Trump is so stupid that he doesn't realize that folks are making fun of him by meming him into Nero

[corrector]

No it does not sound like asking.

You are apparently heavily biased because you never considered that it is very possible there WAS corruption.

Yes so you ask China and the Ukraine because you cant trust the FBI or CIA to do their jobs. Thanks for agreeing with my argument by admitting everything I just said. Two wrongs dont make a right.

 

[corrector]

1. He didn't ask. This is a very simple concept you are getting wrong.

2. Given that the FBI has had numerous levels of corruption exposed regarding the Russia conspiracy theory, and that Brennan the Muslim in the CIA was behind much of it....yeah, they are corrupt as hell.

3. Lastly, you are admitting then that Biden is corrupt, so what's the issue here?

You are a real patriot.

 

[EyeBRollin]

You just linked me to a map that has Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and PA going to Clinton.

No. That map forecasts about a 60% chance for those to go to Clinton. That’s not even one standard deviation. You will fail statistics class interpreting that as anything close to certainty.

 

[corrector]

I am.

Unlike Comey, Brennan and the other corrupt bastards.

I see you have run out of logic and resorted to personal attacks. Typical.

Putin agrees with you.

 

[corrector]

I'm not trying to downplay it and I don't blame people for taking precautions.

The problem is that people don't know exactly what to panic about.

The CDC has estimated that H1N1 killed 284,000 globally, and 80% of those people were under the age of 65.

With Covid-19, 80% of deaths in China were in those over 65 years old, and 75% of those were already sick before they got it.

We're seeing more of the same in the US and other counties.

Generally, the mortality rate doesn't exceed that of common influenza until you hit the 50+ age groups (0.2 to 0.4% at ages below 50) , and it doesn't exceed the estimated 3% (which is a high estimate by the way, with the lower at being 1%) until we hit 60+. Even then, 75% of reported deaths in this age group are with those already sick and already with a compromised immune system.

Anyone with a compromised immune system can die of the regular flu.

So the real worry here is exactly how many people have been dying of this virus that aren't already at a high risk of a life threatening scenario brought about by any common virus due to an already weak immune system?

I don't think that comes out to 4.5 million US Citizens.

The issue is more the panic buying as you mentioned before. You need to panic buy because shelves will be empty if you actually need it yourself. My motivations is partially worrying about empty shelves if I need.something rather than the.virus. i think its still good practise.to use hand sanitizers and keep hands clean and have gloves for yourself.

 

[EyeBRollin]

A 60% chance of winning in politics is a virtual lock in victory.

They were wrong.

That’s an F in statistics. “Virtual lock” in a data set is a minimum of two standard deviation units (95% certainty).

 

[EyeBRollin]

Were talking about politics, not the odds in a game of dice.

Human nature, deception, October Surprises, Hillary's emails, Comey... all kinds of sh*t going on.

You can sit here and talk standard deviations all day, but it doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost, the polls were off, most the MSM looked stupid and half the country had a hissy fit when they got a dose of that reality.

The polls were dead on accurate in 2016 and 2018. Ignore them at your peril.

 

[EyeBRollin]

As expected, those in the video omit the complex methodology used in the polling samples. Furthermore, National polls are far more accurate than state level polls because they are taken over time. Hundreds of polls over a 2 year cycle is far more accurate than 10 election polls taken in Michigan a few months before Election Day.

But do you boo boo. Trump will certainly lose the popular vote by 5-9% unless something earth shattering alters the current trajectory of the generic ballot. Good luck!

 

[EyeBRollin]

The point was simple. There were too many human nuances in play. You can talk as complicated as you want to, but the results won’t change.

Those are accounted for in all high quality polls.

The polls were off. Trump won. It’s etched in history.

The polls were correct. Numbers don’t lie.

You know presidential elections are not determined by the popular vote. I know you really wish that was the case, but it’s not. There is an electoral college for a reason.

Another false statement. Popular vote and electoral college results are correlated. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7% as the generic ballot currently suggests, he will also lose the electoral college.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Lol. Ok. We’ll just have to wait and see in November.

Can’t wait to see Trump lose!!

EDIT: @Amante Silvestre looks like a few betting sites peg Trump’s chances at 51-62%for re-election. You gonna call that a virtual lock?

 

[EyeBRollin]

At 51 no. But over 60? Yeah.

Told you. I’ll eat my boots if I’m wrong.

If you’ve ever played casino blackjack for money, book (billions of mathematical simulations) says to always double down on 11.

People often won’t do it against the dealer 10 value cards, but that hand 11 vs 10 is a 6-5 (55% win chance) advantage for the player. At 55%, you lose often. Way too often.

...that’s what Vegas says Trumps odds are right now.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

Were talking about politics, not the odds in a game of dice.

Human nature, deception, October Surprises, Hillary's emails, Comey... all kinds of sh*t going on.

You can sit here and talk standard deviations all day, but it doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost, the polls were off, most the MSM looked stupid and half the country had a hissy fit when they got a dose of that reality.

