The Official FOREX Thread

[Bible_Belt]

Angelus, I notice that you are more of a trend trader. How do you distinguish a trend from sideways chop? Are you buying the first pullback after resistance is broken? The schonfeld day trading model is to own the stocks that are up the most on the day in a strong market, and to be short the weakest stocks of the day in a weak market. Schonfeld guys try to buy high... and sell higher.

After a breakout pulls back from the high, I would look for the Fib retracement and try to buy as it was still going down, at about 30% off the most recent high. Hopefully, then I would have the 38 and 50 fib line as support. Does this method sound viable trading forex?

 

[arglebargle]

I have a question about PIP spreads.

Do the spreads remain fairly constant or will they be adjusted during news releases, speeches, etc?

 

[AngelusPUA]

If the market is going sideways and all my indicators tell me it’s going sideways I wait, I don’t put money in the market just to have it in there, I wait for all 4 of my indicators line up and then I invest, if they don’t line up I won’t invest that day. Thing is I never really get a sideways market because I only trade on the 6 most volatile hours of the day.

You mean sell as its dropping? Explain what you mean again.

The first Fibonacci line is weak and it offers minimum resistance in my experience so don’t rely on that line to hold.

P.S. Pip spreads don't change on GFTFOREX but some companies do change them. Most companies offer 1-3 pip spreads on the majors and when they change they never go above 3.

 

[Morphiex]

what kind of indicators ?

 

[Bible_Belt]

You mean sell as it's dropping? Explain what you mean again.

No, I mean buy as it's dropping. Again, I have no forex experience, but this is how talented nasdaq/nyse/cme traders enter trades. They sense when the crowd is about to turn around, and try to catch the last of the panic sellers. I saw three very average rednecks make a million bucks each in 1999 trading the nasdaq volatility this way. My own best trades all went into the red very briefly before going into the green. When you buy when it looks bad, you get a good price. When the stock is obviously going up, no one wants to sell and you have to go "outside the offer," paying a higher price to just get traded. The problem with software simulators is that they cannot simulate how difficult it can be to get filled in a fast-moving market.

 

[Bible_Belt]

fwiw, most indicators use last trade price as part of the calculation. Because of this, most indicators will always be lagging. Price action is reflected on the chart and time & sales prints, so the indicators are just another way of viewing past price movement.

The only forward-looking indicators afaik are Fibonaccis, Elliot Waves, and maybe Gann lines, but I have little experience with Gann stuff. The 12345 eliot wave cycle is amazingly accurate, imo:

http://www.benbest.com/business/elliot.gif

If the 38% Fib is weak, is the 50% retracement better at predicting where support will be?

 

[OfficeSpace]

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/4041/eurousdtk5.gif

That's a screenshot I took of my demo platform with trend lines and candlestick charting. Just for those wondering how a trading platform looks like.

As you can see from the chart and trend lines, in the short term, the Euro looks bullish, but probably only for several pips before a reversal will occur.

 

[Bible_Belt]

It looks like sideways chop to me, but I am no Forex expert.

 

[OfficeSpace]

It looks like sideways chop to me, but I am no Forex expert.

I'm no FOREX expert either. But from what I can see (It's just a guess.. I'm not expert) The Euro MIGHT go up as high as 1.2765. I saw earlier on a FOREX news site speculations of the Euro going even as high as 1.2780 or above, so I'll just wait and watch. Too bad the market is closed right now.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Most of what worries me about that chart is that the intraday range looks to be less than 200 pips, probably 150 or so. That means that to catch a good run of 100 pips, you would need to capture more than half of the day's movement? That is no small accomplishment. My only experience is with stocks, but if I could net 1-2 points trading 1000 share lots, that was 1-2 grand and a good day. But those stocks were often up 5-10 points on the day. A currency is not going to move 10% in one day, so forex trading may be entirely different than stocks in regard to trading breakouts?

One thing I know is that I am not trusting any Internet bucket shop. I am only routing trades through the cme Globex. When the new CME system comes online, they will put the bucket shops out of business, so I might as well start with the cme. IB and MB are the two brokers I know and trust. IB is cheaper, but MB has better software and service so I will probably go with them.

 

[arglebargle]

I think if you made 100 pips/month consistently you'd be doing very good.

 

[SELF-MASTERY]

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/4041/eurousdtk5.gif

That's a screenshot I took of my demo platform with trend lines and candlestick charting. Just for those wondering how a trading platform looks like.

As you can see from the chart and trend lines, in the short term, the Euro looks bullish, but probably only for several pips before a reversal will occur.

I'm also using dealbook, how do you like it?

 

[AngelusPUA]

Neon the price looks to be going up but I would need to look at other charts, you should at least have 3 charts open for each currency pair. You shouldn't be using daily charts because for people who trade with daily charts a lot of equity is needed. You should use......

