Breeders Cup.. I'm going to give you free money

[backbreaker]

I have to disagree on the Distaff...I'm going with Octave.

I have had Tiago fingered for the Classic for a while now. I'd like to see him win.

Why hystericalady?

very good quesiton. let mte answer it for you

First, octave is trained by Todd Pletcher. Last time i checked, which was pretty recently, todd pletcher is 2 for 41 in breeders cup races and 1 for 29 in Triple Crown races.

So when it counts, time and time again, his horses don't show up. He is usually so caught up in getting X amount of horses to the derby (this year he had a Legit 6, and his best horse, Revel, came up hurt) that none are good enough to actually WIN the derby wen they get in it. Same with the Breeders cup.

a combined 3 for 80.. that's not a very good ROI. If you are going to take what...4 to 1 on a trainer that wins at a 3 percent clip be my guest.

YOu are betting octave because she beat Lear's Princess, who beat Rags to Riches. it's the wiseguy pick going around right now. First of all, if Rags wasn't hurt going in the race (and I honeslty think she wasn't right before the race, just look at the workouts), she would have gotten the door blown off of her.

Hyestericaldy because well..she's the best filly/mare in the country if not on earth on the dirt right now.

Go back and look at all her races. She beat the Boys on DIRT... BAD.. by 12 lengths at Bay Meadows in may

Then on the kentucky Derby Undercard,a race I hit a nice lick on, she won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, on DIRT

Then in the MIlady on Poly track, she came in a hard faught 2nd to Nashoba's Key, a Turf/Poly Specialist and the 3/1 morning line in the F&M Turf

Next race, the Vanity, she came in 3rd on POLY track

The next race, Jerry shipped her to Monmouth a DIRT track, the very track she is racing on saturday, and she not only won the race, she beat the living **** out of the field.

Ran in 1:41 and 3, which is race horse time for a mile and 1/16th race

and her last race, she looses by a hair to Tough Tiz's sis on POLY, who is by tiznow, who is the most dominate polytrack sire going right now.

At least to me, it doesn't take a rocket scientest to see that Hysterialady, who is by Distored Humor, which if that doesnt' scream dirt Id ont' know what does, runs her best on Dirt.

she is a victim of circumstance. they don't have any dirt tracks in socal anymore therefore she can't run on them. she has to ship half way across the country tor un on dirt.

Also, my GF is her assistant trainer, or at least was her assitant trainer up until last month. After she got beat in the milady she told me there was no way in hell Nashoba's key wanted any part of her on the dirt, which just confirmed what I have been thinking all along.

Now.. she might not win. Distored humor himself was a mid range route horse and although horses like Funny cide, Awesome Humor and Any Given Saturday, as well as Cowtown Cat are showing what he can do... A mile and an 8th is about the only question I can come up with on why she won't run a huge bang up race.

She's trianed by the 3rd most winnest trainer of all time.

and you get all that for a nice neat package of 8 to 1. All day every day

 

[ketostix]

So if it's not too much trouble, if you were going to wager say a small amount like $50, how would you place your bet. This handicapping stuff is too much info to sort through for a beginner.

 

[backbreaker]

lol, where do you live?

I persoinally use xpressbet.com, I even use them when I'm on the track though my iphone, Id on't even bother with going to the window, I migt miss the post parade

however it's not the eastiest of things to sign up with at times and if they give you any problem at ALL go to youbet and you will have an account in 5 mintues

 

[ketostix]

Ok what about tvg? I assume they all work about the same in the end. Anyway if you were going to wager a small amount like say $50 for example, how would you place it. You would probably want to bet on at least two or 3 races right?

 

[backbreaker]

So if it's not too much trouble, if you were going to wager say a small amount like $50, how would you place your bet. This handicapping stuff is too much info to sort through for a beginner.

I forgot all about money management.

If you had 50 bucks, this is how I would spend it.

Well..I'm not going to tell you how I bet, becuase I do stricly win bets.. IF I don't win a thing I'm fine but I want you guys to have winning days no matter what.

