buying near the bottom

[ubercat]

It's hardly an original thought but I would like to buy the S&P and dow near the bottom

Now obviously it could just be a ledge not the bottom and I'm willing to take my chances on that.

So does anybody know how to spot the point when the large institutions make their play.

it would also be great to know what sort of government policy announcements migh turn the market around.

This is a bit like little vee dub emission scandal but across the whole market so it's probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money with minimal risk.

 

[ubercat]

@Bible_Belt @BeExcellent @guru1000 @logicallefty

 

[bcude]

Give up the thought of trying to hit the bottom because it's just an illusion amateurs are running after, no one can do it.
If you want to invest long-term, buy a little bit now and scale up as we go, you will come in at great levels looking ahead 1-2 years.

So does anybody know how to spot the point when the large institutions make their play.

Look for large amounts of volume coming in (on up days).

it would also be great to know what sort of government policy announcements migh turn the market around.

Positive news surrounding Corona. FED news etc. will not help to turn it around. 100% news driven.

This is a bit like little vee dub emission scandal but across the whole market so it's probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money with minimal risk.

Agree 100%

 

[RickTheToad]

We are hardly at bottom dude. Support is around 17,500 before the market really goes into free fall. If you know how to short, you can make some coin. Then buy on the reverse.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Confucius say, man who pick bottoms get stinky finger.

The occasional rallies we have seen on the way down have, I think, been fueled by institutional computer trading triggering oversold status in the computer's programming. But that doesn't mean those institutions aren't losing their asses. No one programmed covid 19 into their trading program.

And I agree that we are not close to the bottom yet.

 

[Roober]

From what I understand, your never going to time it perfectly, so it's best to just start making regular investments while it's low.

My question though... Where do you buy?

Index funds?
Mutual funds?

 

[ubercat]

Yep totally agree you LL never time the top or bottom. But normally with a bear market there s a dead cat bounce or two.

So my question is how to judge what's a longer term support level and what's a bounce?

Or alternatively what are some good shares to look at buying low ahead of the turnaround. And what PE to look to get in at?

@Bible_Belt do you mind sharing your plan?

 

[BeExcellent]

I’m watching the markets closely myself...

In US Trump has declared no evictions or foreclosures can occur in April. I expect that might get extended into May. This is going to be awful for landlords like myself but hopefully some of my renters will pay. If not I get to make up the shortfall. Yay. Not. I understand it...but it ain’t gonna be comfortable. I’m not in the cash position I like to be in and I don’t dare fail to pay my private money guys...otherwise they may never lend to me again. So I’m going to get pinched a bit.

Renters will still owe the rent...but it will be deferred.

Financial markets HATE uncertainty. Things are too uncertain right now for anyone to time the market.

The shorts are making bank and will continue to do so for a while yet.

I’d more likely choose well run stable individual companies and buy either stock or options on those if you want to try and hit a home run. But the beta (risk) is high in doing some of that. Buying a good index fund once things stabilize is probably the best bet, then you’ll get the rise & recovery of the whole market. Smart money got out early and is sitting in cash or is shorting right now. Shorting obviously has risk...sitting in cash really doesn’t.

When trading volume goes way up on a rising day you’ll know institutions are getting back in.

I have only a few thousand in the markets right now. I pulled most everything out years ago to do real estate. I’m pleased with that decision even in today’s climate.

But like @ubercat I smell opportunity so Im paying attention.

Take advice at your own risk boys. Caveat emptor.

Cheers

 

[Bible_Belt]

Yep totally agree you LL never time the top or bottom. But normally with a bear market there s a dead cat bounce or two.

So my question is how to judge what's a longer term support level and what's a bounce?

Or alternatively what are some good shares to look at buying low ahead of the turnaround. And what PE to look to get in at?

@Bible_Belt do you mind sharing your plan?

I am not in the market at the moment. I always traded other people's money, large amounts for small gains. No offense, but bottom picking really isn't possible. My philosophy was to never stand in the way of the market. Jumping in to buy right here is like walking onto a train track and staring down an oncoming train. You look brave for a minute, but will probably just get squashed.

 

[logicallefty]

I sold all of my positions back on February 25th which was the second day the market tanked pretty heavily. I hadn't bought any positions on anything, until today. I bought 500 x shares of GASL at $0.08/share. This is a Natural Gas ETF. Small small position that i plan to hold for a while. Worst case I'm out $40. I'm treading really lightly in these markets right now. Going to look at some inverse bear ETFs and maybe day trade those which is esentially shorting the BULL version of the same commodity or sector. Step carefully folks.

 

[synergy1]

im not picking the bottom. There is no sense in doing so.

Think of the person who thought they picked the bottom in Delta airlines, down 50% at yesterdays close. One day later it was down 37% (today).

I am staying in cash. I might short the next rally that catches the bottom pickers, as I believe we have lower lows coming. Too many are interesting in Buying the dip, and a complete flush of people into fang stocks need complete capitulation before we think bottom. The very fact people are looking to BTD, such as the person who started this thread ( no offense to you of course, we all were there at one point).

