Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[sangheilios]

I'm focused on alts mainly XRP, ETH, ADA but I think we gonna go up a bit maybe 32K or so then crash hard after the holidays, I could be wrong though

We are in a phase where BTC dominance is increasing whilst alts are stagnating or even decreasing. The time to have bought BTC was the 2nd half of 2022, when it was hovering around 20k and dipped to 16k by the end of that year. There could be a small crash that will be the final scare before the BTC halving this April of 2024. I'd expect the market to start heating up a little as we approach the halving but most of 2024 we will be at prices that are recognizable to us now. I wouldn't expect the alts to do much until Q4 of 2024 and when the Fed starts pivoting, lowers interest rates and increases the money supply. With the election coming up and a potential recession and them maintaining such a tight monetary policy for so long this is definitely in the cards.

 

[jaygreenb]

We are in a phase where BTC dominance is increasing whilst alts are stagnating or even decreasing. The time to have bought BTC was the 2nd half of 2022, when it was hovering around 20k and dipped to 16k by the end of that year. There could be a small crash that will be the final scare before the BTC halving this April of 2024. I'd expect the market to start heating up a little as we approach the halving but most of 2024 we will be at prices that are recognizable to us now. I wouldn't expect the alts to do much until Q4 of 2024 and when the Fed starts pivoting, lowers interest rates and increases the money supply. With the election coming up and a potential recession and them maintaining such a tight monetary policy for so long this is definitely in the cards.

RIght, alts usually don't get moving until BTC breaks previous highs. The issue with alts is most peoples bags from last cycle will not get that wave this coming one. Will be a new group that pump on hype then fade off in obscurity

 

[sangheilios]

RIght, alts usually don't get moving until BTC breaks previous highs. The issue with alts is most peoples bags from last cycle will not get that wave this coming one. Will be a new group that pump on hype then fade off in obscurity

Vast majority of investors would honestly be better off just buying BTC and maybe ETH. There are a few alts that have been through a couple market cycles that are still relevant in the space, XRP and ADA are two of them. Here is the trick with alts, just about anything will pump in a crypto bull market and it's easy to 10x+ your money. However, there is no reason to hold longer term and you should sell into the bull before the market crashes.

Here's a good example from last cycle- You could have bought ADA at under 10 cents from late 2018 through most of 2020, only to see it pump to a little over $3 fall of 2021. Let's say you had invested 5k at a price average of 5 cents, so 100,000 ADA. Your investment in 2021 would have grown to $300,000. Now, if you decided to hold it through the bear market your ADA is now worth approximately $25000.

Now, let's compare this to BTC. Let's say you invested 5k into BTC at an average price of $5,000 from 2018 through 2020, which was very realistic btw, and you have 1 BTC. Your investment would have peaked at around $69,000 in 2021 and at the absolute lowest point it would have been worth around $16,000, and more recently between $25,000-$30,000. You really haven't lost all that much by holding on an asset that will still be relevant for a while. Meanwhile, some alt you made crazy gains on may not only have crashed hard but possibly not even return to those prices again. I'm not saying ADA specifically is a bad alt, just using it as an example.

 

[AAAgent]

Vast majority of investors would honestly be better off just buying BTC and maybe ETH. There are a few alts that have been through a couple market cycles that are still relevant in the space, XRP and ADA are two of them. Here is the trick with alts, just about anything will pump in a crypto bull market and it's easy to 10x+ your money. However, there is no reason to hold longer term and you should sell into the bull before the market crashes.

Here's a good example from last cycle- You could have bought ADA at under 10 cents from late 2018 through most of 2020, only to see it pump to a little over $3 fall of 2021. Let's say you had invested 5k at a price average of 5 cents, so 100,000 ADA. Your investment in 2021 would have grown to $300,000. Now, if you decided to hold it through the bear market your ADA is now worth approximately $25000.

