we'll never again see $1500 an oz for gold

[goundra]

they have printed too many dollars, we have too much debt, for that to ever happen. You MIGHT see $100 or so per oz of dip in price, but that's about it.

 

[DanZy]

If too much money has been printed, the price of everything will go up. The price of gold is always going to increase.

 

[PlayHer Man]

You're both wrong and going off of fear-based "the sky is falling" rhetoric.

This is a perfect example of how people don't learn from history. Not only has the price of gold fluctuated over time in BOTH directions historically (look at the 80's) but people said the same thing you are saying right now about Real Estate just a few years ago. The SAME sh!t... "Drrr.. um.. the price of Real Estate will always go up. Drrr.. um... $500,000 homes will be worth a million in a few years.. drrr.. umm..." :crackup: :crackup: :crackup: Idiots! Morons!

Look around: The price of gold triples in a matter of a decade. Apple Stock soars to $600 a share. The price of housing goes berserk. What do these trends all have in common?

Corrections are coming b!tches. Why? Because the only thing you can reliably say about any trend, is that it is never sustainable, for the long term. What goes up must come down. "Drr.. umm.. but not this time! The sky is falling. Its different.. drr.. umm.." YES.. THIS TIME TOO FOOL.

Its simple math:

If Apple is making record profits selling little electronic devices, then other companies will see those profits and compete. And they are, and collectively, they make up 2/3 of the smart phone market - and the pad market, shortly.

Gold shoots up in price, grandma melts down her gold. Old gold mines all over the world reopen to dig for it. Pretty soon, supply catches up with demand (gold is not rare people).

Housing shoots up in value, builders go on an orgy of construction until there are more properties than there are buyers.

You people NEVER learn....:crackup:

I guess you both missed my earlier thread: http://www.sosuave.net/forum/showthread.php?t=203361

 

[DanZy]

Exactly. It will always fluctuate but will trend upwards as long as there is a demand. If the power of currency decreases (which it is), the price of gold increases.

 

[PlayHer Man]

You guys have the basic idea right.. but what you are forgetting is the current price of gold is not the actual value of gold. This is why the price will eventually come down HARD.. inflation or no inflation.

What many people fail to realize is that inflation is not prices going up.. its the value of currency going down. Prices don't change.. EXCEPT FOR BUBBLES when prices are raised beyond inflation (like Gold right now).

When the price of gold is higher than inflation, it is overpriced.. which means you are paying more for it than its actually worth. That means, even with inflation, you will lose money on it in the future.

Just like with the housing market example.. homes worth $100,000 were selling for $500,000. The higher price was not the true value. Likewise, gold is NOT worth $1,600 an once.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Playher, you are so close but not quite there.

Gold is a store of value, that rises alongside inflation. One cannot compare the price of gold to inflation though unless you are comparing them over time, but even then you have to be careful. Especially if you are comparing a price to a rate.

100% of prices in the modern world are driven by supply and demand which is driven by emotions (hype and fear). Gold is no exception.. because there ARE NO EXCEPTIONS. People thought Real Estate was an "exception" too :crackup:

There are no exceptions Danger. ZERO. Everything in the world follows this rule.

Gold is a "store of value" when you buy it for the price it is ACTUALLY WORTH. If you buy an once of gold today (4/2/13) for $10,000.. do you believe it will "store" that value. NO.. because that is NOT THE VALUE. Its not worth $10,000 today.. so how can it "store" value it doesn't have???

As of today (4/2/13) Gold is NOT worth $1,600 an once. That is the PRICE.. not the VALUE. Why? Because hype and fear has driven the price beyond its true value.

Understand the difference between selling PRICE and true VALUE. I can sell you a pizza for $1,000 dollars. But a pizza's VALUE is more like $8.00. This is what is happening with gold.

Again:

Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.
Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.
Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.
Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.
Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.
Gold is not worth $1,600 an once.:trouble::crackup:

 

[PlayHer Man]

You have built quite the strawman argument there.


Of course prices are driven by supply and demand, nobody is saying gold is an exception. But you miss my point, you provide no evidence for your assertation that gold is not worth $1600 an ounce. Your unbacked belief is not evidence on what the value of an asset should be.


I provided a litany of evidence, which you just chose to ignore, and instead built yourself a pretty strawman attacking an argument that I never made. Fair enough, carry on then.

Danger.. have you been reading everything I've said so far? The evidence is right in front of your face bro:

The price of gold tripled in a decade. Does that match inflation bro? :crackup: :crackup: :crackup:

Emotions f*ck investors every time. Instead of seeing reality for what it is.. they fall in love with a certain investment then get ass-raped with all the other sheep.

 

[goundra]

he TOLD you that the price of gold lags behind what the market has been doing. gold CAUHGT UP with inflation, and it's NOT going back down. This country is on its way to disaster, due to stupidity, cowardice, greed, arrogance, laziness, etc, and it's going to happen soon. It's guaranteed, due to the Baby boomers overwhelming social security, and the pols being too chickenshyte to fix it. the ONLY fix would be to DRASTICLY cut back ss benefits, medicaid and medicare, as well as cutting back corporate welfare, militay bs all over, foreign aid, and all the OTHER huge wastes of resources.

