U.S. vs. China

[typical]

Let me just rip you guys up with some brief history, the Americans in this day and age are much like to what 2000 years ago the romans were like, people had beaten them in early wars like the Americans have lost in Nam etc. But they (right now) cant be touched.

But at this point in time there isn't a country that can take out the yanks, even if they massed up everyone together, the US if they were to strike with nukes would target all known nuclear facilities any other country has. So first send in small crack troops take out nuclear counter measures then launch own nukes and rape country, think about it using some logic, they wont just launch nukes for the sake of winning a war. They may have a dimwit leader but the rest of the people know what they are doing.

Now people everywhere want to see the fall of the Americans blah blah blah, well news flash people it wont happen what you'll most likely get is the the a American coalition vs a European coalition vs a Asian coalition, three super powers fighting for financial and military dominance in a peaceful way with cold war tactics, while the rest of the world sits back like usual waiting for someone to lose or win so we can go back to making money and doing our thing.

But then again aliens could attack and OMG that would be uber cool LOL

 

[Cash]

History

Powers rise and invariably fall. America has been around for about two hundred years and by every measure seems to be in decline. The past is the best predictor of the future. (I give America about another one hundred years before it collapses into complete irrelevancy and is another Russia.)

The eventual (but coming no time soon) fall of US gobal supremacy is not only inevitable but essential, for the good of America and the wider world. This eventual fate does not necessarily mean being replaced with any one individual ecomonic or military powerhouse, but sinking in to the process of a heating globalized climate of a world sure to be "100 years" from now.

As america is 'weakening' the world is weakening with it, (however unlikely that seems) thereby strengthening in unity, as gay as it sounds.

For now, it's a matter of keeping the world in check to fit with the American agenda, or shaping the rest of the world to meet US standards and conveniences. Why do you think US foreign policy is so agressive?

Russia's a different story, it's a mess and one of their biggest problems is population deline, currently at about 750,000 a year. In contrast, the US is projected to rise from 298 million now to 410 - 550 million by 2050.

Men

This is talked about all the time on this site. Masculinity is in decline. Whatever happened to courage and bravery?

So you think the feminization of man is only going on in America? It's everywhere.

Health.

America is practically the sickest and fattest of major industrialized countries. Just as one case in point, if you take the healthiest third of Americans, they compare worse than the sickest third of Brits, even despite the American obsession for medical care.

So? There's also a growing obesity trend in asia, mainly China. Steming Ironically enough from rapidly improving living standards/and fast-food culture: Translation: Globalization in action. But If all what you write is based on life in 100 years, obesity will not be an issue, thanks to advances in biotechnology, wherever those advances are made.

Economics

The ridiculous trade deficit. Jobs are shipping overseas. The US dollar is in decline. China is posed to soon take reign as the world's most powerful country.

Don't beileve the hype.

Education

American students don't give that much a hoot about science and it's science which propels societies to success. American colleges swarm with foreigners, particularly in the sciences. Meanwhile, the average American guy is more interested in boozing, getting stoned, and getting laid. There's this whole anti-intellectual climate in high schools and colleges.

Foreigners in these fields are being employed by american companies. It's not a one way street.

And by coincidence, just to toss this in, the New York Times just ran a story how the world's opinion of America is continuing to decline. I'm just saying.

People are fickle, and full of sh*t, one day they hate you, the next, they love you. F*ck them.

In short, come "100 years", expect a world of mass-migration, expect more international government influence (The UN), and expect a man from one side of the world to make his 30 min work journey to the other side of the world, as well as a whole lot of other unthinkable sh*t that will come with globalization in a modern world, because the world is getting smaller.

 

[Rovalier]

There might be more engineers in China. They are probably equal to most of the ones here, while working for less pay, no overtime and little work benefits. But you are forgetting one critical fact. Guess who controls their income and work in general?

Bingo.

