Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[Solomon]

Been loading up on XRP, the SEC last day to appeal is October 7th, which I highly doubt that it will but I think October will be a great month
Shiba Inu charts looking juicy too, It should be a great month for the markets

October 2024 Study: Will it be a Bullish “Uptober” or Bearish “Rektober”?

Will October 2024 bring a bullish "Uptober" or bearish "Rektober"? Explore key trends and predictions for the crypto market.

nftevening.com

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[Bible_Belt]

Her legal team was unfortunately unable to plead the "I'm too pretty for jail" defense.

Caroline Ellison, former FTX exec and Sam Bankman-Fried's ex-girlfriend, sentenced to 2 years in prison

Ellison accepted a plea deal on charges of conspiracy and financial fraud in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[jaygreenb]

Her legal team was unfortunately unable to plead the "I'm too pretty for jail" defense.

Caroline Ellison, former FTX exec and Sam Bankman-Fried's ex-girlfriend, sentenced to 2 years in prison

Ellison accepted a plea deal on charges of conspiracy and financial fraud in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy.

www.nbcnews.com

She still got off pretty easy all things considered but at at least didn't get to completely walk

 

[RSDCharlie]

The main problem with bitcoins is, unlike stocks, they have no fundamentals. You can't rely on them for long term investment. However if you're really good in charts, you can trade bitcoin for short term

 

[jaygreenb]

The main problem with bitcoins is, unlike stocks, they have no fundamentals. You can't rely on them for long term investment. However if you're really good in charts, you can trade bitcoin for short term

No lol

 

[FlirtLife]

Her legal team was unfortunately unable to plead the "I'm too pretty for jail" defense.

Caroline Ellison, former FTX exec and Sam Bankman-Fried's ex-girlfriend, sentenced to 2 years in prison

Ellison accepted a plea deal on charges of conspiracy and financial fraud in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy.

www.nbcnews.com

You can start your own "shame ugly women" thread if you like, but that insult has little to do with crypto.

FTX had complex and poorly documented financials. Fraud cases often need an insider to explain what really happened, exposing holes in the fake story and revealing the real one. She was the CEO of Alameda Research, a hedge fund that hid FTX's losses. Where Bankman got 25 years in prison, and another executive 17 years in prison, she received 2 years owing to the importance of her testimony.

For those who had crypto at FTX, you probably have a long wait. Although the FBI will brag about getting people their money back, they will be using values from the "crypto winter" of 2022. So probably a low value, and a long time waiting, before people get their money back.

 

[Solomon]

Looks like we going to 73K for now...$Shib doing well woohoo

 

[BackInTheGame78]

ATH incoming...very strong tweezer bottom and lots of bottoming tails prior on the monthly chart...

Could see a push past 80K within a week or 10 days, maybe less.

 

[jaygreenb]

ATH incoming...very strong tweezer bottom and lots of bottoming tails prior on the monthly chart...

Could see a push past 80K within a week or 10 days, maybe less.

uncanny how the 4yr cycles keep moving the same way

 

[sangheilios]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon

I remember the over hype/euphoria around February-March of this year with all of the ETF stuff, even I was experiencing some FOMO back then. There was all this talk about there being a left translated cycle, which quickly became invalidated. We basically were WAY ahead of schedule and in need of cooling off, we've basically been consolidating for about 7 months now. You can see with each time when the FED maintained it's position with each meeting that there was sell off in the market, starting in April. You basically had all of these people betting on their being rate cuts and with each month having this postponed it made the speculators fearful.

I believe that the bottom of this mini cycle was what we saw in early August, when BTC briefly tanked below 50k and ETH below 2k. BTC dominance is continuing to climb, but I think the BTC pairs with alts have more or less bottomed out. More recently, every little pump we've been getting you can see all these youtube crypto shills talking about it being the big move lol, only for it to retrace a massive 5% back down to where it started. I think a lot of this is heavily based on the election cycle we are in right now, which naturally is tied to feelings of uncertainty in regards to macroeconomics, politics, etc. The FED is most definitely going to continue with rate cuts and quantitative easing through this and next year, basically for the foreseeable future until things become too heated again.

I think things may stay somewhat boring through the rest of the month leading up until the election and maybe start heating up as we approach the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. I believe we will see BTC lead the way for most of this, with alts kind of lagging a bit behind but otherwise trending in this direction. However, I think as we get into 2025 we will start to see a shift in the alts where they outperform BTC. In the grand scheme of things, we are insanely close to the next big run.

