Was it worth shutting down the economy?

[zekko]

By this professor's estimates, about ten percent of americans have the virus already:

Unless I'm missing something, he says it's 10 million people, which is about 3% of the population in the US. If it was 10%, that might actually be good news, because it means the death rate would be lower (as a percentage), and we'd be that much closer to herd immunity. Because who knows, if this thing continues to hang around, we're liable to be locked in our houses until they can roll out a vaccine, and we might be lucky to get one of those by the end of next year. If the country's closed that long, who knows what kind of effect that might have?

 

[Spaz]

@Spaz spin master, yet another money making opportunity. I will open Thinker's spin master consulting services immediately if not sooner. I will also start a spin master online course as yet another income stream, by the way I know that you are wondering what the price of the course will be but since you were so critical in this multi income stream money making opportunity I am going to let you have the course for free ( I am going to need you to give me a glowing review of the course for marketing purposes).

This must be ur maximum attempt at making humor.

I could say it's average at best (just to make you happier) but then people will say I'm just spinning the truth....

 

[Spaz]

If the country's closed that long, who knows what kind of effect that might have?

It will be extremely bad.

Countries needs to open up ASAP and it all depends on people being disciplined, adhering to the lockdown, social distancing etc.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Unless I'm missing something, he says it's 10 million people, which is about 3% of the population in the US. If it was 10%, that might actually be good news, because it means the death rate would be lower (as a percentage), and we'd be that much closer to herd immunity. Because who knows, if this thing continues to hang around, we're liable to be locked in our houses until they can roll out a vaccine, and we might be lucky to get one of those by the end of next year. If the country's closed that long, who knows what kind of effect that might have?

He gave a number of 1.6% of us cases being detected. Our case count is 560k right now. Divide 560,000 by .016 and you get 35 million.

If ten percent of us have it already, I don't know if that is good or bad. It lowers mortality rate but increases contagion rate.

 

[zekko]

He gave a number of 1.6% of us cases being detected. Our case count is 560k right now. Divide 560,000 by .016 and you get 35 million.

Sounds screwy. In the body of the article he says the US really had over 10 million. The article was from April 7, so it's an outdated number. But there were 403,521 cases on April 7. Using your method, that would have given us over 25 million. Maybe the article was just using outdated numbers.

Anyway, whether it's good or bad depends on whether you're a pessimist or an optimist. The higher number means more people have the antibodies. If you're an optimist.

 

[Billtx49]

He gave a number of 1.6% of us cases being detected. Our case count is 560k right now. Divide 560,000 by .016 and you get 35 million.

If ten percent of us have it already, I don't know if that is good or bad. It lowers mortality rate but increases contagion rate.

Results from another university study.…
I thought we where all finally on to frontline medical professional advice by now.

Brings back a memory of the Imperial College study that predicted 500K deaths for UK, now downgraded to 20K by finally using unfaulty predictive modeling.
Same study said 2M deaths for the US…

Word to the wise - Incorrect facts and stats will give you the wrong mindset during a difficult time.

 

[EyeBRollin]

That's asinine. So, now you're looking for child sacrifices? My kids haven't even caught the sniffles. I'm the most at risk member of my family. My wife is much younger, and very athletic. I'm the one over 50, and the only one who's gotten sick during all this. If anyone is gonna die, it'll be me. And, my parents are already dead; if they weren't, yes, I'd be concerned about them...especially since that's exactly how my father did die...in the hospital, with pneumonia.

I've done plenty of things that caused others to call me "crazy," or to imply that I had a "death wish," I just never thought that working through flu season would ever be one of those things. Aren't you even a little embarrassed?

I will die, and so will you, and everyone you love. That's life. However, that you equate marginal risk with human sacrifice makes me a little embarrassed for you.

People shouldn't be sacrificed for sake of the economy. You argued that people dying is worth it. So I'm asking... are you volunteering? You gonna die for this economy?

 

[EyeBRollin]

Brings back a memory of the Imperial College study that predicted 500K deaths for UK, now downgraded to 20K by finally using unfaulty predictive modeling.
Same study said 2M deaths for the US…

...2 million deaths without any social distancing. (a.k.a. "Let it rip") Let's not leave out that important detail.

 

[Billtx49]

...2 million deaths without any social distancing. (a.k.a. "Let it rip") Let's not leave out that important detail.

Let’s not leave out that they released a report that scared many people including some on this Forum without having All the pertinent facts to back it up…

 

[redskinsfan92]

How many deaths are acceptable? Please give a number.

The economy isn't the only issue here. How many will die because they didn't get that lump checked in time. That annual heart exam delayed. Eye exam delayed. Shall I go on?

 

[thinker]

@Spaz you flatter me even more you silver tongued devil. @corrector you are skating around my central points, I was in a bad place years ago, I had made some bad decisions and was paying the price for doing so. I woke up one day and for the first time in weeks I was as clear as I had ever been. At that moment I was reminded that life is precious and fleeting and that I had to dust myself off and get back to work on my beautiful life. If you keep doing what you are doing and believing in your limiting beliefs you will wake up one day when you are too old to do much good for yourself and come to the realization that you have thrown away the greatest gift you were ever given, the gift of your life. @EyeBRollin the original model called for 5 million deaths in the U.S. if nothing was done. The models after that had the social distancing and other forms of mitigation included and they were still way off. Look buddy I get it you guys took your best shot but now is time to just let it go, you are really looking desperate now and it's not a good look.

