we'll never again see $1500 an oz for gold

[goundra]

lets have a 10 year test. get rid of the illegals, all of them, for 10 years. It's simple to do. Have the marines throw up a double fence of stacked rolls of razor wire, 3, 2, 1 rolls, staked to the ground and each row wired to the roll above it and the roll below it. Have sandbagged rifle towers every 200 yds, with trip-flares and dogs between the towers. Anyone caught between the fences is to be shot on sight. No shots can fired on either side of the fence. You can get the milita to man those towers, for no cost to the taxpayer!

No vehicle or boats to enter our territory without clear papers and being searched. Anyone caught sneaking in, we break both their knees with a hammer, tatoo "poyyo" on their foreheads, toss them back to their country of orignin. Here in US, for a month, no TV shows, 24 7, except employers being horsewhipped for hiring illegal aliens. Nothing but English on TV., radio, signs, paperwordk or in schools.

Get rid of the ones whose mommas dropped them here while she was here illegally, along with those that are weak-assed govt granted amnesties too. Altogether, the illegas number 20 million people. Then SEE if the trillon $ a year that we DON'T waste on them does't pickup our economy! If it doesn't, we can always let them back in, right? Mexico needs to knock off their bs about having too many kids. Ditto the rest of the 3rd world. Injections can render a woman infertile, for about $20 and in one hour. That is the only hope the earth has, reducing population. before Mother Nature does it for us, with a plague.

Today, we have machinery that can do eye surgery. In the US., we can build machinery to pick fruit and veggies. Production of the machinery here and using US citieznes to run it will provide several million jobs that pay $20 an hour, and that money will STAY in the US, not have half of it sent back to Mexico, or wherever. That $20 an hour worker, with the machine, will probuce 10x the veggies that the $7 an hour illegal can produce the way it's done now. So we get cleaner, better fruit, for LESS money, less crime, less gangs, less car wrecks, less theft, less misunderstanding and mistrust, less pollution, less noise, less demand on our schools and hospitals. All around a good deal

The catholic church needs to eat shyte about their bs about abortion and birth control. We need to quit giving tax breaks for kids and instead, CHARGE a tax for them. This would wake people UP to how much the taxpayer is subsidizing people who have no CLUE what kids cost ( to raise properly) It's 1/2 mill $ per kid, morons, and you aint got it. If you did, you'd be stupid to not just save invest and retire on it . Society feels no regard whatsoever for you. So why should you be a little slave-maker for society. ?

No other country in the world would tolerate even 10% of the illegals that we do. they'd go to WAR OVER SUCH AN INVASION! every one of the illegals is "jumping the line" of people who are waiting to LEGALLY immigrate here. As such, they are fvcking scumbags who fully deserve the treatment that they get for their CRIMES. IT IS A FEDERAL FELONY to cross our border illlegally, yet we do NOT prosecute the millions per year that we CATCH doing son! Horswhipping and tattoing cost almost nothing, so we would not be filing up our prisons.

When US employers can't FIND anyone who will work for less than $15 and hour Plus benefits, guess what? They will PAY $15 an hour, plus benefits, and the prices of stuff will go up VERY little, because very little of the cost of making anything is the labor involved. Without the drag on our schools, prisons, courts, hostpitals, etc, we can AFFORD to pay a bit more for food,etc, and by having jobs that pay 2x as much as they pay now, we can save up, get eductions, buy nicer homes and cars, and that money can "percololate" thru OUR economy, instead of Mexico's economy.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Exactly right. The bubble pops when everyone who is going to buy, has already bought. Thus leaving only sellers, which drives the price down far and fast slicing through the very few buyers left. The start of a vicious bear market.




What you are talking about is another version of "inflation", just backed by more bodies. And I agree with this.

My point is, that immigration is not the only path for growth, and that the inflation route is slow and painful whereas the default route is fast and painful.





More insults. I'm not sure why you feel the need to insult.

I keep saying it because it hasn't sunk in yet for you how utter important that concept is and how it is the pinnacle of everything here we are talking about.