Things have been so boring for so long that the speculators, gamblers and retail noobs are mostly absent from this space. However, once things really start moving it's going to be crazy as hell. Looking back on it, I wasn't really all that prepared for 2021 and didn't know what to do, this time around I feel I have a much better plan and overall outlook. It's going to happen very quickly and many people are going to be buying in at the worst possible time, only to be dumped on their heads. I'm expecting the next bear market low to be right around where we've been ranging lately, so 50-60k or so.

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon

I remember the over hype/euphoria around February-March of this year with all of the ETF stuff, even I was experiencing some FOMO back then. There was all this talk about there being a left translated cycle, which quickly became invalidated. We basically were WAY ahead of schedule and in need of cooling off, we've basically been consolidating for about 7 months now. You can see with each time when the FED maintained it's position with each meeting that there was sell off in the market, starting in April. You basically had all of these people betting on their being rate cuts and with each month having this postponed it made the speculators fearful.

I believe that the bottom of this mini cycle was what we saw in early August, when BTC briefly tanked below 50k and ETH below 2k. BTC dominance is continuing to climb, but I think the BTC pairs with alts have more or less bottomed out. More recently, every little pump we've been getting you can see all these youtube crypto shills talking about it being the big move lol, only for it to retrace a massive 5% back down to where it started. I think a lot of this is heavily based on the election cycle we are in right now, which naturally is tied to feelings of uncertainty in regards to macroeconomics, politics, etc. The FED is most definitely going to continue with rate cuts and quantitative easing through this and next year, basically for the foreseeable future until things become too heated again.

I think things may stay somewhat boring through the rest of the month leading up until the election and maybe start heating up as we approach the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. I believe we will see BTC lead the way for most of this, with alts kind of lagging a bit behind but otherwise trending in this direction. However, I think as we get into 2025 we will start to see a shift in the alts where they outperform BTC. In the grand scheme of things, we are insanely close to the next big run.

Things have been so boring for so long that the speculators, gamblers and retail noobs are mostly absent from this space. However, once things really start moving it's going to be crazy as hell. Looking back on it, I wasn't really all that prepared for 2021 and didn't know what to do, this time around I feel I have a much better plan and overall outlook. It's going to happen very quickly and many people are going to be buying in at the worst possible time, only to be dumped on their heads. I'm expecting the next bear market low to be right around where we've been ranging lately, so 50-60k or so.

Agree, good rule of thumb, whatever your emotions are telling you to do, strongly consider doing the opposite. Honestly, can not think of a time that was not the right move since I have been in this space.

It will be interesting to see how things play out with alts. The new theory, mostly pushed by Murad, is that people are so sick of failed/broken promises and getting dumped on by VC's retail has moved to the highest level of scams, meme coins. In a way they are actually a lot more honest, because they are what they are and are not making any false promises of changing the world that do not actually produce anything. Ultimately, nobody really cares about "alt" coin tech, they want to catch a 1000x and get rich. Besides the price action and trading a price pump I can not think of one alt that has really done anything economically productive besides some niche transactions, certainly none at any real world sort of scale. There are been thousands and many been around for 10yrs+ and besides bitcoin no alts are really doing anything relevant. That being said, I am sure there will be new narratives and insane price action that will ultimately end in new entrants getting absolutely wrecked lol

 

[sangheilios]

Agree, good rule of thumb, whatever your emotions are telling you to do, strongly consider doing the opposite. Honestly, can not think of a time that was not the right move since I have been in this space.

It will be interesting to see how things play out with alts. The new theory, mostly pushed by Murad, is that people are so sick of failed/broken promises and getting dumped on by VC's retail has moved to the highest level of scams, meme coins. In a way they are actually a lot more honest, because they are what they are and are not making any false promises of changing the world that do not actually produce anything. Ultimately, nobody really cares about "alt" coin tech, they want to catch a 1000x and get rich. Besides the price action and trading a price pump I can not think of one alt that has really done anything economically productive besides some niche transactions, certainly none at any real world sort of scale. There are been thousands and many been around for 10yrs+ and besides bitcoin no alts are really doing anything relevant. That being said, I am sure there will be new narratives and insane price action that will ultimately end in new entrants getting absolutely wrecked lol

I definitely agree with your comments about alts. You can look at coinmarket cap and there are some interesting trends you will find, which is that there are only a handful of alts that are still somewhat relevant. ETH is an obvious one, the other big ones would be XRP, Cardano and BNB. I'd also even say that LTC is somewhat relevant, it's basically still lingering around and more or less held it's value in terms of USD.

