Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[sangheilios]

oh yeah, crypto elicits typical market emotions on steroids lol Then throw in the fact many participants have minimal life and investing experience, it is the perfect ****tail to get wrecked. I know a lot of stories of people getting washed out in 18/19, can't imagine the type of regret they are living with now.

Personally, I try to keep things simple and stick to assets I am comfortable holding a minimum of 5-10yrs and that I have a high level of understanding and conviction in. I think a big part of people capitulating is they don't actually understand what it is and why they hold it outside of the price action. You aren't going to get rich overnight with bitcoin but reality is 99% of people are going to fail and get wrecked chasing those 1000x in a few months returns. Crypto has completely deluded people on the likelihood of making and keeping those gains when in reality if you could do 10%+ historically you were doing really well. I would be thrilled doing 20%+ low risk compounded yearly return with bitcoin over the next decade, and I think that is pretty reasonable and conservative. Most people would do incredible if they could just be patient and consistent over the next 10yrs. This is that CAGR starting from every year.


For easier calculations end up 2024 at around the 75.000$ mark. So here are the average yearly returns since:

Since 2010 to end of 2024 is 211% annually.

Since 2011 to end of 2024 is 143% annually.

Since 2012 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.

Since 2013 to end of 2024 is 105% annually.

Since 2014 to end of 2024 is 52% annually.

Since 2015 to end of 2024 is 72,5% annually.

Since 2016 to end of 2024 is 77% annually.

Since 2017 to end of 2024 is 72% annually.

Since 2018 to end of 2024 is 27% annually.

Since 2019 to end of 2024 is 65% annually.

Since 2020 to end of 2024 is 59% annually.

Since 2021 to end of 2024 is 26% annually.

Since 2022 to end of 2024 is 15% annually.

Since 2023 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.

Yeah, I can totally imagine the feelings people who bought in fairly early had that ended up selling, only to see where things have been since 2021.

With this said, we have to remember that BTC was this insanely speculative asset until the bull market of 2017. Prior to this time period it was still a very tiny market and not many people were aware of it. If you think it is volatile now, imagine what it was like way back in 2016 and earlier. 2017 was when it really started attracting a ton of attention and became more well known with the broader public, it was somewhere around the last few months of that year I first started hearing about it and I started investing spring of 2018.

The 2018 bear market was brutal and I think where a lot of earlier retail investors basically got wrecked and totally exited. 2019-2020 was honestly very volatile, and I can see how it scared a lot of people off. However, the 2021 bull market was what really got the attention from big money players, institutions, governments, etc. Sure, we had the collapse of FTX and all the other nonsense in 2022, but players like Blackrock were more or less lining things up for their ETFs, which launched just a little over a year after all of this.

As for where we are now, it's honestly been a very long and grueling consolidation phase, basically lasting from late March of 2024 up to now as I'm writing this. Alts are still dirt cheap, but I don't think we really have that much longer before we start seeing things heat up again. The big factor right now is the uncertainty around the election, earlier it was more about the FED not cutting and also labor market conditions. I think we will see a big move within the next 2-3 months, it will seemingly come out of nowhere.

 

[sangheilios]

oh yeah, crypto elicits typical market emotions on steroids lol Then throw in the fact many participants have minimal life and investing experience, it is the perfect ****tail to get wrecked. I know a lot of stories of people getting washed out in 18/19, can't imagine the type of regret they are living with now.

Personally, I try to keep things simple and stick to assets I am comfortable holding a minimum of 5-10yrs and that I have a high level of understanding and conviction in. I think a big part of people capitulating is they don't actually understand what it is and why they hold it outside of the price action. You aren't going to get rich overnight with bitcoin but reality is 99% of people are going to fail and get wrecked chasing those 1000x in a few months returns. Crypto has completely deluded people on the likelihood of making and keeping those gains when in reality if you could do 10%+ historically you were doing really well. I would be thrilled doing 20%+ low risk compounded yearly return with bitcoin over the next decade, and I think that is pretty reasonable and conservative. Most people would do incredible if they could just be patient and consistent over the next 10yrs. This is that CAGR starting from every year.


