I am 100% convinced that the college debt bubble is going to make the housing bubble

Vice

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The Inside Man said:
Most farmers in general are not millionaires. I am surrounded by them and no one is driving a lexus or bmw, let alone the kinds of cars millionaires drive. They don't even have new trucks.
Common misconception right there; not all millionares feel the need to purchase new/expensive vehicles. Plus it can be difficult to keep and maintain a high end car in rural areas, so it's not practical, especially since the average dude won't be able to change the oil filter on some higher end cars.

It's really all about personal preference and practicality, and whether or not they feel the need to upgrade their vehicles.
 

The Inside Man

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Good point.

The point I was trying to make is that I live around a lot of farmers who are demonstrably not millionares. They are earning a middle class living.
 

Vice

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The Inside Man said:
Good point.

The point I was trying to make is that I live around a lot of farmers who are demonstrably not millionares. They are earning a middle class living.
Do you think it's possible that they make millions, but the cost of operating the farm leaves them with a middle class salary? I don't know anything about the farming industry to know.
 

Alle_Gory

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Vice said:
Do you think it's possible that they make millions, but the cost of operating the farm leaves them with a middle class salary? I don't know anything about the farming industry to know.
Revenues and profits/income are NOT the same.
 

FutureSpartan

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Danger,

I don't disagree with the free market view at all. I just don't believe that its the answer to all of society's problems.

Again, this whole theme of "revere only the producers of society" is
narrow-minded and dogmatic. Yes, they serve an important function but they are only one part of the economic engine.

First of all, any successful producing entrepreneur should owe some of their success to the WORKERS who make the product and CONSUMERS who buy and use their product. If consumers don't have the purchasing power to actually consume the products, well then what good is being a "producer"?.

Henry Ford understood this. Paid his worker 5 dollars day which was well above the "market rate" at the time for an auto factory worker. This did two major things

1. Motivated workers to perform more effectively and efficiently and increased morale.

2. Allowed workers the purchasing power to actually afford the cars they were manufacturing. This basically brought some of Ford's own money back to him which increased production and lowered per-car costs.

At the time many of his business colleagues called him a "mad socialist" yet his practices were credited for nearly doubling Ford's profits from 30 million to 60 million from 1914-1916.

Middle and working class people spend most of their disposable income on
consumable goods and services. Would it stand to reason that successful entrepreneurs (the producers of society) actually benefit from mild wealth redistribution because the money eventually flows back to them via consumption anyways?

When you have a large gap between the wealthy and poor, and a shrinking middle class, its hurts EVERYONE. The wealthy have a harder time receiving consistent returns on their real businesses, because the purchasing power of the middle and working class (the CONSUMERS) is stagnant or shrinking. This forces them to put their excess wealth in speculative investing and financial derivatives, instruments which provide great returns during good economic times but add no value to society (essentially gambling on price movements) and can tank an entire economy during downturns (as witnessed in the last financial crisis).

Unfettered free markets is just as unworkable as pure communism. Both eventually become unstable and collapse. A system that falls somewhere in the middle, that balances the need for incentive and profit while preserving social order and the welfare of the general population benefits all socioeconomic classes.

How much of "free market" and "public intervention" is necessary to achieve this will always be up for debate which is why this discussion is taking place.
 

macallik

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anyone who takes financial advice from this (or any) thread on SS gets what they deserve.
 

Wilko

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anyone who takes financial advice from this (or any) thread on SS gets what they deserve.
The discussion is about economic principles not financial advice.
 

FoolsCause

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College students should consider living with their parents for at least the first two years and attending the local community college.
 

Outsider

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Danger said:
The last financial crisis was caused by excessive debt, fueled by Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, the Federal Reserve and Banks who knew they could sell faulty mortgages. The combination of Socialistic policies (price setting via the Federal Reserve), MORE Socialistic policies (Fannie and Freddy setup by a Government who believes people are ENTITLED to a home), and Banks who saw an opportunity to profit from said Socialistic policies and took steps to loan money to people whom they knew would never be able to pay it back.
According to Paul Krugman, a journalist for The New York Times, this is not true.

In his article Wall Street Whitewash he discusses how republican commission members have sabotaged the investigation into the financial crisis.

