Economic Collapse Inevitable...how to protect ourselves??

[backbreaker]

America is not heading towards an economic collapse. It is simply expanding into a global level of capitalistic potential for a price. The US is not losing money in so much as it is losing sovereignty. The investments and initial pains on part of the US economy in trade agreements such as NAFTA and CAFTA are intended to eventually yield back a prosperity of resources. Much like investing in stocks, our government is investing in developing nations that are showing an interest in heading towards a fully capitalistic existence. It is this perceived expansion of trade and the ease in acquiring the availability of global resources (including labor) that is expected to become the ultimate pay back; to make many things cheaper to the US consumer.

Wal-Mart is a popular example. US consumers flock to these stores to buy affordable goods mostly Chinese in origin (though quality is another story) and it creates jobs (though the salary is insulting for a full grown adult with a family to feed). The US may be on the losing end in the short term in this particular case when it comes down to dollars and cents, but it also eases the burden of welfare cases, which in turn can ease taxes if politicians play it right. It allows the retired to create a supplemental income as well as students trying to earn their way through college. All of these things should have positive financial impacts on the US economy over the next several decades. Of course, there are just as many arguments against such a strategy as there are for it, and it almost takes the economical guru-ability of an Alan Greenspan to truly get a grasp of the realistic probabilities here, but one thing that is fairly certain is that economic collapse isn't a high probability.

Bullion is always the safest investment, but it's only worth as much as you put into it should such a collapse ever occur. You would have to sell your estate and every other asset you possess and convert it into gold before such a collapse takes place. And of course, by the time you know when that time comes, every Tom, Paul and Harry in the country will on the move to make the same investment, which will diminish your buying power.

Being that a total collapse is not the most likely scenario, I would actually advise real estate and treasury investments on the global scale to be wiser choices to bullion under the guidance of a true professional.

Bulgaria has become a popular trend for such investments recently, as it is being assimilated into the European Union and billions of dollars are being poured into the Bulgarian infrastructure to bring that country up to snuff. Real estate is at a bargain (and there are very good reasons for this, so do your homework), but those that get in now can quadruple or better their initial investments. There are opportunities like this all over the planet, and as an American your buying power in these developing countries are very strong.

If you can think financially global the same way the US economy is, then you can reassure your wealth and comfort of living without carrying around a chest full of gold bullion and a sign that reads "The End Is Near".

Still gold is a good thing to have around and it should not be discourged... noone has ever made a BAD investment in gold.

 

[Last Man Standing]

The money masters may change the world system if it doesn't benefit them or if they perceive that they will lose power over the masses - they will confiscate all the Gold and develop a new system under their control...confiscation has been done before..in 1933 ...http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-gold-confiscation.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/lundeen021001.html

 

[ValleyDJing]

Didn't you guys hear? The sky is falling!

 

[Bonhomme]

The funny thing is that all economics is based on faith.

Dollars, pounds, francs, etc. are only worth what they're worth in our minds.

 

[CLOONEY]

haha, this thread is too funny.

Obviously some very strong opinions in this thread, with very little idea of how an individual closed economy works, let alone an open economy, let alone the global economy.

I think the funniest part was someone saying the US will become a 3rd world country. hahaha.

Oh and this part:

"now, in the world we are in, where I can say "i want to move" and be in say, China tomorrow night, it doesn't take the actual economy to collaspe for people to get ape****.

all it takes is the percecption, and enough histeria for people like me to say you know what, I'm sick of this, I"m moving, and leave.

if too many people leave, not enough taxes gets paid, it' has a trickle down effect.

the thing about economy is, right now money isn't worth anything in actuality. it's worth this number that someone came up with somewhere"

hahaha. Not sure if there are any other economists here, but this is too funny. Someone doesnt come up with a number of how much money is worth, its called supply and demand. Now, the Chinese exchange rate, thats another thing alltogether.

Your living in a free market economy fellas, things happen for a reason, but markets correct themselves. Its called "automatic stabilisers" for you who dont know, and then there is intervention to further help keep stable markets. There may be a recession on the way, but its not the end of the world, it may have to happen, and then things will continue on their way.

 

[A-Unit]

Re:

Let's all drop the presumptions that we're Economists for the US, ok?

