Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[FlirtLife]

No it's a great time to invest...wait for the price to drop after the halving and look for bottoming signs(aka drop to the "Golden Pocket" area of the Fibonacci) and then buy. Price usually rebounds strongly within 3-6 months.

A website claimed the following, which is more than I know about the subject:
"The golden pocket in trading refers to the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8%."

After a halving, your approach is to buy after a 38.2% or 61.8% drop within 3-6 months, then HODL. The 2020 halving occurred on May 11, which Yahoo shows closed at $8600/BTC. For the rest of the year, it never went below that point, tripling by year end to $29,000/BTC. Did I miss something, or did this approach not work in 2020?

Perhaps you can mention a time where it worked, and the key drop / buy-in.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Looking good for takeoff...big wick on the daily yesterday, almost a perfect pullback to push up and thru the ATH from here.

 

[Solomon]

You guys think there will be a crash in the next couple days cause of the election and then a rise in December?

 

[jaygreenb]

You guys think there will be a crash in the next couple days cause of the election and then a rise in December?

Anyone's best guess but if Trump wins think it is much less likely. Personally wouldn't try to time a trade right now, market could get parabolic at any time and some major unknown variables. We have been building a base for 6 months and we are right at that time in the cycle where things get silly. Higher risk sitting on the sidelines or shorting. I am far from a trader though

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

Guess Marmell will buy them through the ETF after all...

 

[sangheilios]

@jaygreenb @Fortune_favors_the_bold and @Solomon

I honestly felt a lot of the fear in the market was related to the uncertainty around the election. Interestingly enough, during election night when it was announced that Trump won Florida by a massive margin and was on track to winning in GA the market started rallying hard. I think if Kamala had won we would have seen a sizeable sell off, basically markets were pricing in for a Trump victory and an unexpected victory for her would have thrown this out the window.

With this out of the way, there are some huge things going on right now.

The FED cut rates again by 25 points, so this trend is going to continue into next year and is good for risk assets, including BTC.

Trump has a very pro crypto stance and there are a lot of big things to expect. First, he's talked about a BTC reserve with the coins that the government currently owns, a little north of 200k BTC. I've also seen some stuff very recently that they have a plan to acquire 1 million BTC, or approximately 5% of the total supply, over the next 5 years. What would be interesting is if they allocated social security taxes into BTC, not all but a portion of it. They also have a plan to embrace and expand upon BTC mining, not sure if this will be with purely the private sector or if the public/government sector will be directly invested in it. This is all in addition to the ETFs that launched almost a year ago.

2025 is going to be insane for those who are invested into crypto and the overall longer term trend is looking incredible as well. The one thing I do wonder though is if we will continue to have the 4 year cycles or if these new variables completely throw this off. If the cycle theories still are in play, I think that we will just see significantly diminished volatility with BTC to both the up and downside. Maybe it peaks at 150k and tanks to say 60k, more or less on par with a tech stock. Give this the halving cycles of 2028 and maybe 2032 and it will probably perform like real estate or gold. I'm just speculating right now. With that said, I think there will be a lot of money to be made in alts still, as they have substantially lower market cap valuations compared to BTC.

As for long term pricing, with all of these various factors at play it's almost impossible to tell where the asset could go. With institutions getting involved and now big governments + pension/retirement funds and retail investors and holders.......it could easily get into the millions. Crazy to think that if you went back to when this thread was created it was trading in the 3k range lol.

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

@jaygreenb @Fortune_favors_the_bold and @Solomon

I honestly felt a lot of the fear in the market was related to the uncertainty around the election. Interestingly enough, during election night when it was announced that Trump won Florida by a massive margin and was on track to winning in GA the market started rallying hard. I think if Kamala had won we would have seen a sizeable sell off, basically markets were pricing in for a Trump victory and an unexpected victory for her would have thrown this out the window.

With this out of the way, there are some huge things going on right now.

The FED cut rates again by 25 points, so this trend is going to continue into next year and is good for risk assets, including BTC.

