Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon @SW15 @Fortune_favors_the_bold

I've seen a lot of interesting stuff over the last couple days. As was discussed on here recently, there is a plan for the U.S government to keep that 200k+ BTC it has but it is also planning on buying up BTC to get the reserve to 1 million coins, or roughly 5% of the total supply. However, the other day I saw that the state of Florida is planning on creating a BTC reserve, though on a much smaller scale of course. I partially wonder if this will throw off the 4 year cycles we've had or if we just see greatly diminished volatility.

I also saw that Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, is going to be a policy maker in Washington as some sort of crypto advisor, full details haven't been disclosed.

My thoughts, I plan on just holding BTC long term and going to take things one month at a time to see where we head into next year. I personally think we will still see market cycles, especially with alts, but I am also completely open to the idea of being flexible with this given certain changes in the space. I can't imagine where things are going to be within the next 3-6 months.

Hard to tell actually, maybe cycles wont be as volatile as before.

Maybe it will work exactly with stocks, good years and bad years but overall positive growth.

One thing for sure, blackrock is in and they have a reputation to manage even before their clients money.

 

[Divorced w 3]

It is not so much the access the capital but just to diversify out some to sleep better at night. I have been buying heavily since mid 2017 and had many multiples of appreciation, it is a considerable amount of my net worth at this point and am crossing into the very high category. My retirement account is only around 15% of my liquid investable assets so have plenty outside of that if I need to access capital or use as collateral. There is also the potential they get rid of cap gains on btc at some point so would prefer to avoid that and see how that plays out.



I am 44 and today have more than I would need to cover that gap if prices stayed the same. I do expect considerable appreciation to continue and find it comforting to have a stocked retirement account that isn't correlated just in case everything else went sideways.

Can’t find any issue in what you’re saying, makes sense

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

93

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Pumping over 93K today...holy crap...buckle up buttercup...we going on a ride.

 

[sangheilios]

Back in 2013, it was nuts. It was a hobby project with an uncertain future. The year after that, Mt Gox was hacked and collapsed.



He's assuming Bitcoin's price will multiply by 1000. And that would make it $87 billion, not trillion.
At current prices, 1000 BTC x $87k/BTC = $87 million.

Exactly. Vast majority of those people that had BTC from those early days basically bought and sold instead of long term holding. It had such a small market cap back then that it would have been more comparable to the **** coins you see that aren't even in the top 30.

I really don't think this market became all that legitimate or mainstream until the 2017 bull run, though I'd say the 2021 bull run was what solidified this.

 

[sangheilios]

@Solomon @jaygreenb @SW15 @Fortune_favors_the_bold

BTC dominance is around 60% right now and it will most likely be the center of most of the action through the rest of the year 2024 and maybe a couple months into 2025. Alts will more or less go along for the ride through this time period, but really not do much relative to BTC. However, I think the true alt season will definitely kick off sometime next year, maybe February or March. Basically, we'll see BTC make a huge move and then watch dominance collapse as alts take off.

What we've seen lately is playing out eerily similar to what we've seen in previous cycles, and it's very likely that 2025 will continue this pattern.

@jaygreenb will especially like this lol.

There's a guy I know that's been in crypto as long as I have but drastically behind where I'm at lol. Last cycle he was obsessed with Bcash and kept saying it was going to hit 10k. However, it lagged into 2021 and he then swapped over into shiba and was vocal about it hitting $1/coin. I distinctly recall this moment because I had no idea what the market cap of the project was and after seeing that number he threw out I just laughed lol.

However, this time around he is obsessed with XRP. Today he was telling me that it's going to at least hit $10 and possibly even $30 lol. The best part is that he said he'd never sell, so even if these numbers did happen, which they won't, he'd basically hold those bags and round trip them lol.

The point I'm getting at with this story is that retail noobs and FOMO are starting to make their way to space, though it's still pretty early. I think once BTC makes a strong move past 100k or even blows past this it will spark massive amounts of retail FOMO, kind of similar to what we saw in the spring of 2021. In addition to this, I'm starting to see youtube channels coming out with ridiculous content, like BTC hitting 300k or Cardano hitting a 1 trillion dollar market cap in 2025.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold and @jaygreenb

Stuff like this is honestly why I believe we will still see market cycles. Basically, smart retail investors, such as those posting on here, and big money institutions, etc. having been steadily loading up when the market was boring or even scary. Meanwhile, retail noobs will enter into the space over the coming months and basically send many coins well past what they should be valued at. These people will especially yolo into alts at just about the worst time, only to be dumped on their heads.

