Corporate gyms might but I do not see a lot of small independent gyms surviving. My prediction is we haven't even begun to see the true economical damage this lock down will have on business's. Come 4-6 months from now you're going to see a lot of empty commercial real estate.
When everything opens there is going to be some really ridiculous sanitation and post covid safety rules in place like wearing masks, plastic dividers on treadmills, maybe close showers temporarily, close every other locker to social distance. Some people are not going to like it that they'll cancel their membership.
Then you have a group of people who invested in some form of a home gym during the lockdown. Those people have now adapted to them to the point they see no reason to go back on top of the monthly savings. Then the people who live in fear who might wait a year from now before stepping foot in a gym.
I think gyms will survive the COVID crisis because of the obesity crisis. We're too fat collectively. We need to lose weight.
In the short run, some gym companies will have problems. I heard that 24 Hour was considering bankruptcy, and Gold's is restructuring. I'm curious to see how class based studios like Orangetheory, Soul Cycle, Title Boxing, etc survive this.
Most obese people sign up on New years, go for a month to brag to their friends, then stop going. Obese people have now adapted to walking outside as their main form of exercise or doing things like online at home workouts. Also with the huge number of unemployed people, they arent going to have the extra income to spend for a while. It's that's gap of getting up financially that's going to cripple gyms on top of fear.