Having skilled assets (specialized knowledge, like engineering or science) without a hint of general knowledge (business aptitude), ambition and leadership has little substance. Once more Chinese business leaders challenge American ones, that is when the tide of power will turn. My little theory.

As of right now the Western Educational System is becoming more and more feminized and that is not going to help cultivate a new crop of leaders for the future. While radical feminists are busily busting men for oppressing them, they have set their own "better and fairer" rules which are oppressing men. They are becoming the very thing they accuse men of being, the oppressors. Ironic isn't it?

 

[ShizamDaMan]

Honestly, I'd rather see the rest of the world come up to America's level rather than have America drop their standards. Yes there is room for improvement in US foriegn and domestic policy, but the fact is even the poorest people in major cities are obese, cause even they have resources to eat and live. America is the lone standing superpower left from the cold war, but it's time for the rest of the nations to improve to the point where we are all close to the same level.

Our poverty line is what a lot of 3rd world countries have as middle and upper class lines. With money comes power, and right now America controls the vast majority of it.

 

[Consent]

The education system is kind of weird. According to the latest Gallop poll, America is the only developed country in the world where almost half the population believes in Creationism. As for the rest, 36% believe in a god-induced-evolution, and only 13% believed in actual evolution. The article also said that these numbers have basically stayed exactly the same since the survey was started decades ago.

 

[American_Psycho]

History
Powers rise and invariably fall. America has been around for about two hundred years and by every measure seems to be in decline. The past is the best predictor of the future. (I give America about another one hundred years before it collapses into complete irrelevancy and is another Russia.)

This is the best point you make; it is impossible for a superpower to last forever. But you're also not making much of an argument there - saying that that America's power will decline within 100-200 years is almost certain, not a bold prediction. In any case, it's pointless for us to predict things hundreds of years in the future on such a grand scale, there are far too many variables to consider.

Men

This is talked about all the time on this site. Masculinity is in decline. Whatever happened to courage and bravery?

I'd like to see you go up to some Americans who have served multiple terms in Iraq and ask them where their courage and bravery is.

Health.

America is practically the sickest and fattest of major industrialized countries. Just as one case in point, if you take the healthiest third of Americans, they compare worse than the sickest third of Brits, even despite the American obsession for medical care.

Obesity is rising steadily in nearly all developed nations, not just America. Also, this "healthiest one-third" thing is extremely vague. How do you measure healthiness? I'd like to see some sources for this.

Economics

The ridiculous trade deficit. Jobs are shipping overseas. The US dollar is in decline. China is posed to soon take reign as the world's most powerful country.

China's per capita consumption and standards of living are still far below the U.S. China has many problems of their own. Seven of the world's 10 most polluted cities are in China.

Education

American students don't give that much a hoot about science and it's science which propels societies to success. American colleges swarm with foreigners, particularly in the sciences. Meanwhile, the average American guy is more interested in boozing, getting stoned, and getting laid. There's this whole anti-intellectual climate in high schools and colleges.

This is an illusion created by the fact that many more students attend college now than ever have in the past. America still has a strong core of intellectual elite, you just see more average and mediocre students attending college as well. And what does it tell you that the smartest foreign students come to America to pursue higher education? Naturally, many of them remain in America to work after graduation. This only helps the U.S. Maybe if you go to Southeastern Buttfvk State there is an "anti-intellectual climate" but at Harvard or Princeton or Stanford, not so much.

 

[SexPDX]

Deep Dish, good to have some conversations with the old hands on the board about some other topics.

Powers rise and invariably fall. America has been around for about two hundred years and by every measure seems to be in decline. The past is the best predictor of the future. (I give America about another one hundred years before it collapses into complete irrelevancy and is another Russia.)

Your comparison to Russia is a slippery slope fallacy because it assumes Russia to be irrelevant now, which is just not the case. The Goldman Sachs BRIC theory of emerging markets positions Russia and Brazil to be the largest suppliers of raw materials (and China and India the largest suppliers of manufactured goods) in the mid-century timetable. Although down the list a ways in proven reserves, Russia is the second largest supplier of oil and THE largest supplier of natural gas and wheat in the world today. From a strategical prospective, Russia has enough nukes to be relevant forever.