I would put $10 bucks on Smarty Deb. I've seen her today. my freaking gosh she looks just like her daddy. She's not going off at 30 to 1, but should be over 20 to 1.

I'd also load up on Hysestericalady and Wicked Style. I REALLLLLY like them. I am starting to get to a point where I don't see a situtation where hyesericalady can loose.. of course there is one but I feel great about her chances.

Wicked Style is going to be tough.


One thing.. if it rains put everyting you CAN on hyesestericalady and smarty deb.

Hyestericalady won the Humana at churchill on Derby day.. in the slop.


Smarty Deb races in none other than Auburn Washington.. rain city. and is undefeated.

 

[ketostix]

Thanks BB. So I assume you mean just to place a simple bet on win right? So you would suggest to:

$10 bucks on Smarty Deb. with the pontential to make +$200
$30 Hysestericalady
$10 Wicked Style

But if it rains wage $40-$50 on either/or Hysestericalady, Smart Deb.

Did I get that right or did I mess it up? Which days do these horses run? You bet on the day they run after 11am right?

 

[backbreaker]

Okay.. it depends on what your goals are.

My goals when I bet is my End of the year profit margin.

your goals might be to have some party money for later tonight or to take a babe out and be able to get a bottle of wine which is fine. When I first started, I used to drive to oaklawn, and I was happy if I could stop at Red lobster ont he way back home and pay for it with my winnings.. made everything worthwhile to me.

I'm going to tell you what I am going to do. I am putting 5 figures on smarty deb, lol, which is probalby why she is not going to go off at higher than 25 to 1. I'm going to put a lob of money on Hyestericalady and wicked Style.


I'm going to help you out. do this. I'm going to help you max 50 bucks.

Put $8 bucks on Smarty Deb


wait until 10 mintues before post time and if she is above 6 to 1, $8 on Hyesterical lady, if she is lower pass the race


Put $8 dollars on Wicked Style

And put another $8 on Kip Deville.. But wait on this one because if the ground is too soft I might change my mind

Wait to race 4, which is the Breeders cup juve fillies, and do a rolling pick 3 with

Race 4: (9)
Race 5: (10)
Race 6: (2)(4)

that is a 4 dollar pick 3 ticket that if it hits, will pay you ever bit of 1 grand, using nothing more than what I told you above.

I would roll it over again to race 7 but that sprint is going to be a mother****er

which throws a cramp in everythhing because well.. I am singling Hyestericalady.. that race 7 is the only reason I won't play the pick 6, because the only logical way I can play it is to hit the all button in the 7th, and i'm not doing that.

go to race 8, start a pick 4 with

Race 8: (8)
Race 9: (12)
Race 10: (10) I don't think I've ever found a better free bingo square in my life, basically turning a pick 4 into a pick 3
Race 11: (9)(4)

I like Tiago, but I can't leave Curlin off of a pick 4 ticket. He's just too good. that again is a 4 dollar ticket.

In this case, on a normal Day, Dylan Thomas is so much better than the rest of this field, ti makes no sense ot just play a pick 3. Just use him as a free bingo square.


ON RAce 4. Tell the person on the phone or just bet a superfecta

1st place: (9)
2nd place: (4)(8)
3rd place: (10)
4th place: (6)

That will cost you all of (drumroll) 20 CENTS!! 10 cent superfectas! howeve ryou get 1/10 of the 1 dollar pay out... you are shooting for a homerun here.. this is assuming that smarty deb wins and that the Santa Anita 2YO's are really good and that they will run better off of poly. it's worth 20 cents and if that comes in right there... your 20 cents iwll pay somewhere in the range of 4 grand.


shoot.. I think I'm going to end up taking my own advice.. it's too economical to not to!

 

[backbreaker]

Toss Silent Name from the Breeders Cup Mile. I just got word that his trainer is staying back in California because his dog is sick. if you are going to stay back home becuase your dog is sick when you have the chance to win a 2 million dollar race, you must not have much faith in the horse.