 

[Solomon]

@Solomon @jaygreenb @SW15 @Fortune_favors_the_bold

BTC dominance is around 60% right now and it will most likely be the center of most of the action through the rest of the year 2024 and maybe a couple months into 2025. Alts will more or less go along for the ride through this time period, but really not do much relative to BTC. However, I think the true alt season will definitely kick off sometime next year, maybe February or March. Basically, we'll see BTC make a huge move and then watch dominance collapse as alts take off.

What we've seen lately is playing out eerily similar to what we've seen in previous cycles, and it's very likely that 2025 will continue this pattern.

@jaygreenb will especially like this lol.

There's a guy I know that's been in crypto as long as I have but drastically behind where I'm at lol. Last cycle he was obsessed with Bcash and kept saying it was going to hit 10k. However, it lagged into 2021 and he then swapped over into shiba and was vocal about it hitting $1/coin. I distinctly recall this moment because I had no idea what the market cap of the project was and after seeing that number he threw out I just laughed lol.

However, this time around he is obsessed with XRP. Today he was telling me that it's going to at least hit $10 and possibly even $30 lol. The best part is that he said he'd never sell, so even if these numbers did happen, which they won't, he'd basically hold those bags and round trip them lol.

The point I'm getting at with this story is that retail noobs and FOMO are starting to make their way to space, though it's still pretty early. I think once BTC makes a strong move past 100k or even blows past this it will spark massive amounts of retail FOMO, kind of similar to what we saw in the spring of 2021. In addition to this, I'm starting to see youtube channels coming out with ridiculous content, like BTC hitting 300k or Cardano hitting a 1 trillion dollar market cap in 2025.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold and @jaygreenb

Stuff like this is honestly why I believe we will still see market cycles. Basically, smart retail investors, such as those posting on here, and big money institutions, etc. having been steadily loading up when the market was boring or even scary. Meanwhile, retail noobs will enter into the space over the coming months and basically send many coins well past what they should be valued at. These people will especially yolo into alts at just about the worst time, only to be dumped on their heads.

Call me paranoid or still dealing with PTSD from the bear market but looking at it from a TA point, none of this makes sense. In other words I wouldn't be shocked if we hit 100-125K and then this get's rugged into oblivion. Once again I don't have anything to support this just the way it's been pumping I highly recommend people to be cautious and take profits where you can

 

[sangheilios]

Call me paranoid or still dealing with PTSD from the bear market but looking at it from a TA point, none of this makes sense. In other words I wouldn't be shocked if we hit 100-125K and then this get's rugged into oblivion. Once again I don't have anything to support this just the way it's been pumping I highly recommend people to be cautious and take profits where you can

Retail FOMO hasn't even entered into the space yet, rate cuts are going to continue through 2025, ETF demand is showing no signs of slowing down AND Washington will soon be pro crypto within a couple months. All of the signs for a strong market into 2025. Not saying there won't be pullbacks, but alts still really haven't done much this year and BTC spent MONTHS trading at 60k+. Huge variable is that the U.S government is going to keep the BTC it currently holds AND there is a plan to accumulate more over the coming years.

Just be patient, give it another 3-6 months.

 

[Divorced w 3]

, none of this makes sense.

Yes it does - simple actually - all time highs being broken, especially ones that held for a long time, are pretty much the most bullish position for a trader to be in.
-Long term holders have cleared out
-All that’s left is natural buyers
-Shorts are being blown up and forced to cover

Some of the coin press was illustrating the massive leverage that was sitting at 90, which is why it flew up so hard and fast this morning.

I’m keeping my eyes on the recent price action, I am long at 75,200, on the BITU etf (35.25) absolutely amazing to be a part of.

I am also looking at 100-125, tbd

 

[sangheilios]

Yes it does - simple actually - all time highs being broken, especially ones that held for a long time, are pretty much the most bullish position for a trader to be in.
-Long term holders have cleared out
-All that’s left is natural buyers
-Shorts are being blown up and forced to cover

Some of the coin press was illustrating the massive leverage that was sitting at 90, which is why it flew up so hard and fast this morning.

