Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[Solomon]

I put my Solana into a free ride last week.

Sol has done amazing this year, my biggest regret was not buying at $9 I was greedy and hoping it would go to $7 but alas lesson learned. I do think right now the market is in pre-euphoria due to the ETF hype and BTC being at 44K. I expect the market to lose it's mind once ETF is approved but there will be a subsequent pump and then dump. LUNC has had an amazing month and I expect it to to continue to do well into 2024.

Overall market sentiment is up. If you positioned yourself in 2022 and this year, you should be reaping the benefits in 2024 and beyond

Cheers!

 

[sangheilios]

Sol has done amazing this year, my biggest regret was not buying at $9 I was greedy and hoping it would go to $7 but alas lesson learned. I do think right now the market is in pre-euphoria due to the ETF hype and BTC being at 44K. I expect the market to lose it's mind once ETF is approved but there will be a subsequent pump and then dump. LUNC has had an amazing month and I expect it to to continue to do well into 2024.

Overall market sentiment is up. If you positioned yourself in 2022 and this year, you should be reaping the benefits in 2024 and beyond

Cheers!

You shouldn't obsess over a particular alt doing well in a given period of time before the halving, true bull run, etc. In 2019 LTC and Bcash pumped hard into the summer of that year while ETH underperformed compared to the rest of the market. You can see in 2021 ETH went on an absolute tear, while the former 2 honestly lagged quite heavily.

The FOMO right now is insane with all of this ETF stuff and I can't help but feel there will be a very sizeable correction sometime within the next few months before the halving. Perhaps "this time is different" but when the market is this heated it would be healthy and normal for this to occur.

I agree with the rest of your statement though. Through late 2020 and 2021 I mostly just chilled and sat back on my investments, I added a bit here and there but it wasn't very aggressive. I started reaccumulating in 2022 but the 2nd half of that year I definitely increased the intensity. I chilled through the spring of this year when the market was running hot but the summer through fall of this year I loaded up heavily. I've been sitting back for almost 2 months now and just waiting to see what happens, hoping to be able to reload on some discounts but also not worried if it doesn't happen.

 

[Solomon]

You shouldn't obsess over a particular alt doing well in a given period of time before the halving, true bull run, etc. In 2019 LTC and Bcash pumped hard into the summer of that year while ETH underperformed compared to the rest of the market. You can see in 2021 ETH went on an absolute tear, while the former 2 honestly lagged quite heavily.

The FOMO right now is insane with all of this ETF stuff and I can't help but feel there will be a very sizeable correction sometime within the next few months before the halving. Perhaps "this time is different" but when the market is this heated it would be healthy and normal for this to occur.

I agree with the rest of your statement though. Through late 2020 and 2021 I mostly just chilled and sat back on my investments, I added a bit here and there but it wasn't very aggressive. I started reaccumulating in 2022 but the 2nd half of that year I definitely increased the intensity. I chilled through the spring of this year when the market was running hot but the summer through fall of this year I loaded up heavily. I've been sitting back for almost 2 months now and just waiting to see what happens, hoping to be able to reload on some discounts but also not worried if it doesn't happen.

I think from now until the halving it will be a frenzy(I agree with you there be a massive dump coming soon maybe after January or february who knows). You have people who are totally losing it on social media talking about 500K btc heck I was watching a youtuber who is usually calm, just being overflooded with emotions. which caught me of guard cause usually he's a level-headed guy.

It just confirms that this Bear market has been brutal and people can smell something big is brewing. I'm just putting myself in the position where if the market pumps, I'm taking profit if it dumps I'm buying. It's a win win!

 

[jaygreenb]

You shouldn't obsess over a particular alt doing well in a given period of time before the halving, true bull run, etc. In 2019 LTC and Bcash pumped hard into the summer of that year while ETH underperformed compared to the rest of the market. You can see in 2021 ETH went on an absolute tear, while the former 2 honestly lagged quite heavily.

The FOMO right now is insane with all of this ETF stuff and I can't help but feel there will be a very sizeable correction sometime within the next few months before the halving. Perhaps "this time is different" but when the market is this heated it would be healthy and normal for this to occur.

I agree with the rest of your statement though. Through late 2020 and 2021 I mostly just chilled and sat back on my investments, I added a bit here and there but it wasn't very aggressive. I started reaccumulating in 2022 but the 2nd half of that year I definitely increased the intensity. I chilled through the spring of this year when the market was running hot but the summer through fall of this year I loaded up heavily. I've been sitting back for almost 2 months now and just waiting to see what happens, hoping to be able to reload on some discounts but also not worried if it doesn't happen.

