I am not saying exactly that it will fail, but at some point it has to stop being at odds with the governments of the world. For as long as the idea of money has existed, the right to print it is part of the spoils of victory for whoever has conquered the land. Even though it is digital, crypto still requires electricity and infrastructure to exist, and some government somewhere must provide those services. But why should they do so when crypto saps away their right to print funny money forever? China has already digitized their currency and started to crack down on crypto. At some point, our slow and backward government will eventually catch up. Maybe we'll have fedcoin. Maybe they will tax the hell out of crypto. Point being, the complete lack of regulation we have now is too good to be true and too good to last for very long.
This is not advice to either buy or sell anything, just caution over uncertainty. And also I think that traditional technical analysis, which works with every other market in the world, doesn't seem to be very useful with bitcoin, because of dramatic and unpredictable moves in both directions.