I’m keeping my eyes on the recent price action, I am long at 75,200, on the BITU etf (35.25) absolutely amazing to be a part of.

I am also looking at 100-125, tbd

Up until the ETFs launching earlier this year, a huge amount of BTC was being long term held by wallets with 1+ BTC. I feel like at this point people that built positions prior to 2024 are more or less planning on just continuing to hold the asset. There will be shorter term traders and people that buy high and sell low, but factoring out companies like Blackrock and these people are only holding tiny amounts of the total BTC supply.

Think about it this way. With the ETFs launching and now a pro crypto government coming to office, which has plans to buy and hold BTC, why would anyone who owns this asset plan on selling when it's literally in the early stages of going public. Long term there's really no telling how high this asset could go, maybe it will match gold in market cap or possibly even surpass it, which would be roughly a 10x from here btw.

I've discussed this on here and with @jaygreenb but I believe a lot of the sell side pressure we had recently this fall was related to fear and uncertainty around the election. Basically, if Kamala had won it would have resulted in a huge sell off. However, when it became obvious that Trump was killing it that night the markets started raging hard. Kind of played out how I figured, but there was always that possibility of an upset with her winning instead.

I've for a while said that BTC would maybe 2x from it's previous highs of 2021, so somewhere around 120-150k or so, into this coming bull market of 2025. I get the feeling we are already seeing people over speculate on the potential price action, basically leading to a sentiment in the market that will lead to prices becoming overinflated. Either way, I have 0 intention of selling any of my BTC but plan on taking profits with my alt positions I created with this accumulation phase.

 

[jaygreenb]

Exactly. Vast majority of those people that had BTC from those early days basically bought and sold instead of long term holding. It had such a small market cap back then that it would have been more comparable to the **** coins you see that aren't even in the top 30.

I really don't think this market became all that legitimate or mainstream until the 2017 bull run, though I'd say the 2021 bull run was what solidified this.

In my opinion 2017/18 is what solidified that Bitcoin was going to be of importance and "won", for those that recognized the following the risk was significantly reduced to make a large allocation:
-It reached a 100B market cap, which is the network tipping point of market penetration that means it likely won't be stopped
-It recovered from the catastrophic incident of Mt Gox
-It was battle tested and won the chain wars with BSV and Bcash

Another incidence of significance was in 2021 when China banned mining and I believe almost 50% went offline. Besides a short term price drop and hash rate tanking, the network did not skip a beat. The network responded, adapted and became more robust. Mining even eventually became more decentralized as miners moved to other jurisdictions and hash rate fully recovered. It proved the network was extremely resilient and the incentives of the protocol worked to handle any stressor. It is really amazing if you think about it.

Like you stated, it would take a significant price move this cycle to even consider taking some off the table, I am talking 180k to dabble, 200k plus to start taking some more, 250k+ a meaningful percentage. Anything below that, too much opportunity cost of missing upside in my opinion. I'll just be patient.

 

[Divorced w 3]

[/QUOTE]

In my opinion 2017/18 is what solidified that Bitcoin was going to be of importance and "won", for those that recognized the following the risk was significantly reduced to make a large allocation:
-It reached a 100B market cap, which is the network tipping point of market penetration that means it likely won't be stopped
-It recovered from the catastrophic incident of Mt Gox
-It was battle tested and won the chain wars with BSV and Bcash

Another incidence of significance was in 2021 when China banned mining and I believe almost 50% went offline. Besides a short term price drop and hash rate tanking, the network did not skip a beat. The network responded, adapted and became more robust. Mining even eventually became more decentralized as miners moved to other jurisdictions and hash rate fully recovered. It proved the network was extremely resilient and the incentives of the protocol worked to handle any stressor. It is really amazing if you think about it.

Like you stated, it would take a significant price move this cycle to even consider taking some off the table, I am talking 180k to dabble, 200k plus to start taking some more, 250k+ a meaningful percentage. Anything below that, too much opportunity cost of missing upside in my opinion. I'll just be patient.

