Breeders Cup.. I'm going to give you free money

[backbreaker]

The best horses from the United STates, Canada, South Africa, Europe, Asia and

Austraila will be on display at Monmouth park this friday and saturday in part of the breeders cup weekend. it's one of the biggest events in horse racing and one of the top 4 with Royal AScot week, Dubai World Cup games and The Arc.

I also want to do my part to get as many people watching horse racing, or att he track as possible. anyone who hasnt' been interested in horse racing, there is not a better event to get aquanted with the game than watching the best in the world.


the races will be on ESPN 2 on Friday and ESPN on saturday

You will have the opprotunity to hear the best race caller on the planet in Trevor Denman



So what I"m going to do, is I'm going to give you free money

how? Well.. I'm going do something I normally don't do but iwll make an exection this weekend. I'm going to giv eyou my picks?

Are the guarantees? there is no such thing, but these are my picks how I"m going ot make them verbatium and I'm doing pretty darn well for myself and I have been gunning for this day for 3 months.


Even if you just want to see how "good" i am, that's enough for me. just Watch!

okay, let me start

If you want me to post what I am picking for the undercard races, let me know, but I have to wait to see the odds, as they aren't out yet

If I were you, I would catch the 6th race on Friday.. there is filly int here who is an abosolute monster and will be the next rags to riches, her name is Life is Sweet and she is a full sister ot Sweet Catomine who was actually the Fav in the Santa antia Derby 3 years ago (against boys) but was injuried beofre the race and came in 4th. her first race this year was the most impressive race I've seen so far from a maiden outside Sargent Seattle

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Sprint

This is a 1 million sprint, over 6 Furlongs for fillies and mares 3 and older.

1 Miss Macy Sue 6-1
2 Miraculous Miss 15-1
3 Dream Rush 2-1
4 Maryfield 15-1
5 Jazzy 20-1
6 Oprah 6-1
7 La Traviata 5-2
8 Wild Games 10-1
9 Shaggy Mane 12-1
10 Baroness T. 12-1


I'm going to make this very simple. This is a 2 horse race. Dream Rush and La Traviata. there is going to be plenty of opproutnies to make money over the next 2 days, this isn't one fo them. I would be shocked if one of these two didn't win. Dream Rush is damn near unbeatbale at 6F, La Traviata is soo good, they strogly considered running her agains the Boys.

If you had to take a shot for the hell of it.. nah.. i can't even do that. you are just wasting money. Again.. I'm not guaranteeing anything,b ut I'm not going to try to beat these two horses

If I had to play this race, which I'm not but if I were, the only way you can make any REAL money is to get creative.

so this is what I would do. I likeDream rush moe than I like La T. So I would hope that La T comes in 3rd and play a

Dream Rush
Maryfield, Jazzy, Oparh Whenny, Shaggy mane
La T

Trifecta

You could also box Dream Rush and La T, but I proimise you every one there is going to do that, so there iwll be no money if you win.

I would honeslty sit this one out and just watch

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes

This is a 1 million dollar mile and 1/16th race over the turf course

1 Your Round 30-1
2 Cannonball 50-1
3 The leopard 8-1
4 Cherokee Triangle 10-1
5 Strike the Deal 5/2
6 Gio Ponti 8-1
7 Nownownow 10-1
8 Achill Island 7-1
9 Prussian 3-1
10 Preachin Man 50-1
11 Texas Fever 30-1
12 Domestic Fund 5-1

Okay, let's make some money



**** this is a hard one. But that's what makes it so fun. My GF and I spent 3 hours, litearly talking about this race last week.

Here is the breakdown.

The leopard is a 2.5 Million dollar horse by Storm CAt that will be overbeat becasue his trainer is Todd PLetcher and his owner is coolmore. He is not that good. He hasn't beaten anyone. the one graded stakes he ran in in his life I think he came in last. I mean he's ovbiously good, but he's not THIS good

Prussian is the most overrated horse, well 2nd most, I'll give you the most overrated one later, in the country. He has beaten no one and didn't look that good doing it. He might win, but making money is about taking stands, and i'm taking one against this horse. not impressed


Strike the Deal is the most accomplished horse in the race

Achill Island is a very good horse owned by Coolmore trained by Adian O'Brian


Okay here is the deal. Alot of people are not taking hte track into consideration. Monmouth's track is like a go cart ring compared to most tracks across the country. it's 7 furlongs with very very tight turns whereas Most tracks in the country have mile long turf courses and the ones overseas are usually about a mile and a half if not longer with alot of straitaways

the "safe pick" will be Strike the deal. and if he can handle the trip from Europe to America and handle the turns, he just might win it.

but I can't take 5 to 2 on a horse, and a 2YO mind you, with all thoose issues to overcome. that's not a sound bet.