Now, let's compare this to BTC. Let's say you invested 5k into BTC at an average price of $5,000 from 2018 through 2020, which was very realistic btw, and you have 1 BTC. Your investment would have peaked at around $69,000 in 2021 and at the absolute lowest point it would have been worth around $16,000, and more recently between $25,000-$30,000. You really haven't lost all that much by holding on an asset that will still be relevant for a while. Meanwhile, some alt you made crazy gains on may not only have crashed hard but possibly not even return to those prices again. I'm not saying ADA specifically is a bad alt, just using it as an example.

BTC & ETH are the way to go. The safest bets you can choose in crypto. Both have established ecosystems and infrastructures that would be incredibly difficult to beat/threaten.

Alt coins however, are completely different. Each alt is a start-up in and of itself. Unless you're knowledgeable about the sector that start-up is targeting, knowledgeable about the company, and understand the tokenomics, you're likely blindly buying into a pennystock hoping to get rich in the casino.

95% of start-ups and these tokens will fail, even some of the established ones which we've seen some notable ones this cycle.

BTC and ETH gains are already significant enough to crush stock market, real estate, and other traditional market gains. It's unnecessary and stupid risk to jump into the alts unless you're well versed in the space.

---
I understand how difficult it is to have conviction in this market given how foreign and new it is to many. I got bashed so hard on the forum in 2017 trying to share the opportunity and knowledge with others, but gut reaction from majority was blindly screaming scam, bubble, ponzi, etc. Becoming knowledgeable and educating yourself definitely helps on this, but difficulty level in finding the right starting point, and piecing it all together.

 

[sangheilios]

BTC & ETH are the way to go. The safest bets you can choose in crypto. Both have established ecosystems and infrastructures that would be incredibly difficult to beat/threaten.

Alt coins however, are completely different. Each alt is a start-up in and of itself. Unless you're knowledgeable about the sector that start-up is targeting, knowledgeable about the company, and understand the tokenomics, you're likely blindly buying into a pennystock hoping to get rich in the casino.

95% of start-ups and these tokens will fail, even some of the established ones which we've seen some notable ones this cycle.

BTC and ETH gains are already significant enough to crush stock market, real estate, and other traditional market gains. It's unnecessary and stupid risk to jump into the alts unless you're well versed in the space.

---
I understand how difficult it is to have conviction in this market given how foreign and new it is to many. I got bashed so hard on the forum in 2017 trying to share the opportunity and knowledge with others, but gut reaction from majority was blindly screaming scam, bubble, ponzi, etc. Becoming knowledgeable and educating yourself definitely helps on this, but difficulty level in finding the right starting point, and piecing it all together.

The thing with alts, as I mentioned, was to find some that are consistently in the top 10 and been relevant for a while and buy them when they are at huge discounts. The people that get wrecked by alts are most likely buying the newest meme coin that they saw shilled on reddit OR are buying alts in the middle of the bull market and holding them.

I'll use ADA again as a great example. 2018 through most of 2020 it was ranging under 10 cents for months and months, after crashing from $1. It took off to $3 in 2021 and crashed 90%+ by the end of 2022. Most people that bought were not entering when it was in the middle of the bear market, they probably were buying in 2021 when it was over $1 or even well past this, $2+. Can you imagine people like this buying thinking it's going to keep taking off but then are left holding through 2022? This is the pattern that most people follow. You can make a lot of money with alts in this space for sure, you just need to be buying them when they've crashed and not when they are pumping.

With this out of the way, I still think BTC and ETH are better plays for the vast majority of people and they would be better off just holding long term instead of trying to trade them. I personally see BTC at 120-150k this cycle and ETH at 10-15k.

 

[Stoic]

I think the truth is no one really knows where Bitcoin is going. Compared to the stock market, bitcoin is essentially brand new with a very short and volatile history.

 

[jaygreenb]

Vast majority of investors would honestly be better off just buying BTC and maybe ETH. There are a few alts that have been through a couple market cycles that are still relevant in the space, XRP and ADA are two of them. Here is the trick with alts, just about anything will pump in a crypto bull market and it's easy to 10x+ your money. However, there is no reason to hold longer term and you should sell into the bull before the market crashes.

