buying near the bottom

[ubercat]

Of course every profession has its lexicon.

I guess I m hoping for actionable advice. Volume s seems to be agreed. Does anyone have any other leading indicators?

 

[RickTheToad]

Everyone is waiting for the cases to level off. Since more are being tested, the numbers are going up. Thus, the swings in the market. Until then it will be heavy swings and the big money is betting lower. Another week or two and it may be time to buy some stock. Stay away from airlines, hotel, home builders, home repair, insurance, energy, etc.. Those are just being punished. Walmart, Generac, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, GE. I've been shorting 3x with an ETF. It's dumb money..

 

[ubercat]

E.g. new home starts, home sales, company investment and purchase intentions.

I was hoping for some lesser known ones that maybe don't get absorbed into the market price so quickly

 

[RickTheToad]

E.g. new home starts, home sales, company investment and purchase intentions.

I was hoping for some lesser known ones that maybe don't get absorbed into the market price so quickly

That's last quarter. You can try with some speculative biotech's, but it's very risky. If you are trying to pick winners, you will not be able to compete against the quant funds and their data/speed. Go for the suppliers.. drug companies, grocery, pharma, etc. Where ever you go, it's most likely going to go up; except for the industries that I mentioned in the previous post. Follow the money dude, don't look for new routes.

 

[BeExcellent]

Hmm, you may want to check with an independent agent. My loss of rent covers damage, evictions, nearly everything aside from act of God or war. My deductible is $500.00 on two separate multi-family properties.

I’m in a very small markets. My rents are often below $500/month. I know my investments and how to handle rents & insurance for my local areas. My entire nut across all my properties is about 5K so I can absorb that if I have to. I’m 60% free & clear so that helps.

Volatility is another thing to watch @ubercat because if you trade options you can do well on the volatility but it’s somewhat sophisticated and you need to know how to structure your contracts.

 

[RickTheToad]

I’m in a very small markets. My rents are often below $500/month. I know my investments and how to handle rents & insurance for my local areas. My entire nut across all my properties is about 5K so I can absorb that if I have to. I’m 60% free & clear so that helps.

Volatility is another thing to watch @ubercat because if you trade options you can do well on the volatility but it’s somewhat sophisticated and you need to know how to structure your contracts.

Shouldn't recommend options to a person who doesn't know how they are handled; puts vs calls and the spreads. Much harder to read correctly for even seasoned vets of the market.

 

[Poonani Maker]

I’m watching the markets closely myself...

In US Trump has declared no evictions or foreclosures can occur in April. I expect that might get extended into May. This is going to be awful for landlords like myself but hopefully some of my renters will pay. If not I get to make up the shortfall. Yay. Not. I understand it...but it ain’t gonna be comfortable. I’m not in the cash position I like to be in and I don’t dare fail to pay my private money guys...otherwise they may never lend to me again. So I’m going to get pinched a bit.

Renters will still owe the rent...but it will be deferred.

Financial markets HATE uncertainty. Things are too uncertain right now for anyone to time the market.

The shorts are making bank and will continue to do so for a while yet.

I’d more likely choose well run stable individual companies and buy either stock or options on those if you want to try and hit a home run. But the beta (risk) is high in doing some of that. Buying a good index fund once things stabilize is probably the best bet, then you’ll get the rise & recovery of the whole market. Smart money got out early and is sitting in cash or is shorting right now. Shorting obviously has risk...sitting in cash really doesn’t.

When trading volume goes way up on a rising day you’ll know institutions are getting back in.

I have only a few thousand in the markets right now. I pulled most everything out years ago to do real estate. I’m pleased with that decision even in today’s climate.

But like @ubercat I smell opportunity so Im paying attention.

Take advice at your own risk boys. Caveat emptor.

Cheers

 

[Poonani Maker]

Russia glutted the market with oil, thus oil's in the mid-20s, as oil goes so the market goes (usually a Lag so market's going much lower in my opinion). This oversupply of oil when this virus is going on already sinking it is a TELL, that whoever is in talks behind the scenes wanted to send the market Very far down in order to Nationalize OUR private companies like Boeing who's Asking for Billions in "bailout," but they don't just GIVE billions without CONTROL of the company from Then on (forever), so basically We're a Communist country now and a Coup d'etat has taken place as of March Friday 13th, 2020. America will Never be the same from last Friday onward. This is worse than Socialism. It's Communism and Fascism all in one. Prices driven down. Government or "The Fed" buys a huge chunk of all these otherwise "failed" companies and tells them what to make, when to make it, how to operate. It's a takeover. The stock market may never even Mean anything anymore after all this. This isn't capitalism. We are slaves and will be slaves or pigs for the slaughter (control). I've heard 18 months of quarantine being considered today.