 

[redskinsfan92]

...2 million deaths without any social distancing. (a.k.a. "Let it rip") Let's not leave out that important detail.

This is about way more than the economy. I reject your argument in its entirety. You tried to force this into lives vs. money.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Let’s not leave out that they released a report that scared many people including some on this Forum without having All the pertinent facts to back it up…

That's what modeling is, attempting to predict the future, using...you know, science and stuff.

 

[Billtx49]

That's what modeling is, attempting to predict the future, using...you know, science and stuff.

Yes, educated guesswork, not to be taken as absolute facts….

 

[corrector]

[@corrector[/USER] you are skating around my central points

A read of your central points is that you were saying that I'm incel (a point I'm not disputing), and that escorts are rejecting me (a point which I am disputing). The incel point is something you brought up in a tone that sounded like a personal attack and frankly like you are trying to pick a fight with me....which my point is you should get your facts straight.

The previous posts I've made to this thread that you have replied to was not personal and was a general contribution to the thread. I may attack systems or institutions or concepts, but I don't attack people unless I'm provoked.

So, what are your central points, I should start seeing escorts and risk more demonic attacks or I'll get too old for them and regret I didn't see them more frequently when I'm younger? That is a literal read of some of the issues and how you are presenting them. As you raised the issue of escorts, I can tell you, after seeing the escort named Bianca, I'm good even 6 years later and if I saw her, it's not necessary to see another lady escort because I already had that experience.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Let’s not leave out that they released a report that scared many people including some on this Forum without having All the pertinent facts to back it up…

Are you accusing the model of being not credible?

The economy isn't the only issue here. How many will die because they didn't get that lump checked in time. That annual heart exam delayed. Eye exam delayed. Shall I go on?

Please do continue. You're strengthening my position.

This is about way more than the economy. I reject your argument in its entirety. You tried to force this into lives vs. money.

That's exactly what the OP is. Lives vs. money. "Is it worth it?"

 

[Xenom0rph]

Yes, educated guesswork, not to be taken as absolute facts….

There was a time when having a bit of skepticism and questioning narratives was a sign of wisdom....but these days if you question if institutions have a particular narrative that they're pimping out and if they built their model to further that narrative, certain individuals will try to insinuate that you're stupid while they themselves blindly believe whatever they've been spoonfed by said institutions.....like a bunch of sheep.....

....and it's usually one particular side of the political spectrum that engages in this behaviour....hint: it's the side that thinks Gender Studies is a real science....

 

[redskinsfan92]

My alternative plan is simple. Keep the economy open and quarantine the elderly and immune compromised. Let herd immunity actually happen. Eliminate the chance of a 2nd wave. Then the elderly and immune compromised come out quarantine within 2 months.

90% of U.S. deaths from Covid-19 is age 55 or older.

 

[GoodOne123]

My alternative plan is simple. Keep the economy open and quarantine the elderly and immune compromised. Let herd immunity actually happen. Eliminate the chance of a 2nd wave. Then the elderly and immune compromised come out quarantine within 2 months.

90% of U.S. deaths from Covid-19 is age 55 or older.

I've already thought of this too. But there are a few counter arguments to this.

Firstly there is a higher chance people will take isolating less seriously if only a select few were told to do it. The mortality rate will be higher compared to a total lockdown situation.

Secondly, there will be a lot of strain on hospitals due to a higher rate of people catching the virus. In a worst case scenario some people may die due to not being able to get the medical care they need. Even though the mortality rate is low, a lot of healthy young people need medical attention when they catch the virus. Most recover, but that is due to enough nurses, hospital beds, ventilators etc being available to them.

 

[bcude]

My alternative plan is simple. Keep the economy open and quarantine the elderly and immune compromised. Let herd immunity actually happen. Eliminate the chance of a 2nd wave. Then the elderly and immune compromised come out quarantine within 2 months.

90% of U.S. deaths from Covid-19 is age 55 or older.

It wouldn't work because you're simplifying this using deaths as the only measurement.
Hospitals are filled with people of every age in need of ICU being severely ill, just because older people have worse odds of surviving doesn't mean younger people won't get effected, so the outcome would still be a healthcare that's completely overrun, meaning non-existent healthcare for everyone due to overload. That's just the reality with multiplicative spreads.
Second point herd immunity will always happen at one point in the future no matter the strategy, that's the only way to get totally rid of viruses like this. It's just a matter of how fast or slow you make that happen.

UK tried your way in the beginning, but changed after pressure from leading professors and scientists. Sweden are taking your approach but the economy is still basically shut down because people choose to distance themselves since most people have parents they want to protect, just like yourself i imagine. The elderly and most fragile are totally isolated and they say they wont be allowed to come out until the end of the year. The virus still reached them through their asymptomatic caregivers so that proved to be a failure but unavoidable.
2nd waves almost always occur because viruses mutate and restrictions are removed. It's not exact science, there's an element of trial, error and adaption to it.

I would love to see an approach that would actually work without having to shut down the economy for a period of time, but it's just not realistic.
The real question is the amount of measures necessary and how fast or slow you ease them back to normal.