what to do with your money??? (if you have any)

[PlayHer Man]

Tell that to the gold buyers in 2000, 2004, and 2008.

We still have another 4-5 years left of commodity bull market. You haven't seen fear yet.

2000, 2004 and 2008 we were not YEARS into a recession.

You are wrong. Sorry. I'm not going to keep arguing. You'll just have to learn the hard way.

 

[twentee]

well, if the secular bear ending requires all of those things, it will NEVER end,cause you aint gonna see the central banks stop buing gold, that much is certain. Unlike the suckers, THOSE GUYS KNOW what is being done with the currency-pump.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Right, tell that to my half mill house, Rolex and Porsche.....all made off of my investments in this secular bear market.

Yes.. because you CASHED OUT at the right time. :yes:

I already showed you ample evidence on how the recessions (Secular Bear markets) last for 17 year periods. You just keep ignoring it. I'll link a good start on it for you, again.



http://www.zealllc.com/2001/century.htm



The secular bear will be over once the following occurs....

1. Trailing PE's average around 7.
2. Everybody thinks the stock market is completely dead, with no more hope for recovery.
3. Dow:Gold ratio is in the 2:1 range.
4. Banks no longer need to suppress interest rates near 0.
5. Currency wars are over.
6. Central Banks are no longer buying gold.

You say this stuff like its a fact. Its NOT. If it was, everyone would get rich investing because everyone would know exactly when to buy and when to sell. :crackup:

Honestly, if you already bought gold, it makes perfect sense to hype it up right now. The higher the price goes the more you'll make when you CASH OUT.

At the end of the day.. no one can predict the exact date and time to CASH OUT on an investment. If you wait too long, you lose the opportunity. If you cash out too early, you make less money.

Outside of the people rigging this stuff, no one has a crystal ball to predict exactly when gold will drop in price. You say 3-5 years.. but you have no idea what world events will take place in the next 3-5 years that might change things. Who saw 9/11 coming in 2001? Stuff like that can happen overnight and change everything.

My basic rule is to CASH OUT when an investment becomes over-valued. Buy when everyone is running away and sell when everyone is buying

You just have to follow the trends based on the climate. When something is unpopular you get GREAT deals and when something is popular you can sell it at a high price.

I see your point. I just like to play things a little safer. I might not get rich as fast as you, but I won't lose my shirt either.

On a side note.. I believe that if central banks were buying gold for the reasons they lead us to believe.. IT WOULD NOT BE PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE. Follow my "average Joe" rule. Which basically means.. anything the mass media "exposes".. is usually information you needed a LONG time ago. Once the average Joe knows (mass media, bloggers on the Internet, etc.) you are too late.

This is the SAFEST way to invest and avoid cashing out too late. The very fact the Gold is talked about on TV makes me itchy about it. :nervous:

 

[twentee]

gold's a store of value PERIOD. It may "lose" you money, FOR A WHILE, which is why you shouldn't tie up ,more than about 10% of your net worth in it. but the gov't inability to resist the tempation to inflate the currencly ALWAYS brings gold prices back up to "par", (relative to currency)but it can sometimes take 20 years to do so. U don't see me pushing gold. I advocate that everyone own a bit of it, that's all. In case of a disaster, basically. You just go ahead and THINK about how it's going to "work out", with fewer and fewer people paying into SS with more and more tryng to live on SS, (and live longer, and spend MUCH more on medical care before they FINALLY kick the bucket) Many people live 5-10 years as essentially having no more mind left than a vegetable, costing tax payers about 1/4 million per year, EACH, for their medical and living costs. It can't go on, it's physically impossible. SS and medicare MUST collapse, and the gov't, to avoid the political fallout, WILL destroy the $, inflating it to stave off that SS collapse a year or 2.

 

[PlayHer Man]

No, because thankfully we have people like you who have this information, yet still choose to ignore it.

It is a fact, history proves it over and over again. You would know that if you read the link. Give me one secular bear market that ended when pe ratios werestill greater than seven?

First you need the knowledge (which I have handed you, but very few people have this). THEN you need to have the wisdom to act on that knowledge....so of the few that make the first cut, most still miss out on the second one.

Gotcha.

I was hyping it back in 2000 when tech was crashing....people laughed at me.
I was hyping it back when Real Estate went bonkers....people laughed at me.
I was hyping it during the 2008 meltdown.....people laughed at me.
There is a right time to sell, I completely agree with you. But as I point out over and over again, all of the metrics show that the time to sell has not yet been reached.

2000 was the perfect time to buy gold.. anytime before 2009 was great.

I guess you are misunderstanding my overall point. There is a very thin line and short time period between the best time to CASH OUT and losing your shirt.

For instance.. the best time to CASH OUT of Real Estate was 2008. If I had Real Estate back then I would of cashed out in 2006. Obviously you make more money if you wait until 2008.. BUT what if you miss the peak? Then you're f*cked.