I guess the fundamental case is that there is limited supply and that there is a massive amount of cryptology that is nearly impossible to break; my ignorant response to this is, wait until quantum computing gets its hand on it

 

[sangheilios]

In my opinion 2017/18 is what solidified that Bitcoin was going to be of importance and "won", for those that recognized the following the risk was significantly reduced to make a large allocation:
-It reached a 100B market cap, which is the network tipping point of market penetration that means it likely won't be stopped
-It recovered from the catastrophic incident of Mt Gox
-It was battle tested and won the chain wars with BSV and Bcash

Another incidence of significance was in 2021 when China banned mining and I believe almost 50% went offline. Besides a short term price drop and hash rate tanking, the network did not skip a beat. The network responded, adapted and became more robust. Mining even eventually became more decentralized as miners moved to other jurisdictions and hash rate fully recovered. It proved the network was extremely resilient and the incentives of the protocol worked to handle any stressor. It is really amazing if you think about it.

Like you stated, it would take a significant price move this cycle to even consider taking some off the table, I am talking 180k to dabble, 200k plus to start taking some more, 250k+ a meaningful percentage. Anything below that, too much opportunity cost of missing upside in my opinion. I'll just be patient.

That's a really good point about Mt. Gox AND the chain wars from way back in the day, I totally forgot about the latter lol. Those holding BTC got Bcash and later on those holding Bcash got BSV, both of which are garbage but the latter is significantly worse lol, at least Bcash is still in the top 20. I actually made a good amount of money on bcash into 2021, but would have just been better off buying BTC itself or ETH.

Really good point about the banning of mining in China.

The last cycle had a lot of crazy catalysts in 2022 that made 2018 look very tame. The Terra Luna crash in April of that year was insane and ultimately what started the death spiral. Then it was the 3 arrows capital and shortly after that the crypto lending space fell apart, I recently saw that the CEO of Celsius is getting life in prison supposedly lol. The finale with the cherry on top was the collapse of FTX, unlike the other events this actually got an insane amount of attention with the mainstream media. I remember shortly after the fall of FTX I was having a conversation with my mother and she asked "You aren't still invested into crypto are you?!?!?" lol.

The collapse of FTX was just about 2 years ago, November of 2022, and look at where we are now and what is to come.

Again, I have 0 intention of selling any BTC at this point but will swing trade my alt positions. IF they underperform compared to my expectations, I'll plan on just selling into cash. IF they meet or even exceed my expectations, I am planning on selling into cash AND converting some into BTC if the pairing is looking juicy.

 

[jaygreenb]

I guess the fundamental case is that there is limited supply and that there is a massive amount of cryptology that is nearly impossible to break; my ignorant response to this is, wait until quantum computing gets its hand on it

Its a decentralized rules based set supply monetary network that everyone has an equal opportunity(no presale or premine) to participate in. It is also the most secure network every created with no company, person or group controlling the properties. I am not really concerned about the Quantum computer boogieman, these videos below go into more detail

 

[jaygreenb]

That's a really good point about Mt. Gox AND the chain wars from way back in the day, I totally forgot about the latter lol. Those holding BTC got Bcash and later on those holding Bcash got BSV, both of which are garbage but the latter is significantly worse lol, at least Bcash is still in the top 20. I actually made a good amount of money on bcash into 2021, but would have just been better off buying BTC itself or ETH.

Really good point about the banning of mining in China.

The last cycle had a lot of crazy catalysts in 2022 that made 2018 look very tame. The Terra Luna crash in April of that year was insane and ultimately what started the death spiral. Then it was the 3 arrows capital and shortly after that the crypto lending space fell apart, I recently saw that the CEO of Celsius is getting life in prison supposedly lol. The finale with the cherry on top was the collapse of FTX, unlike the other events this actually got an insane amount of attention with the mainstream media. I remember shortly after the fall of FTX I was having a conversation with my mother and she asked "You aren't still invested into crypto are you?!?!?" lol.

The collapse of FTX was just about 2 years ago, November of 2022, and look at where we are now and what is to come.

Again, I have 0 intention of selling any BTC at this point but will swing trade my alt positions. IF they underperform compared to my expectations, I'll plan on just selling into cash. IF they meet or even exceed my expectations, I am planning on selling into cash AND converting some into BTC if the pairing is looking juicy.