Because of the two turns on a bull ring, I'm throwing out the horses past the 10 post. and I kinda liked Texas Fever..

I'm going to go with Gio Ponti in this one. He has won at this distnace he has a great turf trainer in Clement. And at 8 to 1 I like him alot. That's putting 18 bucks for ever 2 dollars wagered in your pocket

This is how I would play this one. I'm not going ot mess around with two many exotics, becasue there are too many variables, so I will just trhow my money at Gio Ponti.

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Sakes

This is a 1 million dollar race for horses 3YO and older over 1 mile on the dirt

8 Corinthian 7-2
1 Discreet Cat 2-1
4 Forefathers 20-1
6 Gottcha Gold 8-1
5 High Finance 5-1
2 Lewis Michael 6-1
7 Park Avenue Ball 15-1
3 Wanderin Boy 8-1
9 Xchanger 6-1


Okay. Here is the delima. Discreet Cat might, when healthy and right, be the best horse in the world. He is the only horse ever to finish ahead of Invasor, blowing his socks off last year in the UAE derby. however, he hasn't been right all year long, just got back in training and came in 3rd in a Grade 1.

however he had the best workout of any horse this past week.. absolutly flying and doing it well in hand.

So I don't know if He is right yet and at 2 to 1, I'm going to say it's not worth me finding out.

Corinthian is a mile specialist, a son of Pulpit with impecable breeding. He has won the most important mile race on dirt in the country the Met Mile.

and normally 7 to 2 for that isn't half bad.

here is the deal however... he's batsh!t crazy. You know you are crazy when you have your own verb... when a horse "goes corinthian". if he doesn't want to race, youc an forget it. he sits at the gate after the break, he bucks, he runs rank, he does pretty mucn everyting you would expect a crazy horse to do. but when he puts it together, he's a world class horse. the question is WILL he put it togeter.

I could see a situtation where high Finance wins it.. but I'm going to go with Corinthian, because even on his bad days, he's still really good. and another question with discreet cat is does he want to go a mile against THIS calibur of horse? I honestly don't know.

actually, that's who I think will win. There are toooooo many money making opprotunties to take 7/2 on a horse that's crazy.

so if you want to place a wager, do it on corinthian. but I'm not.

the rest of the races are on saturday

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

this is a 2 million dollar race for 2YO fillies over a mile and 16th



14 A to the Croft 10-1
7 Backseat Rhythm 12-1
2 Clearly Foxy 30-1
13 Cry and Catch Me 6-1
12 Grace Anatomy 10-1
4 Indian Blessing 3-1
5 Irish Smoke 8-1
8 Izarra 6-1
1 Phantom Income 30-1
10 P 5-1
6 Set Play 20-1
9 Smarty Deb 30-1
3 Tasha?s Miracle 10-1
11 Zee Zee 30-1

This is an interesting race because some of the best horses, come from the west coast, have raced on Poly track for all of their races and have never raced on dirt. That includes Izearra, Set Play and Cry and Catch me. Cry and Catch me is by Street Cry who is the sire of Street Sense, and Street Sense can ovbiously run on drit.

There was a 2YO filly in the north west turning heads all year. She is undfeated. Her last race, she took on boys, someting that is not easy and literarly wiped the floor with them wining by dayligt. She is a daughter of Smart STrike so she has every right to be a good filly.

And when I was watcing espn today and saw she was 30 to 1 I damn near choked.

Smarty Deb I honestly think is the best 2YO filly in the country. Her only downfall is she raced atEmarld Downs and not Churchill, Keeneland or Belmont.

She might very well loose. But 30 to 1? that's insane. I was thinking seriously.. 5 to 1?

