Crypto trading

[Fruitbat]

Is that any different than stocks? How many average people know what a company does if they are just watching the charts?

How many people who invested in Berkshire Hathaway when it started it's huge run upwards could have told you what they did? Probably very few.

Yes. You have published financial data. It’s why actual investment professionals study and research the fundamentals of companies and make calls based on that information.

They do not look at moving averages on charts, by and large.

it’s the difference between TA (who mainly lose money, in terms of private investors, I think the figure is huge, it’s like 90% of day traders lose money), and actual analysis. The last tells you nothing. Patterns never last. Entropy always wins. The world random.

I sold all my tech in March 2020 and bought commodity producers and energy. So did a lot of institutions. This was based largely off the back of the absolutely obvious commodity and inflation spike after supply side disruptions and huge M4 expansion.

i actually explained all this above, about how everything is based on a risk free rate under the capital asset pricing model. You said “crypto doesn’t care about your theories”. but seems that the theories don’t seem to care about crypto. We have inflation - which BTC is supposed to hold or increase value when it’s present, but it’s selling off like a risk asset.

The reason Berkshire Hathaway has beaten a lot of other investments and very publicly the Ark Innovation and SMT, is precisely because BH looks at fundamentals.

Efficient market hypothesis in Semi strong form: All valuations are correct and only fundamental analysis can uncover mispriced assets .
There’s centuries of research behind all of this.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Is it some sort of surprise that dubiously valued assets shoot up in value at the same time as the money supply?

Money Supply

www.shadowstats.com

The party is over. They can't sustain it. Even more fun is the massive amount of debt companies are carrying, because of their short term focus on the next earnings report. It seems stupid to not borrow when money is cheap. What could go wrong? It's not like interest rates ever go up.

 

[jaygreenb]

I sold all my tech in March 2020 and bought commodity producers and energy. So did a lot of institutions. This was based largely off the back of the absolutely obvious commodity and inflation spike after supply side disruptions and huge M4 expansion.

If you sold all your tech in march 2020 you missed a good 18 months of unprecedented performance. It took a while for inflation to work its way through the system, it showed up in financial assets and real estate first. I had a similar idea and loaded up on physical metals and miners when they all crashed that march/april, after the initial run performance became muted and retraced during the greatest monetary expansion in history. Saying that Bitcoin is supposed to move in lockstep with inflation when the original hedge of gold did not is just silly. There are a many variables at play and all move on different timelines. If you take bitcoins performance from March 2020 it had gone well beyond inflation.

 

[jaygreenb]

Is it some sort of surprise that dubiously valued assets shoot up in value at the same time as the money supply?

Money Supply

www.shadowstats.com

The party is over. They can't sustain it. Even more fun is the massive amount of debt companies are carrying, because of their short term focus on the next earnings report. It seems stupid to not borrow when money is cheap. What could go wrong? It's not like interest rates ever go up.

Almost all assets shot up during this time, there is a day of reckoning coming probably sooner than later but cherry picking one asset class is disingenuous. Also would like to point out you have been saying this since bitcoin was at 3k lol

 

[Reyaj]

I saw some alt called dia went up 96% lol. What caused this? How does one get access to this info?

 

[jaygreenb]

I saw some alt called dia went up 96% lol. What caused this? How does one get access to this info?

Small caps are easily manipulated imagine it has nothing to do with any fundamentals. Could be a number of reasons but probably none of them have any meaning

 

[Fruitbat]

If you sold all your tech in march 2020 you missed a good 18 months of unprecedented performance. It took a while for inflation to work its way through the system, it showed up in financial assets and real estate first. I had a similar idea and loaded up on physical metals and miners when they all crashed that march/april, after the initial run performance became muted and retraced during the greatest monetary expansion in history. Saying that Bitcoin is supposed to move in lockstep with inflation when the original hedge of gold did not is just silly. There are a many variables at play and all move on different timelines. If you take bitcoins performance from March 2020 it had gone well beyond inflation.

That’s true, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Tech/growth had done really well leading into 2020 but what happened after wasn’t really performance in terms of fundamentals, it was a bubble. The Shiller PEs were off the charts.

Now may be time to start buying it back, investing is a long term game and buying distressed assets is where it’s at. I might miss out on even more growth in value, but it’s impossible to call tops and bottoms long term. Even 50% of the time is hard.