Here's a good example from last cycle- You could have bought ADA at under 10 cents from late 2018 through most of 2020, only to see it pump to a little over $3 fall of 2021. Let's say you had invested 5k at a price average of 5 cents, so 100,000 ADA. Your investment in 2021 would have grown to $300,000. Now, if you decided to hold it through the bear market your ADA is now worth approximately $25000.

Now, let's compare this to BTC. Let's say you invested 5k into BTC at an average price of $5,000 from 2018 through 2020, which was very realistic btw, and you have 1 BTC. Your investment would have peaked at around $69,000 in 2021 and at the absolute lowest point it would have been worth around $16,000, and more recently between $25,000-$30,000. You really haven't lost all that much by holding on an asset that will still be relevant for a while. Meanwhile, some alt you made crazy gains on may not only have crashed hard but possibly not even return to those prices again. I'm not saying ADA specifically is a bad alt, just using it as an example.

100% agree with that. Over the long run, you will out perform 95%+ of other investors with just an auto buy on and DCA. Even if you do get one of the alts that do outperform, the net of all alts you own will not. Only a couple alts have ever hit new highs when priced in BTC in consecutive cycles. Even Ethereum has not and I own a good amount of it. You are really only making money on alts if you are a part of the scam or are a vet and dump on retail. You miss that pump, game over, thanks for playing. Then factor in all the time spent watching and researching for that edge, just not the right way to play it. Spend that time increasing your income to increase your DCA is much more effective strategy. Everyone new though always gets intoxicated by the chance for an overnight 1000x, if smart, you realize its an illusion. It is the initiation, happened to me as well in 17/18. Thankfully was always majority btc and course corrected.

I understand how difficult it is to have conviction in this market given how foreign and new it is to many. I got bashed so hard on the forum in 2017 trying to share the opportunity and knowledge with others, but gut reaction from majority was blindly screaming scam, bubble, ponzi, etc. Becoming knowledgeable and educating yourself definitely helps on this, but difficulty level in finding the right starting point, and piecing it all together.

Completely understand this. A lot of people thought I legit lost my mind, comments under their breathe, snickers, the whole nine. They also got to watch me make more in 2yrs than most in lifetime. Nice getting that vindication and a lot of my friends/family/employees got to ride along with me. Learned a lot of lessons along the way too

 

[jaygreenb]

I think the truth is no one really knows where Bitcoin is going. Compared to the stock market, bitcoin is essentially brand new with a very short and volatile history.

As far as short term price moves, would agree. Overall big picture, it is becoming very clear if you are paying attention and understand it

 

[AAAgent]

I think the truth is no one really knows where Bitcoin is going. Compared to the stock market, bitcoin is essentially brand new with a very short and volatile history.

I'm confident I know where it's going. That's the difference between understanding the industry, technology, and trends vs. not.

This is why education, especially guided education is important.

Future is heading away from
- trusting governments/corporations
- transacting in physical currencies and or fiat
- gold/silver (this will be slow and i think metals will do well in near future)

Future is heading into
- ever more digital
- ease of use
- off planet/space
- accountability and transparency
- permissionless

If you see these trends, deep dive into bitcoin and confirm that bitcoin matches these and is secure, finite/scarce, and permissionless, you end up with a no brainer choice.

The problem is, people barrier to understanding is extremely high for Bitcoin. Majority of boomers have a difficult time with technology, even some of GenZ has difficulty. As the adoption curve advances and we slowly reach critical mass, this will turn. Can still make lifechanging money before then though.

Bitcoin is currently worth less than Facebook. For a currency that's supposed to replace gold, that's a $13+ trillion dollar market, and is currently sitting at less than 5% of that, there's much room for upside. Companies are now using it to store and protect value/wealth. This will grow very quickly. Governments are just dipping their toes in. Retirement funds are about to take the plunge. Math is pretty clear.