 

[PlayHer Man]

he TOLD you that the price of gold lags behind what the market has been doing. gold CAUHGT UP with inflation, and it's NOT going back down. This country is on its way to disaster, due to stupidity, cowardice, greed, arrogance, laziness, etc, and it's going to happen soon. It's guaranteed, due to the Baby boomers overwhelming social security, and the pols being too chickenshyte to fix it. the ONLY fix would be to DRASTICLY cut back ss benefits, medicaid and medicare, as well as cutting back corporate welfare, militay bs all over, foreign aid, and all the OTHER huge wastes of resources.

WRONG.

But this batsh!t way of thinking is the reason the price of gold is so high right now. Once the blithering hobo on the street is saying to "buy gold" or the airhead bimbo at the nightclub is saying "buy gold" I know its time to get out. SMART people know this.

All gold pushers are emotional and ignorant.. going off of fear and other doom and gloom crap (except for the people hyping it so they can drive the price up and SELL at a profit).

This is why I don't bother giving people financial advice. They'll listen to some random faggot blogger or some clown on TV before anyone talking sense.

The whole system is rigged but the common man has his head up his ass too far to see it. Some of it is willful ignorance.. as being emotional is easier than being logical (and more exciting).

When the price of gold plummets (and it will) don't come back crying about Obama (or whoever is in office) or the 1% or immigrants, or CEO's or whoever else you can find to blame for your ignorant life choices. Its all YOU baby. You bought into the hype. Sucks for you.

 

[Fatal Jay]

I never owned gold, so motherf*ck it. America has gone to $hit, it already started off bad by the bloodshed of innocent native Americans.

American has gone down the toilet thanks to Bankers, Athiest, Satanist, Politicans, Homosexuals, and Presidents.

This country will never recover, because we are already far to gone, make the most money you can now, make sure you got a few guns, and keep a bible on you, and you will be fine.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Oil, up by a factor of four in the last ten years.
Food, up by a factor of five in the last ten years.
Housing, up by 2.5 in the last ten years.
But for gold? It must be overvalued.


Look around you mate, and look very closely. Inflation is up a LOT more than you think it is.

And again, inflation is not the only driver for the price of goods, so is the supply and demand for the good itself.

And yet again, gold and inflation do not go up linearly. The 1960's, 70's and 80's prove that in spades.

Guns and butter of the late 60's and early 70's didn't manifest itself into gold for nearly a decade, and gold plummeted during the early 80's even while inflation was still running at 10%.

The simple equation of inflation to gold is just that, simple and it is a weak metric do use individually. Even if you did focus on just that one metric.....oil, housing and food have confirmed the price move accurately.

I have been doing this for 20 years son, this commodity bull has at least a couple more years left before it's said and done.

Lets simplify this: Buying an investment when its popular is a fools game. Always has been, always will be. Lets list the things people bought when they were "POPULAR" and what the outcome was:

Gold in the 80's:

In 1982, the price of gold peaked, and every jackass and their mother tried to buy "Gold Krugerrands". Then the price tanked, and stayed tanked for more than a decade. People who got caught up in the "sky is falling" crap and fear surrounding Gold back then ended up losing a lot of money on their "investment". :yes: :yes: :yes:

Real Estate in the 80's:

In 1989, we had a speculative Real Estate bubble. Home owner/occupiers, felt they would be "priced out of the market" if they did not "BUY NOW!" Yea, same exact words, used by the same exact Real Estate Agents, 20 years to the day before the 2009 meltdown. And yet we never learn, do we?

Dot.com craze in the 90's:

Good old 1995, when anyone with a bunch of corny faggot ideas and some venture capital could be a dot.com golden boy in a matter of months.

The Internet was viewed as the Wild West back then, and people were throwing money at anything, hoping it would stick. The dot.com pioneers of the 1990's overshot the mark with their predictions for the future. What happened? POP.. the bubble busted. ::rock: :rock:

Facebook Stock of 2012:

Oh sh!t! Another "sure thing" bites the dust. Facebook Face-Planted. "Drrr..umm.. what happened????" Did the underwriter oversell the stock? Should they have sold fewer shares at a lower price? Maybe the "glitch" on the NASDAQ trading system is to blame?

Or maybe Facebook is just a sh!tty investment ... overvalued by a factor of 10. :crackup: :crackup:

Any of this starting to stick?

When it comes to investing.. you never buy when EVERYONE ELSE is buying. What part of this is confusing? But then again.. I'm better off keeping this common sense to myself and slowly getting rich rather than trying to convince the average sheep. If everyone had the common sense to be "good at investing" we'd all be rich.. right?

Gold is always higher in value during bad times. Buying gold in a bad economy (when everyone else is buying it) is like saying Michael Jackson's next tour will be the best to date in 2009.

 

[PlayHer Man]

Asie from you ignoring all of my points so far, let me again address yours while I wait for you to address each of mine.


You are exactly right in your thought process about not buying when it's popular, but wrong in your timing and metrics.