I'm not going to bother with exotics, I'm just ploping a huge amount of cash on smarty deb. If she wins, it will be one of te biggest scores of my life. again 30 to 1 is insane

If you want to know about the other horses in the race.. I would lean towards Indian Blessing. I don't like Bob Baffert however she's a speedy filly and Monmouth favors speedy horses with the tight turns


So, again, plump of money, smarty deb

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Juvenile

this is a 2 Million dollar race for 2 Year Old Colts and Geldings over a mile and a 16th on the dirt


11 Dixie Chatter 10-1
8 Globalization 20-1
3 Kodiak Kowboy 8-1
9 Old Man Buck 20-1
6 Overextended 50-1
7 Pyro 6-1
12 Salute the Sarge 12-1
5 Shore Do 30-1
4 Slew?s Tiznow 15-1
10 Tale of Ekati 7-2
2 War Pass 5-2
13 Wicked Style 10-1
1 Z Humor 12-1

Oh man.. this is going to be a great race.

Pyro, War Pass, Z Humor, Wicked Style, Tale of Ekati or Slew?s Tiznow can all win it.

I love war pass. I think he ist he most talented 2YO in the coutnry. I cashed in on him earlier this month.. even made a post about it.

But.. now I have to diss him. His last race I didn't like he looked closing out at ALL.. he didn't look too good in the end, like he was tired, and he isn't going to find an easier pace than he had that race and he's going father. can't take 5 to 2.

I'm not sold on Tale of Ekati. I just dont' think he's beaten anyone and didn't look that great doing it.

Pyro is going to be the Wiseguy's choice.. he was catching up to War pass in the last race and would have passed him. will relish the extra distance.

I'm going to go with Wicked Style. hasn't lost a race, won a grade 1 last race and did it extremely impressivly. BEat alot of these horses.. not alot but some. Distnace iwll not be a problem. he hasn't raced on dirt yet but if Macho Uno/Holy Bull doesn't spell dirt I dont' know what does. and at 10 to freakin 1? you gonna pay me 22 bucks for every 2 dollars to bet on an unfedated horse that won his last race, a grade 1 race by 5 lengths and pulling away? I'll take that 7 days a week and win or lose know it was a sound bet

if you want to get fancy, which Id on't.. Put Z Humor and Pyro on the bottom in an exacta

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

This is a 2 million dollar race for 3YO and up fillies and mares (basicaly girls) over a mile and a quarter.. I think.. could be a mile and an 8th

1 All My Loving 15-1
7 Argentina 12-1
10 Arravale 30-1
9 Danzon 12-1
2 Honey Ryder 9-2
6 Lahudood 1
0-1
3 Nashoba?s Key 3-1
4 Passage of Time 7-2
12 Precious Kitten 30-1
11 Simply Perfect 15-1
8 Timarwa 20-1
5 Wait a While 4-1

Wait a while finished 2nd in this race last year to the best mare on the planet last year and the most loved mare on earth, Oujia Board. but she's not the same horse she was last year IMHO

HOney Ryder is very good, she normally races against the boys.

Nashoba's Key is undfeated and for thoose of you intersted, my GF used to be her assistant trainer...and a side note.. she is literarly.. (not myGF the horse), the meanest horse I've ever seen. Corthnitan is just crazy. Nashoba's key will kill you. She bites anyone and everyone. She attacks people who agatate her. She bucks and kicks berfore the races and my GF was scared ****less of her and that's saying alot because I've seen her handle some nutcases. But she's very good and is oddly enough very, very profesional on the track.

However, and my GF and I got into a debate on that.. she hasn't really beaten anyone. yes she beat a mare named Hystericalady, who I am picking to win another race, but she did it on poly track, not dirt which is hyestricalady's game. She beat a filly named Citronnade, who before moving to Sothern Cal, was stuggling tyo win allowence races in new york. She beat Balance who is good.. on dirt. and it's not that she is beating no one. she is barley beating no one. When Curlin beat no one in the arkansas derby, he did it in hand by 10 legnths and didnt takea deep breath after the race. She is haivng to give all she has to beat these horses that are not the same calibur she is going to face.

She will proably be in it, but I dont't think she will win and defiantly not at 3 to 1.

I like Passage of Time in this race.. if you put a gun to my head and said pick a horse, this is it.. but not at 7/2 and not with her sipping from europe and having to tackle the turns here at monmouth on turf.

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Sprint

This is a 2 million dollar race over 7 furlongs for horses and geldings 3 and up.

3 Attila?s Storm 15-1
6-1
9 Bordonaro 15-1
6 Commentator 12-1
11 Forefathers 20-1
10 Greg?s Gold 9-2
7 Idiot Proof 10-1
5 Kelly?s Landing 20-1
2 Midnight Lute 2-1
1 Smokey Stover 7-2
4 Talent Search 15-1


this is always my fav race, because you see nothing but raw get out speed. no angling noposting for position. just gun it.

