Re:
I'm not doubting the appreciation of property; that's a given. If you employ a strategy of accumulating wealth and arbitrage over your lifetime, you'll profit and stay ahead of the game. I know lots of families in wealthy cul-de-sacs that have $500k+ homes. But what do you do?
Inside MA, you move to a less settled town and bank the gain, maybe. But you move away from your employer, possibly, too. You up-root your kids, or wife, too.
If you're not emotionally attached to the home, it works. But the fallacy is, people put MORE into their homes than other venues. Gains in a home are accidental and unintended. You don't lose the sunk improvement value, but you can't use it in the sense of consummable, useable, income.
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I would say CA, and esp. Orange County is one of those areas that appreciated alot, much like Boston. But I would say Washington isn't one of those states that saw the widespread run-up in R/E prices. As a result, you could get more house the same money, or downgrade and bank it. In either case, not all people do that. They're upgrading until retirement. And when you're upgrading, you face the aforementioned higher costs.
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Tactics:
**Learn to invest WISELY with leveraged debt, so if you extract the equity in your home and purchase other R/E, you're not screwing yourself. [A book called Missed Fortune talks about using Mortgages and Home Equity]
**Realize a home WILL consume lots of cash while you live in it. If you move, there's a multitude of factors that don't make it seamless. Certainly it can happen that your profit, but don't make a home be your only asset, as illiquid as it is.
**Single guys and bachelors can move frequently, even guys who are married can move for awhile, but inevitably, you'll want to settle down somewhere good to raise kids, and won't be up or downgrading for 20 years, so like what you get.
I'd invite ST8UP to par-take in these talks and impart his thoughts. I'm stating what I know from the side of dealing with the Average American, and what I see. MOST people live in 1 home for quite sometime. The new trends appearing are to move every 5 or so years until kids are had or they find a place they really like. Each time, it does cost dough to move, refinancing, and possibly a diff. mortgage.
I would say you SHOULD upgrade, because each area of the city/town, state, and country see diff. property growth rates, and you want stay at pace or AHEAD of it so as not to get stuck in a home that doesn't appreciate. In my city of 100,000, some areas peak over 500k and then some. The average home is around 280k. My parents had their home around 100k, it's gone up nicely, but to get the SAME house now would be 400k+.
My aunts house down the road, which houses 4 kids, 2 adults, a 2 car garage a pool and yard is over 600k. If you wanted that same home now, it'd be more than 600k unless you're willing to move to the boonies, REALLY seek a deal, re-do a home, or accept less home.
Just thoughts, it isn't etched in stone and WILL be diff. for each guy across the country.
A-unit