Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb

As far as I'm concerned, the bearishness of the market we saw in December through this month of January 2025 was to be expected. The crypto market was absolutely on fire back in November of 2024 post election and naturally needed to cool off. I've honestly tuned the market out for over a month now, as I knew it wouldn't be worth paying attention to for at least a couple months.

As for recent bullish price action, I think a lot of it is simply based off of hype surrounding the inauguration in a few days. People act like this cycle is "different" but it's honestly played out eerily similar to what we saw in 2018-2020, let alone even the cycle prior to that. Now, when this cycle is going to really see peak euphoria no one really knows, it could be spring of this year or maybe not even until the fall of 2025. I would just be prepared to adjust to either scenario.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold

I agree with this sentiment and that major events like that can definitely be huge catalysts with regards to price action, the COVID lockdowns are the best recent example for sure. Overall though, the crypto asset class is very resilient and while it may be reactive at times to bad news, it will continue to go back on track.

@Solomon

I think XRP and BTC have already had the vast majority of their big gains this cycle. I'd honestly be very surprised to see BTC do a 2x from here, though as a holder I have absolutely no issues if I am incorrect here lol. However, ETH is still well below 4k and at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing. We are still very early and there is a lot of room for alts to rise from here, in fact you could even argue that alt coin season still isn't even here. Basically, have plans to take profits and stick with it.

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

 

[sangheilios]

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

I think the 2021 cycle played out similar to what we saw in 2013, where it had 2 tops. Looking back, I think the real peak of euphoria of the last cycle was around late April-Early May of 2021. We saw alts go and make these wild runs in a period of a few months, like ETH going to 4k+ from a little over 1k in January......which is an insane move. Meanwhile, we saw BTC tank to a little under 30k and ETH to a bit under 2k summer of 2021, only to then rally slightly higher in November compared to what we saw in the spring.

In my opinion, last cycle from 2018-2021 was much more volatile and wild than what we saw with the current cycle we are in, but there are definitely some similarities for sure. The ETF top from last March was very similar to what we saw in the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC rally from 3k range and hit 14k. With both of these scenarios we saw a very long and slow grind before heating up again. With the last cycle it was even more volatile because of the COVID sell offs. We also saw a pretty strong retracement with the market in the months leading up to the election, August through October of 2024 was actually a great opportunity to load up. We saw something very similar happen in 2020, and like with 2024 things started heating up after the election.

As for 2025, no one really knows exactly how it is going to play out. For those who hold alts, I think the best plan is to start laddering out of your positions once you start getting into your target price ranges instead of trying to time the exact top.

For instance, you sell 10% of your stack in certain $ increments or perhaps based on their BTC pairings.

Me personally, I plan on implementing something like this but I'm also going to pay a lot of attention to BTC dominance and the alt pairings with BTC. ETH is still VERY low compared to BTC, which is a sign that we are very early with regards to an alt season. There is so much that can happen in such a short period of time that most won't be prepared. I've literally spent YEARS thinking about my exit strategy and preparing for this, as I've looked back on the mistakes I made last cycle and learned from them. I've made very few mistakes this cycle, especially compared to last cycle. My only real mistake was not focusing 100% on BTC when I was accumulating in 2022, the latter part of that year I also was buying alts when I should have just been all BTC. Aside from that though, 2023 and 2024 I made near perfect plays with regards to what I was interested in accumulating.

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

 

[sangheilios]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

This thread itself goes way back to 2018. This is also a forum frequented by men that are active on the internet, which means that they are going to be relatively young, around 45 and under for the most part. This is the demographic that is most heavily invested in crypto right now without a doubt.

I do partially agree with you though. The ETFS launching last year and with the pro cypto stance of the new administration, I see this as BTC and the broader crypto space itself as having gone "public". If you were loading up in 2018 through 2020 leading up to the bull market of 2021 you were early for sure and I'd also say this applies to those who bought from 2022-2023. However, we are starting to get mainstream with this asset class and in the not too distant future most people who aren't invested are going to be left out of the loop.

I've discussed this with @jaygreenb on this thread. BTC is rapidly evolving and getting into price territory where those who have no positions are going to be struggling to attain sats. As I'm writing this, buying just .10 BTC would cost roughly $10,000, which is completely out of reach for the majority of working adults in America, let alone the world. Most people this would take several years of accumulation.....but the problem is that by the time they've invested this much money BTC could be trading within a completely different range. This is also a huge reason why retail newcomers to the space speculate with alts, as per unit they are substantially cheaper. People see BTC at 100k and realize they can't buy much of it, but then they look at SoSuave coin going for 50 cents each on robinhood and their $500 buys them 1k of these coins.