By what metrics are you using to say gold is popular? How many people do you know that have gold coins? How many friends of yours are talking about what gold stocks to buy? How often do you hear in the media how much gold you should own? Did your taxicab driver give you any hints on some good mining exploration plays?

We hit a mania only when the public is euphoric on a sector and everybody believes it will never go down. When this happens the take-downs are brutal in nature and lightning fast. Gold has been consolidating int he 1550-1800 range for the last 17 months, which it always does after an upleg. If it was going to crash, it would have been cut in half by now since it's peak in August of last year. Just like in 1980.

Point is, right now the general market is FAR more popular than gold. It just made new highs again and appears to be levitating without any fear regardless of what is happening in Cyprus right now, and soon to be Italy, Spain and Slovenia.

If you want to see a bubble, take a look at the bond market, that should scare the bejezus out of any sane person. But again, you are about 3-5 years to early in your gold market call.

I agree with you on everything except what I highlighted in red. Markets don't just crash when everyone is "euphoric" about an investment. They also crash when an investment is overvalued and rigged via hype to allow the corrupt people spreading the hype to "cash out" in large numbers.. driving down prices.

We will likely see another market crash when all the baby-boomers start cashing in their 401k. This will have nothing to do with public "euphoria". Just simple supply and demand.

Also.. I'm not saying gold is going to plummet tomorrow. Most who saw the Real Estate bubble expected it to pop years before it did. Gold may have another 3-5 years, or it may have 1 year.

All I'm saying is demand has been driven up by fear and the bad economy. Once the fear goes away, people will stop buying gold in large numbers. Once people stop buying it, the demand will slip and (you guess it) the price will DROP. No more $1,600 an ounce.

We already have idiots on this site saying the price of gold will rise FOREVER. Not a good sign. :nervous:

 

[PlayHer Man]

The market can remain irrational far longer than anyone can remain liquid. This is a common saying amongst students of investing and human nature.

I think it is important to better explain what I mean by crash. A crash is a drop in value greater than 40% over a very short period of time. Similar to the 2008 crash in the markets, or the 2000 crash in the markets.

Markets are basically always irrational (when they're not rigged ). Either everyone is crapping their pants because "the sky is falling" OR people are on cloud 9 thinking the good life right around the corner. Most people are blithering emotional retards on a GOOD day.

Overvaluation can be a precursor to a crash, but manias are always a precursor to a crash. That is why I use the term mania prior to crashes. Overvaluations don't always end in crashes, but often end in "crumbles".

Using Japan as an example is perfect for this scenario, because they had a tech mania in 1990, experienced a crash.....and since the crash have experienced a demographic induced "crumble" as the average age of their population continues to shift to the older demographic. Not unlike what we can see here in the US with the baby boomers, provided of course that we don't have a large enough immigration rate to deflect those problems.

A great read on the Japanese problem....

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-04-02/japan-too-old-grow

We basically agree.

The aging population is a good point and interesting subject. Also the declining birth rate. Funny thing about that is immigration is the one thing that can boost the economy.. but most Americans are "anti-immigration" right now so that is only slowing the recovery.

All those "damn Mexicans" and other immigrants are actually the main reason for U.S. wealth and prosperity after the industrial revolution.

Ironically..

But to more drive the point home,

• Countries are in a currency war with no end in sight
• Supply/demand for gold is positioned for still greater gains
• Capital controls are being implemented through-out the world
• Bank failures are now showing that depositors or no longer as safe as they thought
• Wealth taxes are only just beginning
• An ongoing war on the productive sectors
• Ever increasing entitlements and incentives to be on them
• Gold and Silver demand continues to set records around the world, yet so few people still own any
• Central banks have become net buyers over the last two years

Allow me to translate that list:

-FEAR
-Because of FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
-FEAR
:yes: :yes:

There are just too many positives for gold at the moment, and I can't even think of them all off the top of my head. The fundamentals are still very strong and no end in sight at the moment. Some of these will turn the other way, but not before Joe six-pack gets involved to buy at the top. We still haven't seen the fear/greed show up yet. But it will come.

Time will tell. Markets are unpredictable. Not everything becomes a huge bubble then crashes violently. Sometimes we just see a gradual decline as people CASH OUT for more lucrative investments (other bubbles).

So we'll see...

 

[PlayHer Man]

We are printing money as a default on debt, not because of fear. In fact, most of that list is a result of the monetary system and how it works, not as a result of fear.

BTW, immigration isn't what makes a nation wealthy, a non-fiat currency with free markets and property rights is what makes a nation wealthy.

Immigration is a stop gap presented to help create more money into existence to fund the current debt levels.

Think of it this way. An indebted person is of little use to a bank, as they are already full on hooked up to the milk machine. Banks want more cattle to milk. Any nation in the world run by banks is facing immigration issues, for this simple reason.

I didn't say we are printing money out of fear.. I said all those things on your list are CAUSING fear which is resulting in people buying Gold--> OUT OF FEAR.

Regarding immigration.. YES it does make a nation wealthy.

One of the ways that the powers-that-be are trying to divide and conquer us, is to get poor people (and the middle class) to hate immigrants. This distracts attention from their own corrupt ways and provides a scapegoat for people to blame for their problems. Immigrants.. legal and illegal... actually increase the wealth of this country.