Talent Search some guy at the track who I know has been beating his choice about this horse, I don't like him. overrated. HIs claim to fame is ifnished 2nd to diabolical in a non graded race

Smokey Stover is going to be the heart warming story of the meet. His connections are the same that had the great sprinter Lost in the fog, who died of cancer last year. and he's good. But he has never really beaten anyone.

Midnight Lute is probably going to win it.. he just blew away a field, alto of these horses in his last race. If there is anything BAffert knows, it's speed.

Benny the Bull alot of people like this horse and claim that beause he is now being trained by Dutrow he is not the 2nd coming of Dr. Fager. I don't buy it.

Now.. listen to what I'm about to say becuse at first it won't make sense.

I think Midnight Lute will iwn. but I'm going to bet on Kelly's landing.

WHAT?!

Sometimes the best horse and the best BET are two different horses. Midnight Lute is good but not 2 to 1 good.

How does a horse who in his last race, won the most presteious sprint in the world, the Golden Sheeen in Dubai, also for 2 million dollars, go off at 20 to 1? He hasn't raced since but he looks GREAt in his workouts.

So... again, I'm going to bet on Kelly's landing because I can easily see him winning and I can see a situtation where Midnight lute looses

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Mile

This is a 2 Million Dollar race on the turf over a mile for horhses 3 and older

3 After Market 7-2
7 Cosmonaut 15-1
13 Excellent Art 3-1
4 Host 30-1
2 Icy Atlantic 30-1
5 Jeremy 5-1
8 Kip Deville 6-1
10 My Typhoon 30-1
9 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
12 Purim 20-1
1 Rebellion 50-1
14 Remarkable News 12-1
11 Silent Name 30-1
6 Trippie?s Storm 8-1

this is a GREAT betting race

Okay. Trippi's Storm sucks. So by default after market sucks because he got beat by trippi's storm last race. however made after market 7 to 2 is drinking some damn good vodka

Silent Name is intreging because he won the Commonwealth, one of the most prestious mile turf races in the county earlier this year, but has been mismanged ever since running him at different distances and on dirt. he's not a dirt horse. but he's damn good at a mile. however, he prefers the 1 turn mile over the 2 turn mile. but still he is a hell of alot better than 30 to 1. his true odds should be closer to 10 to 1

Nobiz like shobiz will get bet becasue he's the one horse that non race people know. He was in the kentucky derby. He's good but he doesn't have the speed needed to compete on this level.

Icy Atlantic is so damn spotty, i can't bet him. I'm always one race off with im. I sat out a race earlier this year and watched him put on a late move that would make Silky Sullivan jealous and win a grade 2. So I jumped on him at churchill and he threw in a clunker. So then i said I'm done with him and he wins a turf race at Monmouth in record time. so i'm back on right? then he throws in another clunker. He's pissing me off. but i'm sticking ot my guns.. plus I think he needs more than a mile

I'll be hoenst.. I've never heard of Jeremy, and he most be pretty decent to get 5 to 1. I will read up and watch his races and if Ineed to change my picks I will update tis post


Cosmonaut is very consistant but I dont' think he is of this calibur

If you ask any horse player in the country, ask them "who is a mile turf specialist right now".. you will get 1 answer.

Kip Deville

He is one of the best horses on earth at a mile on turf. Last race he ran into a monster in shakesphere who is extremely talented and only lost by a head. that was after a what...4 month layoff. plus he was being geared towards this race. the race beore that he was injuried in the race and ifnihsed off the board.

before that he won 2 grade 1's on turf including hte kilroe mile, one of the most prestious turf races out there

I'm all over Kip Deville at 6 to 1 or even if he drops to 5 to 1.. but any longer and I will go with Silent Name

 

[backbreaker]

Breeders Cup Distaff

this is a 2 million dollar race over a mile and an 8th over dirt for Fillies and mares 3 and up

1 Balance 20-1
6 Bear Now 15-1
4 Ginger Punch 7-2
12 Hystericalady 8-1
10 Indian vale 3-1
5 Lady Joanne 6-1
7 Lear?s Princess 6-1
8 Octave 10-1
2 Prop Me Up 50-1
9 Teammate 30-1
3 Tough Tiz?s Sis 20-1
11 Unbridled Belle 9-2

One horse race. Hystericalady . take it to the bank. nuff said

whoever makes these odds is on that good. I would not be suprised to see Hystericalady go off as the post time favoriate

 

[backbreaker]

Breeeders Cup Turf


this is a 3 million dollar mile and 3/4th (I think or a mile and a half) race for horses 3 and up.