 

[jaygreenb]

I think Bitcoin has potential to one of the most transformative innovations in human history. It is pretty wild that it was just a piece of code released into the wild and through natural market incentives it became fastest growing asset class in history. There is no leader, corp, marketing department pushing it, it was all completely organic network growth. It is truly an incredible piece of engineering that always finds its equilibrium to maintain the network. Every stress test the network adapted and became more robust. like a living global digital organism. Its a very deep rabbit hole to go down, I have spent years and probably a few thousand hours learning about it and still do not fully grasp all of its dimensions and impacts.

 

[sangheilios]

100% agree with that. Over the long run, you will out perform 95%+ of other investors with just an auto buy on and DCA. Even if you do get one of the alts that do outperform, the net of all alts you own will not. Only a couple alts have ever hit new highs when priced in BTC in consecutive cycles. Even Ethereum has not and I own a good amount of it. You are really only making money on alts if you are a part of the scam or are a vet and dump on retail. You miss that pump, game over, thanks for playing. Then factor in all the time spent watching and researching for that edge, just not the right way to play it. Spend that time increasing your income to increase your DCA is much more effective strategy. Everyone new though always gets intoxicated by the chance for an overnight 1000x, if smart, you realize its an illusion. It is the initiation, happened to me as well in 17/18. Thankfully was always majority btc and course corrected.


Completely understand this. A lot of people thought I legit lost my mind, comments under their breathe, snickers, the whole nine. They also got to watch me make more in 2yrs than most in lifetime. Nice getting that vindication and a lot of my friends/family/employees got to ride along with me. Learned a lot of lessons along the way too

I honestly haven't been all that excited about ETH this bear market, it's basically past the alt coin phase and performing more like BTC, especially post merge. With that said, I'd definitely consider buying some more if it drops under $1500. The problem with ETH is that it has competition and the gas fees can become quite outrageous, I distinctly remember how much it cost to send a couple years ago back in the bull market.

I personally feel that the 2nd half of last year was the best time to buy BTC and ETH. More recently, it's definitely been a solid time to load up on alts for sure. I think we have a few more months of this, maybe even some sell side pressure, and then as the halving approaches we hit up. With that said, I still see BTC ranging from 25k to maybe 35k for most of next year, so still plenty of time to accumulate.

 

[sangheilios]

As far as short term price moves, would agree. Overall big picture, it is becoming very clear if you are paying attention and understand it

Exactly, short term price action is almost impossible to figure out. The fact is that there are clearly some trends with BTC and the crypto market space. These trends are heavily based on the BTC halving cycle, which occur every 4 years. For alts specifically, you can see that they are based on this but also net liquidity, quantitative tightening vs. easing, etc. It may be coincidence, but every halving so far takes place the same year as the U.S presidential elections lol.

 

[sangheilios]

I'm confident I know where it's going. That's the difference between understanding the industry, technology, and trends vs. not.

This is why education, especially guided education is important.

Future is heading away from
- trusting governments/corporations
- transacting in physical currencies and or fiat
- gold/silver (this will be slow and i think metals will do well in near future)

Future is heading into
- ever more digital
- ease of use
- off planet/space
- accountability and transparency
- permissionless

If you see these trends, deep dive into bitcoin and confirm that bitcoin matches these and is secure, finite/scarce, and permissionless, you end up with a no brainer choice.

The problem is, people barrier to understanding is extremely high for Bitcoin. Majority of boomers have a difficult time with technology, even some of GenZ has difficulty. As the adoption curve advances and we slowly reach critical mass, this will turn. Can still make lifechanging money before then though.

Bitcoin is currently worth less than Facebook. For a currency that's supposed to replace gold, that's a $13+ trillion dollar market, and is currently sitting at less than 5% of that, there's much room for upside. Companies are now using it to store and protect value/wealth. This will grow very quickly. Governments are just dipping their toes in. Retirement funds are about to take the plunge. Math is pretty clear.

There's actually a lot coming out recently that the U.S government is a major whale in the space. I'm sure other governments are also a part of this as well. If you can get yourself 1 BTC, or even more, you are in fantastic shape for the longer term.