This is the right way to play it, usually only happens after someone has been through at least one 4yr cycle. Let the market come to you and just add at good opportunities, not chasing any and everything. I only added at the teens and low 20s, i'm good with not adding anything anymore though. Even at the low of the the recent bear market still being up from your overall cost basis is such a different position in to be in than the first bear market experience. On a USD basis my portfolio was down multiples more at peak than the prior cycle but never really felt stressed or worried this time around, last time was pretty brutal. Nothing beats Bitcoin in cold storage when the whole sh*tshow of everything blowing up was going on. I don't really day dream about he potential riches coming but I think those of us you are prepared are going to jump a few levels the next 5-10yrs. Exciting times

 

[sangheilios]

This is the right way to play it, usually only happens after someone has been through at least one 4yr cycle. Let the market come to you and just add at good opportunities, not chasing any and everything. I only added at the teens and low 20s, i'm good with not adding anything anymore though. Even at the low of the the recent bear market still being up from your overall cost basis is such a different position in to be in than the first bear market experience. On a USD basis my portfolio was down multiples more at peak than the prior cycle but never really felt stressed or worried this time around, last time was pretty brutal. Nothing beats Bitcoin in cold storage when the whole sh*tshow of everything blowing up was going on. I don't really day dream about he potential riches coming but I think those of us you are prepared are going to jump a few levels the next 5-10yrs. Exciting times

I first got interested in crypto during the peak of the 2017/2018 crypto bull run, didn't really start investing until the spring of 2018. I did incredibly well in the 2021 run with an investment that would have cost less than a new corolla. I definitely made some mistakes during my accumulation phase back then, to where I could have made even more money, but it all worked out.

The crazy thing is that owning just 1 BTC will be an incredibly rare thing. The vast majority of coins are held by wallets that own very large amounts of BTC. The U.S government, microstrategy, etc. are hoarding vast amounts which limits how much is available to retail. As we are on here, there are a little over 1 million wallets/addresses that hold 1 BTC or more. I don't see this number changing by any substantial margin, so being in that category is an incredible place to be. It's kind of hard to believe at one point I was buying BTC in the 3k range lol. It's eventually going to get into a price range where even aggressive retail investors will have very little chance of getting into that club. Hell, even right now at 40k+ most people would honestly struggle to get even half of one.

 

[jaygreenb]

I first got interested in crypto during the peak of the 2017/2018 crypto bull run, didn't really start investing until the spring of 2018. I did incredibly well in the 2021 run with an investment that would have cost less than a new corolla. I definitely made some mistakes during my accumulation phase back then, to where I could have made even more money, but it all worked out.

The crazy thing is that owning just 1 BTC will be an incredibly rare thing. The vast majority of coins are held by wallets that own very large amounts of BTC. The U.S government, microstrategy, etc. are hoarding vast amounts which limits how much is available to retail. As we are on here, there are a little over 1 million wallets/addresses that hold 1 BTC or more. I don't see this number changing by any substantial margin, so being in that category is an incredible place to be. It's kind of hard to believe at one point I was buying BTC in the 3k range lol. It's eventually going to get into a price range where even aggressive retail investors will have very little chance of getting into that club. Hell, even right now at 40k+ most people would honestly struggle to get even half of one.

I just ignore all the bonehead moves I made in 2017/18 when thinking what some of that would be worth today if I put it to where I should lol It's all a part of the process though and consider it tuition. I think pretty much everyone falls for the 1000x alt coin dreams at first, just too enticing. I learned a lot of valuable lessons that apply to life/investing overall, without that financial pain I would never of had the motivation to course correct and really put the time in to understand what I am doing. Overall, I feel incredibly fortunate being in the position I am today and thankfully always kept a majority BTC and to a lesser extent ETH so was able to recover. I started dipping my toe in spring 2017, my first BTC buy was at 1800 or right around there, by end of that summer I had pushed a lot of money in. Sounds like you got in at the perfect time.

Totally agree, someone holding just 1 BTC will be pretty significant in the future. Unfortunately, seems like the majority of less sophisticated smaller money retail is pretty much in all alts and small caps chasing that lottery ticket. My brother got in at the same time I did but went all small cap alts thinking he would out perform, he lost it all and today we have completely different outcomes.