One reason our economy is tanking, is LACK OF GROWTH.. fueled by this anti-immigrant hysteria (and racism of course). We should actually be welcoming immigrants and growth in a bad economy, but instead we're turning them away, preferring instead to look inward and manage our decay and divide up what is left to the 'native born' who are often only a generation or two removed from immigration.:crackup:

Should you hate immigrants? NOPE. They are a boon to our economy. "But they are taking away our jobs!" people say. Really? You want to be a busboy that badly? :crackup:

The reality is, an economy has to grow to survive, and when populations stagnate, as ours has, the economy stagnates. :yes:

I've said in other threads that all wealthy countries need some form of cheap labor (aka underclass) to stay on top. Its a fact not my opinion.

 

[PlayHer Man]

People bought gold for the last 12 years not out of fear that money will be printed, but because it actually WAS printed. The money supply went up by a factor of 4, thus so has gold.

That isn't a result of fear, that is a move up as a result of actions. Does fear play some part? Sure, but if you think the bull market is over because there is a justified fear of money printing, then you are just plain wrong.

The money printing leads to FEAR of devalued currency. This is why people buy gold.. so they can "preserve their buying power." This is fear based.

And again, immigration does not create wealth. Shuffling people from one destination to another creates no wealth. Only production and services creates wealth. Of course, that point does not then make me a racist or hating immgrants, as you attempted to point out.

Yes.. but in order for "Production and Services" to exist.. there needs to be DEMAND for them. In order for demand to exist.. you need a growing population. In order to have a growing population.. you either need a high birth rate (which we lack) or a high immigration rate (which we lack).

More people means more EVERYTHING. We need to build more houses, roads, restaurants, bars, cars, etc. Less people means less demand for those things.

When the population doesn't grow... everything stagnates. Like revving your engine in neutral.

Saying the economy is tanking because there is no growth is like saying I'm moving down because I'm not moving up. :crackup:

The economy is tanking because of massive debt. There is no growth because there is too much debt weighing the Nation down.

Not exactly. Government debt doesn't really effect the economy. The U.S. has been in debt forever before anyone alive today was born (people act like its a new thing). The reality of our budget deficit and perpetual crises is that most of the money goes to pay ourselves, in the form of wealth transfer.. both from the rich to the poor and from one generation to the next.

In order to pay down the debt.. we need growth and recovery FIRST. Not the other way around.

The best we can do (and should do) in the next decade, is stop adding to the debt. Paying it down is an infantile fantasy.. and a basic LIE, used to get politicians elected :yes: (why people still listen to anything politicians say is mind blowing) All they care about is getting elected. Both the CONS and LIBS. They both suck and they're both wrong (in what they tell the public).

As the economy recovers and the government's income increases, we will see the deficits shrink and the ratio of the national debt to GDP decrease. And whoever is in the White House when this happens, will claim credit for it and say it was their idea (And the common man will believe them because the common man is a blithering idiot who never learns )

 

[PlayHer Man]

Fear based would be inducing mania level investment. That is the nature of fear. When people fear that the building they are in is burning down, they don't walk out orderly, they run.

Likewise with gold. It isn't fear until people are panicking into it. Right now it is just an expectation (and a limited one at that right now) that dollars will be devalued.

Expectation does not equate to fear. But yes, the fear will come, it just hasn't happened yet.

Its not really an all or nothing thing. You make it sound like if everyone isn't in a massive panic.. then their is no fear. There is absolutely fear.. just look at the tea party movement in 2010.

Everything runs on emotion. People do indeed FEAR losing their purchasing power and they are buying gold to avoid it. Just like you wear a seatbelt because you FEAR injury if you get in a car accident. You don't steal because you FEAR getting arrested. You don't watch porn at work because you FEAR losing your job.

YES.. the fear is there. Panic? No. Fear? Absolutely.

Demand exists without growth. Growth can increase demand sure, but you don't need population growth to increase demand. In fact, in a society that has a stable currency, you will see demand increase over time which is normal for a capitalist society as technological innovations occur and your money can purchase ever increasing amounts of goods and services.

But the demand still exists, and it also grows with innovations and no currency debasement. So no, immigration is not a requirement for growth.

This statement makes no logical sense. If you have 10 people in the whole world and 100 cars... how and why would the demand for cars increase?

When supply catches up with demand.. demand goes DOWN. This is a fact.

Tell that to Greece, Spain, Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, France, oh yeah, and Cyprus.

The debt is to "yourselves" only when you monetize the debt. Until then, it belongs to everyone who bought the bonds. That is why the current process of monetization (which devalues currency) is a war on savers.

This ABSOLUTELY affects the economy.

Fair enough... but this debt is not THE CAUSE of our current economic crisis.. as (like I said earlier) we have been in debt for over a century.

Economists have long argued (and been proven right) that when you have a recession, the best thing to do is spend your way out of it. It sounds dumb, but it works. In 1929, Hoover tried to cut back on spending, and this served only to make things worse. Roosevelt spent money on public works projects and got the country moving again.