 

[jaygreenb]

I honestly haven't been all that excited about ETH this bear market, it's basically past the alt coin phase and performing more like BTC, especially post merge. With that said, I'd definitely consider buying some more if it drops under $1500. The problem with ETH is that it has competition and the gas fees can become quite outrageous, I distinctly remember how much it cost to send a couple years ago back in the bull market.

I personally feel that the 2nd half of last year was the best time to buy BTC and ETH. More recently, it's definitely been a solid time to load up on alts for sure. I think we have a few more months of this, maybe even some sell side pressure, and then as the halving approaches we hit up. With that said, I still see BTC ranging from 25k to maybe 35k for most of next year, so still plenty of time to accumulate.

For someone wanting to build a percentage allocation this is a great time to do it. Anyone relatively new, I just suggest put an automatic weekly DCA on don't look at it all the time. The volatility and the emotions that come along with it forces people to buy and sell at the worst times. Unless you have a LOT of experience, you are going to make all the wrong moves and get dropped on your head. Most new people, myself included, get drawn in by the parabolic price action and start chasing any and all pumps. This is the worst time to buy and then the rug gets pulled out from under you. BOOM! welcome to crypto, you are now initiated haha

In terms of Bitcoin and alt coins. Bitcoin is the only one I have high conviction that could put on a ledger for 10+yrs and I still own the same percentage of the network, the rules are the same and it has not been corrupted. If I had to make a rough comparison, Bitcoin is the protocol of the internet everything else is a tech company that will constantly change and evolve. It needs to be the foundation that you are unable to corrupted. It is the only way you have all the exchanges, funds, coins blow up that they can all be cleared out and built over that solid base. Similar to you could have Google blow up but then have a replacement built back up using the internet protocol. No doubt there will be massive winners but at this point it is anyones best guess

 

[sangheilios]

For someone wanting to build a percentage allocation this is a great time to do it. Anyone relatively new, I just suggest put an automatic weekly DCA on don't look at it all the time. The volatility and the emotions that come along with it forces people to buy and sell at the worst times. Unless you have a LOT of experience, you are going to make all the wrong moves and get dropped on your head. Most new people, myself included, get drawn in by the parabolic price action and start chasing any and all pumps. This is the worst time to buy and then the rug gets pulled out from under you. BOOM! welcome to crypto, you are now initiated haha

In terms of Bitcoin and alt coins. Bitcoin is the only one I have high conviction that could put on a ledger for 10+yrs and I still own the same percentage of the network, the rules are the same and it has not been corrupted. If I had to make a rough comparison, Bitcoin is the protocol of the internet everything else is a tech company that will constantly change and evolve. It needs to be the foundation that you are unable to corrupted. It is the only way you have all the exchanges, funds, coins blow up that they can all be cleared out and built over that solid base. Similar to you could have Google blow up but then have a replacement built back up using the internet protocol. No doubt there will be massive winners but at this point it is anyones best guess

I totally agree, the majority of investors just don't have the knowledge or personality/temperament to be able to implement a trading type strategy and they'd be better off just dollar cost averaging. That's why I think this space is so volatile and has so many people that get wrecked. The reality is that most people that invest in crypto weren't getting in until AFTER the market is already getting bullish.

Let's use the last cycle as an example.

In 2018 we saw some insane volatility to the downside and by the end of the year BTC was in the 3k range and ETH was under $100. I'm sure there were a lot of people that bought in during late 2017 or even beginning of 2018 who ended up getting wrecked and ultimately sold at a loss. However, the market more or less just oscillated through 2019 and for most of 2020 and I guarantee you that the majority weren't even looking at the market, let alone investing. This actually would have been the best time to be gradually accumulating. Late 2020 the market starts heating up and by early 2021 things were really taking off. When you start seeing the mainstream media talking about BTC and crypto is when retail starts entering. They were probably buying BTC at 40k+ and probably kept buying and buying. They were probably still holding their bags in early 2022, meanwhile the big investors had already exited. Then last spring things really started selling off and they eventually capitulate at some point and lose interest in the market.