Economics

The ridiculous trade deficit. Jobs are shipping overseas. The US dollar is in decline. China is posed to soon take reign as the world's most powerful country.

The dollar had a NICE year in 2005, but I am nonetheless with you on the idea that it is probably in for a long term slide now. Let us not forget China's dependence on America, namely the fact that their employment growth is base on exports to the United States, which has forced them to undervalue their currency relative to ours by buying US treasury securities. Everyone loves to talk about how our deficit is being financed by China and we are dependent on them because of it but the plain reality that THEY HAVE NO CHOICE. Their purchases of the US treasury securies puts downward pressure on their currency, thereby allowing Chinese imports to continue to be attractive in the US market. China absolutely has to maintain GDP growth of 7% annualized just to keep enough people employed to stave off civil unrest.

I guarantee if China ever stopped buying US debt altogether the current regime would be out of power in two fiscal quarters and the country would be in chaos. Is the US deficit unsustainable? Maybe so but as a percentage of GDP, both the debt and deficit have been much higher. A largely undiscussed issue, however, is how sustainable is it what China is doing?

 

[SexPDX]

Come on, guys. I was hoping to spark up a new angle to the debate, instead this 66-reply thread falls silent???

 

[Le Parisien]

Come on, guys. I was hoping to spark up a new angle to the debate, instead this 66-reply thread falls silent???

You were quite right about China being extremely dependant on America for its exports, but your assessment is in my humble opinion a little too optimistic for the US.

Sure China for now is only the "factory of the world", but the Chinese are not stupid, they are moving up the food chain, real quickly.

For the moment, it's in China's interest to buy American treasury bonds, but stating that "I guarantee if China ever stopped buying US debt altogether the current regime would be out of power in two fiscal quarters and the country would be in chaos." is just belittling China's own strength.

Just like the US, China is a big country, its internal market is not negligible. Although for now, its potential is far from being fully exploited, and many people have the impression that China is just like Korea, a country that exclusively relies on export for its economic growth, only many years behind in terms of technology.
This is very far from the truth. Did you know that China now has the world's biggest market for cellphones? And this is only an example.

China's development will follow her own path, a combination of an export-model like the one followed by Korea, Taiwan and earlier by Japan, and an internal development model like the one that has existed in the USA for more than two centuries.

 

[Deep Dish]

Working on a response... Life is very busy...

 

[Microphone Fiend]

huh? China's team didnt even make it to the World Cup

 

[LowPlainsDrifter]

Honestly, I'd rather see the rest of the world come up to America's level rather than have America drop their standards.

I think this is inevitable.

Although it's hollowed out our middle class, shipping industrial jobs overseas has probably done more to bring up developing nations' standards of living than any amount of UN assistance, or foreign aid from the US.

Because of the outsourcing of these and many other jobs, India and China
are seeing dramatic wage inflation.

I see the future as this: First world nations continue to shed manufacturing and grunt-level knowledge work jobs. As they do this, wealth and technology are transferred first to SE/SW Asia. As these economies grow their labor costs rise. Basic manufacturing and knowledge work goes hunting again for cheap labor, and finds it in South America and Africa.

Eventually, the rest of the world (once again, SE/SW Asia first) catches or nearly catches up to N. American and Western European levels of innovation and management.

 

[djbr]

In short, come "100 years", expect a world of mass-migration, expect more international government influence (The UN), and expect a man from one side of the world to make his 30 min work journey to the other side of the world, as well as a whole lot of other unthinkable sh*t that will come with globalization in a modern world, because the world is getting smaller.

I don't know if I am the only one, but actually I think this "world getting smaller" thing sucks.

I love "far away" places.

 

[djbr]

A largely undiscussed issue, however, is how sustainable is it what China is doing?