The pattern has been repeated again and again over time. When government "primes the pump" it gets people working. When you cut government spending right now, it will throw a lot of people out of work, and increase the length and depth of the recession.

I know it sounds like "Liberal crazy talk" but facts are facts. :rock:

Most people don't understand this because they listen to the idiot media. And both Fox News and MSNBC are loaded with ignorant morons using fear tactics to boost ratings. So I'm not taking sides.

That's just it, the debt CANNOT be paid down. Such is the nature of fiat currency. Lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist. How does one pay the interest on their debt unless more is borrowed? One cannot. It will bring about deflation which the politicians will not tolerate as they will lose their jobs.

The best way to pay down to debt is to have more money. The best way to have more money is to increase the GDP.. which can only occur once the economy is moving again.

I agree with you on the politicians. However, the best thing we can do is remove the fiat system responsible for the exagerated booms and busts in the business cycle, and also responsible for the perpetual debt machine and the poor status of the economy.

Agree. Too bad that ain't never gonna happen. :crackup: :crackup:

Lets stick to realistic solutions.

I agree again with who will "take credit". However, the government's income won't increase so much as the debt is inflated away and the value stolen from the savers of society. And also those on fixed income, such as the elderly and lastly, those on minimum wage which always seems to go up last following a currency devaluation.

We have paid off large amounts of debt in the past during economic booms. It can be done provided we stop adding to the debt. We don't pay very high interest on our debt (last I heard). However, trying to pay it down while the economy is in the toilet is not realistic at all. At least not if we want a recovery any time soon.

 

[PlayHer Man]

If there was fear, then again, everybody you know would be buying gold. There would be lines at the coin shops.

No lines, few people own gold, then no fear.

The Tea Party isn't "fear", The Tea Party is a group of people who are wise enough to know that it makes sense to live within your means.

Ok.. its clear now that you are one of those people who just like to spit talking points without engaging in critical thinking.

Tell me what part of the following sentence is wrong.. then we can continue:

People do indeed FEAR losing their purchasing power and they are buying gold to avoid it.

I posted the above sentence in my last response to you. I want you to explain why it is untrue.

Because your vision is too narrow. The demand for cars would increase as people can afford to purchase more cars, through productivity gains.

Now they can afford a sports car for fun in the summer.

To understand these concepts, first you need to study economics and the supply/demand curves for money as well as for goods and services.

Once again from the top......Additional people do not create wealth, additional productivity creates wealth. There are many ways to create wealth without adding people.

So you're saying demand will increase because of consumerism? You're saying that if we only have 10 people on the entire planet.. the demand for cars, food and water will go UP constantly without a population increase?

I'm starting to doubt your intelligence. :crackup:

It absolutely IS the cause of our current crisis. This cycle repeats over and over again. The people get overindebted, and then .gov has to borrow enormous sums to inflate the debt away.

When the world overinvested in tech stocks, it brought us to this point in time. It was the same thing back in the great depression.

PEOPLE get overindebt and cause a crisis. Not the Government.

See? You just proved me right without even knowing it bro. :crackup:

And NO.. I'm not supporting large amounts of Government spending or anything the FED does here. Debt is very bad.. BUT Government spending is not the reason for the 2008 meltdown.

The Government is corrupt as f*ck. But we never blame the ignorant common man for his moronic life choices. He didn't have to buy a $500,000 house when he makes 25K a year.

If by economist, you mean Paul Krugman, then you have been lead astray.

All of the EU and the US have been trying to spend their way out of the recession, and yet here we are still, with massive employment.

Now, compare that to Iceland, which was smart enough to default outright on the debt and imprison the bankers......and they have recovered just fine.

Seriously, you have been led down the rabbit hole by Keynesian voodoo. Study Austrian economics and you will understand why the Keynes are lost as to why nothing is working in the current recession.

Again, look to the Iceland example. They recovered quickly because they defaulted instead of borrowed their way out of it.

Facts are Facts.

Here we go with the right-wing talking points straight from the idiot media (FOX NEWS right? Which are just as idiotic as the Liberal talking points from MSNBC)

If what you are saying is correct.. then the U.S. never would have recovered from the MANY past recessions we had. Are you oblivious to U.S. History?

Are you ready to engage in critical thinking now? Are you ready to learn something new? Or do you just want to be a wind-bag spitting Fox News talking points?

You still don't get it. Money only comes from debt. You can't pay down debt unless somebody borrows more debt. That is the issue with our fiat system and that is exactly why the Krugmanites fail in their Keynesian policies. For every dollar they spend, they have to borrow it first....which just makes the debt problem even larger.

Lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exists. Do you understand how money gets created?

Again with the mindless talking points you probably cut and paste from the Fox News website :crackup: :crackup:

Talking points show a lack of critical thinking and a knee-jerk reaction to a statement that makes you "feel bad" or "look bad". This is why the public is so willfully ignorant. Pride goeth before the fall bro. Check yourself.

We have paid down our debt in the past. Clearly you know next to nothing about U.S. history bro.

