Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[jaygreenb]

As for long term growth of BTC. I think with the sheer amount of ETF demand and this asset now essentially having gone "public" I think we could potentially see very strong growth over the next 2 halving cycles. Michael Saylor has referred to this as the "BTC gold rush" and believes this will last until the halving of 2032, by then there will be less than 1% of the total BTC remaining that has yet to be mined. I foresee a ton of money from these ETFs, investment funds, etc. just continuing to pour into this asset. As I've posted before, I think we might eventually get to a point where buying BTC on an exchange and being able to withdraw it and send to your own wallet is either no longer possible, basically you have to buy the ETF instead of the actual BTC itself.

A huge factor though is how governments will approach this asset. We have smaller nations, such as El Salvador and Bhutan, that are heavily invested in BTC. However, BTC is gaining a ton of attention in America now and been a big topic with this election cycle. The U.S government is actually a pretty big BTC whale, and I partially wonder if they will look to expand upon this.

Overall, I think there are so many cards lining up where we might see BTC vastly exceed our expectations in regards to price. I also believe that there will be certain alts that do quite well and become "blue chips" in this space, ETH is one now and I believe there a few others that have the potential for this.

It's crazy to think where things were just about a year ago, where we were still under 30k. I think up through the fall of 2023 was really the last opportunity for 99% of people to ever be able to own 1 BTC. Now owning just .1 BTC is slowly becoming a difficult thing for most people in America, as almost 7k is a lot of money.

At this point, I look at BTC and as a very low risk lay up. Not many opportunities in a lifetime to have such a asymmetric low risk bet. Will be interesting to see how govts all react to it, in the end though, if they try to fight it they will be shooting themselves in the foot while the rest of the world passes them by. I started using a multi sig service, unchained, this year to get all my security and inheritance in order. Got to treat this like a bitcoin will be worth 1m+ one day. You may very well be right in terms of price far exceeding expectations, I try to temper those expectations just so I do not waste my entire day dreaming lol As far as Bitcoin and alts, on a very simplistic view, I look at Bitcoin as the open protocol of the entire internet and everything else as a tech company in terms of relevance.

 

[Reincarnated]

As for where we are now, it's honestly been a very long and grueling consolidation phase, basically lasting from late March of 2024 up to now as I'm writing this. Alts are still dirt cheap, but I don't think we really have that much longer before we start seeing things heat up again. The big factor right now is the uncertainty around the election, earlier it was more about the FED not cutting and also labor market conditions. I think we will see a big move within the next 2-3 months, it will seemingly come out of nowhere.

Granted I don't know the asset class very well, but my speculation on price movement at least in BTC during 2024 is that credit spreads reaching their tightest point since 2007 has probably brought a healthy number of institutional shops who would traditionally focus on speculative fixed income into the mix, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of risk premium. I only have anecdotal evidence from one guy, but I imagine some other shops have probably seen regulatory hurdles being overcome as a green light. I'd imagine if there's any truth to that, you might see some weakness in BTC into 2025 if spreads move back towards their 5/10 year averages.

 

[BaronOfHair]

There in the cubicle next to The Vampire Lovers

 

[sangheilios]

Granted I don't know the asset class very well, but my speculation on price movement at least in BTC during 2024 is that credit spreads reaching their tightest point since 2007 has probably brought a healthy number of institutional shops who would traditionally focus on speculative fixed income into the mix, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of risk premium. I only have anecdotal evidence from one guy, but I imagine some other shops have probably seen regulatory hurdles being overcome as a green light. I'd imagine if there's any truth to that, you might see some weakness in BTC into 2025 if spreads move back towards their 5/10 year averages.

The price of BTC historically heavily correlates with the BTC halving event, which takes place roughly every 4 years. Simple concept that the rate of recently mined BTC coming to the market is "halved", just a decrease in new supply. However, there also is a heavy correlation to the U.S elections, which the business cycles and interest rates, etc. are heavily correlated to as well. Now, this could all just be a coincidence, but these are the big factors to consider.

Shorter term price action though is very different and not really something I concern myself with. This year it's pretty simple though, huge amounts of hype when the ETFs were launched, things get overheated and naturally a cool off commences. However, there was a ton of speculation that the FED was going to start cutting rates in April or May, so the markets more or less held on. Instead, they kept rates steady and this sent the market slowly spiraling down, each month with each FED meeting you can see this. In August the labor market showed that unemployment rates were rapidly increasing, which sent a big drop in BTC due to fears of a recession. BTC dropped below 50k and ETH below 2k, much lower than they should be, but they rapidly rebounded but since this we've mostly been range bound. Lately, I believe that a lot of the boringness of the market is due to uncertainty around the elections and also lingering fears of a potential recession.