The US has already defaulted twice in the last one hundred years. By default, I also mean that we can allow the general population to default by not borrowing that 11th dollar into existence. We have already come close with the last debt ceiling battle.





No, you said they were all negative. Let me remind you.









Again, I am not talking about paying down debt. I am talking about eliminating it, defaulting (like we have done twice already in the last 100 years). But again, I am not talking about just defaulting on the US debt, I am talking about letting the general economy go through a recession by not printing money to forestall it.




We are not talking about the deficit. You are getting confused.





I agree with all of this, but it has nothing to do with my point.

Once again from the top.

We have two options......print to keep the game going in painful way for two decades before recovery.

Stop printing and allow the economy to go through a serious recession and a series of defaults, painful for two years.

This is very simple, you are making it far more complex than it needs to be, and confusing yourself as a result.

Danger.. I don't really think we disagree on anything factual. I think we just disagree on what will realistically occur via the Government and the voting public.. given the current culture. Today's voters are different from voters in the 1920's, 30's, etc. So we have to remember this.

The solutions you offer are sound. They just ain't gonna happen.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Playherman, did you really blame the economic crisis on racism?

I don't know which college you went to but you obviously learned nothing but discredited Marxist and Keynesian economics. Just stop, you're embarrassing yourself.

Not even close. If that's what you think, then you have a reading comprehension problem.

And save the right-wing drama for your momma. All you posters who use attacks like "Marxist" and "Keynesian economics" are embarrassing yourselves. You are over-reacting like typical Fox News sock-puppets who can't think for themselves. :crackup:

My view points and opinions come from critical thinking. Looking at history and real life events to draw conclusions. Not listing to faggot political agenda pushers.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Im a libertarian you cvnt. I dont get any news from any tv.

Again.. reading comprehension.

The lack of growth is fueled by anti-immigration hysteria. Americans are in a place where they don't want many "foreigners" coming in. This is fueled by --> racism.

I said.. the economy is tanking BECAUSE OF --> a lack of growth.

The lack of growth is a result of low birth rates AND less immigration.

Got it?

Maybe if you didn't have an emotional knee-jerk reaction so fast.. you would understand what you are reading. :crackup:

 

[Fatal Jay]

Lets simplify this: Buying an investment when its popular is a fools game. Always has been, always will be. Lets list the things people bought when they were "POPULAR" and what the outcome was:

Gold in the 80's:

In 1982, the price of gold peaked, and every jackass and their mother tried to buy "Gold Krugerrands". Then the price tanked, and stayed tanked for more than a decade. People who got caught up in the "sky is falling" crap and fear surrounding Gold back then ended up losing a lot of money on their "investment". :yes: :yes: :yes:

Real Estate in the 80's:

In 1989, we had a speculative Real Estate bubble. Home owner/occupiers, felt they would be "priced out of the market" if they did not "BUY NOW!" Yea, same exact words, used by the same exact Real Estate Agents, 20 years to the day before the 2009 meltdown. And yet we never learn, do we?

Dot.com craze in the 90's:

Good old 1995, when anyone with a bunch of corny faggot ideas and some venture capital could be a dot.com golden boy in a matter of months.

The Internet was viewed as the Wild West back then, and people were throwing money at anything, hoping it would stick. The dot.com pioneers of the 1990's overshot the mark with their predictions for the future. What happened? POP.. the bubble busted. ::rock: :rock:

Facebook Stock of 2012:

Oh sh!t! Another "sure thing" bites the dust. Facebook Face-Planted. "Drrr..umm.. what happened????" Did the underwriter oversell the stock? Should they have sold fewer shares at a lower price? Maybe the "glitch" on the NASDAQ trading system is to blame?

Or maybe Facebook is just a sh!tty investment ... overvalued by a factor of 10. :crackup: :crackup:

Any of this starting to stick?

When it comes to investing.. you never buy when EVERYONE ELSE is buying. What part of this is confusing? But then again.. I'm better off keeping this common sense to myself and slowly getting rich rather than trying to convince the average sheep. If everyone had the common sense to be "good at investing" we'd all be rich.. right?

Gold is always higher in value during bad times. Buying gold in a bad economy (when everyone else is buying it) is like saying Michael Jackson's next tour will be the best to date in 2009.