That's all I'm saying. Better to leave early than miss the mark.

If you were familiar with War Cycles and Peace Cycles (or Secular Bulls and Secular Bears), you would realize that yes these things happen with predictability. I bought gold in 2000, 15 months before 9/11. People could have called me brilliant for that call....but it was knowing that we had entered the economic cycle when value shifts from paper to tangibles. It is precisecly during those periods where conflict escalates dramatically. Those periods last 17 years on average.

Another good read "The Fourth Turning".

17 years ON AVERAGE.. yes.

I completely agree with you, I'm just passing some of the isitorical metrics to you to better identify the turning points. I don't expect to to get the day right when everything turns around....but normally you will get several months where those metrics align.....and anywhere from 15-20 years of secular bear market is where they occur. Often ending in a parabola formation as well actually.

Can't really argue with this.

Again I agree with you on the Central Banks.......China is a great example of a quiet accumulator.

Gold is actually still talked about far less than most investments today. The time you should start getting very nervous is when CNBC (Cheerleading, Nothing But Chearleading) tells you that gold is going to go up.

We are in the early-mid phase of a mania. But it is still several years early as only now are some places around the world trying to get gold equated to money again. When that starts to happen en masse, and Mr T. comes out again wearing tons of gold chains......then that is when the media will be all over it and yet another signla of the end. Right now....too many people are calling it a barbarous relic, a bad investment, or saying "you can't eat it". When you have that many negatives on an investment.....you can bet it's bull market is not over yet.

All this makes sense. HOWEVER, you are forgetting all the other events going on in the economy at the same time that can impact the formation of this "bubble".

For instance, lets say something comes along (like the Internet in the 90's) that stimulates the economy. People go back to work. Production increases. Consumerism goes wild. What do you think will happen to gold? You guessed it.. people will stop buying it. They will get caught up in the "boom" of the new bubble and gold will fade into the background (like it did after 1982).

Gold becoming a bigger bubble in the next few years is strongly dependent on the economy staying in the toilet. This is why I say world events can change things over night. I CASH OUT once I've tripped my investment and/or it becomes over-valued.

So (like I said earlier) not everything has to become a massive bubble before it goes down in value/price. Just something to keep in mind.

 

[goundra]

Gold does not NEED to stay "in a bubble" (which IT AIN'T in anyway) Gold just caught UP with inflation, that's all. Or to state the facts more accurately, the rest of the world figured OUT that the US $ was WAY overvalued, relative to something that IS waf (ie, an oz of gold). You don't buy gold (if you have a brain) to make money. Instead, you buy a (bit) of it in order to prevent your losing EVERYTHING if a collapse comes, or in case you have to flee (as the Jews and a billion others have done or should have done (ie, Chinese). Real estate is non portable, paper assets can easily turn into nothing more than azzwipe. Gold has ALWAYS been worth SOMETHING, and it's fairly portable.

2 years to fix 12 TRILLION $ of indebtedness? LOL. What a crock. NOTHING is going to ( or ever possibly could ) fix our debt. We are just going to default/collapse, like EVERY other nation/state in the world has done (and will do someday). Politicians just CAN'T RESIST buying votes with war-making and welfare-handouts, especially to big corporations. There will NEVER be a democracy or a voting-republic that 100% backs its currency by gold, for exactly this reason. The elected "leaders" feel DRIVEN to spend more than they can possibly generate with (honest accounting) revenue- income.

 

[OzyBoy]

I have money in a savings account. it makes 150 bucks interest a month. Can't retire on it yet.

 

[backseatjuan]

I have a little, (GBP) ive took it out of the bank, its doing nothing in there and after what has happened in Cyprus....Ill look after my own thanks!

now, stocks /shares...forget it, way way over inflated, a crash looms!
gold/silver? you cant eat it but when the GBP/Dollar fails, which they will at some point, will hold value as currency.
Bitcoin??? uncertain about this, it seems high now but is vulnerable to technology failure.

guns and food?? cant have guns in the UK otherwise!!!

Property in Russia so you can flee your country. If you gonna flee, then to the biggest dog out there, thus Russia. Who's gonna f'ck with Russia? Energetic giant, nukes, big ass navy and army. T-90 tanks have better armor and furthest reach. Pancir-S can stop incoming homohawks, S-600 can defend skies, and Topol-M can blow up the planet to pieces. F'cking with Russia is like fingering a grizzly bear.

I suggest against apartments, unless that's your thing. Better buy land and on land build a house. Around these woods in the south you can buy 600 m^2 of land for 2,000,000 rub. And for the same price build a house. More north, Kuban, prices are less by half.

This winter I haven't seen any snow near the sea by the way. Walked whole winter in north face puff west and a long sleeve t-shirt, plus diamond gusset jeans, and some bates gx 8 gore tex. Not cold!

You'll have a house!