A few books, even a degree, does not make any competent at commenting on the economy and it's TRUE viability and health, myself included. The market isn't...100% free. If it were, we wouldn't have stop-gaps, special interest groups, politics wouldn't guide the procedures and policies more, and we wouldn't run the economy as we do. It's more socialist based on the programs and policies than it is "free."

More over, the big bad bank of the US is used for purposes necessary to the prosperity of the US, hopefully in our best interests, but very limited disclosure of why. For instance, we quack on about poverty, but we write off million and billion dollar checks for a war that is sketchy at best, all in the midst of a coming Social Security melt down. Are you serious? That's like...owning a business, buying another business, while your first business implodes from within due to poor management and even poorer employee benefits. Would you do that?

As far as ASSETS...they rise and fall on perceived value. Remember Gecko? He wasn't wrong about perception becoming reality. Gold - if we found a major vein, or a way to create it out of thing air would be worth how much? Like nil? But no one has found a way to create more land, except by way of volcanos coughing up more molten lava, or drudging the ocean bed and creating artificial land, at great expense, so land rises. Always. And becomes greater in value.

But assets depend on the demand of other people, and lack of relative asset volume found.

What's the US status'? Truly we dont know. The economy is a thing people don't grasp, and have never really listened to the experts about running. It was said that going off the golf standard and opening the Fed was the worst thing we've ever done. I may concur. While it has loosen our economy up to grow, it's made us DEPEND On consumption and constant consumption to grow. Isn't that artificial growth? Our largest component isn't production, but consumption. Stocks DEPEND on people buying more, and more, or companies cutting costs, which the largest expense is USUALLY the labor force and corresponding benefits. Ever wonder why laying off thousands of workers sees a company bump up in its share price the following day? Because less workers at the same level of revenue SHOULD equal more bottom line profit.

People would be better served, ignoring what they hear, and focusing on the basics. Avoid BAD debt, unless, if you had to liquidate the property/asset, you could do so with no loss to you personally. Acquire assets in all classes, heavily in harder asset classes like gold, silver, metals, real estate. Acquire/create positions in other currencies (i.e. it's like betting on the prosperity of another nation).

The news, MOST news outlets, Skew what they want to you, the end viewers. Major news outlets are just ways of shaping reality. YOU have to decide what you want to hear, and want to do. The news may say home prices have stabilized, and then you go buy, and then you lose out b/c they're not "in the know", and they don't really know. Anomalies occur all the time. Thing is, the news people aren't experts, they only transmit information by way of proper-speaking, semi-attractive on-air personalities. They know no more than you or I. And if they know, it's b/c they're meant to.

I can't for sure say one way or the other what will come of our country. The most sure thing is, we're not in good financial shape, UNLESS we find/acquire some MAJOR assets, or develop some MAJOR prosperity to offset the war, medicare/medicaid, and social security. The war has cost us trillions, social security falls deeper into debt each day, unlikely to recover, and there's no fund providing the income needed by retirees, just receipts from CURRENT tax revenues. Health care costs are escalating. So either, we find new assets, cut current benefits provided by the GOV, or raise taxes (which would never fly). Or maybe gates and buffet sink their fortunes into the country when they're done? Not sure.

Politicians are not financial wizards. They manipulate the economy for their own interests.


A-Unit

 

[FutureSpartan]

Let's all drop the presumptions that we're Economists for the US, ok?

A few books, even a degree, does not make any competent at commenting on the economy and it's TRUE viability and health, myself included. The market isn't...100% free. If it were, we wouldn't have stop-gaps, special interest groups, politics wouldn't guide the procedures and policies more, and we wouldn't run the economy as we do. It's more socialist based on the programs and policies than it is "free."

More over, the big bad bank of the US is used for purposes necessary to the prosperity of the US, hopefully in our best interests, but very limited disclosure of why. For instance, we quack on about poverty, but we write off million and billion dollar checks for a war that is sketchy at best, all in the midst of a coming Social Security melt down. Are you serious? That's like...owning a business, buying another business, while your first business implodes from within due to poor management and even poorer employee benefits. Would you do that?

As far as ASSETS...they rise and fall on perceived value. Remember Gecko? He wasn't wrong about perception becoming reality. Gold - if we found a major vein, or a way to create it out of thing air would be worth how much? Like nil? But no one has found a way to create more land, except by way of volcanos coughing up more molten lava, or drudging the ocean bed and creating artificial land, at great expense, so land rises. Always. And becomes greater in value.