As buffet says, making money slowly is the key long term.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Also would like to point out you have been saying this since bitcoin was at 3k lol

Almost half of the current holders of bitcoin are underwater. How many of them bought because of your recommendation? I doubt you ever consider such things.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

Small caps are easily manipulated imagine it has nothing to do with any fundamentals. Could be a number of reasons but probably none of them have any meaning

I'm convinced 99% are going to 0. That 95% is rubbish though you can make money on virtually anything. Allocating money on prestigious assets that are disruptive. The hardest part atm is being in a large cash position far longer then I anticipated. Following the shenanigans the past few years, a larger mini **** you fund is a necessity. I'm ready to ape in should the floor drop out over the summer or far sooner. I'm sure we're not yet hit the bottom or better yet we will retest.

I'm sticking to the script until I get new info or my process is no longer successful.

 

[jaygreenb]

Almost half of the current holders of bitcoin are underwater. How many of them bought because of your recommendation? I doubt you ever consider such things.

A lot of people have, the vast majority of them bought in 17-20 and most are up many multiples. This is well documented in the old threads we both participated in. I am not as vocal with it now but when people do ask me I tell them to set up an auto buy and DCA BTC and ETH. Even if someone started that process in the past year, they will be fine and are not hurt like most of retail is now. I let them know out the gate, set up an auto buy, don't expect to get rich overnight and can take several years to get outside the volatility range of your cost basis.

 

[jaygreenb]

That’s true, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Tech/growth had done really well leading into 2020 but what happened after wasn’t really performance in terms of fundamentals, it was a bubble. The Shiller PEs were off the charts.

Now may be time to start buying it back, investing is a long term game and buying distressed assets is where it’s at. I might miss out on even more growth in value, but it’s impossible to call tops and bottoms long term. Even 50% of the time is hard.

As buffet says, making money slowly is the key long term.

That was my point, markets often do not move in ways that make sense in the short term, it is impossible to predict or anticipate many times. Normal pricing signals have increasingly not made sense the past decade since the last crisis. Often times is just takes positioning for a trend the next 5-10yrs and being very patient. Shorter term moves are impossible to predict consistently

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm convinced 99% are going to 0. That 95% is rubbish though you can make money on virtually anything. Allocating money on prestigious assets that are disruptive. The hardest part atm is being in a large cash position far longer then I anticipated. Following the shenanigans the past few years, a larger mini **** you fund is a necessity. I'm ready to ape in should the floor drop out over the summer or far sooner. I'm sure we're not yet hit the bottom or better yet we will retest.

I'm sticking to the script until I get new info or my process is no longer successful.

There are only a couple that I would be willing to sit in for the long term. Most coins get one hype cycle then disappear in the bear market. It is like trying to thread a needle catching those price pumps. I think you have a solid plan, I have been building large cash position for a while too. If we get a large deflationary period, which I think is very likely, no assets will be safe.

 

[jaygreenb]

Almost half of the current holders of bitcoin are underwater. How many of them bought because of your recommendation? I doubt you ever consider such things.

Even your boy is on board, just need schiff and rogers now lol

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527391293420326913

 

[Bible_Belt]

Even your boy is on board, just need schiff and rogers now lol

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527391293420326913

The lesson I hope everyone learns from your presence here is that when someone tells you that you are stupid for *not* investing in an asset, run. Don't walk, run.

 

[jaygreenb]

The lesson I hope everyone learns from your presence here is that when someone tells you that you are stupid for *not* investing in an asset, run. Don't walk, run.

When did I call anyone stupid? You're the guy hoping on threads of investments you do not like, pretty strange actually. Especially considering how poor your views perform.

 

[mattinzane]

We went from an everything bubble to a bear market in everything. If history is any guide, bitcoin will go down 85% like the last bear market to a low of around 10K. And all other cryptos will go down 90 - 100% This happened last time, so I expect it will happen again. I won't be adding any cryptos until they go down at least 80%, that is the time to slowly start accumulating your favorite coins again.

 

[Fruitbat]

Almost half of the current holders of bitcoin are underwater. How many of them bought because of your recommendation? I doubt you ever consider such things.

There was a prediction of BTC at £100k before the end of 2021.

The only reason a lot of folks are really crowing about this tanking of crypto is the incredible arrogance of cryptobros.

