Way too much over-analyzing going on here, but from a learning perspective this is good because it will teach you where you went wrong and help you in the future.
One common theme I always see here is guys posting about how the dates prior to the friction went very well. Understand that is from your perspective. You have no idea how much the girl enjoyed herself because what a woman says and what she does are two ENTIRELY different things. I don't even listen to what women say most of the time now.
Not kissing her was literally your kiss of death.
She now has formed an opinion of you and once a girl has her mind made up its very hard to change it.
I get why the people who have replied are telling you to do certain things such as no contact until the game on Sunday; but honestly that's not going to help you at this point.
No contact only works when a girl has a healthy to sky high interest in you. If you wander off into the abyss it will just make her transition to move on that much easier. Now I'm not saying you should keep hitting her up, because you shouldn't in this case since you will be seeing her Sunday. But just understand in general NC is a strategy used to help you mentally and emotionally move on from a chick. Its not intended to be a strategy to elevate her interest.
You have nothing to lose by asking her to hang out one more time, so I would hit her up a couple days after the game and see how that goes.
I don't like the idea of asking her out on Sunday for Thursday. Asking a girl out too far in advance when she has low interest to start dramatically increases the chance of a flake or cancel.
If I were you, since this is already more or less a lost cause, I would:
-flirt with her hard-core at the game, but obviously don't spend all your time with her.
-would not call her the following week at all..... this MIGHT get her curious again or it might make her forget about you, but I think we all agree this chick thinks she has you figured out, so she's likely expecting you to call a day or two after to ask her out.
-call the week after, just to re-engage contact with her and see how she responds. You should be able to tell right off the bat if her interest has changed for the better.
If it has, ask her out and you might have pulled the rabbit out of the hat.
Mentally I would chalk this up as a lost cause and just go the experiment route and see what you can get to work.
PIMP