However, the rest of these alts more or less come and go in one or two cycles. Everyone is talking about Solana, but it honestly reminds me of Terra Luna, which got a ton of hype way back in 2021 only to completely fall off a cliff lol. Another one from last cycle that was very big was Matic/Polygon, which now isn't even in the top 30. Toncoin has been getting a lot of attention, but several months ago I learned that the overwhelming majority of supply was held by just a handful of wallets, talking like a few dozen controlling well north of 90%.

I am of the belief that BTC is the only thing worth holding for the long term. With this said, I also believe that there is money to be made in the alts but you need to be careful with how you go about it. Alts basically do nothing but bleed compared to BTC for 3 years and then have one huge alt run, only to tank again. The strategy should be to buy alts when they are dirt cheap and then hold into the bull run before selling them. I'd also add that you should just stick to alts that have been relevant for a long time, such as those I mentioned. Just about every single coin will pump during the bull market, no reason to overcomplicate it.

As for ETH specifically, I think that's gains relative to BTC are slowly diminishing and that we will eventually see it more or less find a range it maintains at, referring to it's pairing/ratio to BTC. Last cycle it bottomed out a tad under .02-BTC and peaked around .085 to BTC. This cycle it seems like it's bottme around .038 or so but I speculate at BEST it can reach it's previous high of .085, so a slightly over 2x compared to BTC. We might eventually get to a point where trying to trade it off of it's BTC pair is just not worth it.

 

[jaygreenb]

I definitely agree with your comments about alts. You can look at coinmarket cap and there are some interesting trends you will find, which is that there are only a handful of alts that are still somewhat relevant. ETH is an obvious one, the other big ones would be XRP, Cardano and BNB. I'd also even say that LTC is somewhat relevant, it's basically still lingering around and more or less held it's value in terms of USD.

However, the rest of these alts more or less come and go in one or two cycles. Everyone is talking about Solana, but it honestly reminds me of Terra Luna, which got a ton of hype way back in 2021 only to completely fall off a cliff lol. Another one from last cycle that was very big was Matic/Polygon, which now isn't even in the top 30. Toncoin has been getting a lot of attention, but several months ago I learned that the overwhelming majority of supply was held by just a handful of wallets, talking like a few dozen controlling well north of 90%.

I am of the belief that BTC is the only thing worth holding for the long term. With this said, I also believe that there is money to be made in the alts but you need to be careful with how you go about it. Alts basically do nothing but bleed compared to BTC for 3 years and then have one huge alt run, only to tank again. The strategy should be to buy alts when they are dirt cheap and then hold into the bull run before selling them. I'd also add that you should just stick to alts that have been relevant for a long time, such as those I mentioned. Just about every single coin will pump during the bull market, no reason to overcomplicate it.

As for ETH specifically, I think that's gains relative to BTC are slowly diminishing and that we will eventually see it more or less find a range it maintains at, referring to it's pairing/ratio to BTC. Last cycle it bottomed out a tad under .02-BTC and peaked around .085 to BTC. This cycle it seems like it's bottme around .038 or so but I speculate at BEST it can reach it's previous high of .085, so a slightly over 2x compared to BTC. We might eventually get to a point where trying to trade it off of it's BTC pair is just not worth it.

Funny enough, I had around $500 worth of BNB from 2017 that I got for around $5, think I bought it because there was reduced fees trading and just let it sit for a few years. Thats one I got a 100x and was able to take half off the table last bull run, wish I had bought more lol You can definitely make money with alts if played correctly. I've had some really big wins along with losses, my issue is actually realizing those gains and selling when I should. The net of all my alts though, would of been better off just going btc. Not to mention the time commitment trying to play that game. I have a bunch of older alts I am just waiting to dump on a pump. BNB, ADA, link, dot, sushi, chili. Agree with your sentiments on ETH, I have a pretty considerable amount that I bought between 2017-2020, I want to dump it all this cycle, will most likely start selling chunks at .055ish, have a feeling it will make a lower high this time and not hit .08 again. It is very tempting to buy a few meme coins and hope for a lottery ticket though

 

[sangheilios]

Funny enough, I had around $500 worth of BNB from 2017 that I got for around $5, think I bought it because there was reduced fees trading and just let it sit for a few years. Thats one I got a 100x and was able to take half off the table last bull run, wish I had bought more lol You can definitely make money with alts if played correctly. I've had some really big wins along with losses, my issue is actually realizing those gains and selling when I should. The net of all my alts though, would of been better off just going btc. Not to mention the time commitment trying to play that game. I have a bunch of older alts I am just waiting to dump on a pump. BNB, ADA, link, dot, sushi, chili. Agree with your sentiments on ETH, I have a pretty considerable amount that I bought between 2017-2020, I want to dump it all this cycle, will most likely start selling chunks at .055ish, have a feeling it will make a lower high this time and not hit .08 again. It is very tempting to buy a few meme coins and hope for a lottery ticket though