 

[ketostix]

Not betting on horse racing I'm having some trouble figuring this out.

Put $8 bucks on Smarty Deb


wait until 10 mintues before post time and if she is above 6 to 1, $8 on Hyesterical lady, if she is lower pass the race


Put $8 dollars on Wicked Style


And put another $8 on Kip Deville.. But wait on this one because if the ground is too soft I might change my mind

Is this the last race on Saturday or the first 3 races on Friday, or what? I guess I don't I don't know which races these are and what date and time I should place the bet. I don't really understand the race schedule.

Wait to race 4, which is the Breeders cup juve fillies, and do a rolling pick 3 with

Race 4: (9)
Race 5: (10)
Race 6: (2)(4)

that is a 4 dollar pick 3 ticket that if it hits, will pay you ever bit of 1 grand, using nothing more than what I told you above.

I would roll it over again to race 7 but that sprint is going to be a mother****er

which throws a cramp in everythhing because well.. I am singling Hyestericalady.. that race 7 is the only reason I won't play the pick 6, because the only logical way I can play it is to hit the all button in the 7th, and i'm not doing that.

go to race 8, start a pick 4 with

Race 8: (8)
Race 9: (12)
Race 10: (10) I don't think I've ever found a better free bingo square in my life, basically turning a pick 4 into a pick 3
Race 11: (9)(4)

So these are all Saturday's races right? I can pick 2 winners in the last races for the pick 3 and pick 4?

ON RAce 4. Tell the person on the phone or just bet a superfecta

1st place: (9)
2nd place: (4)(8)
3rd place: (10)
4th place: (6)

That will cost you all of (drumroll) 20 CENTS!! 10 cent superfectas! howeve ryou get 1/10 of the 1 dollar pay out... you are shooting for a homerun here..

Is this race 4 on Friday or Saturday? I should bet the minimum of 10cents right? Again, I don't understand why there's 2 horses listed for 2nd place.

I guess I just can't get it straight what days, times and races I will need to bet on. It's probably a lot of trouble for you to make it totally clear.

 

[backbreaker]

1. everything I mentioned is on Saturday (at least as far as spending your 50 bucks). I really don't see much money to be made on Friday You might want to put $2 dollars on Gio Ponti in the BC Juve Turf. I should have been a little more clear

2. lol, let me introdce you to my friend, his name is Daily Racing Form

http://drf.com/entries/27/eMTH27.html?rn=240147

for the hell of it, here is fridays

http://drf.com/entries/26/eMTH26.html?rn=240147


There is normally 25 mintues between races. When you are at the track it comes in handy. You can place a bet, pee, get something to eat, or just recoup, or collect money that you won. I like to go to the paddock and look at horses and get eat.

It's not as fast paced as most sports. However if you are at home like I am most of the time playing, and you are playing 5 tracks at once, it's worse than the stock market.

So these are all Saturday's races right? I can pick 2 winners in the last races for the pick 3 and pick 4?

Yes all saturday races

In a pick 3 or pick 4 you can pick as many horses as you want. you can say I want to pick every horse in all 3 races, however it would cost you about 200k of course.

it's very simple.. you have a

1
1
1
2

ticket... so all you do is multiply and then mutlipy again (2 dollar wager) and that's how much your ticket is

so let's say I had a ticket where I wanted

3 horses
2 horses
4 horses

that would be a 48 dollar ticket. I don't do that. If you are going to win with me playing a ticket, you are not going to spend a lot of money, i rarely have over a 6 dollar ticket, and you are going to have a nice payoff. it's the only way to go. if I loose I loose.

You can place the bets anytime before the race starts.

Example.



Smarty Deb, I'm probably going to place my bets Friday becasue that's not going ot change and I know she is going to have high odds. She's not going to go from 30-1, to 5-2. if she does it would be the first time in horse racing history.

But, I'm trying to be defult, show you money management skills in horse racing.