You just got rep for this awesome post.

 

[1-800-HellNo]

Did anyone mention the resources we'll obtain from asteroid farming, and mining minerals on the moon?

I think it will be interesting when that starts happening in the next few years.

 

[Poonani Maker]

The only thing holding this Ponzi US DOLLAR together is the petro-dollar, period, end of story. That goes abandoned world-wide, then you're gonna wish you had gold/silver or land or guns or food/water, cause your "dollar" with become like confederate casholla is today, confetti. CON, these are con-artists running this country. Bootlickers, suckups, fvckups, brown-nosers, and on and on from kindergarten on up to the highest offices in the land.

 

[PlayHer Man]

This will be the Last time I explain this.

Even Danger who I've been going back and forth with for weeks on this topic agrees Gold will eventually go down in price.

We have reached amateur hour with metals like Gold and Silver, with average Joe ignoramus doing what he does best.. jumping on whatever the media promotes... buying Apple stock after it goes up to $600 a share, buying gold after it goes up to $1600 a share, buying houses after they shoot up to $500,000. Buy High, Sell Low... the middle-class road to bankruptcy.:crackup: :crackup: :crackup:

FEAR drives this stupidity... the fear that the dollar will drop or the economy will collapse. Glenn Beck used this to sell gold on his TV show and a lot of people bought gold (because that's what sheep do best--> March to the beat of the LOUDEST or scariest drummer).

Greed plays a role too, as people hear that "everyone is making money" in (real estate, gold, dot com stocks, whatever) and they jump in, because they're afraid (FEAR again) they will "miss out" on a good deal.

Why people are so stupid is beyond me. When something goes up in value that is not a sign it will continue to go up but more likely that it is due for a decline sooner or later.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Wait a minute....gold will eventually go down yes, but it still has more highs to make, and we are still taking a few years out.

The dollar has been devalued, it wasn't the fear that drove the price, it's that the dollar went down in value.

As another note......NOWHERE is the media saying to buy gold. In fact, the media is everywhere saying that gold is dead and in a bubble.

Playher, you have part of the game down and I think that is great, but you still have more to learn on the economic fundamentals that support the secular bull market in commodities.

Again Danger.. there are no guarantees.

Small Changes in Supply and Demand Result in Huge Changes in Market Valuation.

We all learned about the law of supply and demand and thought we understood it. It makes sense, after all, if demand increases then prices will go up, and if supply increases, prices will go down.

Where we, as consumers get confused, is in assuming this is a linear relationship. We think, well, the demand increases by 10% that means a 10% price increase. And we think that if the supply increases by 10% then prices drop by 10%.

Think again. :crackup: :crackup:

With even a 1% change the balance between supply and demand can swing prices by 5-10% or more.

Even in a good market, where prices are "stable", there is fluctuation. So prices go up and down, often amplified by supply and demand inputs. And SMART traders, who have access to better information than the overall public, might be able to predict these ups and downs and make money in the margins.

But in an unstable market? That's where it gets really tricky, and where people can make or lose fortunes betting on pricing. Our housing and gold markets are unstable markets - fluctuating wildly over time - and by time, I mean years, not hours or days.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Momentum trading is based largely on the greater fool theory: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

It doesn't matter how foolish your investment is, if later down the road an even bigger fool than you buys it from you for a higher price than you paid. However, the caveat to that is that you can't be the biggest fool, which is where the concept of a stop loss comes in. If an investment goes far enough into the red, you get rid of it at a loss before it wipes you out. The only "right" and "wrong" that matter is your p&l.

 

[PlayHer Man]

In the land of all investments, gold is the best option at the moment. Over anything else at all. Just looking at sector PE ratios is enough to tell that.

I disagree. But since there is no changing your mind.. I'll just leave this alone.

This is a nebulous statement and does not detract from my statements any more than it supports yours.

It supports my earlier point that world events that happen over night can change things overnight. We agreed that what happens with gold depends on what happens with the economy.

There are always gyrations in the market due to supply and demand. It's the long-term trend that matters (20 years). This is what tells you where to invest and for how long. Investing on this level sucks in entire generations.