But assets depend on the demand of other people, and lack of relative asset volume found.

What's the US status'? Truly we dont know. The economy is a thing people don't grasp, and have never really listened to the experts about running. It was said that going off the golf standard and opening the Fed was the worst thing we've ever done. I may concur. While it has loosen our economy up to grow, it's made us DEPEND On consumption and constant consumption to grow. Isn't that artificial growth? Our largest component isn't production, but consumption. Stocks DEPEND on people buying more, and more, or companies cutting costs, which the largest expense is USUALLY the labor force and corresponding benefits. Ever wonder why laying off thousands of workers sees a company bump up in its share price the following day? Because less workers at the same level of revenue SHOULD equal more bottom line profit.

People would be better served, ignoring what they hear, and focusing on the basics. Avoid BAD debt, unless, if you had to liquidate the property/asset, you could do so with no loss to you personally. Acquire assets in all classes, heavily in harder asset classes like gold, silver, metals, real estate. Acquire/create positions in other currencies (i.e. it's like betting on the prosperity of another nation).

The news, MOST news outlets, Skew what they want to you, the end viewers. Major news outlets are just ways of shaping reality. YOU have to decide what you want to hear, and want to do. The news may say home prices have stabilized, and then you go buy, and then you lose out b/c they're not "in the know", and they don't really know. Anomalies occur all the time. Thing is, the news people aren't experts, they only transmit information by way of proper-speaking, semi-attractive on-air personalities. They know no more than you or I. And if they know, it's b/c they're meant to.

I can't for sure say one way or the other what will come of our country. The most sure thing is, we're not in good financial shape, UNLESS we find/acquire some MAJOR assets, or develop some MAJOR prosperity to offset the war, medicare/medicaid, and social security. The war has cost us trillions, social security falls deeper into debt each day, unlikely to recover, and there's no fund providing the income needed by retirees, just receipts from CURRENT tax revenues. Health care costs are escalating. So either, we find new assets, cut current benefits provided by the GOV, or raise taxes (which would never fly). Or maybe gates and buffet sink their fortunes into the country when they're done? Not sure.

Politicians are not financial wizards. They manipulate the economy for their own interests.


A-Unit

Very insightful my man. the problem right now is government, unlike a private company, has no incentive to pull itself out of this financial mess it dug itself into. Republicans/Democrats; BS. They are both one and the same party; they just have different ideas for screwing their citizens over.

And to all the naysayers, don't be so quick to judge those that sees a potential disaster looming as "conspiracy theorist" "end-of-world lunatic"

There was plenty of warning during the Roaring 20's from those that forsaw an economic crash. Unfortunately their advice was mocked and ignored. They were "lunatics" and "paranoid sky-is-falling wierdos." We all know where that went

 

[backbreaker]

if I'm not mistaken didn't the Federal Reserve have a HELL of alot to do with the Great Depression?

 

[Throttle]

most of the pessimism in this thread is misplaced.

it is true that the Federal Reserve took actions that made the Great Depression worse. But so did President Hoover, and many other people. The Fed learned its lessons there.

it is NOT true that no one has ever made a bad investment in gold. Gold has often been a terrible investment. Since it is not a productive asset, it is at best a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

Clooney, you should know better than to say that we live in a free market. the US has overall perhaps the freest & most liquid markets in the world, but gov't interference affects all facets of trade & commerce. But your basic point is sound -- this Chicken Little crap is ridiculous & reveals only the ignorance of the posters who repeat it uncritically.

I could quibble with many of A-Unit's smaller assertions, but I think there is significant evidence that the current political elites (of both parties) have figured out how to skew things in the interest of themselves and their paymasters. This is different from saying that they are one and the same party, which is clearly also not true.

 

[Throttle]

okay, big guy, let me quibble a bit, just because I think there's a lot of truth in here but it's getting lost in some dubious assertions & generalizations.