Mr. Krugman says, "We should have realized the modern Republican Party is utterly dedicated to the Reaganite slogan that government is always the problem, never the solution. And, therefore, we should have realized that party loyalists, confronted with facts that don't fit the slogan, would adjust the facts."

Now I am not saying that you are a republican (I have no idea) but it seems to me you have a conservative view (what he calls "Reaganite" view) of the market and deregulation. I am just pointing out, that according to Mr. Krugman, you have "adjusted the facts."

He goes on to say, "It's not as if the story of the crisis is particularly obscure. First, there was a widely spread housing bubble, not just in the United States, but in Ireland, Spain, and other countries as well. This bubble was inflated by irresponsible lending, made possible both by bank deregulation and the failure to extend regulation to 'shadow banks,' which weren't covered by traditional regulation but nonetheless engaged in banking activities and created bank-type risks."

Next, he goes on to talk about after the bubble burst, we found out that Wall Street had created "a web of interconnection nobody understood." Because of this, when Lehman Brothers, which he notes is a medium sized bank, failed it threatened to "take down the whole world financial system."

"It's a straightforward story, but a story that the Republican members of the commission don't want told. Literally."

Okay now that you have the back story, finally, we get to the part where you and Mr. Krugman disagree. (Danger, if you have read this far, mad props, I know this is a lot, but I'm doing my best here to provide you with enough information so you can see where Mr. Krugman is coming from, and, more importantly, for a fair rebuttal.)

Now to the meat.

According to the article, "In the world according to the G.O.P. commissioners, it's all the fault of government do-gooders, who used various levers --- especially Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored loan-guarantee agencies --- to promote loans to low-income borrowers. Wall Street --- I mean the private sector --- erred only to the extent that it got suckered into going along with this government-created bubble."

Again, I have no idea of your political affiliations at this point, but I do think this fairly summarizes your argument, or at least you would agree with the G.O.P.'s view here.

Mr. Krugman counters this saying, "It's hard to overstate how wrongheaded all of this is. For one thing, as I've already noted, the housing bubble was international --- and Fannie and Freddie weren't guaranteeing mortgages in Latvia. Nor were they guaranteeing loans in commercial real estate, which also experienced a huge bubble."

Further, "Beyond that, the timing shows that private players weren't suckered into a government-created bubble. It was the other way around. During the peak years of housing inflation, Fannie and Freddie were pushed to the sidelines; they only got into dubious lending late in the game, as they tried to regain market share."

He explains the Republican commissioners' view as, "just doing their job, which is to sustain the conservative narrative. And a narrative that absolves the banks of any wrongdoing, that places all the blame on meddling politicians..."

Finally, he ends the article by saying, "Never mind relearning the case for bank regulation; what we learned, instead, is what happens when an ideology backed by vast wealth and immense power confronts inconvenient facts. And the answer is, the facts lose."

Alright, we've gotten through all of it. Now just to say a few things. First, please don't kill the messenger, I found this article and when I read it, sadly, what I though was, "oh this guy on sosuave posted something about this I wonder what he would say about this." Secondly, I would post a link to this article but you have to be a member of the website to read it, the only reason I have it is because I have the NYT Iphone app. This is why I tried to make this so comprehensive, so you can have the important parts of the article. (If you have an Iphone, it is under today's popular section, and the title is listed earlier.)

Hope to hear a response from you. Later.
 
U

user43770

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According to Paul Krugman, a journalist for The New York Times

I should have stopped right there. I didn't, unfortunately.


I am looking forward to Danger's response, though. Much respect, by the way, Danger. You've made this thread epic.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Danger again.
I don't even remember repping you. It must have been a gun issue.
 

Julius_Seizeher

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Keynesianism is to economics what astrology is to astronomy. That is not to say that there could be no way for demand-side economists to create sustainable initiatives in the free market economy, but so far all they have done is propose sending people checks in the mail. That dog ain't gonna hunt.

Even being the conservative Libertarian that I am, I have devised a potent demand-side economic initiative that I describe in full detail in my upcoming book. I'll tell you guys about it once it's out.

Here's the reason why free market capitalism is the greatest economic system in history, and why it will never be supplanted: there is no problem in the world too big to be solved, provided we are willing to allow someone to get rich from solving it.

Regarding the thread topic, I don't see as much reason to worry about student loan debt. Stay on the sunny side, folks - since 2007, the national savings rate has went from 0 to 6%. All economists agree, this is huge news and it is telling us that people are being more responsible with their money; they are paying down their debts and saving it.