Again, we can't pay off the debt. Yes you can pay down limited amounts, but only during the secular bull markets that happen every 20 years when people are borrowing enormous sums of money into existence in lieu of the government....and even then the surpluses last for just the last five (of which Bill Clinton took credit for, but he had nothing to do with the economic cycle which led to it).

Again, you can NEVER pay down all debts because then there would be no money in existence. It's all borrowed into existence. ALL OF IT.

AGREE (finally).

And guess what? I never said you can pay down ALL debts. I actually said the exact thing you just said. I said the idea of paying off all the debt is an "infantile fantasy" (I used those exact words).

You are the one who said we need to "pay our debt" to stimulate the economy. Now you're saying we CAN'T pay it off. Make up your mind bro. :crackup: :crackup:

 

[PlayHer Man]

I realize you are becoming frustrated, but there is no reason to resort to insults. If you stop and consider how all money is borrowed into existence, you will better understand the economics and math behind the issue.

I agree with your statement, but I disagree with the SCOPE with which you apply it. There simply are not that many people who are buying gold out of fear. A very small portion of the population at best.

Therefore we have not yet hit the mania top, especially given how the devaluation continues without end.

You just keep repeating yourself with no thought process whatsoever.

People are buying Gold because they FEAR losing their purchasing power. END OF STORY. Prove that statement wrong or move on bro.

What I do find interesting though is how you say gold has topped and that it is only fear induced out of people losing purchasing power from their dollar.......yet you think we should print up enormous sums of cash to pull us out of recession (which by the way is exactly what we are attempting). So, that would make the gold-buyers fear a reality, and thus a continue run up in the gold price justified.

I looked at what has worked in HISTORY and suggested doing it again. Explain why that's bad bro.

More frustrations, so more insults. Settle down cupcake.

Not food and water, but yes overall demand will increase due to technological innovations.

What you haven't sat down and thought about yet is how individuals consume FAR MORE now than they did 100 years ago, 50 years ago or even 20 years ago.

Let me put it in more simple terms.

In a non-fiat based society, gold is money. But as technology expands and innovations continue, the prices of goods and services drop because we become more effecient at delivering them.

So the DEMAND for food and water will not rise then?

You're clearly very confused about how economics work bro. Make up your mind and find a consistent argument. Then get back to me bro.

When the prices of goods and services drop, we can purchase more. The result of technology is a slow deflation in the price og those goods and services, resulting in a populace with the ability to purchase more. It is the exact opposite of inflation, but it is a good thing when not associated with a debt induced boom like we have now as a result of the fiat currency.

The boom was induced by INDIVIDUAL debt. Just like the 1920's. Not Government debt. This has to be the 3rd time I have told you the same FACT and you ignore it. No thought process.. just repeating talking points over and over. :crackup:

Come on bro...

Fiat in general is causing the crisis, not the individuals. And no government spending is not the reason for the meltdown and the crisis. The root cause is fiat, as I have explained in the "lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist".

When you create currency and debt without creating the interest necessary to pay for it, you create an unstable monetary system that requires inflating or death. It is a well documented subject and all you need to do is look it up and read more.

Wrong. If individual people didn't borrow more than they can afford and buy into consumerism culture, the crisis would not have occurred. Bubbles are caused by PEOPLE who make moronic financial choices by trying to "get rich quick" following hyped up investments.

You are one of those people who think the common man can do no wrong. That is a very ignorant way to think.

More insults because you don't understand, and not shocking that you haven't addressed my point on Iceland (or other points) versus the rest of the world still flailing about in recession, by going the Krugman route....whereas I have addressed all of your points.

There is a concept called Kondratiev winter. Kondratiev was a famous Russian economist who was tasked with identifying "when capitalism would fail". When he did not deliver the answer that was wished, he was sent off to Siberia in a prison camp to die.

There are times when printing money works, that is when we are in Kondratiev Spring. Right now we are in Kondratiev winter (over indebted) and printing money doesn't work. Again, point to Iceland versus the rest of the world.

We have been in debt forever. Another FACT you ignore

What is most ironic is how you rage against the GOP in this thread, yet you support printing money to save the bankers as opposed to jailing them, letting the banks fail....and starting from scratch. Again, which solution worked better for the people so far? Iceland? Or Europe and the US?

So you have a hard-on for the GOP huh? If you support one political party over another you've already been listening to the idiot media too much bro (which is funny since you agreed with my other thread about why listening to the idiot media makes you an idiot :crackup: )

Where did I say I was against jailing the bankers? Putting words in my mouth makes you seem like you have an agenda. I'm just interested in telling the TRUTH.. not supporting some faggot political party.

Starting from scratch and other "revolution" ideas are just not realistic in the real world. When I say "not realisitc" I mean the U.S. Government isn't going to do it. Pigs will fly first :crackup: :crackup: I'm talking about REALISTIC solutions.. not fantasy land utopia solutions that will NEVER HAPPEN.

Step into the real world bro.

More insults, and yet you avoid answering or addressing any of my statements.

Look up fiat currency and how money is only borrowed into existence. Clearly you do not understand the concept, but it also appears you are afraid of engaging in a discussion about it at all.