 

[Solomon]

, I believe that a lot of the boringness of the market is due to uncertainty around the elections and also lingering fears of a potential recession.

Markets for the last 3.5 months have been boring AF, so boring In fact, the last few weeks I stopped paying attention (when I say pay attention I'm talking about looking at the charts every 15 minutes, it's now every 4-8 hours at best, yes I'm that obsessed lol) Which is a great personal indicator for me, cause last time that happened was 10/21/2023 and the markets pumped caught me off guard cause I was to busy watching Love is blind but today is actually starting of decent Solana has done well finally able to take some profit on that again and Trump memecoins are doing amazing for me as well. I don't see any major pumps until December/Jan the earliest but I could be wrong, this market this year has been more of a consolidation so I don't expect crazy movements until next year, but only the most high knows. I wouldn't be shocked if there was a crash starting 11/05/2024 nothing after 2022(LUNA/FTX crash) really shocks me anymore

Toodles

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Send it

 

[FlirtLife]

... I was to busy watching Love is blind ...

Season 7 reunion episode drops tomorrow.

The price of BTC historically heavily correlates with the BTC halving event, which takes place roughly every 4 years.

If you look at the 2020 halving, and the S&P 500, the price of BTC is more related to stocks than the halving. The low for BTC was in March - the same as the stock market. The month after the halving, the market didn't move much - and BTC fell (June 2020). As the market surged, BTC's price surged... but both took a pause in September 2020. If you look at price moves in 2020, the S&P 500 mattered more than the halving.

In 2022, both the S&P 500 and BTC crashed together. The biggest risk to BTC, in my view, is a stock market crash. Since the S&P 500 is overpriced right now, that risk seems elevated.

 

[sangheilios]

Season 7 reunion episode drops tomorrow.



If you look at the 2020 halving, and the S&P 500, the price of BTC is more related to stocks than the halving. The low for BTC was in March - the same as the stock market. The month after the halving, the market didn't move much - and BTC fell (June 2020). As the market surged, BTC's price surged... but both took a pause in September 2020. If you look at price moves in 2020, the S&P 500 mattered more than the halving.

In 2022, both the S&P 500 and BTC crashed together. The biggest risk to BTC, in my view, is a stock market crash. Since the S&P 500 is overpriced right now, that risk seems elevated.

What you missed though was that I also mentioned it's heavily correlated to the business cycle, interest rate cuts/hikes, etc. The S&P 500 is also based around the business cycle, which things like the U.S election cycle also correlate. There's a clear pattern with BTC that you can see going over several halving cycles, there's no real denying this. BTC is ultimately what ends up driving the rest of the broader crypto market. I am also of the belief that alts are heavily based around the FED cycles, basically when QE takes place is when they run hard and during QT is when they lag compared to BTC. Essentially, during tighter periods of the business cycle investors flock to safety, so things like gold or in this case BTC, stable coins, etc.

Everything is pointing to a strong crypto market going into next year. The FED is now beginning to cut rates and increase money supply, which it hasn't done yet. We also have institutions flooding the market into BTC AND ETH now. Retail is still absent from the space as well. Once things get moving, I expect a huge amount of FOMO, similar to what happened Q1 of this year but on a much bigger scale. This extra liquidity is going to find it's way to BTC and ETH, which will then spill into alts.

Shorter term, I don't really concern myself over this because it's impossible to predict.

I think the biggest danger is the potential for a 2nd wave of inflation within the next few years. We could see the FED aggressively raise interest rates like they did in 2022 if things get way too overheated. We'll just rinse and repeat what we've experience the last 2 1/2 years.

Either way, if you are invested at all things are looking very good over the next 6-12 months or so.

 

[jaygreenb]

What you missed though was that I also mentioned it's heavily correlated to the business cycle, interest rate cuts/hikes, etc. The S&P 500 is also based around the business cycle, which things like the U.S election cycle also correlate. There's a clear pattern with BTC that you can see going over several halving cycles, there's no real denying this. BTC is ultimately what ends up driving the rest of the broader crypto market. I am also of the belief that alts are heavily based around the FED cycles, basically when QE takes place is when they run hard and during QT is when they lag compared to BTC. Essentially, during tighter periods of the business cycle investors flock to safety, so things like gold or in this case BTC, stable coins, etc.