I really hope Alex from Celsius goes to jail, I'll need to look for that. They tried to shake me down for 180k on the clawbacks. One of my blunders from last cycle. I had funds on there but when everything started going sideways I pulled everything off, a month later they went BK. A year later I was notified I was about to be sued because they wanted to clawback MY money I had on there. The nerve! haha They offered me a settlement, which many people took. I told them to F themselves and got a lawyer, I ended up getting my lawsuit dropped and didn't give them a cent. Costly lesson though.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Its a decentralized rules based set supply monetary network that everyone has an equal opportunity(no presale or premine) to participate in. It is also the most secure network every created with no company, person or group controlling the properties. I am not really concerned about the Quantum computer boogieman, these videos below go into more detail

Saylor took a fledgling company and says he is investing corporate cash but he’s not paying down the debt he’s issuing to buy bitcoin so he is running a the world’s largest, leveraged bitcoin hedge fund. In other words he has to say that.

I have no opinion on this for now. I sold today 89,000 making about 14,000 points in about a week, I’ll get back in when it’s a little cleaner.

 

[sangheilios]

Saylor took a fledgling company and says he is investing corporate cash but he’s not paying down the debt he’s issuing to buy bitcoin so he is running a the world’s largest, leveraged bitcoin hedge fund. In other words he has to say that.

I have no opinion on this for now. I sold today 89,000 making about 14,000 points in about a week, I’ll get back in when it’s a little cleaner.

Honestly, man, if your goal is to swing trade for profit you could way more easily do this right now by buying ETH or any top alts. They are still insanely low in regards to their BTC pairs.

ETH to BTC: Ethereum Price in Bitcoin | CoinGecko

I'm thinking from here it is incredibly unlikely for BTC to see a 2x, but these alts can still provide huge profits at this point. BTC dominance is at 60%, so we are not even remotely close to alt season and peak euphoria. Not sure what your specific goals are, but alts could easily provide 2x+ gains if you buy now and willing to wait for up to maybe 12 months, if even that.

Best time would have to load up on alts before the election, which is what I did, but right now is still a decent to buy in if you haven't already done so or looking to expand upon your positions.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Honestly, man, if your goal is to swing trade for profit you could way more easily do this right now by buying ETH or any top alts. They are still insanely low in regards to their BTC pairs.

ETH to BTC: Ethereum Price in Bitcoin | CoinGecko

I'm thinking from here it is incredibly unlikely for BTC to see a 2x, but these alts can still provide huge profits at this point. BTC dominance is at 60%, so we are not even remotely close to alt season and peak euphoria. Not sure what your specific goals are, but alts could easily provide 2x+ gains if you buy now and willing to wait for up to maybe 12 months, if even that.

Best time would have to load up on alts before the election, which is what I did, but right now is still a decent to buy in if you haven't already done so or looking to expand upon your positions.

appreciate it, but plenty of money to be made buying the biggest and most liquid that is out there - one bad day for a runner up and you can get wiped out - harder for that to happen in leadership whatever they may be. Made about $40,000 in a week just trading SPX on Election Day (4 hour hold - 26k) and the other $15,000 running the BITU trade. Good setups on leadership are worth waiting for.

 

[jaygreenb]

Saylor took a fledgling company and says he is investing corporate cash but he’s not paying down the debt he’s issuing to buy bitcoin so he is running a the world’s largest, leveraged bitcoin hedge fund. In other words he has to say that.

I have no opinion on this for now. I sold today 89,000 making about 14,000 points in about a week, I’ll get back in when it’s a little cleaner.

That doesn't disqualify the video and his statements that I assume you didn't even watch, lazy response. He also wouldn't be making a such a large play if he thought it was a legitimate risk, just like every other major player who has done their due diligence. People with skin in the game are the ones who are going to be the most informed.

 

[Divorced w 3]

That doesn't disqualify the video and his statements that I assume you didn't even watch, lazy response. He also wouldn't be making a such a large play if he thought it was a legitimate risk, just like every other major player who has done their due diligence. People with skin in the game are the ones who are going to be the most informed.

Sometimes in my business being too informed is not a good thing. Understand and have a thesis yes, it’s not my job though to ignore what’s in front of me to position for a longer term, fundamentally driven belief. I don’t risk capital that way. I like to believe what’s happening in front of me and if my thesis proves itself I commit to it until I see it go the other way.