That's a good question.

Time will come when people there will start to want some goddamn CASH for what they do. They earn so fvckin LITTLE !!!! You know, the JOB SECURITY stuff, employee unions...

Then the cost rises, and their ability to throw cheap stuff around the world decrease.

 

[Cash]

Interesting read on this.

http://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html

 

[Le Parisien]

Interesting read on this.

http://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html

I just read that.
It's basically a compilation of many commonly accepted ideas.

- I agree with the conclusion. According to my estimation, China won't be regarded as a superpower on par with the USA at least before 2050. But still, around 2050 China will be so influential that the US won't be able to do anything without bargaining with the Chinese, similar to the situation between the US and the EU in the economics/trade area, only with China it will concern EVERYTHING

- Most of the ideas depicted in your article are accurate, but many are tainted with typical American bias. I can give two examples to illustrate that.

1) Stating that China doesn't have any household names. First, they were merely talking about perceptions in the US. For example, contrary to the case in the US, even the well respected American brands such as Citigroup are NOT necessarily "household names" in many European countries. On the other hand, no one (especially in the US) ever heard about Lenovo until they bought the PC division of of IBM. Why? Because until very recently, they were only selling in Asia. In the high tec area, have you ever heard about HuaWei. Guys at Cisco are so scared of the competition that they somewhat successfully blocked HuaWei's entry into the American market thanks to their big horde of lawyers.

Sure for now, China is till weak on high tec side, and even moreso in the area of brand equity. But all this takes time. Just look at South Korea, now LG and Samsung are among the well known brands thanks to decades of buidling efforts on brand equity. China will probably need 15 to 20 years to reach this level, but eventually it's gonna happen.

2) About the US universities ranking among the best. Sure American universities are pretty good, myself I studied at Penn State for two years for a master's degree. But it's NOT good in the way some proud Americans think it is. What's wonderful is the equipment its top-notch partly thanks to the big-azz tuitions we students pay, and the USA is so rich and dynamic that it's NOT about what you learn or at which university you learn, it's about the fact that you are learning at an AMERICAN university. To be honest, classes at AMerican universities are NOT that hard, nor that good, just average at best, compared to some countries such as India, China, France or Germany. But America is SO fascinating by itself that's it's totally worth it to study there.

And let's NOT forget the most important point: American universities teach in... well English, it's well known that English speaking countries tend to attract more foreign students, usually the attractiveness ranking goes like this: 1st choice USA, 2d choice UK, 3rd choice Australia etc... Japan for example has many world level top notch universities, but well only Japanese students go there for obvious reasons. China is in a very similar situation...

 

[American_Psycho]

But still, around 2050 China will be so influential that the US won't be able to do anything without bargaining with the Chinese, similar to the situation between the US and the EU in the economics/trade area, only with China it will concern EVERYTHING

It is really useless to make predictions that far into the future. There are far too many unforseen variables that will inevitably arise. Take 9/11 and the Iraqi war for example - these things have had major impacts on a international scale, yet no one could've predicted them 10, let alone 50 years ago.

 

[itishe]

China may have millions upon millions of available soldiers, but can China move them? China does not have the resources available to move it's army from one battlefield to another. Not to mention the Chinese army is using less effective equipment and their troops are not as trained as ours.

The US has technology. The US could wipe out thousands or millions of troops from a weapon that is unmanned. We could use unmanned vehicles controlled by soldiers stateside to fight an army of Chinese.

Technology>Manpower.

 

[Le Parisien]

The US has technology. The US could wipe out thousands or millions of troops from a weapon that is unmanned. We could use unmanned vehicles controlled by soldiers stateside to fight an army of Chinese.

You watch too much Sci-Fi ... :crazy: :crackup:

 

[itishe]

You watch too much Sci-Fi ... :crazy: :crackup:

Just wait and see. Much like we have unmanned aerial drones now, you can only guess what will come.