Seeing red cars and confirmation bias.

Warrior74

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You ever notice how when you get a new car you start seeing that car everywhere? Now friends, I don't know the name of that phenomenon (someone help me out here, I failed to google it), but I will say this it's a helpful tool in your arsenal.

What you focus on is what you notice. The reason this came into my mind is that I've been thinking a lot of my business (which is marketing/media) and the more I read and study my local market, the more opportunities I see. I figured the same applied to women. I honestly have been so in my head lately, that women have been the last thing on my mind when I'm out and about.

For those of you in the game, the next time you are out, notice how many women are checking you. The more you look for it, the more you will see it. I noticed lately when I'm out and about how many women actually have been checking out the one like Warrior. The more I noticed it the more seemed to be actually doing it. So today, I called out this girl seating us at lunch. When we left, I asked, "were you checking me out?" She said " yah, I didn't think you saw me". More women are probably checking you out than you think.


On to the next topic. This one I think is a plague for the MM forum here. Confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.wikepedia
I think it's going to be the downfall of the men's rights movement and this forum. Once you see everything through this lens with out the ability to see through other points of view, you've lost the ability to full judge. Again my example leads back to work.

I work with a client who did not believe he could earn money for his business online. He believed it never worked, SEO was bunk, ad words were bunk and every time I brought it up, he would point to some article or some story or magaizine showing how it would never work. Even when the articles were giving information on how to avoid running bad campaigns or doing poor SEO he would only see the part that he wanted to see. It took me actually doing it and proving it to him for him to see the value. Even now he poo-poos it but will conceed that I "get lucky" so he'll pay me to do it for him. He has a bias and he uses all available information to confirm that basis regardless of what the facts show.

The thing I am learning in my study of marketing is this. What are the facts and how can we test this campaign. If you cannot measure and test and if you fail to interpret your test factually and without bias, then you will fail. I personally hate Walk ons on websites. You know, those little videos with a spokesperson walking on and talking. I totally refused to put them on a client's site. But you know what? He showed me some data that pointed toward them working with people in his market. I had to let go of my bias and deal with the idea that this might actually work. We are going to test it. We'll try it with and without and see what happens.

Here in this forum. We take articles, stories, personal anecdotes and constantly fit them to our bias. And I've seen the echo chamber here intensify over the last few years. To the point that there isn't confirmation bias about game, or techniques, or how to improve, but only the men's rights/feminism debate. It's completely dominated the MM forum to the point that I really can't see much value here any more. I've discussed this in PMs with more than a few people. I would urge some of you to really examine your beliefs, mindsets and biases and try to get an objective look on where you stand and who you are listening to. I would urge you to look at the full set of facts before knee jerk responding. I would urge deep thought and reflection. I really don't expect this to fall on anything other than deaf ears, but if one person thinks about it, I feel like I helped.

Just remember this. Always ask yourself, "Is what I am reading, doing, exposing myself to, adding value and happiness to my life and helping me achieve my goals?". If the answer is no, take a break from it. And that being said, break time. Be back later kiddos.
 

wait_out

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Warrior74 said:
Here in this forum. We take articles, stories, personal anecdotes and constantly fit them to our bias. And I've seen the echo chamber here intensify over the last few years. To the point that there isn't confirmation bias about game, or techniques, or how to improve, but only the men's rights/feminism debate. It's completely dominated the MM forum to the point that I really can't see much value here any more. I've discussed this in PMs with more than a few people. I would urge some of you to really examine your beliefs, mindsets and biases and try to get an objective look on where you stand and who you are listening to. I would urge you to look at the full set of facts before knee jerk responding. I would urge deep thought and reflection. I really don't expect this to fall on anything other than deaf ears, but if one person thinks about it, I feel like I helped.

Just remember this. Always ask yourself, "Is what I am reading, doing, exposing myself to, adding value and happiness to my life and helping me achieve my goals?". If the answer is no, take a break from it. And that being said, break time. Be back later kiddos.
I have always respected your posts, I'm sorry to see you go, and I agree 100%. So mission accomplished Warrior, stand easy.