3 Better Talk Now 9-2
7 Dylan Thomas 7-5
6 English Channel 5-2
1 Fri Guy 50-1
5 Grand Couturier 10-1
2 Red Rocks 7-2
4 Shamdinan 20-1
8 Transduction Gold 30-1


I personally saw Dylan Thomas win the Arc earlier this month.

He can claim to be the best horse on earth right now.

HOWEVER... the handicapper in me cannot take 7 to 5 on a horse that just raced in France in the toughest race of his life (that he should not have won) 3 weeks earlier than facing a tough field here, facing turns he has never done well in. He raced one time in america, last year, In I think the Jocky Gold Cup and got whipped on dirt against Bernerdini. but it wasd dirt and he's a turf horse, but I don't think e liked the turns either

red rocks at 7 to 2 is a joke. He won this race last year. But he hasn't done jack **** all year long. the only way he qualified is because he won last year.

Better talk now is always dangerous and won tisr ace a coupl eof years back but he's gettin up there in age.

English Channel is oine of my fav horses, but I can't take him at 5 to 2. 5 to 1 I would probaly jump.


there isn't one viable betting option to me in this race. sometimes the best pick is no pick. just sit back and enjoy

 

[backbreaker]

The Breeders Cup Classic

This is the big daddy and one of the most anticpated races I can ever remember. There hasn't been a field of horses this accomplished in one race on dirt since 1998.

5 million dollar mile and a quarter race over dirt for horses 3 and up

3 Any Given Saturday 4-1
6 Awesome Gem 30-1
4 Curlin 3-1
7 Diamond Stripes 15-1
5 George Washington 20-1
8 Hard Spun 8-1
1 Lawyer Ron 5-2
2 Street Sense 3-1
9 Tiago 12-1


I have been handicapping tyhis race since litearrly january. and i can sit here and tell you, every horse execpt 1 can win it. and that one is Diamon Stripes. he has no chance

Any Given Saturday has always been good. He won the haskell, beating curlin and has won the Brooklyn Handicap, who he beat no one. He is good.. but I Don't think he is THIS good.

Awesome Gem is very interging. I'm not going to bet him but I'm not going to **** on anyone who does. e has finished 2nd in tw2o grade ones back to back, racing on poly track, a track that given his pedigree, he sould not like. Awesome Again with unbridled's song ont e bottom spells one track and one track only.. DIRT. and he hasn't raced on a dirt track since january. It's what's called a grow up play. you are playing on what he sould be able to do. **** I am talking myself into betting him now listen to me. but there is too much stuff I KNOW about thisr ace to bet on something I don't know

Curlin can win the race, and he's one of y fav horses. He even bet the fav, lawyer ron last race at this same distance earlier this month. wouldn't shock me in the least bit to take him here.

however... his worst race of his life.. came on this track. the haskell he finished 3rd to hard spun and any given saturday, two horses he demoished twice in the past elsewhere. he's huge and I dont' think he likes the tight turns of the track or maybe the surface he looked like he was spinning wheels at the haskell. anyway, I can't take 3 to 1 and I dont' think he's going to win. he could, and if this was at Oaklawn or pimlico instead of MOntmouth he might be my horse

George Washington is intreging. He is owned by Coolmore and races in England. He raced his last year in what was supposed to be his last race, here in tis same race last year. Came in 6th. which when you look at it.. isn't half bad considering who he finished behind.. Invasor.. one of the best horses ever, Premium Tap, who is still racing now, but racing in Turkey, and if he was racing in this race, would be the 1-1 fav, best dirt horse in the world right now, but only races 2 times a year. Anyway, they send him to stud duty, and he is shooting blanks, so tey bring im out of retirement and bring him into a tough race at Ascot which he comes in 3rd. throws in some very decent efforts as well elsewhere

I think it is twofold why he is here. first.. they think he can win it. Secondly, I think he's coolmores best cance in making sure Darley doesnt' win the most prestious dirt race in the world, as darly owns the stud rigts to STreet Sense, any given saturday and hard spun

But.. he has temper tantroms as well. Plus.. eveything else. I think there are better optiopns but I could see him winning. he's talented.