Everything is pointing to a strong crypto market going into next year. The FED is now beginning to cut rates and increase money supply, which it hasn't done yet. We also have institutions flooding the market into BTC AND ETH now. Retail is still absent from the space as well. Once things get moving, I expect a huge amount of FOMO, similar to what happened Q1 of this year but on a much bigger scale. This extra liquidity is going to find it's way to BTC and ETH, which will then spill into alts.

Shorter term, I don't really concern myself over this because it's impossible to predict.

I think the biggest danger is the potential for a 2nd wave of inflation within the next few years. We could see the FED aggressively raise interest rates like they did in 2022 if things get way too overheated. We'll just rinse and repeat what we've experience the last 2 1/2 years.

Either way, if you are invested at all things are looking very good over the next 6-12 months or so.

Right, you will drive yourself nuts worrying about short term price action and the million variables that are impossible to predict. The trend is your friend, adoption growing exponentially, fiat long term trend is always to devalue, avoid leverage and be patient. Lay up.

 

[sangheilios]

Right, you will drive yourself nuts worrying about short term price action and the million variables that are impossible to predict. The trend is your friend, adoption growing exponentially, fiat long term trend is always to devalue, avoid leverage and be patient. Lay up.

There's some interesting stuff I saw recently about the BRICS nations looking to go to BTC and expanding upon their BTC mining. The next several years is going to be huge.

 

[jaygreenb]

There's some interesting stuff I saw recently about the BRICS nations looking to go to BTC and expanding upon their BTC mining. The next several years is going to be huge.

It just makes sense on so many levels for these countries to integrate it into trade and their financial systems, in my opinion it is really just matter of time for them to gain understanding and acceptance. It is so much more functional than gold in that area and especially for smaller countries that do not have the military might to secure a gold hoard. It really does feel like there is a massive shift happening though of awareness, Fun times ahead.

 

[FlirtLife]

What you missed though was that I also mentioned it's heavily correlated to the business cycle, interest rate cuts/hikes, etc. The S&P 500 is also based around the business cycle, which things like the U.S election cycle also correlate.

I didn't miss that - I disagree with it. Business cycles occur every 5-6 years, which means any moves within a single year aren't explained by it. Same with interest rates, which were near zero for most of 2010-2019, while Bitcoin crashed and recovered repeatedly. The things you point to for driving BTC's price move too slowly to explain it.

The S&P 500 dropped as the Fed hiked interest rates quickly. The S&P 500 already captures the impact of interest rate hikes - you don't need to track interest rate hikes separately. If you believe business cycles end in a crash, again that's represented by the S&P 500. But in addition to those things, when Covid-19 hits the U.S. for the first time ever, both the S&P 500 and BTC crash. Interest rates and the business cycle don't explain that at all - only comparing to a stock index, like the S&P 500, captures that.

There's a clear pattern with BTC that you can see going over several halving cycles, there's no real denying this.

You seem to be ignoring my example of 2020. BTC crashed in March 2020, when the S&P 500 crashed. For a month after the mid-May 2020 BTC halving, BTC's price went nowhere. My claims are backed by data - by what happened. You keep making claims without data.

 

[jaygreenb]

I didn't miss that - I disagree with it. Business cycles occur every 5-6 years, which means any moves within a single year aren't explained by it. Same with interest rates, which were near zero for most of 2010-2019, while Bitcoin crashed and recovered repeatedly. The things you point to for driving BTC's price move too slowly to explain it.

The S&P 500 dropped as the Fed hiked interest rates quickly. The S&P 500 already captures the impact of interest rate hikes - you don't need to track interest rate hikes separately. If you believe business cycles end in a crash, again that's represented by the S&P 500. But in addition to those things, when Covid-19 hits the U.S. for the first time ever, both the S&P 500 and BTC crash. Interest rates and the business cycle don't explain that at all - only comparing to a stock index, like the S&P 500, captures that.



You seem to be ignoring my example of 2020. BTC crashed in March 2020, when the S&P 500 crashed. For a month after the mid-May 2020 BTC halving, BTC's price went nowhere. My claims are backed by data - by what happened. You keep making claims without data.