Here is your mistake. You say gold is an unstable market, but you back it up with no hard data but just nebulous statements.

Gold is a very slow moving beast as far as investments and mining, and supply and demand. Yes, even over years.

I say gold will pop and go down. Control Theory dictates this will be the case. They keep mining the sh!t out of it, people melt down their jewelry. All over the world, supply increases. Eventually, people will start to sell, as price levels off, and once that happens, it will start an avalanche of sales - a sell-off, and the little people who bought at $1600 an ounce will get screwed just as the people who bought stucco houses for $1M got screwed. :crackup: :crackup:

Understanding the law of supply and demand can help you in making investment and buying decisions. When something is in hot demand and short supply, prices skyrocket. That does not mean the product is still a bargain or a good buy, only that some are willing to overpay.

I know what you will say now: "Gold hasn't peaked yet. We haven't seen the crazy rush to buy it". Guess what? It doesn't matter. All that matters is more people want to buy it than sell it. Once that changes.. the price will DROP. Its not debatable.

 

[PlayHer Man]

It doesn't support your argument at all. Because that mentality can happen with ANY investment, in ANY direction.

I could turn and say, well anything can happen, so that means internet stocks are going to the moon, buy buy buy!






Gold supply grows at less than 3% a year. And jewelry being melted down is only a one time supply shock, which if you check the gold data, has already mostly happened.

I am familiar with Supply and Demand, my degree is in economics.

This is exactly why I asked you "how many people do you know that own gold coins". Which you never answered. I GUARANTEE YOU that more than half of the population does not own gold or currently intends to buy it. So you are aboslutely wrong when you say that more people want to buy gold than sell it.

Having said that, your theory is sound in only one concept.....once everyone HAS BOUGHT, then you have a top.....simply because all that is left are sellers. And when that happens you get a crash, not a sideways grind like we have currently.

Here is a great chart of gold from 2000 to present.....along the way there have been spikes, followed by a sideways grind, which gives way to a new price spike. Currently we are in a sideways grind.

The situation you are talking about is a parabolic spike, like this chart......those are followed by a crash, not a sideways grind.

This is how you tell the difference between a consolidation in a bull market, and full blown crash that will not recover. If gold was done it's bull market, and if it was overinvested.....you would have seen a crash after the latest high, as opposed to a sideways consolidation.

Danger.. carefully examine what you wrote above in RED. This is the ONLY place we disagree. What you wrote in red is the reason we have been arguing for weeks.

You are making the assumption that the price can only peak after a huge groundswell to buy. This is FALSE bro.

One perfect example is Facebook. How many people bought Facebook stock in 2012? Did EVERYONE you know have Facebook stock before it tanked? NOPE. More people have gold than Facebook stock.

Did Facebook stock continue to rise? NOPE.

You fail to understand that DEMAND CAN DROP even if everyone doesn't "jump on the bandwagon". We see it happen all the time. Here is another analogy: In 1998 Honda discontinued the Accord Station Wagon. Was there a huge BOOM to buy them first? NOPE. People simply started buying SUV's instead and lost interest in the station wagon.

This is what I'm trying to explain to you. No "panic" needs to occur. A Simple drop in demand is all it takes for it to tank.

 

[PlayHer Man]

My assumptions are based on the nature of secular bull markets and bear markets, as well as the fundamentals which support them.

What you call an assumption (the movement of price in a secular bull market), I call reasoned analysis. I have a plethora of metrics that support the argument the commodity bull market is not yet finished. You keep falling back to just one, and it's nebulous at best as it can't be measured effectively. Fear.

Facebook is not even close to comparable to gold. Facebook had no fundamentals at all and was hyped right from the start. Apples and Oranges.

As I pointed out before, this argument is applicable to EVERYTHING, not just gold. Demand drops for a reason though, and that is what you are not paying any attention to. You keep missing the fundamentals of what supports the commodities market, the secular bull markets, the secular bear mearkets and the patterns that emerge as a result of these conditions.

You don't just miss them, you ignore them completely, just to focus on one nebulous metric called "fear", which you cannot even measure.