I know someone who “retired” at 34 to the Far East. He’s now back and working.

its people getting FOMO and listening which is the tragedy.

The idea that any asset retraces in price and then doubles or triples is absurd. There are myriad reasons why assets increase and decrease, and patterns like that don’t exist. They might have happened, in the same way a coin might flip heads three times. Extrapolating that to a theory of future behaviour is dangerous.

Relationships exist, things like covariance, correlation etc, but again, these change over time.

 

[jaygreenb]

There was a prediction of BTC at £100k before the end of 2021.

The only reason a lot of folks are really crowing about this tanking of crypto is the incredible arrogance of cryptobros.

I know someone who “retired” at 34 to the Far East. He’s now back and working.

its people getting FOMO and listening which is the tragedy.

The idea that any asset retraces in price and then doubles or triples is absurd. There are myriad reasons why assets increase and decrease, and patterns like that don’t exist. They might have happened, in the same way a coin might flip heads three times. Extrapolating that to a theory of future behaviour is dangerous.

Relationships exist, things like covariance, correlation etc, but again, these change over time.

You are coming to a thread on crypto to police what people are saying, that is some real Karen Behavior. What is absurd is coming to threads of investments you have no interest in acting like some morally superior white knight. There are idiots in every space, have no control of that or other people say.

Go through this thread, this was in Dec 2018 when btc was bouncing between 3-4k, I was saying the same things then. do you feel bad for them too? I have many friends and family who have made between low 6 to mid 7 figures.

Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

I remember a few months ago there were several posters who were talking up bitcoin like there was no tomorrow. Now that Bitcoin has dropped to 6K and is nearing the point of no return where it costs more to mine the coins than the coins are actually worth(somewhere around 5K), they seem oddly...

www.sosuave.net

 

[Fruitbat]

You are coming to a thread on crypto to police what people are saying, that is some real Karen Behavior. What is absurd is coming to threads of investments you have no interest in acting like some morally superior white knight. There are idiots in every space, have no control of that or other people say.

Go through this thread, this was in Dec 2018 when btc was bouncing between 3-4k, I was saying the same things then. do you feel bad for them too? I have many friends and family who have made between low 6 to mid 7 figures.

Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

I remember a few months ago there were several posters who were talking up bitcoin like there was no tomorrow. Now that Bitcoin has dropped to 6K and is nearing the point of no return where it costs more to mine the coins than the coins are actually worth(somewhere around 5K), they seem oddly...

www.sosuave.net

Calling people out on predictions, which were made to shill their investments at the expense of others, is not “policing”.

Getting in at 3-4K at best you would need to invest 50,000 to get seven figures. If people were wealthy or risk tolerant enough to sink 50K into a speculative asset, credit to them.

People have done exactly the same recently and are sat on huge losses. On the encouragement of crypto bros.

If you want the thread to be a circle jerk, go right ahead. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

 

[jaygreenb]

Calling people out on predictions, which were made to shill their investments at the expense of others, is not “policing”.

Getting in at 3-4K at best you would need to invest 50,000 to get seven figures. If people were wealthy or risk tolerant enough to sink 50K into a speculative asset, credit to them.

People have done exactly the same recently and are sat on huge losses. On the encouragement of crypto bros.

If you want the thread to be a circle jerk, go right ahead. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

That is exactly what is considered policing. Your posts come across more as gloating than trying to be informative. No actual value was provided. Relying on short price action to confirm your narrative you will always be behind curve and have mediocre returns. If you actually understand this asset class, price is one of the least important metrics long term. There are a few right and many wrong ways to approach getting exposure. I have never promoted anything more than a measured responsible approach, keep it a small percentage of net worth and to stick primarily with BTC & ETH.

There are plenty of landmines in this space as well people who have no clue what they are doing. Bitcoin and the rest of crypto are two completely separate types of investments. I have many friends who have put in well over 50k including myself as well as some less. Point being everyone who has been involved several years has done very well. Many life changing well.

You said it was a tragedy anyone involved in this space. Just pointing out how incorrect you are and know many people have generated very high life altering returns. For people coming into tail end and went all in on small caps and meme coins, yeah they are screwed. You obviously do not have an understanding of the space but appreciate the warning. What that is I'm being warned about, not sure.