This is an interesting read on some of what you mentioned

Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer

This research piece on the correlation between measures of liquidity and the price of Bitcoin was compiled and written by Sam Callahan, and commissioned and advised by Lyn Alden. Published: September 2024 Executive Summary Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any...

www.lynalden.com

 

[sangheilios]

I didn't miss that - I disagree with it. Business cycles occur every 5-6 years, which means any moves within a single year aren't explained by it. Same with interest rates, which were near zero for most of 2010-2019, while Bitcoin crashed and recovered repeatedly. The things you point to for driving BTC's price move too slowly to explain it.

The S&P 500 dropped as the Fed hiked interest rates quickly. The S&P 500 already captures the impact of interest rate hikes - you don't need to track interest rate hikes separately. If you believe business cycles end in a crash, again that's represented by the S&P 500. But in addition to those things, when Covid-19 hits the U.S. for the first time ever, both the S&P 500 and BTC crash. Interest rates and the business cycle don't explain that at all - only comparing to a stock index, like the S&P 500, captures that.



You seem to be ignoring my example of 2020. BTC crashed in March 2020, when the S&P 500 crashed. For a month after the mid-May 2020 BTC halving, BTC's price went nowhere. My claims are backed by data - by what happened. You keep making claims without data.

You don't fully understand the dynamics of how the crypto market moves. The patten is NOT that the price of BTC immediately rushes at the halving, instead the pattern is that it will begin to make new all time highs AND enter into a bull run. It takes time for this change in new supply to have a broader effect on the market. Around the time of the halving you will see that things may start heating up again, we saw this in 2020 BEFORE COVID and Q1 of this year.

As for COVID crash of March 2020, that was a Black Swan event that caused mass panic and fear, everything sold off lol. I do not place any real importance on this, as it's an anomaly. February/early March of that year BTC was trading around 10k, after it had tanked to 7k and ETH was at $100. IF the lockdowns never happened we never would have had that massive candle to 3k and the market probably would have been boring for most of 2020, similar to what we've had this year.

The market also goes through periods of overvaluation and undervaluation, with the long-term trend where it goes higher. This is still the early phase of an emerging asset class, you can't compare it to the typical stock market where moves of 10%+ are massive. However, within a couple more halving cycles this volatility will greatly diminish, and I expect it to perform more like a mainstream asset. In fact, I actually think at this point with BTC specifically we might actually be there, I'm expecting a high around 120-150k this cycle and where we tank to 50-60k or so.

I don't concern myself with short term moves. Earlier this year with every FED meeting where they kept rates high there was a sell off, meanwhile all the speculators were expecting there to be cuts in April or May. I'm not saying that was the cause, but there was an interesting pattern there. Again, I don't really concern myself with the shorter term noise, which is all it is. If you buy and hold BTC and give it a long enough of a time window you will do well. The problem is when people buy in with the expectation of making massive gains in a relatively short period of time. Alts basically underperform compared to BTC for 3 of the 4 years of a given BTC cycle. You basically buy when everything has tanked, give it time and then exit when everyone is talking about it lol.

You can follow alt-BTC pairs and see that they are bottoming out now compared to BTC. Again, I don't focus on exact timing of things but the pattern is there.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I didn't miss that - I disagree with it. Business cycles occur every 5-6 years, which means any moves within a single year aren't explained by it. Same with interest rates, which were near zero for most of 2010-2019, while Bitcoin crashed and recovered repeatedly. The things you point to for driving BTC's price move too slowly to explain it.

The S&P 500 dropped as the Fed hiked interest rates quickly. The S&P 500 already captures the impact of interest rate hikes - you don't need to track interest rate hikes separately. If you believe business cycles end in a crash, again that's represented by the S&P 500. But in addition to those things, when Covid-19 hits the U.S. for the first time ever, both the S&P 500 and BTC crash. Interest rates and the business cycle don't explain that at all - only comparing to a stock index, like the S&P 500, captures that.



You seem to be ignoring my example of 2020. BTC crashed in March 2020, when the S&P 500 crashed. For a month after the mid-May 2020 BTC halving, BTC's price went nowhere. My claims are backed by data - by what happened. You keep making claims without data.

That isn't how it actually works with the halving cycles.

Many times the halving is short term bearish as some of the miners have to sell BTC since they are now getting less BTC in mining rewards than before and they have to pay for maintenance, energy costs, expenses, etc.