Rinse and repeat

 

[jaygreenb]

I totally agree, the majority of investors just don't have the knowledge or personality/temperament to be able to implement a trading type strategy and they'd be better off just dollar cost averaging. That's why I think this space is so volatile and has so many people that get wrecked. The reality is that most people that invest in crypto weren't getting in until AFTER the market is already getting bullish.

Let's use the last cycle as an example.

In 2018 we saw some insane volatility to the downside and by the end of the year BTC was in the 3k range and ETH was under $100. I'm sure there were a lot of people that bought in during late 2017 or even beginning of 2018 who ended up getting wrecked and ultimately sold at a loss. However, the market more or less just oscillated through 2019 and for most of 2020 and I guarantee you that the majority weren't even looking at the market, let alone investing. This actually would have been the best time to be gradually accumulating. Late 2020 the market starts heating up and by early 2021 things were really taking off. When you start seeing the mainstream media talking about BTC and crypto is when retail starts entering. They were probably buying BTC at 40k+ and probably kept buying and buying. They were probably still holding their bags in early 2022, meanwhile the big investors had already exited. Then last spring things really started selling off and they eventually capitulate at some point and lose interest in the market.

Rinse and repeat

You may already be aware but this thread was started at the 3k bottom of 2018, love seeing it pop back up lol First half of 2017 is when I first started dabbling and trying to figure out what this all was. Thankfully I had someone who's opinion I trusted tell me to make sure I was a high percentage bitcoin and at least kept that as majority. That summer to almost an obsessive degree I went down the rabbit hole and shoveling as much money as I could into the market. Back then it was pretty tough, exchanges had really low maxes, believe around 3k a week or month. At the peak, I was up more money than I have ever seen at the time, then watched as it all dwindled away and then some in 2018. At the time, it took a pretty significant mental toll on me. I made every idiotic mistake there is with alts, some of it is legit embarrassing lol Was a very painful 500k+lesson but it motivated me to really dig into what I did wrong and what knowledge I was lacking. I kept buying btc and some eth through the while bear market. You are right though, almost everyone else either got completely washed out or just stopped paying attention all together. Human psychology of the majority always plays out in the same ways.

 

[VirtuousD]

Why did the trading thread get locked off?

Crypto trading

My personal belief in btc long term has not changed, the value is in being the most secure decentralized payment network ever created. So far ..... The central banks are well under way creating the next one with their little gov coins That will be the end of deregulated crypto...

www.sosuave.net

 

[cush21]

Late to this...but they're certainly around in 2023!

 

[Solomon]

I'm confident I know where it's going. That's the difference between understanding the industry, technology, and trends vs. not.

This is why education, especially guided education is important.

Future is heading away from
- trusting governments/corporations
- transacting in physical currencies and or fiat
- gold/silver (this will be slow and i think metals will do well in near future)

Future is heading into
- ever more digital
- ease of use
- off planet/space
- accountability and transparency
- permissionless

If you see these trends, deep dive into bitcoin and confirm that bitcoin matches these and is secure, finite/scarce, and permissionless, you end up with a no brainer choice.

The problem is, people barrier to understanding is extremely high for Bitcoin. Majority of boomers have a difficult time with technology, even some of GenZ has difficulty. As the adoption curve advances and we slowly reach critical mass, this will turn. Can still make lifechanging money before then though.

Bitcoin is currently worth less than Facebook. For a currency that's supposed to replace gold, that's a $13+ trillion dollar market, and is currently sitting at less than 5% of that, there's much room for upside. Companies are now using it to store and protect value/wealth. This will grow very quickly. Governments are just dipping their toes in. Retirement funds are about to take the plunge. Math is pretty clear.

Add to the fact that Blackrock is getting into the mix with their ETF's
Tons of governments are working to implent their own CBDC's or already have them i.e. China, Nigeria, India, Brazil etc

Everything will be tokenized and digitalized within 10-30 years

 

[SargeMaximus]

I put my Solana into a free ride last week.