I may check out of the bar here too. I've sent some PMs too to be honest, this place is painful these days, but I don't see it changing. I can't actually discuss what's going on my life because there is too much drama/knee-jerk and negative people around.

Always ask yourself, "Is what I am reading, doing, exposing myself to, adding value and happiness to my life and helping me achieve my goals?"
That's such an important question. For myself lately, no. I'm going to jump out of this place for a while, because you're right, and I need to value my time more. Back in 2014, maybe.

Take care.
 

Boilermaker

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Warrior74 said:
Completely agreed. It's a downward spiral. Here's a typical day for a +40 year old MM contributor like:

Read news. Find some sketchy article that can be used as food for feminist bashing. Post it here. Bítch and Moan.

Confirmation is bias isn't just here, it's everywhere. And it will always be around. Here's the page in Wiki with all the cognitive biases,

if what you want is isolated/described it'll be on this list.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

My favorite is the Hostile media effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_media_effect

Selective perception is closest I could find; but maybe there's a sharper one desribing your effect:

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_perception)

Would the knuckleheads in our forum read it and understand it? Hmmm, don't think so.
 

taiyuu_otoko

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There's about a million bits of information hitting our senses every second. Our conscious minds can only handle about fifty or so bits.

That means everything else gets shuffled directly into our subconscious. So naturally, what we deem as emotionally important (new cars, old wounds, girls that are close to our "perfect" match) tend to stand out from all the noise.

As far as this site goes, plenty of people use it to feed their confirmation bias.

Plenty of guys have thrown in the towel, whether they know it or not, and come here to find other like minded folks who will validate their views of women, the world etc.

One way to tell if you're getting something out of this place is to read your own posts from a year or so ago. If you're still spouting the same stuff, then it might be time to take a hike.

But if you seem to be getting better at life, or developing more useful frame of mind, then it's worth it.

Of course, with something as emotionally powerful and involved as male / female relationships, it's tough to separate your conscious goals from your unconscious goals.

Easy to get sucked into something that will end up just wasting your time and leaving more bitter than ever.
 

Deep Dish

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Warrior74 said:
You ever notice how when you get a new car you start seeing that car everywhere? Now friends, I don't know the name of that phenomenon (someone help me out here, I failed to google it).
It's called the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon.
 

Boilermaker

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Yes, he's right, another name of the same thing is "frequency illusion" apparently:

Copied from this page below:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

Wikipedia said:
Frequency illusion – the illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly appears "everywhere" with improbable frequency (see also recency illusion).[29]
 

Slickster

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Good post Warrior. It sucks that this place has sunken to the state it is in. Was it inevitable? How many frustrated men can you gather in one place and still keep a positive message?

The only thing that will keep this place alive in a positive sense is if members such as yourself, wait out, etc, speak up when negative crap gets posted. Too many times when someone does speak up they are left alone without any backup. The good parts of this site are worth fighting for. Hopefully the good guys around here won't get bullied away by a handful of losers.

I thought the following quote was appropriate for the current state of the forum. Author's name purposely excluded.

..'that ever-gnawing inner doubt as to whether you're right.' If you don't have that, if you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated. The greatest crimes in history have been perpetrated by such religious and political and racial fanatics, from the persecutions of the Inquisition on down to Communist purges and Nazi genocide.
 

wait_out

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I need space to reset. If I come back here it will be to set a positive example, and stay above arguing. This site was inspirational to me once because there were some talented writers with a lot of literary flair, positivity, humor, and insight. If I am back, I will be trying to hold myself to those standards, not get sucked into the melee.

Anyway I won't sign off on a negative note, so here's something that inspired me today. A good DJ has to be about people, not just pvssy, or even themselves -- the darker the times get, the greater the opportunity to shine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXRmJyIyJbM

The Man in Black, of course. Cheers and I wish each and every one of you happiness for this brand new year, friends and foes alike.
 
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