so this kind of like a trust that holds BTC.. so can only get traded during market hours right? Kind of like an ETF?

Yes, exactly what it is. It is a trust but is trying to convert to an ETF. Can only be traded during market hours

 

[jaygreenb]

not necessarily. Temporarily.

Assets tied to debt benefit from high inflation, and high interest rates are a symptom of high inflation.

currently my mortgage capital is being reduced by 8% annually.

Assets tied to debt are also are heavily impacted by increasing interest rates such as Tech and Real estate. Parts of the economy will have fits of deflation while others inflation, most likely energy and consumables. An increase in a couple percentage points to mortgages will also crash equity values with the decrease in consumer purchasing power. Anyone who bought in the past 2 years will most likely be underwater at some point. Add in the increased rates will push lay offs much higher as well. A lot of moving parts and variables.

 

[Reyaj]

I think we are going to see a good rise this week...

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

There are bottoming formations like "W" bottoms that are very common and also look at confluences of moving averages, etc ...

The weekly bullish order block lies around 10-12K, which is where I expect us to eventually bottom out around.

I hope you are right. I keep DCAing. My only heed for caution is 100k us 2021 btc that everyone expected. 17k might be the bottom. I don't know. I hope you are correct. I expect a 100 pts rate hike. Very unpopular opinion.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

That definitely is coming, just not sure what time frame that will be, could be a couple of years. They very well may pivot on rates and QE before hand to try and keep the system alive before a CBDC rollout. Besides a higher level of control, a CBDC doesn't solve all the issues out there and that continue to develop like supply chain disruptions, inflation and layoffs. Central banks and govts going to have massive credibility issues

Even then many could try banning crypto or regulations to the extreme end to rekt the game. I know it's coming. I don't trust them. Only fools will buy into the scheme. If the past two year scam hasn't been telling, there's no levels of diabolical stupidity they won't stop at to secure the ****ery.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Assets tied to debt are also are heavily impacted by increasing interest rates such as Tech and Real estate. Parts of the economy will have fits of deflation while others inflation, most likely energy and consumables. An increase in a couple percentage points to mortgages will also crash equity values with the decrease in consumer purchasing power. Anyone who bought in the past 2 years will most likely be underwater at some point. Add in the increased rates will push lay offs much higher as well. A lot of moving parts and variables.

Especially anybody who bought too much house.

New plan is to keep DCAING. If we crash below previous all time low, I will ape in. Hard. Real hard. I'm accumulating more dry powder. More than I'd like especially with inflation. Expect to crash before the fed meeting. Hoping for a lower bottom. Taking the W on any dip.

 

[Reyaj]

Get ready folks I think we are going to see a surge within the next 3-4 weeks

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think that this is a trap. Alternatively, it could be legit. If whales know the fed is raising a mediocre 50 points but at 9.1% inflation, I'm expecting 100 at least. I'd expect the market to reflect that. It's incredibly difficult to understand wtf is going on. I regret not deploying more but I also think we retest prior lows IF not lower.

Ironically enough, I had thought we were breaking 100k usd last year before Christmas. I was wrong.

I have no idea wtf is going on. I'd expect the market to dip next weekend. More DCAing going forward. If we crash or any new lows, I'm going to ape in hard.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Get ready folks I think we are going to see a surge within the next 3-4 weeks

You could be correct but with the FED, with the next shoe to drop, Mt Gox, and whatever else is a surprise waiting, I'm skeptical. I think you could be correct but great for the short term.

Even acquiring btc now is a W compared to a few months ago.

 

[Roober]

You could buy now and you will probably still be up in a year.

I believe we haven’t seen the bottom yet though.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

You could buy now and you will probably still be up in a year.

I believe we haven’t seen the bottom yet though.

Yeah most likely but I think we are going to bottom out around 10-12K

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Yeah most likely but I think we are going to bottom out around 10-12K

Seriously? I expected a full 1% raise. Wrong. I thought 100k btc usd. Wrong. I feel like George Costanza. Do the opposite.

I suspect were going lower BUT I've been wrong more than I can count. I dca and I ape in on the dip. The only thing that I suspect a huge crash is regulations and the next shoe to drop. Another Luna like scenario. Tomorrow's CPI numbers.

In the short, a 2x on eth. Maybe if you pick the right alt. Way too much dry powder. Playing the waiting game. I expect a pull back tomorrow.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Curious if anybody evaluated the actual value of btc? Not the high which was a lot of free money but it's actual intrinsic value?

 

[Reyaj]

Alright wtf is the deal with this.. it keeps moving up and down but hasn't made significant gains in a long time...

What happened last year where it seemed like an inevitable climber to now where it's as uncertain as ever??

 

[VirtuousD]

Alright wtf is the deal with this.. it keeps moving up and down but hasn't made significant gains in a long time...

What happened last year where it seemed like an inevitable climber to now where it's as uncertain as ever??

War and inflation.

 

[Reyaj]

War and inflation.

Now probably would be a good time to load up. Stocks too right?

 

[Bingo-Player]

Alright wtf is the deal with this.. it keeps moving up and down but hasn't made significant gains in a long time...

What happened last year where it seemed like an inevitable climber to now where it's as uncertain as ever??

It has zero tangible value so for the
vast majority of crypto "tokens" to be worth anything the market needs a very healthy economy with a lot of positive sentiment or FOMO

Unfortunately now the global economy is nearing total collapse and sentiment for speculative tech projects that produce no tangible value is non existent the bottom has fallen out of the market

Remember last year they were saying Bitcoin was going to be the safest hedge against inflation there was a lot of if's but's and maybe's

Now a year later we know it is definitely not a hedge against inflation and operates more akin to a startup tech stock