The reasaon i said wait until 10 mintues before post time (so let's say the 8th race, 10 mintues before post would be 3:10 EST), is because at 6 to 1, Kip Deville is a very sound bet. Even if he looses, I know if I make that bet 100 times, I'm going to come out on top and I feel good about it.

what I DON'T want you to do is to make that bet at 11am (which you could do, you can make the bets the second you wake up in the morning) And see Kip Deville is 5/2 which would pay you 7 dollars per 2 dollars bet.

At 6 to 1, Kip Deville would pay 14 bucks for 2 dollars bet. Good Bet.

I want you to wait to make sure you get the right odds. if he isn't at least 5 to 1, pass.

Same with Hyseterialady, although with her I would say 9/2

So these are all Saturday's races right? I can pick 2 winners in the last races for the pick 3 and pick 4?

Yes, it's post time is going to be 12:30 EST, so as long as it's in before tat you are good.

When it actually gets on TV, and you have the daily racing form, it would explain itself i promise you. Even just looking at the racing form now will be a big help, that's my fault


man anytihng I can do to educate anyone, that's what i'm here for. you have to understand.. this is crap I take sooooo much for advantage. There are times, espically in the spring when I have 2 montiors hooked up and a laptop and I'm literarly playing Santa Anita, Laurel, Golden Gate, Aqueduct, Calder and Churchill all at the same time, and getting ready for Lone Star park, Mountineer, Penn National and Charles Town that night, while on the phone with a girl, and typing on this very website at the same time. it's to a point where I know the tracks so much and their schecudles, I can usually within 10 mintues guess their post times for the races if not nail it.

if you need any help or anything just ask.

 

[st_99]

Just wondering, at what age did you realize that you were really into horse racing and got to the point where you really started to pay attention..?

 

[ketostix]

I think I'm just getting it barely. The DRF helped.

So, you meant:
race 4 (Sat. 12:30). $8 win on (9) Smarty Deb.
5th (Sat. 1:10). $8 win on (13) Wicked style.
race 8 (Sat. 3:30) . $8 win on (8) Kip Deville.
race 9 (Sat. 4:05, Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup) $8 win on (12)Hyesterical
lady

total $32.

Race 4: (9) Smarty Deb
Race 5: (10) Tale of Ekati
Race 6: (2)(4) (2)Honey Ryder 1st place, (4)Passage of Time. right?
$36

"ON RAce 4. Tell the person on the phone or just bet a superfecta

1st place: (9)
2nd place: (4)(8) -Here's where I don't understand betting on 2 horses to finish 2nd in the same race
3rd place: (10)
4th place: (6)
That will cost you all of (drumroll) 20 CENTS!! 10 cent superfectas! howeve ryou get 1/10 of the 1 dollar pay out... you are shooting for a homerun here.. this is assuming that smarty deb wins and that the Santa Anita 2YO's are really good and that they will run better off of poly. it's worth 20 cents and if that comes in right there... your 20 cents iwll pay somewhere in the range of 4 grand."

So just bet 10 cents and that would be a total of 50 cents here?

Race 8: (8)
Race 9: (12)
Race 10: (10) I don't think I've ever found a better free bingo square in my life, basically turning a pick 4 into a pick 3
Race 11: (9)(4)
$41.50

Did I get this right. So I should wait till about 3:00 pm Saturday to see what the odds are on Kip Devile and Hysteriacal lady.

 

[backbreaker]

I think I'm just getting it barely. The DRF helped.

So, you meant:
race 4 (Sat. 12:30). $8 win on (9) Smarty Deb.
5th (Sat. 1:10). $8 win on (13) Wicked style.
race 8 (Sat. 3:30) . $8 win on (8) Kip Deville.
race 9 (Sat. 4:05, Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup) $8 win on (12)Hyesterical
lady

total $32.