Trump has a very pro crypto stance and there are a lot of big things to expect. First, he's talked about a BTC reserve with the coins that the government currently owns, a little north of 200k BTC. I've also seen some stuff very recently that they have a plan to acquire 1 million BTC, or approximately 5% of the total supply, over the next 5 years. What would be interesting is if they allocated social security taxes into BTC, not all but a portion of it. They also have a plan to embrace and expand upon BTC mining, not sure if this will be with purely the private sector or if the public/government sector will be directly invested in it. This is all in addition to the ETFs that launched almost a year ago.

2025 is going to be insane for those who are invested into crypto and the overall longer term trend is looking incredible as well. The one thing I do wonder though is if we will continue to have the 4 year cycles or if these new variables completely throw this off. If the cycle theories still are in play, I think that we will just see significantly diminished volatility with BTC to both the up and downside. Maybe it peaks at 150k and tanks to say 60k, more or less on par with a tech stock. Give this the halving cycles of 2028 and maybe 2032 and it will probably perform like real estate or gold. I'm just speculating right now. With that said, I think there will be a lot of money to be made in alts still, as they have substantially lower market cap valuations compared to BTC.

As for long term pricing, with all of these various factors at play it's almost impossible to tell where the asset could go. With institutions getting involved and now big governments + pension/retirement funds and retail investors and holders.......it could easily get into the millions. Crazy to think that if you went back to when this thread was created it was trading in the 3k range lol.

Kamala would have been a problem both in the short and the long term..even the biden gov despite finding itself in a growing part of a cycle underpermoded compared to the past even if adjusted to the new prices.

The thing is not only being pro crypto as trump or musk but getting rid of all those sad angry slow boomers like gary gensler or elizabeth warren..purge them all.

Add to this that most millennials and zoomers are "unable to make it" the old way and investing on the sp500 or legacy stocks wont get you wealthy, the potential for crypto is big.

Btw you realize you are talking with a dumb one when they say "ohhh yeah the blockchain is a great technology but bitcoin is a scam"...think of @marmel75 who opened this thread.

 

[sangheilios]

Kamala would have been a problem both in the short and the long term..even the biden gov despite finding itself in a growing part of a cycle underpermoded compared to the past even if adjusted to the new prices.

The thing is not only being pro crypto as trump or musk but getting rid of all those sad angry slow boomers like gary gensler or elizabeth warren..purge them all.

Add to this that most millennials and zoomers are "unable to make it" the old way and investing on the sp500 or legacy stocks wont get you wealthy, the potential for crypto is big.

Btw you realize you are talking with a dumb one when they say "ohhh yeah the blockchain is a great technology but bitcoin is a scam"...think of @marmel75 who opened this thread.

Yeah, I remember talking with that guy on here years ago and he clearly didn't know what he was talking about. To be fair though, in 2018 this asset class was still insanely speculative. By the end of that year the market cap for the entire crypto market, not just BTC, was something like 100 billion dollars if I recall correctly lol.

I also agree with your comments about the boomers not really understanding this asset class. They basically got ahead and honestly did really well by just working 9-5 type jobs, buying a home and investing into 401ks. They act like they are geniuses that made incredible financial moves, that they worked so much harder......but the reality was they were simply lucky and were in their prime working years when both the population and technology were rapidly expanding. However, they also control the majority of the real estate in the country and have effectively priced out the generation of their children from being able to own a home, build wealth, etc.

This generation is starting to get old though, as you mentioned, and within the not too distant future they will slowly start aging out and even passing. Trump is a boomer, but he is incredibly youthful and energetic for a man almost 80 years old, he is an outlier and not the norm. Towards the end of the decade it will be Gen X and older Millenials, people around @SW15 age born in the early 80s, who will take over. It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out through this decade and the 2030s.

 

[SW15]

Towards the end of the decade it will be Gen X and older Millenials, people around @SW15 age born in the early 80s, who will take over. It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out through this decade and the 2030s.

I am an older Millennial. Most older Millennials like myself had Boomer parents.

Older Millennials like myself came of age in the 2000s. Lots of us older Millennials graduated into The Great Recession and that set us back. A lot of Millennials were laid off during the pandemic as well. The Millennials have been a bit of a lost generation. Our lives don't resemble the lives of our Boomer parents at similar ages.