 

[lizardking82]

Russia glutted the market with oil, thus oil's in the mid-20s, as oil goes so the market goes (usually a Lag so market's going much lower in my opinion). This oversupply of oil when this virus is going on already sinking it is a TELL, that whoever is in talks behind the scenes wanted to send the market Very far down in order to Nationalize OUR private companies like Boeing who's Asking for Billions in "bailout," but they don't just GIVE billions without CONTROL of the company from Then on (forever), so basically We're a Communist country now and a Coup d'etat has taken place as of March Friday 13th, 2020. America will Never be the same from last Friday onward. This is worse than Socialism. It's Communism and Fascism all in one. Prices driven down. Government or "The Fed" buys a huge chunk of all these otherwise "failed" companies and tells them what to make, when to make it, how to operate. It's a takeover. The stock market may never even Mean anything anymore after all this. This isn't capitalism. We are slaves and will be slaves or pigs for the slaughter (control). I've heard 18 months of quarantine being considered today.

Maybe a bit too dramatic? But for sure we are heading into an economic crisis where a lot of people will lose their jobs and will never find them again LOL

 

[BeExcellent]

Shouldn't recommend options to a person who doesn't know how they are handled; puts vs calls and the spreads. Much harder to read correctly for even seasoned vets of the market.

Agreed. I’m not giving investment advice. But this is what some sophisticated investors I know are doing.

 

[switch7]

Your like an American tourist overseas expecting everyone to speak English. The financial markets have their own language, every profession, trade and craft does.

Ask a question.

I asked you in another thread to highlight the intermediate fractal - which u ignored.

What edge do you suppose your technical analysis abilities can give you in picking a market bottom and how useful do you think they will be in trading a 1 off market bottom that might not happen again for another 10 to 15 years bearing in mind that any edge/setup probability has a random distribution.

And regarding your setup or TA, what rigor have you gone to to ensure that they are a valid edge bearing in mind that any sample size needs to be at least 1000 before an edge can begin to become reliable mathematically.

 

[bcude]

Ask a question.

It gives ‘tells’ prior to market turning points. This is observable and provable through direct observation.

Can you give an example of these 'tells' ?

@ubercat One thing to note is that the leaders of the previous bullmarket are not going to be the leaders in the coming one (most likely). So your previous household names wont do any good.
It doesn't matter what anyone is telling you about a specific stock. Price is always leading. I'm personally observing and buying fundamentally strong stocks that are withstanding this slaughter the best and they will also be the first to breakout when it's time. These are the leaders of the next bullmarket. That's where i keep my focus but my strategy might be different from yours, i'm shorter term momentum/swing trader.

What many people don't seem understand is that risk right now is much less than it was 2 months ago when everyone was making money, the only thing that is at extreme levels is uncertainty, and markets hate it. But it's like christmas if you're a long-term investor.
Spreading out your buy-points will never go wrong.
What i personally think is irrelevant but i would be very surprised if we bottom from here, too many people are still too complacent and look for buying opportunities which speaks for a real nasty shake-out before the true bottom is set. Need to see capitulation. Agree 100% with @synergy1

 

[RickTheToad]

Can you give an example of these 'tells' ?

@ubercat One thing to note is that the leaders of the previous bullmarket are not going to be the leaders in the coming one (most likely). So your previous household names wont do any good.
It doesn't matter what anyone is telling you about a specific stock. Price is always leading. I'm personally observing and buying fundamentally strong stocks that are withstanding this slaughter the best and they will also be the first to breakout when it's time. These are the leaders of the next bullmarket. That's where i keep my focus but my strategy might be different from yours, i'm shorter term momentum/swing trader.

What many people don't seem understand is that risk right now is much less than it was 2 months ago when everyone was making money, the only thing that is at extreme levels is uncertainty, and markets hate it. But it's like christmas if you're a long-term investor.
Spreading out your buy-points will never go wrong.
What i personally think is irrelevant but i would be very surprised if we bottom from here, too many people are still too complacent and look for buying opportunities which speaks for a real nasty shake-out before the true bottom is set. Need to see capitulation. Agree 100% with @synergy1

Bottom is another 2.5k or so. Short the rallies, but the dips with 3x ETFs. You can make some nice pocket change. Bought SPXS in premarket yesterday around 21.40, sold at around 25.00 later in the day. Just be careful and do not risk anything you are not okay with possibly losing.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Cruise ship companies pay almost zero in taxes and kept themselves deep in debt. Now they will ask for a bailout. This article talks about any bailout probably having strings that kill their sweet no tax deal.

Why Cruise Line Stocks May Be Doomed | The Motley Fool

A bailout may not be forthcoming, but even if it is, it could come with a serious catch.

www.fool.com

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

I asked you in another thread to highlight the intermediate fractal - which u ignored.

