Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb

As far as I'm concerned, the bearishness of the market we saw in December through this month of January 2025 was to be expected. The crypto market was absolutely on fire back in November of 2024 post election and naturally needed to cool off. I've honestly tuned the market out for over a month now, as I knew it wouldn't be worth paying attention to for at least a couple months.

As for recent bullish price action, I think a lot of it is simply based off of hype surrounding the inauguration in a few days. People act like this cycle is "different" but it's honestly played out eerily similar to what we saw in 2018-2020, let alone even the cycle prior to that. Now, when this cycle is going to really see peak euphoria no one really knows, it could be spring of this year or maybe not even until the fall of 2025. I would just be prepared to adjust to either scenario.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold

I agree with this sentiment and that major events like that can definitely be huge catalysts with regards to price action, the COVID lockdowns are the best recent example for sure. Overall though, the crypto asset class is very resilient and while it may be reactive at times to bad news, it will continue to go back on track.

@Solomon

I think XRP and BTC have already had the vast majority of their big gains this cycle. I'd honestly be very surprised to see BTC do a 2x from here, though as a holder I have absolutely no issues if I am incorrect here lol. However, ETH is still well below 4k and at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing. We are still very early and there is a lot of room for alts to rise from here, in fact you could even argue that alt coin season still isn't even here. Basically, have plans to take profits and stick with it.

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

 

[sangheilios]

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

I think the 2021 cycle played out similar to what we saw in 2013, where it had 2 tops. Looking back, I think the real peak of euphoria of the last cycle was around late April-Early May of 2021. We saw alts go and make these wild runs in a period of a few months, like ETH going to 4k+ from a little over 1k in January......which is an insane move. Meanwhile, we saw BTC tank to a little under 30k and ETH to a bit under 2k summer of 2021, only to then rally slightly higher in November compared to what we saw in the spring.

In my opinion, last cycle from 2018-2021 was much more volatile and wild than what we saw with the current cycle we are in, but there are definitely some similarities for sure. The ETF top from last March was very similar to what we saw in the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC rally from 3k range and hit 14k. With both of these scenarios we saw a very long and slow grind before heating up again. With the last cycle it was even more volatile because of the COVID sell offs. We also saw a pretty strong retracement with the market in the months leading up to the election, August through October of 2024 was actually a great opportunity to load up. We saw something very similar happen in 2020, and like with 2024 things started heating up after the election.

As for 2025, no one really knows exactly how it is going to play out. For those who hold alts, I think the best plan is to start laddering out of your positions once you start getting into your target price ranges instead of trying to time the exact top.

For instance, you sell 10% of your stack in certain $ increments or perhaps based on their BTC pairings.

Me personally, I plan on implementing something like this but I'm also going to pay a lot of attention to BTC dominance and the alt pairings with BTC. ETH is still VERY low compared to BTC, which is a sign that we are very early with regards to an alt season. There is so much that can happen in such a short period of time that most won't be prepared. I've literally spent YEARS thinking about my exit strategy and preparing for this, as I've looked back on the mistakes I made last cycle and learned from them. I've made very few mistakes this cycle, especially compared to last cycle. My only real mistake was not focusing 100% on BTC when I was accumulating in 2022, the latter part of that year I also was buying alts when I should have just been all BTC. Aside from that though, 2023 and 2024 I made near perfect plays with regards to what I was interested in accumulating.