Originally posted by diplomatic_lie
And those few, developed countries have billions of dollars of funding in programs specifically designed to predict future events and work on them. This isn't a depression, you're talking about potential anarchy and armageddon.
Now on the other hand, what expertise do you offer in contrast to the government departments?
I don't doubt there are people looking into the problem, but can you provide details (name of program, funding, etc)? The way politics work in this country (and most others) makes it nearly impossible to solve these problems. All elected officials have term limits, during which they'll do their best to serve their constituent's interest. And constituents (like you and me) generally care about their present day well-being. Americans are too used to instant gratification; they want the best as soon as possible, and they'll reject any politician with future-minded policies that cut into their current quality of life.
I'm not saying armageddon will happen, what I am saying the overall quality of life in this country will keep deteriorating at a faster and faster rate.
As for my research, I've analyzed over 100 articles & websites on both sides (the doomsayers and the naysers). While that doesn't make me an expert, I think my opinion is fairly well-informed. It'll take too long to list them all, but here's a select few from National Geographic, MSNBC, and the Washington Post :
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6249750/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5080-2004May31.html
Originally posted by MetalFortress
Have you studied both sides of the story, Nibun? Or have you just studied the side of it you are advocating? Why not also say that the US presidency is one big huge illuminati conspiracy?
You can't gauge alternative energy sources now by their development in the past 20 years, because they haven't been the focus of so much research and development. From hydrogen to biodiesel to ethanol, even people running diesel vehicles off of old vegetable oil, a lot more is being done than has been in the past. Hybrid car technology will become a tool for more than just tech geeks and liberal nutjobs, as companies like Honda and Toyota (yes, the Prius still blows) spread out the technology into everyday sedans, vans trucks and SUVs, and even exotic supercars that today take a ton of gas. If alternate energy sources have even 1/3 the concentration put into them for the next ten years that the internet has had for the last ten years, I think the "oil crisis" will be averted.
Yes, I have studied and debated on both sides (and I even won all my debates on the naysayer side too). So I'm familiar with most of the arguments for either side. And please, I'm not accusing our president (or anyone) of conspiracy. They are doing exactly what they were elected to do: catering to people's short-term wants & needs. They were not voted-in to care about what's gonna happen to the world decades from now.
I hate to say bad things about Hybrid cars and other alternative fuels, but unfortunately things are not that simple. I (and many others) will be driving hybrid cars, but that will only contribute to the problem, not solve it. Every hybrid car takes more energy to manfucature than a conventional car, because of the extra R&D costs. That energy still comes from oil. And consider this, if you gave up on the SUV you bought just 3 yrs ago for a new hybrid, you are disposing of a product much sooner than it's expected life-of-service. All the resources that went into creating that SUV in the first place will be wasted.
The hybrid car fits in perfectly with the idea that you should always buy the latest and the greatest. It's another marketing tool to get people to buy more stuff. People feel good about hybrid cars right now; it has good PR, and of course companies are gonna take advantage. The irony is that they'll roll out products that really aren't more efficient than conventional gas vehicles. For example, the projected efficiency for hybrid SUV's is ~32 mpg. We already have cars (ahem, Civics), that get ~34 mpg. The best thing that people can do that actually benefits EVERYONE is not to buy new vehicles, but to keep whatever they have and use it for as long as possible. But this is hardly realistic, as people will generally do things that are best for themselves before they care about others (I am guilty of this too).
If gas were a normal commidity, then yeah, people will react like you predicted. Unfortunately, the demand for gas is inelastic, (see http://www.mackinac.org/article.asp?ID=1247) meaning people won't change their buying habits much as prices go up.Originally posted by squirrels
Economically, supply and demand will tighten around oil consumption like a noose until people are FORCED to either start conserving or find alternate transportation.
What you'll start to see is people moving back to the cities. Right now, too many people live in outlying suburbs and commute many, MANY miles to work each day. When fuel becomes tight, people will start moving back to the cities, closer to the jobs, and mass-transit will become a priority. You can live in a city like New York pretty much without EVER owning a car. People will start building UP instead of OUT, and cars will be weekend luxury cruisers instead of constant daily drivers.
It's not going to hit "all at once" tomorrow and suddenly we will be DRY on oil. People are already seeing the effects of diminishing fossil fuel supplies. Cars are being built which can run on corn oil...corn you can grow in fields. And the hydrogen thing IS a joke right now, because you DO need fossil fuel energy to dissociate the hydrogen from the oxygen in water. What they need to do is start exploring SOLAR energy. Dammit, we've got a fusion reactor thousands of times the size of our planet and we're still only harnessing its energy in the form of decomposed organic waste (fossil fuels).
It'll happen. Only question is "when". But it's not a doomsday scenario. We have alternatives. They just need to become more profitable than the existing system before companies will take them seriously. And they WILL long before we reach a "crisis."
I do admit that I'm making this sound worse than it probably will be, but we are definitely looking at the end of cheap oil in America and world-wide. A crisis may or may not happen, and even if it does it won't be overnight. It'll be gradual. It remains to be seen whether alternative energy sources can ease the problem. Our best bet right now is nuclear energy, but with it having such a bad rep I doubt there'll be developments in that area.