Thoughts on what's going on in Afghanistan?

[Dust 2 Dust]

Exactly right. For years now the US has been trying to ‘spread Democracy’ to these countries.
What we’ve forgotten and failed to teach is it takes a tremendous sacrifice to get one and keep it.
For those countries effected by us, the price is too high so they stay low effort Tribal even though some people are killed in the transitions …

The warmongers never learn. Literally, nothing was learned from Vietnam or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

 

[bat soup]

China now has direct access to Africa. Instead of having to sail through the South China Sea, they can set up railways through Afghanistan, connect to Iran, and have ports in Iran from which to sail to Africa.

Iran would welcome Chinese presence in their country to dissuade US aggression.

China now owns Africa's resources AND Afghanistan's resources, with the full consent of local leaders who are all on the payroll.

This is what WINNING looks like...


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Good luck setting up a railway or anything else with the Taliban running the show.

The last thing the Chinese would want to do is open up that border.

They are just happy to see America defeated because, make no mistake, China sees the USA as an enemy.

 

[Dust 2 Dust]

All mute now. America leaves. Taliban agreed with our former president’s epic peace treaty and will not allow terrorists in the country or allow terrorist camps to exist within its borders. Afghanistan United like never before.

That’s a big win.

Obama and Biden knew the war was unwinnable back in 2010, but they couldn't bring themselves to withdraw the troops then. Trump was trying to clean up the mess.

 

[Georgepithyou]

The Viet Cong was essentially destroyed after Tet with 50,000 dead and wounded fighters. The war was ultimately lost because we couldn't seal the borders preventing the NVA from infiltrating down the Ho Chi Mihn Trail. The same mistake was repeated in Afghanistan. To defeat a cross border insurgency you have to seal off the border otherwise the insurgency is impossible to defeat. The US and NATO could never win as long as the Pakistan-Afghan border wasn't sealed. The terrain of Afghanistan simply makes this nearly impossible.

The funny thing is the USSR was winning the war in Afghanistan, you already Had plenty of Russian men marrying into powerful afghan families. If it wasn't for American intervention the taliban would not have gotten so powerful.

Afghanistan today would be a Liberal and prosperous country. Look at photos of Afghanistan and it's women before the Taliban took over.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OfGJ4DWI9FU/UlwD5W9NUgI/AAAAAAAAAYM/89r5Kdn5d88/s1600/afg+-+before+and+after.JPG

 

[bat soup]

The Viet Cong was essentially destroyed after Tet with 50,000 dead and wounded fighters. The war was ultimately lost because we couldn't seal the borders preventing the NVA from infiltrating down the Ho Chi Mihn Trail. The same mistake was repeated in Afghanistan. To defeat a cross border insurgency you have to seal off the border otherwise the insurgency is impossible to defeat. The US and NATO could never win as long as the Pakistan-Afghan border wasn't sealed. The terrain of Afghanistan simply makes this nearly impossible.

I wonder if they could learn from Morocco in this sense. The "Moroccan wall" in Western Sahara actually is a series of walls protecting the cities. At first they were built close to the cities but later expanded east.

However, I think in Afghanistan and Vietnam the problem is partly that the enemy looks exactly the same as regular citizens and they can move back and forward whilst blending in.

 

[Georgepithyou]

I wonder if they could learn from Morocco in this sense. The "Moroccan wall" in Western Sahara actually is a series of walls protecting the cities. At first they were built close to the cities but later expanded east.

However, I think in Afghanistan and Vietnam the problem is partly that the enemy looks exactly the same as regular citizens and they can move back and forward whilst blending in.

Why didn't America take the taliban out from the inside? Surely it isn't that hard to pay some of the top brass off or even infiltrate it.

 

[bat soup]

Why didn't America take the taliban out from the inside? Surely it isn't that hard to pay some of the top brass off or even infiltrate it.

Actually it is. These are religious fanatics.

 

[Xenom0rph]

Good luck setting up a railway or anything else with the Taliban running the show.

The last thing the Chinese would want to do is open up that border.

They are just happy to see America defeated because, make no mistake, China sees the USA as an enemy.

It isnt just China that wants that railway, Iran wants it too. Iran wants a pipeline to sell oil directly to China and it wants a transport route to increase trade with China.