 

[Billtx49]

The bottom can’t usually be picked with precision, you can guess price, you can guess time, but you can hardly ever guess price and time together…

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

Ya’all need to learn some sentiment-based TA, instead of chasing it all the time,


The market is fractal in it’s expression. Price oscillations are encapsulated in tapes. Tapes build traverses, traverses build channels.

The market has symmetry, long and short are opposite yet complimentary expressions of each other.

It gives ‘tells’ prior to market turning points. This is observable and provable through direct observation.

Much like a road signs giving a heads up of the upcoming lay of the land, the market too shows upcoming ‘events.’

The market is controlled by the minority.

‘Market Truisms’ are hardly that. Mostly myths promoted as objective when they are contextual in nature.

The majority in the Financial Industry (FI) believe in what can be described as Conventional Wisdom (CW) which they learned through indoctrinated induction.

The only way to ‘see’ a market is through the process of deduction which requires the ability to ‘think’ and examine the market in it’s basic most fundamental granularity. This is a process the 99.99% (being generous) of market participants do not do.

Price is the dependent variable of the independent variable volume.

Volume leads price, no exceptions, anomalies nor flaws.

 

[switch7]

I’m short Dow.

The chaos is yet to come, wait until the chaos before buying

 

[switch7]

Ya’all need to learn some sentiment-based TA, instead of chasing it all the time,


The market is fractal in it’s expression. Price oscillations are encapsulated in tapes. Tapes build traverses, traverses build channels.

The market has symmetry, long and short are opposite yet complimentary expressions of each other.

It gives ‘tells’ prior to market turning points. This is observable and provable through direct observation.

Much like a road signs giving a heads up of the upcoming lay of the land, the market too shows upcoming ‘events.’

The market is controlled by the minority.

‘Market Truisms’ are hardly that. Mostly myths promoted as objective when they are contextual in nature.

The majority in the Financial Industry (FI) believe in what can be described as Conventional Wisdom (CW) which they learned through indoctrinated induction.

The only way to ‘see’ a market is through the process of deduction which requires the ability to ‘think’ and examine the market in it’s basic most fundamental granularity. This is a process the 99.99% (being generous) of market participants do not do.

Price is the dependent variable of the independent variable volume.

Volume leads price, no exceptions, anomalies nor flaws.

You talk too much dude. It gives your game away.

Now unless you are a quant and can share something useful, stop with all the jargon and buzzwords - or atleast answer when someone quizzes you on something u say - otherwise it’s just seen as trolling

 

[wifehunter]

 

[RickTheToad]

I’m watching the markets closely myself...

In US Trump has declared no evictions or foreclosures can occur in April. I expect that might get extended into May. This is going to be awful for landlords like myself but hopefully some of my renters will pay. If not I get to make up the shortfall. Yay. Not. I understand it...but it ain’t gonna be comfortable. I’m not in the cash position I like to be in and I don’t dare fail to pay my private money guys...otherwise they may never lend to me again. So I’m going to get pinched a bit.

Renters will still owe the rent...but it will be deferred.

Financial markets HATE uncertainty. Things are too uncertain right now for anyone to time the market.

The shorts are making bank and will continue to do so for a while yet.

I’d more likely choose well run stable individual companies and buy either stock or options on those if you want to try and hit a home run. But the beta (risk) is high in doing some of that. Buying a good index fund once things stabilize is probably the best bet, then you’ll get the rise & recovery of the whole market. Smart money got out early and is sitting in cash or is shorting right now. Shorting obviously has risk...sitting in cash really doesn’t.

When trading volume goes way up on a rising day you’ll know institutions are getting back in.

I have only a few thousand in the markets right now. I pulled most everything out years ago to do real estate. I’m pleased with that decision even in today’s climate.

But like @ubercat I smell opportunity so Im paying attention.

Take advice at your own risk boys. Caveat emptor.

Cheers

Do you have loss of rent coverage in your insurance policy? That may assist in coverage for the missing rent.

 

[BeExcellent]

Yes. But it’s for natural disaster type stuff that renders the property unable to be occupied.

The deductibles are more than the losses so it actually would cost me more $ to pay the deductible even if this was covered.

It is what it is. I’ll figure it out once we see how things shake out.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

You talk too much dude. It gives your game away.

Now unless you are a quant and can share something useful, stop with all the jargon and buzzwords - or atleast answer when someone quizzes you on something u say - otherwise it’s just seen as trolling

Your like an American tourist overseas expecting everyone to speak English. The financial markets have their own language, every profession, trade and craft does.

Ask a question.

 

[RickTheToad]

Yes. But it’s for natural disaster type stuff that renders the property unable to be occupied.

The deductibles are more than the losses so it actually would cost me more $ to pay the deductible even if this was covered.

It is what it is. I’ll figure it out once we see how things shake out.

Hmm, you may want to check with an independent agent. My loss of rent covers damage, evictions, nearly everything aside from act of God or war. My deductible is $500.00 on two separate multi-family properties.