 

[Solomon]

I truly believe once ETF's get approved it's going to be pandamonium. The social media hype and FOMO is a real thing. I'm gonna be taking profits all the way up lol

 

[sangheilios]

I truly believe once ETF's get approved it's going to be pandamonium. The social media hype and FOMO is a real thing. I'm gonna be taking profits all the way up lol

I agree, but I also feel that there is going to be some sort of black swan/catalyst event where we see the markets plunge. It just doesn't make sense for it to be this easy for retail right now.

 

[jaygreenb]

I agree, but I also feel that there is going to be some sort of black swan/catalyst event where we see the markets plunge. It just doesn't make sense for it to be this easy for retail right now.

Right, seems like anytime there is an obvious play it does not happen or at least on the timeline people expect. Tend to agree that there is something that will derail the hopes and dreams of retail lol

 

[sangheilios]

Right, seems like anytime there is an obvious play it does not happen or at least on the timeline people expect. Tend to agree that there is something that will derail the hopes and dreams of retail lol

What we are seeing kind of reminds me of early 2020, the market had been running pretty hot and the halving wasn't all that far off. However, middle of March the lockdowns commence and all the markets, including crypto, crashed hard. I'm not saying we are going to see some insane carnage in the streets but I'm very sure that sometime between now and the halving there will be a sizeable correction. The market can't run this hot in such a short period of time without this occuring, and no a 5-10% drop in price is NOT what I am talking about. It could be something like BTC tanks to 30-35k, if this were to happen ETH could be at 1400-1700 and alts could see some very impressive discounts.

 

[jaygreenb]

What we are seeing kind of reminds me of early 2020, the market had been running pretty hot and the halving wasn't all that far off. However, middle of March the lockdowns commence and all the markets, including crypto, crashed hard. I'm not saying we are going to see some insane carnage in the streets but I'm very sure that sometime between now and the halving there will be a sizeable correction. The market can't run this hot in such a short period of time without this occuring, and no a 5-10% drop in price is NOT what I am talking about. It could be something like BTC tanks to 30-35k, if this were to happen ETH could be at 1400-1700 and alts could see some very impressive discounts.

Oh yeah, if you Bitcoin/crypto teaches you anything, almost always pays to be patient. Any time you get that emotional gut reaction to either fomo in or sell, probably a good time to think about doing the opposite. It is like other markets on steroids.

 

[Solomon]

Today is a historic day as BItcoin ETF's are approved the scam narrative is dead!
been buying all types of cryptos but Bitcoin SV has been doing very well up 96% in the last 30 days
2024 is going to up up and down, down and up, it's all about dollar cost averaging
See you guys at Lake Tahoe!

peace

 

[sangheilios]

Today is a historic day as BItcoin ETF's are approved the scam narrative is dead!
been buying all types of cryptos but Bitcoin SV has been doing very well up 96% in the last 30 days
2024 is going to up up and down, down and up, it's all about dollar cost averaging
See you guys at Lake Tahoe!

peace

BSV is a hard fork of Bcash, I'd stay away from some junk alt like that. Short term price action like that is not an indicator of it's longer term potential or relevance.

However, the BTC ETF is a huge deal in my opinion with regards to the long term viability of the asset as a whole. Shorter term I'm expecting a lot of volatility over the next 3-8 months or so, particularly with the halving, the election and the possibility of rate cuts by the FED. I also think there has been a lot of FOMO lately with this ETF news, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see some sort of big sell off. While the ETF is a big deal for BTC specifically, this will also have an affect on the broader crypto market as a whole. It's basically just another vessel to which capital can more readily enter into the space, and for sure it will spill over into the alts. No reason to be chasing speculative low cap coins, just stick with the basics and investors will be fine.

I've been in this space for close to 6 years now, which is hard to believe, and it's been a crazy ride. Most people are short term tourists in the market where they tend to enter in and ultimately sell at a loss, only to never revisit the space. Those that have stuck around through the toughest points in the market are those that have and will do well. It didn't matter if you bought BTC at 3k vs. 6k from 2018-2020 for instance. No one can perfectly time the market, just load up on solid projects when the market has a discount and then sit back when it runs hard.

 

[Solomon]

BSV is a hard fork of Bcash, I'd stay away from some junk alt like that. Short term price action like that is not an indicator of it's longer term potential or relevance.