While it's true that most Afghanis are Sunni and Iran is Shia, they have historical and cultural ties that make them willing to cooperate with Iran.

Afghanistan is also a poor country that will welcome Chinese investment.

As for the border, the Taliban want to keep their people inside the country and the Chinese aren't hindered by woke politics, they have no problem gunning down anyone that even looks like a terrorist. Nobody is gonna be able to sneak across that border, especially because that border is mountainous, arid, inhospitable and constantly under satellite surveillance.

The Taliban are in a strong negotiating position, they have 3 countries that want their cooperation: China, Iran and Russia. All have economic interest in that region.

If they play their cards right, they can become a regional power. They will be flush with Chinese investment money, supported by Iran's oil and armed with Russia's weapons (and also American weapons left behind)...

 

[Fruitbat]

Those Vietnamese are not to be fvcked with

I’m married to one and I can attest to this

 

[Fruitbat]

It isnt just China that wants that railway, Iran wants it too. Iran wants a pipeline to sell oil directly to China and it wants a transport route to increase trade with China.

While it's true that most Afghanis are Sunni and Iran is Shia, they have historical and cultural ties that make them willing to cooperate with Iran.

Afghanistan is also a poor country that will welcome Chinese investment.

As for the border, the Taliban want to keep their people inside the country and the Chinese aren't hindered by woke politics, they have no problem gunning down anyone that even looks like a terrorist. Nobody is gonna be able to sneak across that border, especially because that border is mountainous, arid, inhospitable and constantly under satellite surveillance.

The Taliban are in a strong negotiating position, they have 3 countries that want their cooperation: China, Iran and Russia. All have economic interest in that region.

If they play their cards right, they can become a regional power. They will be flush with Chinese investment money, supported by Iran's oil and armed with Russia's weapons (and also American weapons left behind)...

Afghanistan is currently an enemy of Iran. The sunni/ shi’ite rift is deep.

The one thing which did happen when the US and coalition got in there is that suddenly the poppy and junk market jumped dramatically. Makes you think, doesn’t it?

If China manage to build mines there (and I can tell you, that is a 20 year plan at least and I would wager money now that no new mine will be constructed to production there before 2045) then all power to them.

It would be ironic if a load of religious fundamentalists helped mine metals which build phones and equiptrmnrnt which is banned in their country.

I think many are overestimating the taliban and afghanis ability to do anything competently. They will take Chinese money and plough it into corruption as per usual.

The Chinese are only 2 steps away from westerners. They have a decadent society and are totally non Islamic. It won’t be too long before they upset each other.

The only way to deal with fundamentalists is to leave them cut off from the world of wealth and Medicine they despise

 

[Pandora]

However, I think in Afghanistan and Vietnam the problem is partly that the enemy looks exactly the same as regular citizens and they can move back and forward whilst blending in.

The Taliban was the regular citizen...to a large degree. The regular citizen was sympathetic to the Taliban because they were the same tribe. They shared more in common with the Taliban than the invader. Same dynamic in Vietnam.

 

[bat soup]

It isnt just China that wants that railway, Iran wants it too. Iran wants a pipeline to sell oil directly to China and it wants a transport route to increase trade with China.

While it's true that most Afghanis are Sunni and Iran is Shia, they have historical and cultural ties that make them willing to cooperate with Iran.

Afghanistan is also a poor country that will welcome Chinese investment.

As for the border, the Taliban want to keep their people inside the country and the Chinese aren't hindered by woke politics, they have no problem gunning down anyone that even looks like a terrorist. Nobody is gonna be able to sneak across that border, especially because that border is mountainous, arid, inhospitable and constantly under satellite surveillance.

The Taliban are in a strong negotiating position, they have 3 countries that want their cooperation: China, Iran and Russia. All have economic interest in that region.

If they play their cards right, they can become a regional power. They will be flush with Chinese investment money, supported by Iran's oil and armed with Russia's weapons (and also American weapons left behind)...

We'll have to see what happens, but if the Taliban are willing to cooperative with a country that is putting muslims in concentration camps they would quikcly lose legitimacy in the eyes of both their own people and the rest of the world. I'd imagine if that border opens up, it could lead to an insurgency within the Uighur region of China. This might happen anyway, since Afghanistan is flooded with all kinds of weapons.