I think the basic problem with the student loan system is that we just finance anybody to go to college. An "inconvenient truth" about the modern job market is now that everybody has a degree, they don't mean a whole lot. In the old days, you didn't have every tom, ****, and tyrese going to college, so degrees had premium value. Now that everybody has one, not so much. And the price of a degree has skyrocketed - from a financial standpoint, it's not the sure bet it used to be. If the system keeps evolving to its eventual conclusion, then you will need a Masters to work at McDs.

So I see the college bubble, but I don't think it's about money; the bubble is all these people thinking their degrees are a golden ticket when times have changed. And I admit, I went to college; I bought that line hook and sinker.
 

Outsider

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Great post(s) Danger and thanks for the response! I learned quite a bit about the author of the article (he looked innocent enough :crackup: ) and this whole catastrophe.

Sorry I couldn't reply faster, though.

Anyways, I kept up with 95% of what you said, and I can see it making sense. I really think the idea you have about moral hazard and fraud is a great point, although I don't really understand it.

If I understand you correctly (correct me if I'm wrong please) but the government made artificial demand and "created" a market for these toxic loans, derivatives or whatever. Now from this somehow there's a moral hazard (which from what I learned from my business law class, or accounting class back in college is: Someone gives you money to invest in something, say Company B, now you have their money and you could do the right thing and invest it in Company B, or you could take that money and try to put it into another entity; thus, the moral hazard is created where you can do the right thing or well the not so right thing)? Not that I disagree, but I don't really understand that. In other words, could you explain what the moral hazard is and how it fit into this whole thing.

Also, the fraud you talk about, could you elaborate on that. More specifically, what fraud was committed, and who was/were the bandit(s).

Okay, now that I've blabed on for awhile, I'll conclude this post.

Economics isn't my specialty by any means and neither is reading; so, maybe you explained what moral hazard was created and the fraud that was committed already, but could you go over that more in detail.
 

Alle_Gory

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Julius_Seizeher said:
Here's the reason why free market capitalism is the greatest economic system in history, and why it will never be supplanted: there is no problem in the world too big to be solved, provided we are willing to allow someone to get rich from solving it.
That's true, but as you see people also get rich from abusing the system. So you need some sort of regulation (quality control).

I think the basic problem with the student loan system is that we just finance anybody to go to college. An "inconvenient truth" about the modern job market is now that everybody has a degree, they don't mean a whole lot. In the old days, you didn't have every tom, ****, and tyrese going to college, so degrees had premium value. Now that everybody has one, not so much. And the price of a degree has skyrocketed - from a financial standpoint, it's not the sure bet it used to be. If the system keeps evolving to its eventual conclusion, then you will need a Masters to work at McDs.
The other problem is the colleges themselves. They water down the degrees so that they can recruit more students, and make more money. A Masters now is not the same quality of learning as a Masters 50 years ago.
 

synergy1

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Julius_Seizeher said:
I think the basic problem with the student loan system is that we just finance anybody to go to college. An "inconvenient truth" about the modern job market is now that everybody has a degree, they don't mean a whole lot. In the old days, you didn't have every tom, ****, and tyrese going to college, so degrees had premium value. Now that everybody has one, not so much. And the price of a degree has skyrocketed - from a financial standpoint, it's not the sure bet it used to be. If the system keeps evolving to its eventual conclusion, then you will need a Masters to work at McDs.

So I see the college bubble, but I don't think it's about money; the bubble is all these people thinking their degrees are a golden ticket when times have changed. And I admit, I went to college; I bought that line hook and sinker.
This dialogue is worth continuing, especially hearing about people who are contemplating going back to school. A few friends of mine are all going back to school mostly for seemingly useless degrees all whilst acquiring boatloads of debt.

Here is the article that sprang to my attention, it was posted today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ni...kruptcy-non-dischargeable-college-debt-bubble

The NIA has some tinfoil had rhetoric, and they clearly dislike lawyers. That aside, I think their comments about a college degree are fairly accurate and congruent with what folks here have been saying. A few qualitative key points to take note of is that all major commodities ( food, oil) have shown decreases in prices in the past decade while college tuition costs have only shown steady significant increases. At this rate, our kids' education will cost easily over 300k ( I didn't do the math, its just an estimate!)