Also many times the market becomes over bought pre-halving and after the halving it ends up correcting itself for a few months.

There can also be some uncertainty in the market as these new market dynamics comes into play which can make some investors take profits and look to buy lower since traditionally post halving has been short term bearish recently.

Additionally some miners might stop mining as it becomes less profitable for them to do so which causes BTC's network hashrate to drop, sometimes significantly.

But as we are now witnessing again in the medium to long term, the halvings prove to be bullish over that time frame.

 

[FlirtLife]

Many times the halving is short term bearish as some of the miners have to sell BTC since they are now getting less BTC in mining rewards than before and they have to pay for maintenance, energy costs, expenses, etc.

Also many times the market becomes over bought pre-halving and after the halving it ends up correcting itself for a few months.

Are you saying Bitcoin halvings are a bad year to invest in Bitcoin? ("overbought" before a halving, and "short term bearish" after a halving)

But as we are now witnessing again in the medium to long term, the halvings prove to be bullish over that time frame.

Long term treasury bonds are 20 or 30 years. Bitcoin hasn't existed that long. The mainstream first heard of Bitcoin back in 2014, after the Mt Gox hack. At best, Bitcoin has existed for one medium term cycle, with medium term treasury bonds being 7-10 years. I don't follow how you can witness "again" something that has only happened once over the medium term (let alone not existing long term).

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Are you saying Bitcoin halvings are a bad year to invest in Bitcoin? ("overbought" before a halving, and "short term bearish" after a halving)



Long term treasury bonds are 20 or 30 years. Bitcoin hasn't existed that long. The mainstream first heard of Bitcoin back in 2014, after the Mt Gox hack. At best, Bitcoin has existed for one medium term cycle, with medium term treasury bonds being 7-10 years. I don't follow how you can witness "again" something that has only happened once over the medium term (let alone not existing long term).

No it's a great time to invest...wait for the price to drop after the halving and look for bottoming signs(aka drop to the "Golden Pocket" area of the Fibonacci) and then buy. Price usually rebounds strongly within 3-6 months.

Do the ROI on Bitcoin since it's inception versus literally anything.

Over the last decade BTC's ROI has been something absurd like 15,000%. Gold has been single digits and was negative for a long time and the stock market is under 300%.

People need to stop this nonsense. At what point do actual results matter?

Apparently never for some.

A treasury bond? Give me a break.

 

[jaygreenb]

Are you saying Bitcoin halvings are a bad year to invest in Bitcoin? ("overbought" before a halving, and "short term bearish" after a halving)



Long term treasury bonds are 20 or 30 years. Bitcoin hasn't existed that long. The mainstream first heard of Bitcoin back in 2014, after the Mt Gox hack. At best, Bitcoin has existed for one medium term cycle, with medium term treasury bonds being 7-10 years. I don't follow how you can witness "again" something that has only happened once over the medium term (let alone not existing long term).

Flirtlife, I believe I heard you say you work in traditional finance. That is the world I came from, got my degree in econ, worked at State street and Legg Mason in my 20s. Respectfully, you can't apply traditional finance metrics to this asset. This is a big reason why retail got such a head start on wall street, it is a different paradigm with different metrics. Unless you have spent probably 50-100hrs+ learning about this asset it is tough to wrap your head around because you are using a traditional framework for how it works and what to focus on. This is a great course to start if you are interested

PRDV151: Bitcoin for Everybody | Saylor Academy | Saylor Academy

learn.saylor.org

 

[FlirtLife]

No it's a great time to invest...wait for the price to drop after the halving and look for bottoming signs(aka drop to the "Golden Pocket" area of the Fibonacci) and then buy. Price usually rebounds strongly within 3-6 months.

A website claimed the following, which is more than I know about the subject:
"The golden pocket in trading refers to the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8%."

After a halving, your approach is to buy after a 38.2% or 61.8% drop within 3-6 months, then HODL. The 2020 halving occurred on May 11, which Yahoo shows closed at $8600/BTC. For the rest of the year, it never went below that point, tripling by year end to $29,000/BTC. Did I miss something, or did this approach not work in 2020?

Perhaps you can mention a time where it worked, and the key drop / buy-in.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Looking good for takeoff...big wick on the daily yesterday, almost a perfect pullback to push up and thru the ATH from here.