sangheilios
Master Don Juan
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2018
- Messages
- 2,648
- Reaction score
- 2,763
- Age
- 34
Yeah, I can totally imagine the feelings people who bought in fairly early had that ended up selling, only to see where things have been since 2021.oh yeah, crypto elicits typical market emotions on steroids lol Then throw in the fact many participants have minimal life and investing experience, it is the perfect ****tail to get wrecked. I know a lot of stories of people getting washed out in 18/19, can't imagine the type of regret they are living with now.
Personally, I try to keep things simple and stick to assets I am comfortable holding a minimum of 5-10yrs and that I have a high level of understanding and conviction in. I think a big part of people capitulating is they don't actually understand what it is and why they hold it outside of the price action. You aren't going to get rich overnight with bitcoin but reality is 99% of people are going to fail and get wrecked chasing those 1000x in a few months returns. Crypto has completely deluded people on the likelihood of making and keeping those gains when in reality if you could do 10%+ historically you were doing really well. I would be thrilled doing 20%+ low risk compounded yearly return with bitcoin over the next decade, and I think that is pretty reasonable and conservative. Most people would do incredible if they could just be patient and consistent over the next 10yrs. This is that CAGR starting from every year.
For easier calculations end up 2024 at around the 75.000$ mark. So here are the average yearly returns since:
Since 2010 to end of 2024 is 211% annually.
Since 2011 to end of 2024 is 143% annually.
Since 2012 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.
Since 2013 to end of 2024 is 105% annually.
Since 2014 to end of 2024 is 52% annually.
Since 2015 to end of 2024 is 72,5% annually.
Since 2016 to end of 2024 is 77% annually.
Since 2017 to end of 2024 is 72% annually.
Since 2018 to end of 2024 is 27% annually.
Since 2019 to end of 2024 is 65% annually.
Since 2020 to end of 2024 is 59% annually.
Since 2021 to end of 2024 is 26% annually.
Since 2022 to end of 2024 is 15% annually.
Since 2023 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.
With this said, we have to remember that BTC was this insanely speculative asset until the bull market of 2017. Prior to this time period it was still a very tiny market and not many people were aware of it. If you think it is volatile now, imagine what it was like way back in 2016 and earlier. 2017 was when it really started attracting a ton of attention and became more well known with the broader public, it was somewhere around the last few months of that year I first started hearing about it and I started investing spring of 2018.
The 2018 bear market was brutal and I think where a lot of earlier retail investors basically got wrecked and totally exited. 2019-2020 was honestly very volatile, and I can see how it scared a lot of people off. However, the 2021 bull market was what really got the attention from big money players, institutions, governments, etc. Sure, we had the collapse of FTX and all the other nonsense in 2022, but players like Blackrock were more or less lining things up for their ETFs, which launched just a little over a year after all of this.
As for where we are now, it's honestly been a very long and grueling consolidation phase, basically lasting from late March of 2024 up to now as I'm writing this. Alts are still dirt cheap, but I don't think we really have that much longer before we start seeing things heat up again. The big factor right now is the uncertainty around the election, earlier it was more about the FED not cutting and also labor market conditions. I think we will see a big move within the next 2-3 months, it will seemingly come out of nowhere.