Of course it only takes a drop in demand, but you keep neglecting to articulate how this demand will drop, the reasoning behind the demand drop, and the metrics to support those assertations.

Meanwhile, every post I make shows exactly those fundamentals, metrics, patterns and reasoning behind such.

In short, I have all of the data on my side, but all you have are large font colored words and emoticons.

Danger, there is nothing in the economy to warrant gold being worth three times what it was in 2005 - or $200 an ounce less than a few months ago. Prices of gold are swinging wildly in reaction to an unstable system - fed by bad data.

And that is where the system model falls apart, when applied to economics. Your thermostat at home doesn't panic when it gets hot. It is not afraid of getting cold. It's isn't greedy and tries to "hoard" heat. On the other hand, human-driven systems can be skewed through emotional inputs - poor normative cues - that drive prices up or down.

You don't seem to understand that supply and demand is driven more by human emotions than anything else. All the math and charts in the world can't predict how people will FEEL tomorrow. And how people FEEL dictates their behavior and what they do with their money. Its not debatable.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Exhibit A: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet up by a factor of 6x since 2000.
Exhibit B: Money supply up by a factor of 4x since 2000, not even including the last three years.
Exhibit C: 40% of gold supply has been from recycled gold, and that is drying up. Simultaenously the cost to extract gold is rising as fast as the gold price itself.

You are making the mistake most people make --> Only looking at data from 2000 to present. Try looking at data from 1920 to now. Then get back to me.

Of course markets have a considerable degree of emotional pricing. You assertation that emotions are the highest degree of pricing in gold is wrong though, and I have displayed why it is wrong and featured charts that represent emotional trading.

Hell, a perfect emotional trading chart is this one right here, that happened today in BitCoin! The result being.....a 40% drop today.

And THAT is the difference between an emotional investment in a bad ending (bitcoin), and an investment that is in a consolidation phase (gold).

Guess what? The Real Estate bubble 2009 wasn't "different" in any respect from the bubble of 1989. The Gold Bubble of today is the same as the Gold Bubble of 1982. They are all alike, no one is unique. Bubbles are bubbles.

History tells the story. And history goes way before 2000

And yet here you are, predicting how people feel today, or tomorrow.

But of course, what you don't realize is that the charts don't predict how people will feel tomorrow, they predict how they feel today, or yesterday.

My point being, again, that a parabola is what represents fear or greed. And we have no parabola in gold. And it is not fear driven so much as it is fundamental driven. But, yes, we will eventually get to fear. Just not today son.

Whether it is houses, gold, or Apple stock, what ends up happening is that yes, there is still some headroom left in pricing. Soooo... the commodity goes up another notch.. WOW!! And average Joe ignoramus says, "See! I told you this was a good deal!" and people start talking about houses being worth a Million, or Apple Stock going to $1000 a share, or gold hitting $5000 an ounce.

Same sh!t different day. People simply never learn. They always think "This time is different." No this time is not different. No the sky is not falling. No its not Armageddon

The fear of devalued currency is nothing new. Let's go back to 1982 again. Who remembers the "Gold Krugerrand" craze of the late 1970's and early 1980's? I wasn't alive but I READ a lot. Everyone was going to buy gold coins, because the economy was in the tank. Better buy GOLD baby! Because when it all falls apart, that's all that will be worth anything! Sound familiar?

Those people quietly lost their shirts in the 1980's and many are still "underwater" on their 1982 "investment" in Gold. :crackup:

I'm pretty sure all the big gains in Gold are over. We might have some time before it tanks, but we'll only see big gains IF the economy gets worse. I don't see that happening at least until the baby boomers retire and cash out their 401K plans.. crashing the market. But that's assuming they even bother to retire. The 2009 crash took out a lot of wealth.

If you believe there are still gains to be made in gold you are probably right. But big gains? $5000 an ounce gains? Keep dreaming.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Funny you say that. I did that for some 15 years....and here is a good link to describe the situation.

Again, this is the FOURTH time I have posted this link, and you keep ignoring it.