Either

5min, 30min, 2hr

Or

15min, 1hr, 4hr

Also I recommend you the indicators in the trading plan below.

 

[AngelusPUA]

Beginners Trading Plan​

Currencies:
-USD/CHF
-GBP/USD

Charts:
-Use 3 separate charts for each currency 15min, 1hr and 4 hr.
-Candle charts.

Indicators:
-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with the period set to 5 (To change the period in the Dealbook platform just double click on the EMA and click on the ‘inputs’ tab in the window that pops up. From there type in ‘5’ under ‘Period’)
-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with the period set to 10
-Relative Strength Index (RSI) with period set to 14
-Stochastic Oscillator with period set to 10

Time frame:
-6pm-3am (this is Melbourne time which is at GMT+10)
-Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

Before you buy:
-Check previous day highs and lows and plot them on your graphs (light green, orange these act as a mild resistance and support)
-Check weekly highs and lows and plot them on your graph (Green, red these act as a stronger resistance and support)
-The point of having to EMA lines is to wait for them to cross, when they cross it’s a buy or sell signal depending on where they cross. The RSI and Stochastic are there to confirm either a buy or sell.

Trading rules

-Stop loss order = 30 pips

Entry Rules:

Buy if:

-The 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA and both stochastic lines are heading up (do not enter if the stochastic lines are already in the overbought territory)
-RSI is greater than 50

Sell if:

-The 5 EMA crosses below the 10 EMA and both stochastic lines are heading down AND (do not enter if the stochastic lines are already in oversold territory)
-RSI is less than 50

Exit Rules:

Exit when the 5 EMA crosses the 10 EMA in the opposite direction of your trade OR if RSI crosses back to 50.

I got this plan from a website, tweaked it a little and addes some things to make it perfect for beginner traders.

 

[AngelusPUA]

You mean sell as it's dropping? Explain what you mean again.

No, I mean buy as it's dropping. Again, I have no forex experience, but this is how talented nasdaq/nyse/cme traders enter trades. They sense when the crowd is about to turn around, and try to catch the last of the panic sellers. I saw three very average rednecks make a million bucks each in 1999 trading the nasdaq volatility this way. My own best trades all went into the red very briefly before going into the green. When you buy when it looks bad, you get a good price. When the stock is obviously going up, no one wants to sell and you have to go "outside the offer," paying a higher price to just get traded. The problem with software simulators is that they cannot simulate how difficult it can be to get filled in a fast-moving market.

If you buy as it drops and Fib resistance doesn't hold you lose.

I would wait till it hits Fib support if it stays there for a while and the indicators look good I would buy.

I wouldn't buy as it is heading to fib support lines because a lot of the times it falls straight through.

 

[OfficeSpace]

Neon the price looks to be going up but I would need to look at other charts, you should at least have 3 charts open for each currency pair. You shouldn't be using daily charts because for people who trade with daily charts a lot of equity is needed. You should use......

Either

5min, 30min, 2hr

Or

15min, 1hr, 4hr

Also I recommend you the indicators in the trading plan below.

Oh ****.. My mistake.. I'm used to using a java chart in my web browser and didn't notice that I was looking at it from a daily perspective... I looked at it in the 5 min and it shows bearish. But in the 15 min it doesn't really indicate much... So yeah, I would probably stay away. Thanks for the good input Bible_belt and AngelusPUA! Hehe, I'm learning already.

 

[SELF-MASTERY]

Angelus what are thoughts on using the 1min chart or the tick?

 

[AngelusPUA]

I don't like 1min charts they move to fast I usually go with the

15min, 1hr, 4hr charts

 

[radronOmega]

Angel,

Did you ever need to do normal stock exchange transactions before you got a hang of things and moved to forex? Or did you just start right off the bat into forex investing?

 

[AngelusPUA]

You people make me sick all I did here was try to help people become successful I never asked for money never asked for anything in return. Not once, I took time out of my schedule and helped people out privately and on the public forum. I gave good advice on trading that only somebody who genuinely rades would know.

Then to be ridiculed like this by a self absorbed prick like Krassus because I wouldn't send him my picture.

What kind of a low life runs IP checks and tries to publicly attack a stranger because I did not send him a picture of me?

I have nothing to prove to any of you I don't need to show you my credentials or prove who I am I think people would take solace in the fact that they are receiving good advice and being inspired to get into a business that can make them millionaires.

You will notice I never asked anybody here for anything I had an idea to help people the way that I was never helped to sucked and I get bombarded with requests to prove my identity by Krassus.

I have never and will never demean myself to prove who I am. I made over 200 posts giving FOREX advice to people.

If you ever want advice as good as the advice I gave on FOREX you will have to pay a trader thousands. Just the fact that I know what I know speaks volumes about who I am……..