Re:
Although ANY team can win on any given sunday, when there's a HUGE disparity between teams and talent, SCHEDULE and the eventuality of getting home field advantage DOES play a huge role in the outcome of the Superbowl Winner. The Pats are still owned by Denver, but fortunately they played them early. Yes, it hurts we were beat @ home, and their incredibly fast defense wasn't much for us to work with, BUT, and this is the bigger part, if the only other time we have to face them is at home, and not in the post season, the pats will probably do well, and make it as the AFC Champs.
Here's my opinion...
Indy. Yes, they have Peyton, but Indy has lost Corey Simon, the DLineman who helped prop up the D Last year. Their moving down the ranking in Run Defense, their already not-so-great corners are banged up quite badly, and their Run game, although Addai and Rhode are good, isnt' playoff or superbowl worthy. In this case, a dollar can't be made from 2 half dollars like Addai and Rhodes. Addai + Rhodes DOES NOT equal Edge, a guy who could pound out tough yards, unlike Addai and Rhodes, but also break a big one. Those losses are FAR greater than what people perceived New England to have lost.
Pitt. Their D works, but if their Offense can't stay on the field long enough to get them rejuvenated, they will constantly be tired, and therefore, exploited, Their corners, although good, have been exploitable. Obviously their RUN D is solid. But of greatest concern is the loss of Gadget and trick plays that were afforded by Antwan Randle El, the Tough Yards, by Bettis, and the multitude of injuries suffered by Ben. With a lagging Rushing game (Willie Parker + Bettis accounted for over 200 yards per game, most games, not now though), Ben is forced to do what he can't do best yet, Pass. He's great, but his main targets are Heath Miller and Hines Ward; that's it, and that's not enough. Wilson is ok against a bad D, but he's nothing special; the 49ers let him go. And Nate Washington, a rookie, emerges from time to time, but again, against Bad D's.
Jacksonville is a replica of the Pats, in many respects. The 1-2 punch of Jones-Drew and Taylor is strong and growing, the WRs, albeit inexperienced (yes Reggie Williams is still inexperienced), are solid in many respects and can dwarf MOST cb's. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford are solid, but with no clear veteran, they'll suffer the same fat the Pats did in Denver last year when Branch and Givens couldn't get open, and Byron won't be able to find an open WR. I do like them to go far, and challenge the Pats. Losing Mike Peterson hurts ALOT, that is akin to the loss the Pats suffered on losing Rodney Harrison in the middle. I won't pretend they'll give up a lot of rushing yards with Stroud and Henderson in the middle, but it weakens them.
Denver. Plummer is STILL going to implode worse than he has... If anything, it was the punter who opened the dam for the Broncos to get through. They fought a tough game, their Defense is fast, they get pressure, and can rarely be run on. The WR's are growing in sync with Plummer, but Plummer still doesn't project to be a SB QB, OR, even be able to handle a better D. Their Running game is good, and Bell works well in that system after all these years. But it's Plummer who concerns me most, and he did have his fumbles and INTS.
SD. Rivers, albeit has spent 2 full years on the bench. Gates, wonderful. McCardell, serviceable. And LT, you can't say enough about. Their front 4 is great, and they have good LBs, but that's it. W/out gates and LT, this team is JUST ok. And beating PITT demonstrated how bad PITT is playing. I won't full disrespect SD, b/c I enjoy watching them, but you can SHUT down Gates, and they were better when a VET like Brees was there. He's a beast, but they no downfield, speed threats.
KC. Forget it. No opinion needed. They're in rebuilding mode, but not far off. Maybe a year or 2 and they'll go deep. LJ has alot in the tank. Eddie would make a great #2 with a stud #1 opposite him. Tony G is great, too. But their D is still not good enough to stop a SB caliber team. And Dante Hall's occasional contribution isn't enough.
Now onto the Pats, of course, I'm a Homer, but I try to be objective based on the whole team concept, as opposed to studs and duds.
The Pats have, in my opinion, arguably the three best RB's through and through. Of course, there's no LT here, but LT is a speed beast, did anyone see him dunk Madieu Williams into the ground, twice vs Cincy? Dillon is healthy and can pound down the line. And Faulk catches everything thrown at him. Everyweek that goes by, greater chemistry develops between Brady and his receivers: Jackson, Gabriel, Brown, Caldwell, and now Gaffney. They also have some of the best TE's in the game in Watson, Graham, Dave Thomas, and Garret Mills, all pass-catching and blocking TE's (Dave Thomas was Vince Youngs' favorite target, and if he can catch balls from that Uncle Rico Throwing fool, he's in heaven with Brady). The defense is solid. They work on getting pressure up front and having CB's and safeties in the right spot, and give up having a pure shut down corner. Their entire line is made up of successful FIRST round picks; there are not busts on the D-line. The line-backers, although OLD, are vets. They rarely committ penalties, foolishly or otherwise, and make complete tackles, between Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, Seau, and with Harrison helping, that's just scary to spell. For Fantasy purposes, it is difficult to draft the LBERS of the Pats b/c in any given week, ONE will be a superstar. The Secondary isn't perfect, and can let up big plays, but the defensive mind of belichick DOES help. Samuel, Harrison, Hobbs (playing hurt), Artrell Hawkins, and Randall Gay (unless I"m mistaken and he's out for the season), are good enough to hang with MOST receivers. They dominated Cincy, and forced MIAMI to throw wes walker all day while Chambers, the most fierce threat was shutdown.
People might have naysayed that LOSING certain players would effect this team, but it hasn't.
What has Vinatieri done for their new team? Perhaps the missed FG's could have been avoided, but most of the misses by Gostowski were b/c of the horrendous field condition, something perhaps Vinatieri COULD have avoided, but they haven't lost by only 3 points.
What has been heard of Willie McGinest? He got his pay day and was replaced by Seau, perhaps cut from the same mold. Willie's sacks went to Colvin now and Jarvis Green.
What of David Givens? He hasn't eclipsed 50 yards, and he's NOT the favorite target of Young, that's for sure. he had value BECAUSE of brady and the system. Nothing has since been heard of from David Patten either, who's either ridin' pine with Washington, or will/soon to be cut.
And lastly, Branch. Personally, the Pats fleeced Seattle, who will regret their massive spending, since it will prevent them from growing into a contender, instead of a pretender. Branch was Brady's favorite, but Brady is cheating on him with Gabriel, Brown, and soon to be Jackson. Branch won't amount to much in Seatlle, since they already paid Burleson over 50 million, and Branch got somewhere near 40, with a 13 million dollar signing bonus. Losses on the OLINE hurt, too. Seattle is good, but they moved BACKWARD, not forward. The fear of SA running through and over them opened the field up for the receivers, and Jackson and Branch don't command enough respect like a TO or SS such that they will place more in the secondary than the box. Hasselback is good, but it takes a little more from a team to rise above their best and become truly great. I do like SEA, but they're peaking...
The mistake ALOT of teams make is getting saddled with the mentality of keeping a team together so long that it kills the cap and prevents them from repeating. The Pats ownership recognizes this. People might hate it, but as long as Kraft owns the team, his goals is WINNING first, and players SECOND. They know what they want and need, and they won't sacrifice their principles or the system for an individual, that's how so many teams never make it.
A-UNit