Hard Spun is the most overrated horse on the planet. this horse will not win this race. he is a turf horse, whob ecause of his dumb jack ass owners, has never in his life ran on turf. to put it in persepctive, In human turns, hard spun is george washington's uncle. Dazing sired Hard Spun. George WAshington is sired by danehill who is sired by Dazing. Turf.. world class turf all the way.

Hard Spun is talented, very much so, but he has never won a race at a mile and a quarter, and today will not be any different. he is not stroung enough to hold off the late kick from the plethra of closers in this race and iwll be pressed every bit of the way by laywer ron and maybe even Diamon Stripes

I don't like Lawyer Ron. First, I hate todd pletcher. Secondly, I hate todd Pletcher. Thirdly, he ha snever won at this distance, he runs rank (which means he cannot be controled and does 't preserve entergy) and has never in his life, EVER, beaten a Grade 1 calibur horse. NEVER. EVER. NOT ONCE. pletcher spots him in tis power puff races where he wins by daylight beating no one and gets all the gloriy, but last race, he took on a real horse, curlin and got punked in the stretch. he finished 9th in tis race last year. If he beats me, damnit he beats me. but i"m not buyin it.


Street Sense is the most preplexed betting horse probably of all time. I love his trainer. and what is so preplexing is because he is ovbiously a good horse. But EVERY big race he has EVER won... the races that really put him on the map, the races that made who he is now.. came at one track. Chruchill Downs. the Breeders Cup Juve last year and the kentucky derby last year were both at curchill. IN the Jim Dandy at Saratoga this year he beat all of C P WEst who can't even win an allowence race. He damn near got beat, photo finish win at te Travers against a horse named Grasshopper at Saratoga who next out lost in a grade 2 super derby to a horse I've never heard of taht was 15 to 1.

He looses to Hard Spun in Turfway. He loses to Domincan at Keeneland. last year he lost to Circular Quay and Great Hunter at Keeneland.

Another thing that's preplexing is.. his trainer is famous, if not world reknown and probably evented the term "cranked". meaning having a horse cranked and ready to run. When he points towards a race, he usually wins it. Look at his race in the Juve last year.. litaarly blew the field away. He said then, he's pointing towards the kentucky derby and the race before he lost by anose to a horse that isnt' that good.. the derby he blew by the field again. He does this time and time again with his horses.. but this horse.. id ont' know if he is that good.

Curlin beat him in the preakness. at pimlico. I can see him winning it if Carl has him cranked for this race which he does ovbiousy.

I just can't pull the trigger. and I can't do it with all thoose questions and throw in a 3 to 1 price tag. he will not go off at 3 to 1, eh will be the fav I promise you which makes it worse. I just can't do it. you might be able to. I can't

My horse, the one I've been preaching about since July when he won the Swaps, is Tiago. This son of Pleasat Tap came in 6t in the derby, 3rd in the belmont.. but any one who follws breeding knows most pleasant tap's dont rea;lly come into form utnil they get older.. and the switch flipped in this horses head at the swaps stakes. he toyed with that field.

A normal graded stakes, a normal grade 1 for a mile and an 8th, is going to be run in sub 1:49.. around that time. Usually between 1:47 3 and 1:49 flat.

Tiago came back last month and won the Goodwood in 1:46 and 2

IN horse racing terms that you can understand, a second is 4 lengths....

What I like to call puppy dog handicappers, the people who basically regurtate what they hear on TV, will say 1. he hasn't beaten anyone and He got beat by these same horses earlier this year, where I will say 1) neither has lawyer ron and he's the fav so what's your point? and 2) he's not the same horse.

when he won the Santa Anita Derby, a Grade 1 race, he was litedrarly looking in the stands at the crowd down the strech, wondering in and out, not even running straight. he was still very green. Saw him in the Goodwood and he was the ultimate professional he's just not the same horse and it's night and day.

he can run forever. he can sit WAY back or sit Right off the pace. and his jockey mike smith has a hot girlfriend and I wouldn't mind taking a look at her in the winners circle.


to show you how horse racing works and how people don't do their own work.. look at Curlin and Laywer ron in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Curlin won the race and both him and lawyer ron got a 114 speed figure winning in 1:47 and 3.