Race 4: (9) Smarty Deb
Race 5: (10) Tale of Ekati
Race 6: (2)(4) (2)Honey Ryder 1st place, (4)Passage of Time. right?
$36

"ON RAce 4. Tell the person on the phone or just bet a superfecta

1st place: (9)
2nd place: (4)(8) -Here's where I don't understand betting on 2 horses to finish 2nd in the same race
3rd place: (10)
4th place: (6)
That will cost you all of (drumroll) 20 CENTS!! 10 cent superfectas! howeve ryou get 1/10 of the 1 dollar pay out... you are shooting for a homerun here.. this is assuming that smarty deb wins and that the Santa Anita 2YO's are really good and that they will run better off of poly. it's worth 20 cents and if that comes in right there... your 20 cents iwll pay somewhere in the range of 4 grand."



Race 8: (8)
Race 9: (12)
Race 10: (10) I don't think I've ever found a better free bingo square in my life, basically turning a pick 4 into a pick 3
Race 11: (9)(4)
$41.50

Did I get this right. So I should wait till about 3:00 pm Saturday to see what the odds are on Kip Devile and Hysteriacal lady.

spoken like a true gambler. PERFECT!!!

Also on DRF's website, there are usually if not laways some pretty good articles that are free to read. I read it everyday.

Also... Update... Take Curlin out of that pick 4. Now his trainer is having "issues" with the track with is horsespeak for he's building in his excuse for when he lloses.. but in this cas eit's actually a valid excuse. Curlin isn't taking to the track, and my one conern I had about him, that his worse race of his life came on this track, is coming to life.

Just wondering, at what age did you realize that you were really into horse racing and got to the point where you really started to pay attention..?

Honestly? 8. My dad used to take me to the track every satudday they were running and I could read a DRF past performance sheet by the time I was 10. Won my first pick 3 (the chalkest pick 3 on earth, but nevertheless) when I was 10. HOwever I didn't start really taking it seriously until iw as about 19.

Just reading what I have posted in this post, it's no secret how i do what I do.. I just reserach and study. It's not a 'SYSTEM' to it. or a "method', or a 'FORMULA' to it. That is waht drives people away and why they can't make a long term profit.. becuase you are going to have to roll up your sleves and do some grunt work to learn some stuff.

You will notice that not once did i reference a speed figure in this entire thread, although I know them to a point where I can look at a final time and tell you witin 1 or 2 points where they ran.. for instance Tiago's last race was 1:46 and 2 on the normal Beyer Speed figure rating, that's about a 115 which will win you 98 out of 100 races you will ever run in.


Oh and one more thing. I want you to take Curlin off the pick 4 ticket, and replace him wiht Street Sense and George Washington.. It's a 9 horse field but I can't see but 3 horses in all winning it, with Steve already making excuses for why he is going to loose. so now it's a 6 dollar ticket

 

[KontrollerX]

Just had a look through the horses pictures.

Man they take good care of these or raise them right.

Street Sense is a very elegant even royal looking horse lol.

Way better quality all around than the horses my aunt has on her farm.

 

[backbreaker]

Anoter way to maximze your dollars would be to use horses that you really thihnk are locks.

Right now, Dylan thomas is about as can't miss as can't miss can get. Now you arent' going to make any money betting him straight up. but what you can do is use im as a peg in a vertial bet, meaning say,t he daily double. Race 10 and 11:

10: Dylan thomas
11: Tiago


what you just did, was take a 2 pick bet and turn it into a 1 pick bet, but you are still getting paid like a 2 pick bet if that makes sense.


Update: I just got back from the track, the track looks like a slip n slide. There is no way in hell that's not going to be a sloppy track and a soft turf course

 

[backbreaker]

an

Just had a look through the horses pictures.

Man they take good care of these or raise them right.

Street Sense is a very elegant even royal looking horse lol.

Way better quality all around than the horses my aunt has on her farm.

man these horses eat better than you and me. the normal 3 year old horse weights about 900 pounds, Curlin is every bit of 1250. My trainer bills for last month, the first trainer bills i've ever had to pay, for 3 horses was 9500 dollars. They are very well bred athletes

They exercise every day. They are basically sprinters/runners




They are raised on Million dollar farms... it's not your back yard bush track operation. It's big money. The better looking the colt/filly the more money you can get from tem, the more money they can win at the track


At the track today, whoever jeremy is, he is a little *******. I am pretty sure he hurt himself on the turf track today acting up. If he wins, he wins, but he and excellent art, who doesn't take to soft t urf, is just going to beat me and good ole kippy.