For easier calculations end up 2024 at around the 75.000$ mark. So here are the average yearly returns since:

Since 2010 to end of 2024 is 211% annually.

Since 2011 to end of 2024 is 143% annually.

Since 2012 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.

Since 2013 to end of 2024 is 105% annually.

Since 2014 to end of 2024 is 52% annually.

Since 2015 to end of 2024 is 72,5% annually.

Since 2016 to end of 2024 is 77% annually.

Since 2017 to end of 2024 is 72% annually.

Since 2018 to end of 2024 is 27% annually.

Since 2019 to end of 2024 is 65% annually.

Since 2020 to end of 2024 is 59% annually.

Since 2021 to end of 2024 is 26% annually.

Since 2022 to end of 2024 is 15% annually.

Since 2023 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.

As for long term growth of BTC. I think with the sheer amount of ETF demand and this asset now essentially having gone "public" I think we could potentially see very strong growth over the next 2 halving cycles. Michael Saylor has referred to this as the "BTC gold rush" and believes this will last until the halving of 2032, by then there will be less than 1% of the total BTC remaining that has yet to be mined. I foresee a ton of money from these ETFs, investment funds, etc. just continuing to pour into this asset. As I've posted before, I think we might eventually get to a point where buying BTC on an exchange and being able to withdraw it and send to your own wallet is either no longer possible, basically you have to buy the ETF instead of the actual BTC itself.

A huge factor though is how governments will approach this asset. We have smaller nations, such as El Salvador and Bhutan, that are heavily invested in BTC. However, BTC is gaining a ton of attention in America now and been a big topic with this election cycle. The U.S government is actually a pretty big BTC whale, and I partially wonder if they will look to expand upon this.

Overall, I think there are so many cards lining up where we might see BTC vastly exceed our expectations in regards to price. I also believe that there will be certain alts that do quite well and become "blue chips" in this space, ETH is one now and I believe there a few others that have the potential for this.

It's crazy to think where things were just about a year ago, where we were still under 30k. I think up through the fall of 2023 was really the last opportunity for 99% of people to ever be able to own 1 BTC. Now owning just .1 BTC is slowly becoming a difficult thing for most people in America, as almost 7k is a lot of money.

 

[jaygreenb]

As for long term growth of BTC. I think with the sheer amount of ETF demand and this asset now essentially having gone "public" I think we could potentially see very strong growth over the next 2 halving cycles. Michael Saylor has referred to this as the "BTC gold rush" and believes this will last until the halving of 2032, by then there will be less than 1% of the total BTC remaining that has yet to be mined. I foresee a ton of money from these ETFs, investment funds, etc. just continuing to pour into this asset. As I've posted before, I think we might eventually get to a point where buying BTC on an exchange and being able to withdraw it and send to your own wallet is either no longer possible, basically you have to buy the ETF instead of the actual BTC itself.

A huge factor though is how governments will approach this asset. We have smaller nations, such as El Salvador and Bhutan, that are heavily invested in BTC. However, BTC is gaining a ton of attention in America now and been a big topic with this election cycle. The U.S government is actually a pretty big BTC whale, and I partially wonder if they will look to expand upon this.

Overall, I think there are so many cards lining up where we might see BTC vastly exceed our expectations in regards to price. I also believe that there will be certain alts that do quite well and become "blue chips" in this space, ETH is one now and I believe there a few others that have the potential for this.

It's crazy to think where things were just about a year ago, where we were still under 30k. I think up through the fall of 2023 was really the last opportunity for 99% of people to ever be able to own 1 BTC. Now owning just .1 BTC is slowly becoming a difficult thing for most people in America, as almost 7k is a lot of money.