And again, here are two specific metrics to help determine the end of the gold secular bull and the end of the S&P secular bear.

• Dow:Gold ratio hits 2:1
• Average PE ratio hits 7

These have not occured for 33 years. They are trending towards those goals but are not likely to reach them for another 3 or so years.

You are still missing the big picture.

You keep repeating the same mantra over and over, and I keep providing you the same metrics, over and over. But you ignore them.







I agree with all of this, except the bubble of 1989 you refer to I assume is the Japanese bubble?

Yes, they are all unique. And they all give off plenty of recognizable signals to help the educated to understand their limited time. And I tell you again, the key metrics have not yet been met for ending the S&P secular bull, or the commodity secular bear.





You are once again building strawmen. I never said the world was ending, I never said this time was different.

I provided metrics for every one of your posts. All of the evidence and facts are on my side. You just build straw men and keep talking about fear. I keep showing you what a chart of "fear" looks like, and then you ignore it.





I completely agree. And to repeat yet again.....we have not reached that level of fear.

Here is a chart of gold collapsing after that fear induced bubbled. It was fast and dramatic. THAT is how bubbles end, not with an 18 month sideways grind.







The historical Dow:Gold ratio comes back to 2:1 every 40 years. Since you are so interested in going back to 1920, here is a good chart to illustrate what I am talking about.

Plus the PE ratio.....which are the fundamentals of investing.....this helps illustrate why the secular bear market is not over.....(assuming you still didn't understand that from the Zeal Century of the Dow link I posted).

Like I said, all of the evidence suggests we still have several years left of secular bear in the S&P and corresponding bull market in commodities.

The rate of money printing going on, and the interest rate setup in Bonds supports this theory, as does the behavior of markets that are collapsing from a fear induced boom. Add to that the fundamentals of the gold bull market are still in place from a supply/demand standpoint.

In summary, gold is not yet done making new highs. Using history as evidence, we could see a gold price approaching a 1:1 ratio with the dow, but I prefer to not push it and get out at 2:1, which still suggests a price in the $5,000 range by the time full panic sets in.

I don't know why you keep saying I'm ignoring your links. What do you want me to say about them? The facts are the facts and the opinions are the opinions. Outside of the FACTS Adam Hamilton, CPA is not God and I choose my investments based on my own analysis. If Adam Hamilton has the "goose that lays the golden eggs".. he sure as f*ck isn't going to post it on the Internet :crackup: :crackup:

If I decided to go Online and name specific investments I have to "inform people" it would be to drive up the price so I can CASH OUT and sell that sh!t.

If Adam Hamilton knows how to get rich.. he'll just get rich and not bother telling everyone else in the world what he is doing while he is doing it. Investing is one of those areas where you can only trust the facts and your own critical thinking. The people with the BEST "intelligence" are not sharing it with the general public. You can't just click a link on the Internet and have top secret investing "intelligence".

Gold will NOT make it to $5000 an ounce. MARK MY WORDS. I know you don't believe me and I will never convince you. I don't need to convince you. Time will do that for me.

No need to keep arguing. We'll see who is right soon enough.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Ok, so you have attacked the messenger of only one of my links, (ad-hominem), while still avoiding the rest of my links. And then of course, accused me of doing none of my own critical thinking, whilst I have posted all sorts of analysis and metrics which you avoid like the plague.

And, shockingly, you have yet to post ONE metric to support your theory other than nebulous ravings about fear.

As for Adam Hamilton, you can attack him all you want, but his analysis is spot-on and we are only 13 years into a secular bear market in the S&P, and 13 years into a secular bull market in gold. Valuations also have not yet reached new highs in gold which NEVER fails to happen in a secular bull market.

It is funny how you hate on him though and are now blowing up and attacking him. If he was planning on doing a "pump and dump" then he has one hell of a long-term view, since he wrote that article back in 2000! :crackup: :crackup: :crackup:

He must have great investing vision, to be able to pull off a 13 year pump and dump.