Again if any given saturday beats me, he just does. he is the only horse that has won over this track, but he beat two horses who weren't going to win no matter what plus he has lost alot of weight.

more pictures!! Today you can say thanks to millie, my GF, as I was in the hotel room handicapping and drinking sminoff's and eating Chapote shrimp all day..umm...She actually to my detrament went down and got on a couple of horses this morning for 2 of her trainers she works for back home. Her Ex BF, who is a jockey at another race track in another state, is here as well and saw her and asked her to dinner, which of course she declined.. I'll save that for another post.

anyway, here you go:


Here is a picture of the best and most famous jockey in the world, Franki Detorri. He flew in from Europe just to ride 3 horses here, I don't think I have any of them either.

Here is sucide's pick, Octave.. I'll give you this Sucide, she's by Unbridled, who by Fappiano.. and that sire line with their big ass feet, love nothing more than a big ass wet juicy muddy track

Here is Kelly's Landing..t he horse I am probably going to put some money on in the sprint.. in fact I am. He's the biggest horse I've ever seen. In dubai they literarly had to make the gate wider for im to get in

Here is Bob Baffert's best cance to get in the winner's circle, INdian blessing. don't think she likes 2 turns and for the value I still like Smarty deb. pretty filly tough

Here is Part of Bill Mott's untourge of 2 YO's he has, Z Humor.. Now I told millie "make sure you get a pic of z humor" but the reason was, he normally has a smokin hot exercise rider, I guess she took the day off

Here is Awesome Gem. I like him.. he's not very big. should be a force to be reckon with next year and can win it next year if he comes back which he should

Here is part of the coolmore gang, with the trainer, adian o'brien on the 2nd from the left

 

[ketostix]

So for the pick 4 take number (4) Curlin off, keep (9) and add (2) Street Sense and (5) George Washington?

So the pick 4 looks like:
Race 8: (8)
Race 9: (12)
Race 10: (10) I don't think I've ever found a better free bingo square in my life, basically turning a pick 4 into a pick 3
Race 11: (9)(2)(5) -now when I add three horse to race 11 on youbet its going list (2,5,9) right?


For the superfecta:
ON RAce 4. Tell the person on the phone or just bet a superfecta

1st place: (9)
2nd place: (4)(8)
3rd place: (10)
4th place: (6)



I can't figure out how to put the horses 1-4th place for a superfecta on youbet. It just orders them by number, and I can't figure out how to put 2 horses in second place. I dn't understand it.

 

[backbreaker]

You got it.

for superfecta you have to choose the wagering option is SU or SUPER

The pick for isn't win, it's Pick 4 or P4. I haven't used youbet in a while. I'm about to take my GF out to eat and I'll ge tit for you when I get bakc

 

[cordoncordon]

As BB knows I trained race horses in Michigan for almost 18 years. And i can tell you that they are treated like royalty. They get the best nutrition, health care, feet care, exercise, the best of everything really. I often said they were like my kids if I had any. And that was for the cheaper standardbred harness horses here in Michigan. I can only imagine the kind of care the top T-breds get, and the money spent on them.

Here in Michigan it costs an owner $2000/month or so to pay a trainer to take care of the horse. For me, since i trained them myself, if i owned one it might cost me $600/month or so.

 

[backbreaker]

They get the best nutrition, health care, feet care, exercise, the best of everything really.

unless of course you are at portland Meadows.. then you are l ucky to get scraps. some of the trainers up there ought to be ashamed of themselves

Here in Michigan it costs an owner $2000/month or so to pay a trainer to take care of the horse. For me, since i trained them myself, if i owned one it might cost me $600/month or so.

In SoCal the going rate is about $3200 a month. If you want Todd Pletcher, you can add another grand to that