What edge do you suppose your technical analysis abilities can give you in picking a market bottom and how useful do you think they will be in trading a 1 off market bottom that might not happen again for another 10 to 15 years bearing in mind that any edge/setup probability has a random distribution.

And regarding your setup or TA, what rigor have you gone to to ensure that they are a valid edge bearing in mind that any sample size needs to be at least 1000 before an edge can begin to become reliable mathematically.

My bad, I’ll post something when I’m at a workstation. It wasn’t my intention to leave you hanging.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

I asked you in another thread to highlight the intermediate fractal - which u ignored.

What edge do you suppose your technical analysis abilities can give you in picking a market bottom and how useful do you think they will be in trading a 1 off market bottom that might not happen again for another 10 to 15 years bearing in mind that any edge/setup probability has a random distribution.

And regarding your setup or TA, what rigor have you gone to to ensure that they are a valid edge bearing in mind that any sample size needs to be at least 1000 before an edge can begin to become reliable mathematically.

Price bars have three parts.

Two price bars adjacent to each other makes price cases.

There are 10 possible price cases that can encapsulate all price oscillations.

Price cases adjacent to each other creates tapes.

Tapes pieced together make trend segments.

Trend segments pieced together traverse to extremes which build channels.

Channels themselves can be pieced together to build larger channels.

Channels are therefore nested within each other.

Price will oscillate within a channel until an event know as an Failure to Traverse (FTT). At this event price will then establish the opposite trend direction via the building of another channel. This is what creates market cycles are failures for a trend to continue.


All price is a derivative of the independent variable; volume.

The other questions you ask are not pertinent to the paradigm that I operate within. It is a completely different paradigm than the majority of market participants. I do not operate in probabilities nor in 'edges'. I operate within certainty derived from boolean math.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

I asked you in another thread to highlight the intermediate fractal - which u ignored.

What edge do you suppose your technical analysis abilities can give you in picking a market bottom and how useful do you think they will be in trading a 1 off market bottom that might not happen again for another 10 to 15 years bearing in mind that any edge/setup probability has a random distribution.

And regarding your setup or TA, what rigor have you gone to to ensure that they are a valid edge bearing in mind that any sample size needs to be at least 1000 before an edge can begin to become reliable mathematically.

At 11:50 am an outside bar established the new trend direction which continued until the close. All price bars have a name. All volume bars have a name. Fear, uncertainty and doubt exist when there is no differentiation of distinction built in the mind.

Much like building facility with women, having more distinction build facility and capacity. These are the foundations of the feelings of confidence, comfort and support.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

Can you give an example of these 'tells' ?

@ubercat One thing to note is that the leaders of the previous bullmarket are not going to be the leaders in the coming one (most likely). So your previous household names wont do any good.
It doesn't matter what anyone is telling you about a specific stock. Price is always leading. I'm personally observing and buying fundamentally strong stocks that are withstanding this slaughter the best and they will also be the first to breakout when it's time. These are the leaders of the next bullmarket. That's where i keep my focus but my strategy might be different from yours, i'm shorter term momentum/swing trader.

What many people don't seem understand is that risk right now is much less than it was 2 months ago when everyone was making money, the only thing that is at extreme levels is uncertainty, and markets hate it. But it's like christmas if you're a long-term investor.
Spreading out your buy-points will never go wrong.
What i personally think is irrelevant but i would be very surprised if we bottom from here, too many people are still too complacent and look for buying opportunities which speaks for a real nasty shake-out before the true bottom is set. Need to see capitulation. Agree 100% with @synergy1

Yes.

The market when decoupled from time operates via a sequence of events.

The sequence of events operate in accordance with a fundamental 'pattern' that is expressed symmetrically both 'long' and 'short'.



The math of the market is boolean. It can be seen through the eyes of 'true' and 'false' and perception of the market dynamics can be built on the certainty not probability which is the wrong type of math. Therefore the vast majority of market participants even though they experience variety of successes through statistics (yes even 'quants'), operate based on a dataset that captures a lot of 'noise'.

This is all directly observable when one does the work to understand and seek truth vs participating in the markets through greed.

The cost is the beliefs that one has been indoctrinated to believe what is and what is not 'possible'. How I came across this paradigm was someone describing 'paying it forward'.


The above charts are from yesterday. They are artifacts and coupled with a paper log that are like a map of where the market's sentiment at any given time. The distinctions operate on any time scale and are at it's most basic a repeating sequence of events that operate consistently over all liquid markets.

Most will find these concepts strange, some intimidating and others will even become hostile. These are reflections of how open a mind is, how fossilized it is and the morass of unexamined beliefs one accumulated over their lifetime.

This is a paradigm that's about extracting money from wall st. to fix main st problems, not about self-aggrandizement, vanity nor greed.

 

[wifehunter]

What bottom?

Oh, you mean.... zero?

 

[taiyuu_otoko]