Clearly you lack reading comprehension. Otherwise you would not be responding this way.

I never said we need to "pay our debt". I have continually said we cannot pay it. The problem here is that you view everything as either black or white, you are not thinking about what I am saying.

You assume that if I say borrowing is bad, that I am saying we must pay down the debt. I say we shouldn't borrow more, and that we can't pay down the debt. If you took a moment to understand the fiat currency and the "lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist" concept, then you would understand why both paths are a failure and the only answer is default if we want a quick recovery.

You said and I quote: "There is no growth because there is too much debt weighing the Nation down."

You later specified you were talking about Government debt. I pointed out that PERSONAL debt and a stagnating population is slowing economic growth.

Rather than addressing my argument.. you went straight for your talking points.

Bottom line, we need to eliminate the debt to recover quickly. But we don't have the cash to do it.

We need growth before we can eliminate debt. I explained why already. I pointed out HISTORICAL EXAMPLES.

You don't think.. you just spit talking points bro. Over and over.

Step back for a moment and forget your emotional response and understand what I am saying.


There are two ways out of this problem. One is to default outright like Iceland and swallow some pain now, but recover in less than 2 years.

The other option, is to keep printing more and more money and yes eventually recover (this will take a very long time due to the Kondratiev winter we are in ) and can cause serious damage as our Debt to GDP spirals out of control.

So the question remains.....do we want a fast recover? Or do we want a slow recovery?

Of course the first option for the FAST recovery is best. But (Like I've already said) its not REALISTIC because the U.S. Government will never do it.

So again.. lets stay in the real world and focus on realistic solutions that will actually happen.:yes:

 

[PlayHer Man]

People bought gold for the same reason in 2000. Yet it still rallied.
People bought gold for the same reason in 2001. Yet it still rallied.
People bought gold for the same reason in 2002. Yet it still rallied.
...Repeat until currenty year....

You keep missing/avoiding the point. When one person panics, nobody gives a $hit. When the world panics, then you have a fear based mania.

As I told you before, your vision on the price of gold lacks scope. You have not yet considered how few people are panicking, and how few people have bought gold.

And again.. you are failing to address the fact that we don't need "mass panic" for a bubble to exist or pop. All that needs to happen is a new bubble forms that people view as a "better investment" or "More lucrative investment" at which point gold investors CASH OUT.

Whenever there is a large scale of people cashing out.. the price drops.

You are only making my point. Historically it has taken two decades of printing before the economy improved.

Iceland did it in a year, by defaulting instead of printing.

You seem to believe the state of the economy is directly related to Government debt. I have already explained why this is false.

If you consider food and water to be the economy, then sure you would be right. But you know as well as I do that the economy is far more than that.

Again, my point stands that technology and productivity provides growth. Immigration is not the only way to grow.

I completely agree with you. But that has nothing to do with my point on how technology and productivity provide growth even during a stagnant population.

The population has to increase for the economy to grow. Otherwise it hits a peak and stagnates.

Show me a real world example of an economy booming without population growth. Then we can move on.

The common man is often wrong.

And yes, the crisis would still have occurred. Again, lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist. The nature of compound debt makes this problem repeat over and over again. The math is unavoidable.

Let me know when you are ready to learn about it, and then you will understand.

You seem to believe the state of the economy is directly related to Government debt. I have already explained why this is false.

We have been in debt since the Federal Reserve inititated the fiat debt-based currency. There were periods in time prior when there was debt, but not always. The implementation of a debt based currency however, sealed the deal for good.

100% True.

We agree on how the "system" works. However, the PEOPLE have to make idiotic choices for this "system" to continue its flawed design. That's where we disagree.

It starts with the choices we make every day. You seem to believe it starts with the Government.

Now you are just making more insults, assumptions and attacks. I agree the media is terrible, but your error is in assuming my information comes from the media. If you backed off of the insults and emotions, you would have an opportunity to understand the process of a debt based currency. And then you would have your answers.

You don't realize you are actually helping the banksters when you print your way out of a problem.

Again.. You seem to believe the state of the economy is directly related to Government debt. I have already explained why this is false.

Tell me, would you support a full default and jailing of the banksters in the US similar to how Iceland did it? Why or why not?

I would support full default.

I would also support jailing any bankers who broke the law.

However, people made stupid choices. They signed on the dotted line. People should not be jailed for leading stupid people down the wrong path however. Its your job as an individual to be educated before you sign your life away trying to live up to the Joneses.

The US Government has already defaulted twicein the last century alone. Why wouldn't they do so now?

And printing money is a default, whether you realize it or not. The difference is a hard default through bankruptcy fixes the economy faster.

Again.. You seem to believe the state of the economy is directly related to Government debt. I have already explained why this is false.

I'm not sure why you insist on throwing insults?

I did say we have too much growth, but it's not just government debt. I specified that governments have to step in and create the 11th dollar so that the people can pay on their debts.

There are no "talking points", that is just reality and the inescapable math of the fiat currency system.

Again.. You seem to believe the state of the economy is directly related to Government debt. I have already explained why this is false.

As I said before, the US Government has already defaulted twice in this century alone.