An insightful documentary that exposes how Team Trump won the presidency through social media is ‘The Great Hack’.

We live in personal confirmation bias reality bubbles. Having an account on FB, creates a minimum of 5k datapoints (due to all the preferences of your social circle)

Clinton spent about 50k in targeted ads, Trump over 5mil.

I’m not a Trump fan but I respect what he accomplished. As a laughing stock in a large field of competitors, he owned them all.

He’s been able to survive political crises that would normally ended careers.
He is unapologetic for his behavior.
As much as I hate to admit it, He is a sexual male dominate in his own created reality.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Yes, but you’re talking about the odds of a card game. You’re odds aren’t going to go up or down because of the news or how people react a certain way. A card isn’t going to be deceptive over it’s true value. A particular card isn’t going to become more or less likely to come up just because you put down more money on the table than the other guy. Betters May bluff in poker, but the cards don’t lie.


Politics isn’t cards.

Statistics are what they are. You may want 60% to equal 100% but it doesn’t. 4/10 times you will still lose. You get an F.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Not the polls I saw in 2016.

Never bothered in 2018, we got the election that mattered.

Dead on accurate.

2018 House Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House elections

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2018 Senate Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Don’t cry when Trump loses.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Now show me his 2016 prediction.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#margins

The final spread was Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Johnson 3.3%.

For you math majors, the forecast was well within the margin of error.

And the post election analysis:

What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.…

fivethirtyeight.com

Trust math, folks.

 

[EyeBRollin]

It's March and the election isn't until November. We're still not 100% sure who the Dem candidate is, nor do we know if there will be a formidable third party candidate. Plus we're in the middle of a global health and economic roller coaster. There's still a looooong way to go and any "odds" at present time are just that.

However I would probably trust Harrah's over Nate Silver, lol.

Actually the odds today are >99% that Biden will be the Dem nominee. The last few national polls show almost a 20% lead over Sanders and even larger polling lead in delegate rich Michigan this evening.

Now THAT is what we call certainty.

The generic ballot just measures National mood in an election cycle. Because it’s taken continuously over 2 years, its the most stable polling indicator.

 

[EyeBRollin]

In the GOP, Trump leads William Weld 833 delegates to 1. I did not know William Weld was a candidate.

Some states completely shut down their Republican primary. Can’t have any challenge to Emperor Trump!

 

[EyeBRollin]

Funny, when you go back and look at Nate Silvers work, he seemed to be pushing an agenda.

The guy was wrong EVERY STEP OF THE WAY regarding Trump.

Nate Silver Said Donald Trump Had No Shot. Where Did He Go Wrong?

For the past six months, one big question has loomed over the 2016 election: Is the candidacy of Donald J. Trump an amusing bit of reality TV or a...

slate.com

I think the porblem here is people believeing anything anti-Trump because they WANT IT to be true.

This is no different than hearing a girl tell you "oh me and that guy are just friends".

No, he clearly said in 2016 there is a high degree of uncertainty and that a 30% chance of Trump victory is significant.

We know from statistics that anything less than 2 standard deviations (95%) is uncertain, and only one standard deviation (middle 68%) is basically a coin flip.

Nate Silver himself says polls are garbage....

Not all polls are equal. The methodology matters. Individual polls taken in isolation are useless. However, aggregates taken over time are highly predictive.

“Law of large numbers”

 

[EyeBRollin]

"Four years ago, the Free Press and EPIC-MRA reported results of a poll the weekend ahead of that year’s Democratic [Michigan] primary that showed Hillary Clinton with a 25-point lead on Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont. It was one of several polls that showed the former secretary of state with such a lead.

"Sanders went on to win a narrow 1.4-percentage-point victory in the primary, however, as younger voters, who overwhelmingly supported Sanders, came out in much greater numbers than expected and he ran up large vote totals outside metro Detroit compared with Clinton. It was a signature surprise win for Sanders and one that Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes statistical and polling data, said could count among “the greatest polling errors in primary history.”

Joe Biden holds 24-point lead vs. Bernie Sanders in Michigan primary, Free Press poll says

The latest Free Press/EPIC-MRA poll shows Joe Biden with a 24-point lead over Bernie Sanders heading into Tuesday's Michigan presidential primary

eu.freep.com

Sounds like a ****ty poll.

It was clear he was wrong every step of the way regarding Trump, and only at the end did Nate give a possibity for Trump to win. Mostly out of fear I would wager.

Aggregates from $hitty polls make.....$hitty aggregates.

Sounds like his personal assessment about Trump as a candidate was different from the actual election forecast.

 

[EyeBRollin]

More like his history of forecasting Trump was outrageously wrong right up until the morning of the election, where he then hedged his bets to save future credibility.

The 2016 primary forecast looks accurate:

Iowa Republican Caucus Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight

Polls and predictions for the 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

It looks like you’re having trouble separating mathematical interpretations with what people personally say about a candidate.

One can think Trump is a clown but still accept if odds shoot to 95% chance of re-election he will be a certain favorite to win.