 

[jaygreenb]

I think the 2021 cycle played out similar to what we saw in 2013, where it had 2 tops. Looking back, I think the real peak of euphoria of the last cycle was around late April-Early May of 2021. We saw alts go and make these wild runs in a period of a few months, like ETH going to 4k+ from a little over 1k in January......which is an insane move. Meanwhile, we saw BTC tank to a little under 30k and ETH to a bit under 2k summer of 2021, only to then rally slightly higher in November compared to what we saw in the spring.

In my opinion, last cycle from 2018-2021 was much more volatile and wild than what we saw with the current cycle we are in, but there are definitely some similarities for sure. The ETF top from last March was very similar to what we saw in the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC rally from 3k range and hit 14k. With both of these scenarios we saw a very long and slow grind before heating up again. With the last cycle it was even more volatile because of the COVID sell offs. We also saw a pretty strong retracement with the market in the months leading up to the election, August through October of 2024 was actually a great opportunity to load up. We saw something very similar happen in 2020, and like with 2024 things started heating up after the election.

As for 2025, no one really knows exactly how it is going to play out. For those who hold alts, I think the best plan is to start laddering out of your positions once you start getting into your target price ranges instead of trying to time the exact top.

For instance, you sell 10% of your stack in certain $ increments or perhaps based on their BTC pairings.

Me personally, I plan on implementing something like this but I'm also going to pay a lot of attention to BTC dominance and the alt pairings with BTC. ETH is still VERY low compared to BTC, which is a sign that we are very early with regards to an alt season. There is so much that can happen in such a short period of time that most won't be prepared. I've literally spent YEARS thinking about my exit strategy and preparing for this, as I've looked back on the mistakes I made last cycle and learned from them. I've made very few mistakes this cycle, especially compared to last cycle. My only real mistake was not focusing 100% on BTC when I was accumulating in 2022, the latter part of that year I also was buying alts when I should have just been all BTC. Aside from that though, 2023 and 2024 I made near perfect plays with regards to what I was interested in accumulating.

I have similar plan as far as selling off, basically do 10-20% as it runs up, its fairly flexible as in it depends if the individual coin runs. I actually did a 10% sell on ADA a few weeks ago when it ran. The only thing I am certain of in this market it is it will do whatever catches the majority offsides. This guy is a great follow btw, he has put out some of the consistently best data and analysis I have seen since 2018. He thinks this market is lining up like 2015-2017

x.com

x.com

As I'm writing this, buying just .10 BTC would cost roughly $10,000, which is completely out of reach for the majority of working adults in America, let alone the world. Most people this would take several years of accumulation.....but the problem is that by the time they've invested this much money BTC could be trading within a completely different range.

How things have changed lol

 

[jaygreenb]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

would say its "early majority" now on the adoption curve who have started buying. Most of retail though is not buying the right stuff so they aren't really going to be participating, at least in the long term upside. Trump and the strategic reserve might be the "chasm" or maybe was the ETF. 2015-20 was early, prior was the innovators

 

[sangheilios]

I have similar plan as far as selling off, basically do 10-20% as it runs up, its fairly flexible as in it depends if the individual coin runs. I actually did a 10% sell on ADA a few weeks ago when it ran. The only thing I am certain of in this market it is it will do whatever catches the majority offsides. This guy is a great follow btw, he has put out some of the consistently best data and analysis I have seen since 2018. He thinks this market is lining up like 2015-2017

x.com

x.com

How things have changed lol
View attachment 13796

Are those screenshots of your actual purchases? The last few months of 2017 was when I started hearing about BTC and crypto, which was when my interest started to peak. I didn't start actually making some moves until March of 2018, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing back then so it was a crazy year for me. However, I quickly understood the concept of dollar cost averaging and I stuck with it. Last cycle, I distinctly remember buying BTC in the 3k range, ETH at $100, etc. I also made the mistake of buying Litecoin and Bcash, I netted very respectable profits with them but I would have been substantially better off just buying BTC and ETH.

Going back to this cycle, I think it's very interesting to see how low ETH is right now, even as other top alts have made some huge moves over these last few months. As I've mentioned, this stuff can rip so hard and out of nowhere that it will catch many by surprise. I'm really looking forward to seeing if there is indeed a big pump during/after Trump's inauguration, similar to what we saw during election night.