That's exactly what I was getting at with my comment with ETH, where it's going to create a lower high with it's BTC pair compared to the previous 2 bull runs, 2018 it was almost .14 and last cycle it was .085. I don't think ETH is necessarily a bad project, in fact I believe that it will continue to be a major player in the space. I just see this as a sign that the asset has matured and because of this it will have much lower volatility to the up and downside. With this out of the way, I think if you are looking to invest into something that will have greater returns compared to BTC you are better off buying a lower cap alt, at least if this is your reasoning. ETH is basically the lowest risk of the alts you can load up on, but it's days of massive gains are well behind us. I think at BEST ETH can maybe hit 12k this cycle, realistically thinking somewhere around 9-10k.

One thing I believe we will see in the coming cycles is that the asset class will have more blue chips, right now it's basically just BTC and ETH. Now what these will be I can't say, there is so much that can change by say 2028 or 2032. A lot of the top alts right now have market caps in the low 10 billion dollar range and could potentially still be relevant for the next few cycles. The two that immediately come to mind are XRP and ADA. ADA has gone through 2 bull markets, 2017 and 2021, AND still survived and remained relevant through the bear markets of 2018 and 2022 respectively. In addition to this, ADA hit a new all time high in 2021 of $3, it's high was $1 in the bull peak prior. This is a phenomenal track record in this space and the only other alt to have done this was ETH. I'm not saying that ADA is going to hit a new all time high, but going for alts like this is not a bad idea at all. Meanwhile, most alts might do well for one cycle and basically fade off into oblivion and never remotely come close to reaching their previous highs, let alone make new ones. Bcash is one that comes to mind.

 

[Bible_Belt]

FBI Arrests Man Who Searched 'How Can I Know for Sure If I Am Being Investigated by the FBI'

Eric Counsel Jr. is accused of helping to hack the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's X account in order to post false information about Bitcoin.

gizmodo.com

 

[HaleyBaron]

FBI Arrests Man Who Searched 'How Can I Know for Sure If I Am Being Investigated by the FBI'

Eric Counsel Jr. is accused of helping to hack the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's X account in order to post false information about Bitcoin.

gizmodo.com

The January 9 hack spiked the value of Bitcoin for a short time before SEC Chairman (((Gary Gensler))) posted from his own account that the information was false, after which the price of Bitcoin dropped by $2,000.

They really do own everything.

 

[AAAgent]

Agree, good rule of thumb, whatever your emotions are telling you to do, strongly consider doing the opposite. Honestly, can not think of a time that was not the right move since I have been in this space.

Definitely agree with this. If you can also separate emotion from intuition, you should do the opposite of your emotions and do what your intuition is guiding you towards.

Like I know for instance, if i have $30k to blow/spare, taking it to the consider with a low% chance of doubling and a high % chance of losing it all is a bad thing. Intuition also tells me if I buy gold/silver or bitcoin with it and HODL, I have a high chance of it appreciating in value in the coming months to years. Better to act on your intuition, than to ignore it and best to curb your emotional reactions.

 

[jaygreenb]

Definitely agree with this. If you can also separate emotion from intuition, you should do the opposite of your emotions and do what your intuition is guiding you towards.

Like I know for instance, if i have $30k to blow/spare, taking it to the consider with a low% chance of doubling and a high % chance of losing it all is a bad thing. Intuition also tells me if I buy gold/silver or bitcoin with it and HODL, I have a high chance of it appreciating in value in the coming months to years. Better to act on your intuition, than to ignore it and best to curb your emotional reactions.

Yep, agree, takes some experience usually to separate the two. Would add to that it also takes patience and resolve, especially if you are trying to catch a trend or cycle in its entirety. My biggest wins always took a lot longer to develop than I had originally anticipated but being early also allowed my to achieve much great gains by not missing the initial move/gains that starts to get attention. Besides BTC I had this happen to me with gold/silver. I made a significant allocation during the covid crash(gold 1500-1600, silver 12-18) since I anticipated there would be massive stimulus in order to do the lockdowns that the rest of the world had started doing. This line of thinking was correct but I did not anticipate there would be a couple years between that initial pump up to the move we are starting to see now.