A few books, even a degree, does not make any competent at commenting on the economy and it's TRUE viability and health, myself included.

if you mean that none of us has the full picture, you're absolutely right. we've learned by now that even revered Mr. Greenspan was oft puzzled by the most important trends in the American economy -- the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble, the late 90s apparent rise in productivity. BUT all of us must comment on it, and engage in discourse, and expose hypocrisy & all the rest -- or it will be with us always. I suspect it will be with us always, but I for one won't settle for keeping my mouth shut just b/c I occasionally fire off a dud.

The market isn't...100% free. If it were, we wouldn't have stop-gaps, special interest groups, politics wouldn't guide the procedures and policies more, and we wouldn't run the economy as we do. It's more socialist based on the programs and policies than it is "free."

most markets are indeed not 100% free, and certainly not paragons of "perfect competition" (a core assumption that drives much of modern economics), not even close. But it has less to do with socialism (state ownership of enterprises) and more to do with oligopolies, oligarchy, complicated tax schemes, regulatory favoritism, regulatory incoherence, and honest attempts by do-gooders that have made things much, much worse. And that's just off the top of my head.

For instance, we quack on about poverty, but we write off million and billion dollar checks for a war that is sketchy at best, all in the midst of a coming Social Security melt down. Are you serious? That's like...owning a business, buying another business, while your first business implodes from within due to poor management and even poorer employee benefits. Would you do that?

blame congress & the prez, and generations of both before now, not the federal reserve for these things. and it's not limited to the federal government -- there's a looming pension & retiree health care crisis coming to states & municipalities that we're just becoming aware of. If by crisis you mean that benefits have been promised that can't possibly be paid for.

But no one has found a way to create more land, except by way of volcanos coughing up more molten lava, or drudging the ocean bed and creating artificial land, at great expense, so land rises. Always. And becomes greater in value.

this is misleading -- land in very desirable places has tended to go up and up. but land prices in most of the Midwest are stable or falling gently. meanwhile, the idea that land prices always go up has helped drive the coastal housing bubble. but anyone who thinks they can predict, even now, what's next for US housing markets with any reliability is full of bull and/or trying to sell you something.

What's the US status'? Truly we dont know. The economy is a thing people don't grasp, and have never really listened to the experts about running. It was said that going off the golf standard and opening the Fed was the worst thing we've ever done. I may concur. While it has loosen our economy up to grow, it's made us DEPEND On consumption and constant consumption to grow. Isn't that artificial growth?

No. And here's why -- the gold standard forces the money supply to grow at precisely the rate at which gold is mined. Why the hell should our money supply be dependent on the vagarities of the market for a single good? All the chicken littling over the gold standard has turned out to be much ado about nothing, much like the fretting over the end of Bretton Woods. Nearly 40 years later can we move on to a new impending crisis? As it turns out, having the world's major currencies float against one another results in fairly volatile & unpredictable currency markets, and yet so far it's only made adjustment for those economies easier.

Our largest component isn't production, but consumption.

production equals consumption in a closed economy. we produce a hell of a lot of stuff, and our open economy lets us enjoy stuff we otherwise wouldn't. our trade deficit means that at some level we are trading away future consumption for present consumption. but it would take a concerted effort to change this, and not any of the simple proposals you ever hear out of congress.

The most sure thing is, we're not in good financial shape, UNLESS we find/acquire some MAJOR assets, or develop some MAJOR prosperity to offset the war, medicare/medicaid, and social security. The war has cost us trillions, social security falls deeper into debt each day, unlikely to recover, and there's no fund providing the income needed by retirees, just receipts from CURRENT tax revenues. Health care costs are escalating.

A concerted political effort by could fix all of these problems (except perhaps health care, which seems to baffle everyone, and certainly few of the proposals i've seen really cut to the heart of the matter) because, thank goodness, the debts we've been piling up are still off-set by an incredible economic engine. Could we yet piss that all away? yeh... and it's the health sector that concerns me most. somebody is going to have to find the will to say "no" to some baby boomer demands / expectations. and soon.

 

[backbreaker]

you kinda hit a soft spot talking about the dotcom bubble, and that goes to prove my earlier point, and A-Unit's as well, about precetion

dotcom... why exaclty did the dotcoms bubble burst?

most of the compaines NEVER had sound business ideas, very few operated in the black, and most of all's goal was not profit, but IPO's

but this wasn't new news. This had been going on for about 6 years.