However, the BTC ETF is a huge deal in my opinion with regards to the long term viability of the asset as a whole. Shorter term I'm expecting a lot of volatility over the next 3-8 months or so, particularly with the halving, the election and the possibility of rate cuts by the FED. I also think there has been a lot of FOMO lately with this ETF news, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see some sort of big sell off. While the ETF is a big deal for BTC specifically, this will also have an affect on the broader crypto market as a whole. It's basically just another vessel to which capital can more readily enter into the space, and for sure it will spill over into the alts. No reason to be chasing speculative low cap coins, just stick with the basics and investors will be fine.

I've been in this space for close to 6 years now, which is hard to believe, and it's been a crazy ride. Most people are short term tourists in the market where they tend to enter in and ultimately sell at a loss, only to never revisit the space. Those that have stuck around through the toughest points in the market are those that have and will do well. It didn't matter if you bought BTC at 3k vs. 6k from 2018-2020 for instance. No one can perfectly time the market, just load up on solid projects when the market has a discount and then sit back when it runs hard.

I learned in Crypto that tech narrative is just that a narrative. A lot of these altcoins are vaporware. I'm here to make money, so you follow the narratives this is why the AI coins have exploded in the last 12 months, this is why memecoins are still a thing in 2024. Not saying invest in memecoins but I'm saying if you want to make money you gotta go where the narratives are. Not saying tech isn't important but I'm not buying BSV to hold until 2050 I'm buying BSV cause I'm looking at the charts and I see it's gonna double it's previous all-time high then cash in, It's about a profit simple and plain. Yeah I'm a Degen but I know my limits if it doesn't make it boo-hoo I'm still in profit *shurgs*

I have long term bags, short term bags that's how I've survied in the bear market you win some you lose some

 

[jaygreenb]

I learned in Crypto that tech narrative is just that a narrative. A lot of these altcoins are vaporware. I'm here to make money, so you follow the narratives this is why the AI coins have exploded in the last 12 months, this is why memecoins are still a thing in 2024. Not saying invest in memecoins but I'm saying if you want to make money you gotta go where the narratives are. Not saying tech isn't important but I'm not buying BSV to hold until 2050 I'm buying BSV cause I'm looking at the charts and I see it's gonna double it's previous all-time high then cash in, It's about a profit simple and plain. Yeah I'm a Degen but I know my limits if it doesn't make it boo-hoo I'm still in profit *shurgs*

I have long term bags, short term bags that's how I've survied in the bear market you win some you lose some

I would just humbly suggest keep a healthy percentage in BTC and do not touch it. It is probably the best risk adjusted asymmetrical bet in our lifetime and the the decentralized aspect is what really matters in all of this. Decentralized, permissionless set rule value is the real innovation. Try not to fall into the trap like many do that you think you can outperform. Alts are basically trying to thread a needle on a price pump and in the moment it is a lot harder than it looks. Doesn't mean you can't degen too, I do, but don't miss the Forrest through the trees. I also became pretty involved in this space coming up on 7yrs and made every mistake in the book. Just some friendly advice.

 

[sangheilios]

I learned in Crypto that tech narrative is just that a narrative. A lot of these altcoins are vaporware. I'm here to make money, so you follow the narratives this is why the AI coins have exploded in the last 12 months, this is why memecoins are still a thing in 2024. Not saying invest in memecoins but I'm saying if you want to make money you gotta go where the narratives are. Not saying tech isn't important but I'm not buying BSV to hold until 2050 I'm buying BSV cause I'm looking at the charts and I see it's gonna double it's previous all-time high then cash in, It's about a profit simple and plain. Yeah I'm a Degen but I know my limits if it doesn't make it boo-hoo I'm still in profit *shurgs*

I have long term bags, short term bags that's how I've survied in the bear market you win some you lose some

My personal strategy, and I'm sure @jaygreenb may like this, is that the only thing you should seriously consider holding for the long term is BTC and maybe some ETH, and even ETH I'm a bit iffy on holding long-long term. Now, that does not mean you should not consider buying alts. For instance, ADA has been a relevant alt for 2 cycles now and still around and in the top 10. In 2021 it peaked at a little over $3, specifically $3.10, and through 2022 had tanked to just a hair under 25 cents. Buying an alt like this when it is at around 90% off from it's all time high or maybe even more is a fantastic opportunity to flip it for profit. Now, you could speculate all day how high ADA may go in the next major bull market, but it's only speculation. Maybe ADA hits $10, or maybe it just hits it's previous all time high. Either way, you want to look at where the market is at and consider exiting your position. Say the FOMO in the market is intense but ADA is at $4. Sure, you were hoping it would hit $10 but that may be the time to exit from at least some of your position. What I'm saying is that it's hard to say exactly how well a given alt will do and that a dollar cost averaging strategy both IN and OUT of the asset is probably the best move.