So explain to me, how Tiago won the Goodwood, in 1:46 and 2 and got a LOWER speed rating at I think 105?

Becasue basically... Tiago being better than than any horse in the east coast doesn't fly and the figures have to match that theory. That and Polytrack variances.. but 1:46 is FLYING. I've only seen one horse go that fast and that horse was Ghostzapper who I think is the best horse of all time if you look at his times.

90% of all bets are made using speed figures. it's the only reason tiago is 12 to 1. Most arguemnts start with "look at his figures".. well they just don't add up which is hwy I dont' use them.

and at 12 to 1, I can't pass this up. I'm going to go with Tiago to win, holding off curlin and street sense
for 2nd and 3rd with awesome Gem coming in 4th


so there you have it. I hope you take the time to read this, as it took a while but I want everyone to know what they are looking at and be able to apprciate the races they see in front of them. I will answer any questions you have up utnil then, feel free to ask.

If you watch on ESPN2, races start on Friday at I think 2pm EST and if you watch Saturday it's on eSPN STarting at noon.

ENJOY!

 

[backbreaker]

I'm going to post some pictures that have to do with the breeders cup


Here is a picture of Trippi's Storm working out in the morning..shoot..today

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69472



Here is a picture of Tough Tiz's Sis who is trained by Bob Baffert, getting off the van and arriving at Monmouth Park

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69451

Here is my horse, Tiago, acting a plump fool.. really uncharastic of him.. I've actually petted him a couple of times, pull his tounge and you have a friend for life. of horses, and espically really good ones, while aren't that agreesive, just dont' let strangers pet him. something got under his skin

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69391

Here is a picture of STreet Sense with Calvin Borel up. A little more lathered up than I would like to see.. but what do I know.

Here is a picture of Midnight Lute. You won't find a prettier horse

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69421

Here is a picture of Grace Anatomy. For you Mets fans, he's owned by Paul Lo Duca

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69370

Here is a picture of Carl Nafzger, the trainer of Street Sense and Lady Joanne, which is pronunced Jone-e, which makes no sense to me.

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69400


Here is a picture of Calvin Borel. The man literarly.. cannot read or write and has made over 20 million dollars in his career. 1 or 100.. it's all green to him.

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69399


Here is a picture of Todd Pletcher, the man has gone a combined 1 for 80 in The big Races... the breeeders cup races and the triple crown races, and yet he's considered to be the top trainer in the country. you can have him

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69340

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69435


Here is a picture of discreet Cat

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=69259



Here is the the filly irish smoke. the prettiest hosre I've ever laid eyes on. I have a horse crush on irish smoke. Take note of the woman riding her as well, she's been mentioned a few times here

http://horsephotos.com/watermark.jsp?photoID=68183

 

[wolf116]

Hmm I may just get into punting. My dad is a professional punter. He bought his house through it, I could steel his system. No he will teach me.
He also just purchased a horse.

 

[ketostix]

I don't know much of anything about horse betting. But how could someone bet money off track on your picks?

 

[6-heads lewis]

thanks for posting this

 

[backbreaker]

just doing my part

made to to Monmouth early this morning. Missed the first part of the day, which is like at 6am but still got some great pictures

also any given saturday looks like total crap. he has lost a ton of weight.. maybe 100 pounds and was sweating up a storm, and is a nervous wreck. he looked bigger in the kentucky derby which was 6 months ago, and that's saying alot for a still growing. definate throw out

Here is a picture of Street Sense's owner's grandaughter taking Street Sense out to graze on grass.

http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff85/strawberryroad/StreetSenseGrazing.jpg

Here is a picture of street sense walking around the track. he usually walks once around the track than jogs around once a day

Here is a picture of Greg's Gold. he will be one of the fav's in te Breeders Cup Sprint. He has a shot, but I don't think he has beaten anyone and he hasn't raced on dirt all year.

I made a concoius effort to find the horse I knew very little about, jermery and I found him. Very pretty horse. I have always liked thoose fancy blue leg wraps

However after more reserach, you can have him.

 

[mahon83050]

I work 5 minutes from Monmouth Track...it will be pandemonium indeed!!

 

[backbreaker]

where are you at? I'm at the Courtyard by Marriot on half mile road, maybe we can meat up?

 

[Suicide]

I have to disagree on the Distaff...I'm going with Octave.

I have had Tiago fingered for the Classic for a while now. I'd like to see him win.

Why hystericalady?