 

[sangheilios]

Yep, agree, takes some experience usually to separate the two. Would add to that it also takes patience and resolve, especially if you are trying to catch a trend or cycle in its entirety. My biggest wins always took a lot longer to develop than I had originally anticipated but being early also allowed my to achieve much great gains by not missing the initial move/gains that starts to get attention. Besides BTC I had this happen to me with gold/silver. I made a significant allocation during the covid crash(gold 1500-1600, silver 12-18) since I anticipated there would be massive stimulus in order to do the lockdowns that the rest of the world had started doing. This line of thinking was correct but I did not anticipate there would be a couple years between that initial pump up to the move we are starting to see now.

This is exactly why most people don't do all that well in regards to investing, this is especially the case with crypto. With crypto, a ton of these retail noobs basically see that the market is running hot and how people are making crazy gains. They buy in at the worst time but with the expectation that they will also make huge gains, only to be dumped on and ultimately capitulate at heavy losses. A better case scenario would be they actually buy in at a pretty decent time to accumulate but end up selling at a small loss OR when things have been boring for a while. Back in the fall of 2018 I remember having a conversation with a guy I knew about investing and he showed me his Robinhood account. He had actually bought .1 BTC at an average price around 7k sometime that summer and had sold that when it tanked to 5k. If he had just held that through the rest of the year and into 2019 he more or less would have been totally fine, basically just a 6 month window where he would have been down by any real amount.

Basically, the idea should be that the money you are investing you should be willing to let it sit there for more than one year. Sure, we can get into speculative shorter term plays with the alts, but when it comes to things like BTC or the more mainstream stuff you have to zoom out. BTC right now I think can hit a 2x or slightly higher in this given cycle, I'd be very surprised to see that go much above 150k. However, if you are buying BTC with the intention of potentially letting it sit into the 2030s you could see some phenomenal growth from that.

 

[jaygreenb]

This is exactly why most people don't do all that well in regards to investing, this is especially the case with crypto. With crypto, a ton of these retail noobs basically see that the market is running hot and how people are making crazy gains. They buy in at the worst time but with the expectation that they will also make huge gains, only to be dumped on and ultimately capitulate at heavy losses. A better case scenario would be they actually buy in at a pretty decent time to accumulate but end up selling at a small loss OR when things have been boring for a while. Back in the fall of 2018 I remember having a conversation with a guy I knew about investing and he showed me his Robinhood account. He had actually bought .1 BTC at an average price around 7k sometime that summer and had sold that when it tanked to 5k. If he had just held that through the rest of the year and into 2019 he more or less would have been totally fine, basically just a 6 month window where he would have been down by any real amount.

Basically, the idea should be that the money you are investing you should be willing to let it sit there for more than one year. Sure, we can get into speculative shorter term plays with the alts, but when it comes to things like BTC or the more mainstream stuff you have to zoom out. BTC right now I think can hit a 2x or slightly higher in this given cycle, I'd be very surprised to see that go much above 150k. However, if you are buying BTC with the intention of potentially letting it sit into the 2030s you could see some phenomenal growth from that.

oh yeah, crypto elicits typical market emotions on steroids lol Then throw in the fact many participants have minimal life and investing experience, it is the perfect ****tail to get wrecked. I know a lot of stories of people getting washed out in 18/19, can't imagine the type of regret they are living with now.

Personally, I try to keep things simple and stick to assets I am comfortable holding a minimum of 5-10yrs and that I have a high level of understanding and conviction in. I think a big part of people capitulating is they don't actually understand what it is and why they hold it outside of the price action. You aren't going to get rich overnight with bitcoin but reality is 99% of people are going to fail and get wrecked chasing those 1000x in a few months returns. Crypto has completely deluded people on the likelihood of making and keeping those gains when in reality if you could do 10%+ historically you were doing really well. I would be thrilled doing 20%+ low risk compounded yearly return with bitcoin over the next decade, and I think that is pretty reasonable and conservative. Most people would do incredible if they could just be patient and consistent over the next 10yrs. This is that CAGR starting from every year.


For easier calculations end up 2024 at around the 75.000$ mark. So here are the average yearly returns since:

Since 2010 to end of 2024 is 211% annually.

Since 2011 to end of 2024 is 143% annually.

Since 2012 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.

Since 2013 to end of 2024 is 105% annually.

Since 2014 to end of 2024 is 52% annually.

Since 2015 to end of 2024 is 72,5% annually.

Since 2016 to end of 2024 is 77% annually.

Since 2017 to end of 2024 is 72% annually.

Since 2018 to end of 2024 is 27% annually.

Since 2019 to end of 2024 is 65% annually.

Since 2020 to end of 2024 is 59% annually.

Since 2021 to end of 2024 is 26% annually.

Since 2022 to end of 2024 is 15% annually.

Since 2023 to end of 2024 is 110% annually.