 

[Dust 2 Dust]

The funny thing is the USSR was winning the war in Afghanistan, you already Had plenty of Russian men marrying into powerful afghan families. If it wasn't for American intervention the taliban would not have gotten so powerful.

Afghanistan today would be a Liberal and prosperous country. Look at photos of Afghanistan and it's women before the Taliban took over.

The funny thing is the USSR was winning the war in Afghanistan, you already Had plenty of Russian men marrying into powerful afghan families. If it wasn't for American intervention the taliban would not have gotten so powerful.

Afghanistan today would be a Liberal and prosperous country. Look at photos of Afghanistan and it's women before the Taliban took over.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OfGJ4DWI9FU/UlwD5W9NUgI/AAAAAAAAAYM/89r5Kdn5d88/s1600/afg+-+before+and+after.JPG

The top picture was most likely taken in Kabul. The soviets had allies in the cities but were hated in the countryside. The rural areas were calling for Jihad to oust the invaders and I dont blame them.The soviets failed to secure the afghan-pakistan border which allowed the CIA to smuggle arms and stinger missiles to the mujihadeen. Jihadis from other nations poured across the border for endless war.

 

[Blacksheep]

Doesn’t really matter what I think, but the blame game has already started and that Always delays at least a semi-truthful disclosure regarding the cause of any Giant military Clusterfvck …

Do you think it might have something to do with China/Russia getting together?

Since there is a tension running with US and China.

Don't know if a war is gonna happen, but that thing on afghanistan sounds very weird.

 

[Billtx49]

Do you think it might have something to do with China/Russia getting together?

No, it’s incompetence from the Top down being involved in what should have been a well planned and employed military disengagement and friendly evacuation procedure.
Friendlies first, then sensitive equipment destruction, then base closures and military evacuation ….
We will all be lucky if this doesn’t turn into a hostage situation over three men not having a clue about what they’re doing.

 

[Blacksheep]

No, it’s incompetence from the Top down being involved in what should have been a well planned and employed military disengagement and friendly evacuation procedure.
Friendlies first, then sensitive equipment destruction, then base closures and military evacuation ….
We will all be lucky if this doesn’t turn into a hostage situation over three men not having a clue about what they’re doing.

Hope that hostage situation doesnt happen :/

 

[Billtx49]

Hope that hostage situation doesnt happen :/

I do also, but last I heard we don’t have a big enough perimeter around Kabul airport and our citizens further out (est. 15K) have no travel help or instructions coming yet other than checking Facebook and hoping the Taliban doesn’t take down the internet …

 

[Billtx49]

Yep, how did I miss the logic of being an American and working for a paycheck in the midst of a hostile armed guerrilla force that hates Americans.
Hell, if I was still young and foolish, I’d do it, but my foolish days are in my past now.

Now back to reality, think of the thrill of a beheading… wonder if they serve popcorn at those events. I hear you don’t want to get a free entrance ticket though…

 

[Kotaix]

We'll have to see what happens, but if the Taliban are willing to cooperative with a country that is putting muslims in concentration camps they would quikcly lose legitimacy in the eyes of both their own people and the rest of the world. I'd imagine if that border opens up, it could lead to an insurgency within the Uighur region of China. This might happen anyway, since Afghanistan is flooded with all kinds of weapons.

Afghanistan doesn't have the cultural cohesion to invade anyone, and China would probably carpet bomb any muslim insurgency in their own territory into oblivion.

I certainly hope that the Taliban will behave somewhat civilized so that we don't have a huge influx of refugees into the US. The sh!tlibs are already calling to open the floodgates of immigration for all the "refugees"

 

[Billtx49]

Afghanistan doesn't have the cultural cohesion to invade anyone, and China would probably carpet bomb any muslim insurgency in their own territory into oblivion.

I certainly hope that the Taliban will behave somewhat civilized so that we don't have a huge influx of refugees into the US. The sh!tlibs are already calling to open the floodgates of immigration for all the "refugees"

The Taliban might be up for a few upcoming extracurricular activities. Just heard a US Congressman Meuser say we left 158 blackhawks behind.…
Maybe they go after some Paki nukes.