Much of the financial success of Millennials will depend on the inheritances Millennials get from their Baby Boomer parents. Baby Boomers are going to start dying in very large numbers throughout the 2nd half of the 2020s and through the 2030s. Most of the 2030s deaths will be Baby Boomers.

As Millennials, we are a larger generation than Generation X. That tends to help us as our size gives us more influence over Generation X.

Generation X members are taking over in business as Boomers have been retiring since the late 2000s/early 2010s.

It's possible the USA will have its first Millennial president in January 2029. I do think there will be at least one Generation X US President at some point.

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb @Fortune_favors_the_bold and @Solomon

I honestly felt a lot of the fear in the market was related to the uncertainty around the election. Interestingly enough, during election night when it was announced that Trump won Florida by a massive margin and was on track to winning in GA the market started rallying hard. I think if Kamala had won we would have seen a sizeable sell off, basically markets were pricing in for a Trump victory and an unexpected victory for her would have thrown this out the window.

With this out of the way, there are some huge things going on right now.

The FED cut rates again by 25 points, so this trend is going to continue into next year and is good for risk assets, including BTC.

Trump has a very pro crypto stance and there are a lot of big things to expect. First, he's talked about a BTC reserve with the coins that the government currently owns, a little north of 200k BTC. I've also seen some stuff very recently that they have a plan to acquire 1 million BTC, or approximately 5% of the total supply, over the next 5 years. What would be interesting is if they allocated social security taxes into BTC, not all but a portion of it. They also have a plan to embrace and expand upon BTC mining, not sure if this will be with purely the private sector or if the public/government sector will be directly invested in it. This is all in addition to the ETFs that launched almost a year ago.

2025 is going to be insane for those who are invested into crypto and the overall longer term trend is looking incredible as well. The one thing I do wonder though is if we will continue to have the 4 year cycles or if these new variables completely throw this off. If the cycle theories still are in play, I think that we will just see significantly diminished volatility with BTC to both the up and downside. Maybe it peaks at 150k and tanks to say 60k, more or less on par with a tech stock. Give this the halving cycles of 2028 and maybe 2032 and it will probably perform like real estate or gold. I'm just speculating right now. With that said, I think there will be a lot of money to be made in alts still, as they have substantially lower market cap valuations compared to BTC.

As for long term pricing, with all of these various factors at play it's almost impossible to tell where the asset could go. With institutions getting involved and now big governments + pension/retirement funds and retail investors and holders.......it could easily get into the millions. Crazy to think that if you went back to when this thread was created it was trading in the 3k range lol.

Honestly, it is a little surreal on how this is all unfolding. Everything we talked about for years potentially happening is all starting to develop at a rapid pace. People who are positioned correctly are going to have their lives significantly change over the coming years. It is very exciting and feel very fortunate. Not to toot my own horn but almost everyone relatively close to me, my friends, family, employees and colleagues, has a pretty meaningful position and feels really good and gratifying that I played a role in helping to facilitate that. Making tons of money is great, but that piece is much more fulfilling on a personal level.

Btw you realize you are talking with a dumb one when they say "ohhh yeah the blockchain is a great technology but bitcoin is a scam"...think of @marmel75 who opened this thread.

There are so many frauds, scammers and false prophets in this space. For someone new, it can be really hard to tell who actually knows what they are talking about. This is actually a great qualifier on how to immediately tell if someone actually understands what the real value proposition of all this is.

 

[Solomon]

Bitcoin at 87K melting faces Solana needs to hit $226 and I will be able to take some profit there, awww man today is a great day!

 

[jaygreenb]

Good God, what a day

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Alt season is going to be massive this year...

 

[sangheilios]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon @SW15 @Fortune_favors_the_bold

I've seen a lot of interesting stuff over the last couple days. As was discussed on here recently, there is a plan for the U.S government to keep that 200k+ BTC it has but it is also planning on buying up BTC to get the reserve to 1 million coins, or roughly 5% of the total supply. However, the other day I saw that the state of Florida is planning on creating a BTC reserve, though on a much smaller scale of course. I partially wonder if this will throw off the 4 year cycles we've had or if we just see greatly diminished volatility.

I also saw that Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, is going to be a policy maker in Washington as some sort of crypto advisor, full details haven't been disclosed.