If you agree that is the best option, why would you not support it? Do you not believe you are the boss of your own Government?

You are not "the boss" of your own government. Not if the majority of the people in your country (or even voting district) disagree with you.

Default is the best option. It also ain't gonna happen because no want wants to go through the pain. The idiot media will scare people with their typical "the sky is falling" doom and gloom ignorance. Any politician who supports it will never get re-elected.

Again.. we need to live in reality.

 

[PlayHer Man]

How does a bubble form if there is not a mass to inflate it? You are missing the point of how bubbles work.

Bubbles work on fear and greed combined with a mass of people. People don't just "cash out" on emotions. They follow them to the end.

The very nature of a bubble is that people violently bid up the price for something past the fundamental value. It isn't the selling that causes the drop.....it is the lack of buyers. They have ALL bought in.....there are literally no buyers left.

In order to have "buyers" you need "sellers".

No one can buy if no one is selling. This means.. during bubbles.. the SMART people are SELLING.

The state of the economy is a function of many things. But the DIRECTION of the economy is directly related to the debt saturation levels of the people and businesses, and the response that Government takes to those situations.

If they choose to default through printing, you will have two decades of pain. If they choose a hard default like Iceland, you will greatly shorten the time-frame.

All of history is on my side for this. Currently we are 13 years into a secular bear market which started in 2000 with the tech bubble crashing. Only just now are the markets again reaching their 2000 valuations on a NOMINAL level, not even on a real level.

Of course, add to that how unemployment is still rampant and other signals of a weak economy alongside market overvaluations and it's a no brainer that all of the printing over the last 13 years has done jack-$hit.

Enter Iceland. Smart enough to default and jail the bankers. Recovery in less than two years.

The folly of debt.

The national debt, at $16 trillion, comes to about $53,000 per citizen, or a hefty mortgage on each of us. But like any mortgage, it doesn't have to be paid off all at once, but over time. And like with the GDP ratio, one way to reduce the amount of debt per citizen is to increase the number of citizens. As the population increases, these amounts per person go down. Growth is ultimately the best way out of recession, not cutting back.

From 1980-2000, the US population went from 226 million to 281 million for a growth rate of 24%.

The market however, went from 759 to 11500, for a growth of 1415%.

Why? Technological advances. People were able to afford computers with power now that didn't exist or were prohibitively expensive just a decade prior.

Unless you thinkt he 24% growth in population was fully responsible for the growth in the stock market?

And for consumption?

The growth of the economy would match the growth of the population if individual people didn't go into DEBT to "live up to the Joneses". This is why population increase (my argument) is better than increasing demand via consumerism (your argument). Why? Because consumerism causes waste and DEBT.

Again, no, you misunderstand what I am saying. While the Government did start with the poor decision to enter a fiat currency, the system is flawed REGARDLESS of the decisions of people.

This is the part you still have not grasped yet. Lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist.

That borrowed money compounds until far more money is owed than is in existence. This guarantees a secular bear market that can be fixed through two decades of painful money printing.....or two years of default.

It can be permanently fixed by eliminating fiat currency.

Ain't gonna happen.. for the 500th time. Need a Q-tip?

Lets stick to realistic options.

You still don't get it. Lend 10 for 11 when only 10 exist. When people sign on for this loan, regardless of the amount. They have been swindled. There is no escape unless someone borrows that 11th dollar into existence.

The root of your misunderstanding is because you have not yet studied money and how it is created. This is why you continue to make erroneous claims instead of asking questions such as how the monetary system works and why the lend 10 for 11 fiat theme is causing these problems.

You lack reading comprehension skills. I already total you I agree with this. So I don't know why you keep saying it.

You are absolutely the boss of your government in aggregate with your citizens. What you say in aggregate will happen.

The media says nothing about the sky falling, have you seen CNBC lately? Everything is roses according to them.

The pain exists whether it's two decades or two years. The reason that we won't allow people to default is because it's bad for incumbents getting re-elected. They always choose to kick the can down the road until it's too heavy to kick any farther.

I already said this. See my comments on the "Idiot media" and "faggot political parties" above.

They print today to save only today, at the expense of tomorrow. Two years of pain won't get them re-elected. But it will fix the economy. Those bad debts can actually begin getting defaulted on. It started with the Tea Party but now it comes around again in May with the debt ceiling.

Once we stop borrowing more money, we set ourselves up for the much wiser hard default on the bad loans through-out the economy. Or, we could just keep racking up the debt and let the bad investments fester and keep a true recovery just out of reach.

Here are some FACTS to consider. If you attempt to argue with facts.. then I don't know what to tell you:

1. Our nation has been in debt pretty much since its inception.

2. We very rarely have "paid down" the debt by very much, since WW II, except briefly in the Clinton years.

3. Decreasing the deficit, in the past, was accomplished by increasing revenues, not by cutting spending. Spending, historically, has always gone up. The idea that we can "cut spending" is nonsense - at best, we can arrest its growth rate, somewhat.

4. Our National Debt, while large, is financed at some of the lowest interest rates in history.

5. Over time, our country outgrows its debt, as our economy grows and as inflation eats into it.