EDIT: Still, here is another great link on the subject of mining and the cost basis. The funny thing about CPI numbers, .gov can massage them all they want for reporting to the public, but they can't hide the true cost from the reality of running a business. And in the mining world we have costs increasing with the true rate of inflation at around 10% per year......Meaning that mining gold at $1500 an ounce is not nearly as profitable as it was ten years ago. These are exactly the fundamentals which drive up the price of a good. The more it costs to bring it to market, the higher the price must go to support those costs.

Danger.. you just won't let this thing go. Are you trying to convince ME or yourself? I've tried to end this argument many times and you won't let it go.

Bottom line is.. I'm NOT going to share all my investing secrets on the Internet for all to see. If you can't see the logic behind what I HAVE shared, then that's unfortunate. You'll just have to learn the hard way.

Your style of arguing suggests emotional investing. You have fallen in love with gold and you'll defend it at any cost. Whatever dude..

Gold is NOT going to reach $5000 an once. It just wont (unless you want to wait 20 or 30 years) :crackup: .

Remember who told you first --> PlayHer Man on SoSuave.. not Nick Holland or Adam Hamilton

 

[PlayHer Man]

• You have broached this topic in no less than three threads
• You continue to avoid my logical, reasoned arguments.
• You continue to avoid posting any metrics whatsoever for your opinions.
• You are now frustrated that I keep pointing this out.
• You are so emotionally invested in YOUR argument, that you consider my metrics to be emotional investing whereas you have no metrics whatsoever.

Playher, if you don't want to respond. Then stop responding. Sure gold may not hit $5,000 an ounce.....but the last century of investing history and the current metrics suggest it is a high probability. I have the numbers on my side, and I posted them. Your only metric is a nebulous one that cannot be measured, "fear". As if that wasn't enough, I actually demonstrated to you graphically what fear looks like, in multiple charts showing gold in the fear stage, tech stocks in the fear stage, and bitcoin in the fear stage that occured only yesterday. We have not yet seen fear show itself in the gold markets.

Post all the charts and metrics you want. There are no sure things in investing.. especially not on WEBSITES on the Internet bro. :crackup:

When gold plummets, then we'll see how well you "proved me wrong". This is investing we're talking about, not how to cook a burger correctly.

Mineral wealth is illusory. And unfortunately, the best time to have bought gold was back in 2004 or earlier, before the price went up. Trying to "get in" on the deal now, is like those in 2007 who tried to "get in" on the Real Estate boom. They lost their shirts and the late bloomer gold buyers will too.

Gold goes up in price when markets are unstable. So in the current downturn, the price is up, just as it was in 1979. Then, if the economy improves for the better, as it did in 1982, the price will drop back down again.. for a very, very long time (try 20 years!).

If you truly believe your logic is spot on then go buy all the Gold you want bro. No one is stopping you.

 

[PlayHer Man]

• I find it amusing how you always avoid the fundamentals, and instead prefer to utilize ad-hominem attacks on the percieved source of the data.
• The websites are there to illustrate my point to you, they are not the source data and therefore you are absolutely wrong in your assertation that the data is wrong or flawed.
• And of course.....you say there are no sure things in investing, yet it was only two posts ago where you said.....

So, in summary, you are saying that my conclusions with solid historical evidence are not sure things, but your statements based on nebulous immeasurable feelings ARE sure things. Interesting.





And what is your gold forecast again other than "fear!"? And what metrics were you using? Oh, right. No metrics. No valuations, nothing at all. Nada. Just this feeling of "fear".





2000 was the best time to buy gold in this secular bull. And that is exactly when I bought it. The rest of your point is meaningless without those metrics which you cannot provide. Therefore your comparison to Real Estate is meaningless.

Additionally, your statement that mineral wealth is illusory displays your not understanding the concept of money and value. it is the paper currency wealth that is illusory.


Gold, like every other market, goes up in price when the supply/demand curves shift appopriately to induce investment.

What you have not yet learned is that "unstable markets" (meaning gnerally the S&P) are only one component of a commodity bullmarket. But again, all of your conjecture is meaningless without metrics.

Its simple supply and demand Danger. More simple than you're making it out to be. Listen to the logic in my statements. They have all the answers you need (if you're willing to listen).

When unemployment drops another tenth of a point, that's bad news for Gold.