The question is this: will a paradigm shift take place where people see it more prudent to start working rather than get useless degrees? Some fields like engineering and medicine will likely remain established within the university system, but many others we can do without. A follow up question is this; will cheaper more focused coursework develop so as to provide reliable entry level staff? For example, a software developer can finish in 1-2 years without the BS liberal arts reqs and the like and start working on JAVA, PHP and the like at the onset. Why bother offering a ton of 'fat' within a curriculum for a higher cost when you can offer quick and dirty applicable skill sets which translate into work...
 

Midnight_Oil

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I was listening to Dave Ramsey last night and had a good laugh.

Some poor bastard called in and had discovered that his new wife has $100k in student loan debt. She has a degree in social work.

I don't feel so bad about my $20k that I should be able to pay off in 2.5 to 3 years if I keep throwing money at it like I'm doing.
 

Quiksilver

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Depends why you are going to college/uni.

Are you going to college because you have a specific purpose?

Or are you going because you have no purpose?

Going to college is fine if you're there for a specific reason and have a clear and objective goal in mind for when you exit. Example being a job you desire where you need a specific skill set to perform. Go to college to learn that skill set.

Going to college because you don't know what you want to do, is a good way to waste a whole lot of your time and money.

-

I was in the latter group until end of first year, then I knew exactly what I wanted afterwards and tailored my degree towards it.

Going to college for the sake of going to college is a waste of your time and your professors.
 

f283000

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synergy1 said:
Why bother offering a ton of 'fat' within a curriculum for a higher cost when you can offer quick and dirty applicable skill sets which translate into work...
Because that's how colleges make money DUH!

I wouldn't worry about it too much unless it's december 25th, 2012 and nothing happened. Then you know the world did not end, but that also means you still got your debt and your screwed anyway. :D
 

synergy1

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f283000 said:
Because that's how colleges make money DUH!

I wouldn't worry about it too much unless it's december 25th, 2012 and nothing happened. Then you know the world did not end, but that also means you still got your debt and your screwed anyway. :D
I am not worrying. I came out of college with a high GPA, two degrees and netting money from graduate school. Some of us load up on debt, I went to a state school when the going was cheap.

My question is this; will there be a paradigm sift where people realize that college can be a massive waste of money? Will employers start to honor qualified individuals who seek employment even without taking a major bloated by useless classes? Why does an SQL programmer need to have taken a mythology class as well when instead they could have just gotten some practical experience elsewhere?

A great benefit of being an engineer by training isn't so much I do math or can solve complex problems, but rather ask critical questions. What is the cost/ benifit of dropping 100,000 dollars on an education when one could simply acquire working experience and bypass the education all together? I suspect a more in depth answer would be quite illuminating...
 

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Quiksilver

Depends why you are going to college/uni.

Are you going to college because you have a specific purpose?

Or are you going because you have no purpose?

Going to college is fine if you're there for a specific reason and have a clear and objective goal in mind for when you exit. Example being a job you desire where you need a specific skill set to perform. Go to college to learn that skill set.

Going to college because you don't know what you want to do, is a good way to waste a whole lot of your time and money.

Most people seem to forget that college is an investment, the question then becomes investment in what? What is your plan? What is your chosen career? Do you know where you are going when the degree is achieved? Do you have an estimate on the money you will be making?

Alot of people do not do their due diligence. There should be a RETURN on the college degree, whether that be going from making $15k a year to $45k a year, or $60k to $100k, etc. You have to be tactful, on your feet, and make sure your plan is on point. It's by far the people that do not put this amount of time into their plan that end up defaulting on the college loans or end up making well less then what they planned. It's these same people that will then spout out at the mouth on how college is a scam JUST BECAUSE THEY failed to plan.

Furthermore, when you actually do your planning, you might find that you don't even need a college degree for the field you are looking to go into. Again, it's all about planning.
 

BigJimbo

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macallik said:
anyone who takes financial advice from this (or any) thread on SS gets what they deserve.
Smartest dude on here! Props to you. Eh, you probably hate me...BUT...I don't care. That was golden! The rest are just a bunch of trolls who should be banned. Anyone pumping stocks or investment advice on this forum should be gone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEi2hKbgo0c&feature=related
Pour toi. Closest thing to a real gift that I can give you.
 
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