To sum it up, hold BTC and everything else is for profit.

Another idea that I've seen floating around a ton lately is how "this time is different" with all of this ETF stuff. I still believe we will see market cycles with crypto but the wild swings are going to become less and less volatile. BTC has rapidly matured and I could see us maybe do a 2x from the previous all time high of 69k in 2021, so somewhere around 120-150k for BTC. If we enter into a bear market, say in 2026, we might see BTC tank to 50k. That's still incredibly volatile, but it's honestly comparable to other big tech stocks, Tesla is a really good example. As time goes on and with each halving, I'm expecting the swings to be much less severe. However, I think there will still be a lot of money to be made with the alt market, but who knows what the future will bring. Regulation could come in perhaps change this space by quite a bit, I can't say for certain.

 

[sangheilios]

I would just humbly suggest keep a healthy percentage in BTC and do not touch it. It is probably the best risk adjusted asymmetrical bet in our lifetime and the the decentralized aspect is what really matters in all of this. Decentralized, permissionless set rule value is the real innovation. Try not to fall into the trap like many do that you think you can outperform. Alts are basically trying to thread a needle on a price pump and in the moment it is a lot harder than it looks. Doesn't mean you can't degen too, I do, but don't miss the Forrest through the trees. I also became pretty involved in this space coming up on 7yrs and made every mistake in the book. Just some friendly advice.

Alts are for making money but definitely not long term holds, as I mentioned above. Realistically, I don't see BTC doing even a 4x from where we are at, maybe 150k in 2025. However, many alts are still well off from their highs in 2021 and you could easily see far better returns as we enter into a bull market. The thing is to actually sell and take profit instead of holding for arbitrary numbers that you are just hoping for lol.

 

[jaygreenb]

Alts are for making money but definitely not long term holds, as I mentioned above. Realistically, I don't see BTC doing even a 4x from where we are at, maybe 150k in 2025. However, many alts are still well off from their highs in 2021 and you could easily see far better returns as we enter into a bull market. The thing is to actually sell and take profit instead of holding for arbitrary numbers that you are just hoping for lol.

You can definately make money with them, I would just bet the percentage who actually do and out perform BTC over a 4yr period is very low, even worse if you are new. Probably less than 5%. If it is someone's first cycle I can almost guarantee they get wrecked then washed out and disappear, which is the worst thing that you can do. If you aren't experienced, have the aptitude and emotional self control it is easy to get lost in the sauce during a bull market and think you are a genius. Happened to me my first go around! Thankfully though, I was always a majority BTC, stuck with it and course corrected. For those not lacking the qualities I previously mentioned and know the game as well as can execute, there is money to be made. Can also just be a scammer or influencer in on the pump and dump lol

 

[Solomon]

I would just humbly suggest keep a healthy percentage in BTC and do not touch it. It is probably the best risk adjusted asymmetrical bet in our lifetime and the the decentralized aspect is what really matters in all of this. Decentralized, permissionless set rule value is the real innovation. Try not to fall into the trap like many do that you think you can outperform. Alts are basically trying to thread a needle on a price pump and in the moment it is a lot harder than it looks. Doesn't mean you can't degen too, I do, but don't miss the Forrest through the trees. I also became pretty involved in this space coming up on 7yrs and made every mistake in the book. Just some friendly advice.

Been in the space 7 years as well, got in because of my buddies who became millionaires overnight flipping ICO's I never got into ICO"s thought it was to risky. Made every mistake in the book you can think of,also made some genius moves . Keep some BTC for the long term but the most money I ever made in my life has been due to alts. The key is to not be greedy and take profits on the way up and have a plan.

Cheers

 

[jaygreenb]

Been in the space 7 years as well, got in because of my buddies who became millionaires overnight flipping ICO's I never got into ICO"s thought it was to risky. Made every mistake in the book you can think of,also made some genius moves . Keep some BTC for the long term but the most money I ever made in my life has been due to alts. The key is to not be greedy and take profits on the way up and have a plan.

Cheers

I did not realize you had that much experience, usually just give my disclaimer to new people coming in but most usually have to learn the hard way. Easy to feel like a genius when the price action is supporting your assumptions. I have made a lot of money with some alts too, also lost a lot on others. At the time in 17/18, I made far more money than I ever had with ICO's, like most though I saw it all dwindle away. It was a pretty challenging period to go through but learned so many lessons that became invaluable later. Best of luck!