My thoughts, I plan on just holding BTC long term and going to take things one month at a time to see where we head into next year. I personally think we will still see market cycles, especially with alts, but I am also completely open to the idea of being flexible with this given certain changes in the space. I can't imagine where things are going to be within the next 3-6 months.

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon @SW15 @Fortune_favors_the_bold

I've seen a lot of interesting stuff over the last couple days. As was discussed on here recently, there is a plan for the U.S government to keep that 200k+ BTC it has but it is also planning on buying up BTC to get the reserve to 1 million coins, or roughly 5% of the total supply. However, the other day I saw that the state of Florida is planning on creating a BTC reserve, though on a much smaller scale of course. I partially wonder if this will throw off the 4 year cycles we've had or if we just see greatly diminished volatility.

I also saw that Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, is going to be a policy maker in Washington as some sort of crypto advisor, full details haven't been disclosed.

My thoughts, I plan on just holding BTC long term and going to take things one month at a time to see where we head into next year. I personally think we will still see market cycles, especially with alts, but I am also completely open to the idea of being flexible with this given certain changes in the space. I can't imagine where things are going to be within the next 3-6 months.

I am the same, not selling any of my BTC for at least 5+yrs to likely never, just too much risk of ending up with less tryng to get cute. Not sure how likely but also hearing talks of removing cap gains and treating as an actual currency, Trumps entire staff are bitcoiners to different degrees. Personally think just too much upside left to try and do anything buy hodl and accumulate. Got some GBTC in a roth I may sell if things get real silly and some nice sized alt bags I would love to completely sell off over the next year.

 

[Divorced w 3]

I am the same, not selling any of my BTC for at least 5+yrs to likely never, just too much risk of ending up with less tryng to get cute. Not sure how likely but also hearing talks of removing cap gains and treating as an actual currency, Trumps entire staff are bitcoiners to different degrees. Personally think just too much upside left to try and do anything buy hodl and accumulate. Got some GBTC in a roth I may sell if things get real silly and some nice sized alt bags I would love to completely sell off over the next year.

Own your BTC in taxable, move it now and pay the taxes. You can’t use retirement account as collateral. Too many different ways to monetize your coin without selling it to have it in Roth. Imagine if you held a house in a Roth and could never get money from it.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Own your BTC in taxable, move it now and pay the taxes. You can’t use retirement account as collateral. Too many different ways to monetize your coin without selling it to have it in Roth. Imagine if you held a house in a Roth and could never get money from it.

You can trade within a Roth and all gains you make will be tax free forever up to an unlimited amount. People would be a fool not to take advantage of that.

 

[Divorced w 3]

You can trade within a Roth and all gains you make will be tax free forever up to an unlimited amount. People would be a fool not to take advantage of that.

after 59.5… what does that do for you now?

 

[Divorced w 3]

I am the same, not selling any of my BTC for at least 5+yrs to likely never, just too much risk of ending up with less tryng to get cute. Not sure how likely but also hearing talks of removing cap gains and treating as an actual currency, Trumps entire staff are bitcoiners to different degrees. Personally think just too much upside left to try and do anything buy hodl and accumulate. Got some GBTC in a roth I may sell if things get real silly and some nice sized alt bags I would love to completely sell off over the next year.

The top and bottom 1/8 are the most expensive in a traders life

 

[jaygreenb]

Own your BTC in taxable, move it now and pay the taxes. You can’t use retirement account as collateral. Too many different ways to monetize your coin without selling it to have it in Roth. Imagine if you held a house in a Roth and could never get money from it.

It is not so much the access the capital but just to diversify out some to sleep better at night. I have been buying heavily since mid 2017 and had many multiples of appreciation, it is a considerable amount of my net worth at this point and am crossing into the very high category. My retirement account is only around 15% of my liquid investable assets so have plenty outside of that if I need to access capital or use as collateral. There is also the potential they get rid of cap gains on btc at some point so would prefer to avoid that and see how that plays out.

after 59.5… what does that do for you now?

I am 44 and today have more than I would need to cover that gap if prices stayed the same. I do expect considerable appreciation to continue and find it comforting to have a stocked retirement account that isn't correlated just in case everything else went sideways.