I plan on selling alts for cash and also potentially converting some of these profits into BTC if they are strong levels with regards to their BTC pairs. I have no intention of selling my BTC, so I'll always have exposure and have nothing to worry about in case I sell a bit prematurely. I think the biggest risk is not so much selling a bit too early but more so holding out for some magical price you've become obsessed about that ultimately never hits, which results in you round tripping your bags. I can't imagine seeing sizeable gains where you've made 5 or even 6 figures off of your investment that made massive returns, only to watch it go back to where you started.

 

[sangheilios]

would say its "early majority" now on the adoption curve who have started buying. Most of retail though is not buying the right stuff so they aren't really going to be participating, at least in the long term upside. Trump and the strategic reserve might be the "chasm" or maybe was the ETF. 2015-20 was early, prior was the innovators

View attachment 13797

Here are some interesting links

This one is from late 2023, so it's a bit outdated, but at the time it was released it showed that we were still very early.
How Many Americans Own Crypto? (2025 Statistics)

This one is a bit more recent from earlier this past fall, a lot of very interesting information on here.
2024 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Sentiment Report | Security.org

This last link in particular I'm going to read through more in depth after I post this, I briefly skimmed through it before citing it on this page. I would say that while there are a good number of Americans that own some form of crypto, they probably are holding relatively small amounts and basically just dabbling a little in it.

 

[jaygreenb]

Are those screenshots of your actual purchases? The last few months of 2017 was when I started hearing about BTC and crypto, which was when my interest started to peak. I didn't start actually making some moves until March of 2018, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing back then so it was a crazy year for me. However, I quickly understood the concept of dollar cost averaging and I stuck with it. Last cycle, I distinctly remember buying BTC in the 3k range, ETH at $100, etc. I also made the mistake of buying Litecoin and Bcash, I netted very respectable profits with them but I would have been substantially better off just buying BTC and ETH.

Going back to this cycle, I think it's very interesting to see how low ETH is right now, even as other top alts have made some huge moves over these last few months. As I've mentioned, this stuff can rip so hard and out of nowhere that it will catch many by surprise. I'm really looking forward to seeing if there is indeed a big pump during/after Trump's inauguration, similar to what we saw during election night.

I plan on selling alts for cash and also potentially converting some of these profits into BTC if they are strong levels with regards to their BTC pairs. I have no intention of selling my BTC, so I'll always have exposure and have nothing to worry about in case I sell a bit prematurely. I think the biggest risk is not so much selling a bit too early but more so holding out for some magical price you've become obsessed about that ultimately never hits, which results in you round tripping your bags. I can't imagine seeing sizeable gains where you've made 5 or even 6 figures off of your investment that made massive returns, only to watch it go back to where you started.

Yes lol That buy in June was my first buy, literally had no idea what it was but a buddy who I knew who was really smart was going nuts about it at a poker game. Figured, why not and bought a couple days later. Think it dropped 30-40% within a few days haha That is when I started to go down rabbit hole and trying to figure out what i just bought. Started reading everything I could over the next month, got zero work done. Then one day after maybe 100 plus hrs of consuming content it just clicked and started shoveling as much money as I could in around a month after my first buy. Back then coinbase started you out with a 2500 week limit, I was so impatient I did it at 5 and 6 days, thats why some of those are 1900. I certainly didn't know what I was doing at that point, around 30% of that btc went straight to Binance to buy some of the most ultra dog sh1T coins there were. I always kept around 70% btc though, which saved me. At the peak, I think I ran my portfolio to over 600k then watched over 500k of that evaporate in 2018, very very painful at the time as that was a very meaningful amount for me then. Funny reminiscing on those moments now and how just a conversation can change your whole life trajectory. I stuck around though and spent a lot of time figuring out what got wrong and filling in the gaps of knowledge on not just crypto but investing/markets/cycles/money/networks. I learned so much from that experience and it was a huge motivator. Changed everything really.

After that I have stuck with probably 90% BTC, never stopped buying although looking back should of been much more aggressive in the 18/19 era. That first bear market plays with your mind, hard to keep that conviction and not second guess yourself. Especially with all these yahoo smooth brains on this thread telling you that you're an idiot lol Bear markets never phased me after that, I knew I was right. I bought a good amount of eth too during 18-20. I still have it and ideally would like to dump all of it this cycle as well as every other alt. I really do not have long term conviction in ETH, maybe it does, maybe not. I'll just take the low risk 30-50% CAGR of Bitcoin for the next 10-20yrs and be perfectly happy with that lay up. Past few months I've passed the never need to work again thresholds, a little surreal thinking of the numbers over the next few years. Feel very fortunate and grateful as I am sure you do as well.