When the stock market goes up another 10%, that's bad news for Gold.

You have to get this idea out of your head that Gold is this "magical exception". I see you're going back to your fear based "Minerals are the only secure currency" argument. Fear of devalued currency rules your hard-on for gold. I've been saying this all along. FEAR, FEAR, FEAR. Not logic.

For most of the recent history of Gold, it has been a crapola investment. The value of your investments, your money, and even your gold, is based on an unwritten agreement among all of us to recognize these values.

Gold will only "store wealth" if bought at the right time with the right currency. The right time is a GOOD economy when the price is LOW. This will allow you to store your wealth and CASH OUT during economic downturns such as NOW.

 

[PlayHer Man]

• I gave you the information on supply and demand and why it is positive for gold and mining (two links).
• I gave you information on how the Money supply has risen by several multiple, as well as the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, proving that your fear based reasoning is wrong.
• These are not forecasts of fear, these are historical facts for the last ten years. These forecasts are based on fundamentals, not fear.

Define recent history? The last ten years have seen gold rise by a factor of 6x, right in line with the rise in the money supply and the Fed Reserve Balance Sheet.

And here is where you are failing. We are four years into the "good economy". Or to be more precise, we are four years into a cyciical bull market within a secular bear market. That is why the S&P is making new nominal highs. In a four year long cyclical bull market.

Remember, secular markets lets approximately 18-20 years.....cyclical markets last around 2-4 years within the secular market.

This is why it is EXACTLY the time to buy gold. The S&P is nearing the end of it's 4 year cyclical bull market and will be correcting over the next 18 months (cyclical bear market), and it will send gold back up to 1800 or higher.

The last cyclical bull within the secular bear lasted from 2003 to 2007, right before the meltdown. The previous one before that was right at the end of the tech boom, and had a similar meltdown.

We are now approaching the final cyclical bull within the secular bear market. Did you miss the part on CNBC with everyone celebrating the new highs in the Dow and S&P? This is exactly the time to be buying gold.

Here is a great illustration for youregarding the latest cyclical bull within a secular bear, by your favorite, Zeal.

Of course, I am still waiting for your metrics which tell you gold is overvalued.

Danger.. We are still not in a "good economy". The 2009 crash was much more severe than any crash since the Great Depression. We are not "booming" right now.

At the end of the day.. one of us is right and one of us is wrong. No one will know who won this argument until Gold either rises or falls. Time will tell. And whoever ends up being wrong will look very stupid.

Gold will NOT reach $5000 an ounce or even $3000 an ounce any sooner than 20 years (if it ever happens).

Remember who told you first --> PlayHer Man :yes:

 

[PlayHer Man]

I agree we are not in a "good economy" by secular bull metrics, but by cyclical bull metrics.....we are in a good economy, and the stock markets are making new nominal highs in recognition of that metric....and again per my metrics and PE valuations still in their high 20's, the stock market is still not done correcting from it's 2000 secular bull peak.....which means commodities continue to be in a bull market.

At this point in time, it's safe to say that all of the evidence is on my side and supports my argument.....and your evidence supports.....uh.....well, you have no evidence.

So again from the top......Secular bears in their entirety are a bad economy......however the cyclical bulls which live inside of them are good economy moments that usually last 3-4 years. We are 4 years into a cyclical bull inside of a 20 year secular bear. Basically, a good economy "head-fake" within a 20 year bad economy.

What does this mean? Batten the hatches, we aren't through the woods yet.....and commodities aren't done their bull market either. Particularly gold.

Hey Danger.. guess what? You can't win an argument about something that hasn't happened yet.

Gold will NOT reach $5000 an ounce or even $3000 an ounce any sooner than 20 years (if it ever happens).

All I need you to do is REMEMBER who told you first --> PlayHer Man :woo:

Don't forget!!!

EDIT: If you Google "Gold $5,000 an ounce" you'll see the idiot media pushing it like crazy. You are too late once the faggot media is talking sh!t on an investment (Facebook stock anyone? :crackup: :crackup: :crackup::crackup: ). Average Joe ignoramus is jumping in. Gold will tank.