Then one day, I was still in high school so I don't have the best memory, but one day everyone just decided that dotcoms weren't sound business plans... mass histera took place to dump dotcoms as fast as possible, hence the bursting of bubbles everywhere.\

When I was trying to raise VC for my computer company, I had more than one company tell us that 2-3 years earlier, we would have walked out with a 8 figure check, and although we actually had a retivly sound b usiness plan, the word internet and company put together in the same sentence scared banks and venture capitalist.

We eventually got funding (after we had proved ourselves a little more) but no where near 8 figures.. which we didn't need anyway, but that's not the point.

Nothing changed besides the media's perception of internet compaines. the few compaines that everyone had grown to love (Ebay, Amazon, yahoo) stuck around. Now, some of the businesses never shoul have been funded in the first place (valueamerica.com, pets.com) but because the PRECEPTION that if you slap the word Internet in front of a company, it's the next microsoft, everyone got money. When venture capitalist stopped being so eager to invest in compaines that caught the eye of the rest of amerca and a trickle down effect took place.

nothing changed but the preception of these comapaines...

 

[Throttle]

perception can become reality, but that doesn't mean that all valuations are garbage, or that an idea-based economy is inherently less worthy than a manufacturing-based economy (which is an implication vaguely floating around behind some of the assertions in this thread).

 

[backbreaker]

umm... it kinda is in the sense that regardless of what my preception when currency is backed by something of value, the facts are the same, whearas now it's not

 

[Bonhomme]

There was plenty of warning during the Roaring 20's from those that forsaw an economic crash. Unfortunately their advice was mocked and ignored. They were "lunatics" and "paranoid sky-is-falling wierdos." We all know where that went

Yup.

And the real funny thing is that for all intents and purposes, the US had no less food, timber, metals, water, or any other resources that are really of use to people the day after the crash as the day before.

That's what I mean by economics being based on faith.

If you step outside and take a good look it's really absurd.

 

[Throttle]

but just because this one time (at band camp?) some people were labeled cranks and turned out to be right doesn't make every crank right. far from it.

 

[Last Man Standing]

Clooney, there is no such thing as the "free" market - the "markets" are controlled - NOT by politicians or economists, but by the monied men!!! They write the GATT agreements and control the world bank and IMF!!! These are individuals, NOT governments or economists that dictate policy at all levels!!!

The 1929 depression was manufactured by the European "bankers" calling for the repayment of loans (all in one day) from those speculating in the stock market - thus, there was a rush to sell to pay off their owed debt (stocks paid for by margin) - which leads to a panic and a crisis!!! Simple manipulation! The monied men then could seize all assets at a much lower reduced panic-stricken price!!

Because the "little" people saw what was happening to the stocks they ran to get their money from the banks - but little did they know that the banks don't store their money - they lend it at a 20 to 1 ratio (fractional reserve banking = lending out money you don't have but printing it out of thin air = fiat currency) and thus a greater panic ensued!! From the looks of the inflated over-borrowed, speculative, manipulated stock market this will happen again soon!!!


This is part of The Matrix boys - it is all about control!!!!!!!!!!! But to control the masses you must deceive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is exactly what The Matrix movie was about!!!

This is important fellas - I may not be with you much longer to give you guidance - take heed!!!

Wake up and save someone!!!!

The collapse is coming and a new regional - Canada-US-Mexico -South American currency will be introduced - something like the "AMERO"!!!!

 

[CLOONEY]

Dont have time to read the lot of this thread, of course no market is "free", that is why I also stated that some intervention exists. But the US is closer to a free market, than most other mixed market economies.

Automatic stabliser: An economy slows, the exchange rate gets hit, less imports come into the country, more exports leave the country. GDP rises.

Of course, then there is Fiscal and Monetary policy to boost an economy, and Central Banks and the Government, now use these VERY effectively.

Scenario: The housing market in the US collapses, lenders close (as some currently are), the BIG banks are backed by the Central Bank no doubt, as they are in all modern economies. So the core of the money market is stable. Consumer confidence slows, buying on credit falls (half the problem gone already as savings now increase to guard oneself against this lack of confidence). GDP growth slows, or perhaps declines slightly. Long-term, employment market settles itself: automatic stablisers take place. Government intervention takes place to produce jobs. Jobs create growth, generates increased spending. Blah blah, we are then back to GDP growth and out of this "economic collape", "crisis", are the US has surely not regressed back to a "third world country".