At this point, I look at BTC and as a very low risk lay up. Not many opportunities in a lifetime to have such a asymmetric low risk bet. Will be interesting to see how govts all react to it, in the end though, if they try to fight it they will be shooting themselves in the foot while the rest of the world passes them by. I started using a multi sig service, unchained, this year to get all my security and inheritance in order. Got to treat this like a bitcoin will be worth 1m+ one day. You may very well be right in terms of price far exceeding expectations, I try to temper those expectations just so I do not waste my entire day dreaming lol As far as Bitcoin and alts, on a very simplistic view, I look at Bitcoin as the open protocol of the entire internet and everything else as a tech company in terms of relevance.

 

[Reincarnated]

As for where we are now, it's honestly been a very long and grueling consolidation phase, basically lasting from late March of 2024 up to now as I'm writing this. Alts are still dirt cheap, but I don't think we really have that much longer before we start seeing things heat up again. The big factor right now is the uncertainty around the election, earlier it was more about the FED not cutting and also labor market conditions. I think we will see a big move within the next 2-3 months, it will seemingly come out of nowhere.

Granted I don't know the asset class very well, but my speculation on price movement at least in BTC during 2024 is that credit spreads reaching their tightest point since 2007 has probably brought a healthy number of institutional shops who would traditionally focus on speculative fixed income into the mix, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of risk premium. I only have anecdotal evidence from one guy, but I imagine some other shops have probably seen regulatory hurdles being overcome as a green light. I'd imagine if there's any truth to that, you might see some weakness in BTC into 2025 if spreads move back towards their 5/10 year averages.

 

[BaronOfHair]

There in the cubicle next to The Vampire Lovers

 

[sangheilios]

Granted I don't know the asset class very well, but my speculation on price movement at least in BTC during 2024 is that credit spreads reaching their tightest point since 2007 has probably brought a healthy number of institutional shops who would traditionally focus on speculative fixed income into the mix, trying to squeeze a little bit more out of risk premium. I only have anecdotal evidence from one guy, but I imagine some other shops have probably seen regulatory hurdles being overcome as a green light. I'd imagine if there's any truth to that, you might see some weakness in BTC into 2025 if spreads move back towards their 5/10 year averages.

The price of BTC historically heavily correlates with the BTC halving event, which takes place roughly every 4 years. Simple concept that the rate of recently mined BTC coming to the market is "halved", just a decrease in new supply. However, there also is a heavy correlation to the U.S elections, which the business cycles and interest rates, etc. are heavily correlated to as well. Now, this could all just be a coincidence, but these are the big factors to consider.

Shorter term price action though is very different and not really something I concern myself with. This year it's pretty simple though, huge amounts of hype when the ETFs were launched, things get overheated and naturally a cool off commences. However, there was a ton of speculation that the FED was going to start cutting rates in April or May, so the markets more or less held on. Instead, they kept rates steady and this sent the market slowly spiraling down, each month with each FED meeting you can see this. In August the labor market showed that unemployment rates were rapidly increasing, which sent a big drop in BTC due to fears of a recession. BTC dropped below 50k and ETH below 2k, much lower than they should be, but they rapidly rebounded but since this we've mostly been range bound. Lately, I believe that a lot of the boringness of the market is due to uncertainty around the elections and also lingering fears of a potential recession.

 

[Solomon]

, I believe that a lot of the boringness of the market is due to uncertainty around the elections and also lingering fears of a potential recession.

Markets for the last 3.5 months have been boring AF, so boring In fact, the last few weeks I stopped paying attention (when I say pay attention I'm talking about looking at the charts every 15 minutes, it's now every 4-8 hours at best, yes I'm that obsessed lol) Which is a great personal indicator for me, cause last time that happened was 10/21/2023 and the markets pumped caught me off guard cause I was to busy watching Love is blind but today is actually starting of decent Solana has done well finally able to take some profit on that again and Trump memecoins are doing amazing for me as well. I don't see any major pumps until December/Jan the earliest but I could be wrong, this market this year has been more of a consolidation so I don't expect crazy movements until next year, but only the most high knows. I wouldn't be shocked if there was a crash starting 11/05/2024 nothing after 2022(LUNA/FTX crash) really shocks me anymore

Toodles