 

[CLOONEY]

Clooney, there is no such thing as the "free" market - the "markets" are controlled - NOT by politicians or economists, but by the monied men!!! They write the GATT agreements and control the world bank and IMF!!! These are individuals, NOT governments or economists that dictate policy at all levels!!!

The 1929 depression was manufactured by the European "bankers" calling for the repayment of loans (all in one day) from those speculating in the stock market - thus, there was a rush to sell to pay off their owed debt (stocks paid for by margin) - which leads to a panic and a crisis!!! Simple manipulation! The monied men then could seize all assets at a much lower reduced panic-stricken price!!

Because the "little" people saw what was happening to the stocks they ran to get their money from the banks - but little did they know that the banks don't store their money - they lend it at a 20 to 1 ratio (fractional reserve banking = lending out money you don't have but printing it out of thin air = fiat currency) and thus a greater panic ensued!! From the looks of the inflated over-borrowed, speculative, manipulated stock market this will happen again soon!!!


This is part of The Matrix boys - it is all about control!!!!!!!!!!! But to control the masses you must deceive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is exactly what The Matrix movie was about!!!

This is important fellas - I may not be with you much longer to give you guidance - take heed!!!

Wake up and save someone!!!!

The collapse is coming and a new regional - Canada-US-Mexico -South American currency will be introduced - something like the "AMERO"!!!!

haha, I still love your conspiracy theories Last Man!

Just remember, the stock-market is not NEARLY as overinflated as it was even in 87, when it recovered a lot of what it lost very very soon after.

Also remember, this Indian and especially Chinese commodity boom are pushing up this stock market. And most importantly, superannuation is increasing rapidly, expected to more than double in the next 10 years, which creates HUGE amounts of money to be invested into the stockmarket. This is why the bull is expected to continue for a while, with some corrections along the way (though this is moreso fo the Australian market).

Also, you are talking about a GREAT depression, we are NOWHERE near to seeing a depression of that magnitude. And the economy was far less evolved back then in comparison to now.

Throttle, good to see you know what your talking about. I couldnt be bothered picking apart A-Units post, which shows absolutely nothing of how an economy crashes and recovers, but states the obvious logic behind politics and supply and demand.

 

[backbreaker]

last man standing is spot on about the depression. Something similar happened I think in the 70s as well (i'm just 23, i wasn't born yet)


it all comes down to this.. you don't have to have a degree in economics to understand that when you have a fait currency that is worth the paper it's printed on (nothing), you are subject to varying degrees of munliplation. that's what it comes down to.

Some of are saying "oh, you just dont' undrestand the way thing swork, we are growing, etc".. tha'ts not it. it's the extremely simple fact that, we have more debt that we can pay off, and our money is literarly worth nothing, and the only reason it is right now is because people say it is. We never shoul have left the gold standard.

 

[CLOONEY]

last man standing is spot on about the depression. Something similar happened I think in the 70s as well (i'm just 23, i wasn't born yet)


it all comes down to this.. you don't have to have a degree in economics to understand that when you have a fait currency that is worth the paper it's printed on (nothing), you are subject to varying degrees of munliplation. that's what it comes down to.

Some of are saying "oh, you just dont' undrestand the way thing swork, we are growing, etc".. tha'ts not it. it's the extremely simple fact that, we have more debt that we can pay off, and our money is literarly worth nothing, and the only reason it is right now is because people say it is. We never shoul have left the gold standard.

Man, Im sure you make some good posts on other topics, but all of what you said was ABSOLUTE rubbish!

First of all, YOU NEED a degree in economics, to be an economist (just as you need a degree in medicine, to be a doctor, or a law degree, to be a lawyer). Sure you could know a little of how it works by studying it yourself, but unless you dedicate years to studying the one subject area, you are obviously not going to understand it to the degree a person who has done 4 years at University studying it will. The things you just said:

"simple fact is we have more debt than we can pay off"

or

"our money is literally worth nothing"

or

"we should have never left the gold standard"

are all total opinions with absolutely no credibility.

So I will say, you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about, or how things work.

The US economy is not in a good place, no doubt, and you guys could see a recession, but no way are you seeing anything of the magnitude of a great depression.