Kentucky Derby
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PrettyBoyAJ
Master Don Juan
Backbreaker, who should we put our money on?
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
don't waste your money on alpha. not only do I not htink he's good enough he's sick and missed training and that is not condusive to running hte best race of your life which is what it would take for alpha to have a chance to win this race.
I will preference this by stating i'm pretty shaky in how i feel about the race
what i am not shaky on is that it's a 5 horse race between creative cause, i'll have another, went the day well, Bodemeister and gemologist
hansen is really talented but won't run this far. same with union rags and union rags has a ****ty post for his running style and tends to find trouble in his races in fields much smaller than this one
I can say i feel pretty sure one of those 5 horses will win this race. I've been on creative cause since last year and that's who I am going with. the only thing is, he kinda got a little hurt this week on the flight to kentucky. i'm banking on it being a very minor injury or his trainer would have scratched.
bodemiester IMHO is the more talanted horse in the race but he's way too green and the post he has is going to lim it what he can do as far as running style he has to gun to the lead and any horse that is going to gun to the lead in this race is going to get ran into the ground.
went the day well has been working out lights out in the morning.
i would be surprised if take charge indy or daddy nose best won the race, but i would not go so far as to say it can't happen. i wouldn't wager on them tough.
i'm playing creative cause straight up. I'll have another is the real value he's going to be about 18 to 1 and he beat creative cause last out in the santa anita derby but his post position (19) is just too much. only 1 horse has ever won the race from that deep out and he was 10 lengths better than any other horse in the race (big brown)
gemoligist is undefeated but hasn't faced horses anywhere near this good. he beat alpha last out but i don't think a hell of alot of alpha. he's huge and the track being somewhat sticky doesn't play to his liking. but he fights for it and he will run 10F which you can't say for every horse in the race. i just think creative cause, bodemiester and i'll have another are better horses.
so in short if you want to actually win the race and want sound handicapping i have to go creative cause
if you are just wagering for ****s and giggles and want to try to hit a grand slam i'll have another or went the day well, both are about the same to me
I will preference this by stating i'm pretty shaky in how i feel about the race
what i am not shaky on is that it's a 5 horse race between creative cause, i'll have another, went the day well, Bodemeister and gemologist
hansen is really talented but won't run this far. same with union rags and union rags has a ****ty post for his running style and tends to find trouble in his races in fields much smaller than this one
I can say i feel pretty sure one of those 5 horses will win this race. I've been on creative cause since last year and that's who I am going with. the only thing is, he kinda got a little hurt this week on the flight to kentucky. i'm banking on it being a very minor injury or his trainer would have scratched.
bodemiester IMHO is the more talanted horse in the race but he's way too green and the post he has is going to lim it what he can do as far as running style he has to gun to the lead and any horse that is going to gun to the lead in this race is going to get ran into the ground.
went the day well has been working out lights out in the morning.
i would be surprised if take charge indy or daddy nose best won the race, but i would not go so far as to say it can't happen. i wouldn't wager on them tough.
i'm playing creative cause straight up. I'll have another is the real value he's going to be about 18 to 1 and he beat creative cause last out in the santa anita derby but his post position (19) is just too much. only 1 horse has ever won the race from that deep out and he was 10 lengths better than any other horse in the race (big brown)
gemoligist is undefeated but hasn't faced horses anywhere near this good. he beat alpha last out but i don't think a hell of alot of alpha. he's huge and the track being somewhat sticky doesn't play to his liking. but he fights for it and he will run 10F which you can't say for every horse in the race. i just think creative cause, bodemiester and i'll have another are better horses.
so in short if you want to actually win the race and want sound handicapping i have to go creative cause
if you are just wagering for ****s and giggles and want to try to hit a grand slam i'll have another or went the day well, both are about the same to me
Yikes! You boys lost some serious wadd. Proving once and for all that the Internet is NO PLACE to get tips on making money. The Internet IS a place to crank your wanker to weird Hentai porn followed by chilling to the sounds of a certain Little River...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0laDzqdzoSU&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0laDzqdzoSU&feature=relmfu
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
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never mind that i told you it was a 5 horse race and 4 of the 5 horses ended up int he top 5. even more than that only 1 of them was under 10 to 1. don't even mind that i told you bodemeister was the most talented horse in the race and he ran the fastest frational splits in the history of the kentucky derby and still lost in what is considered to be the best effort by a losing horse in decades, at least since slew in the 79 gold cup
don't even mind that i told you 2 of the top 3 betting choices wouldn't run a step and i was right (union rags, take charge indy)
i didn't win but to say that i didn't call the race dead on you are showing your ass. i even told you why i didn't take i'll have another, i couldn't stomach the 19 post but he did it anyway. the logic was sound the race horse was just better than the logic.
just like picking up women, even the best handicappers only win about 30 at most 40 percent of the races that they wager. but like gaming women, if you have solid game you will get yours.
go back to trolling the main forum
hell i didn't even tell you not to pick i'll have another. i told you that if you wanted to take a chance he was the best option to make some real money and he won. it's like you didn't even bother to read the post.
truth be told i didn't give myself enough credit. i had this race nailed dead to rights. i knew the florida horses weren't worth ****. i knew hansen would act an ass and he did taking away any real chance he had. the only thing i didn't do is i gave gemologist too much credit and i didn't think dullahan would handle the dirt and he did. otherwise i would have given you the top 5 finishers in the race out of 5 horses.
watching too horse racing TV listening to too many people i started questioning **** i should not have been questioning.
LOL stick to trolling beucase handicapping sure isn't your gameBigJimbo said:
never mind that i told you it was a 5 horse race and 4 of the 5 horses ended up int he top 5. even more than that only 1 of them was under 10 to 1. don't even mind that i told you bodemeister was the most talented horse in the race and he ran the fastest frational splits in the history of the kentucky derby and still lost in what is considered to be the best effort by a losing horse in decades, at least since slew in the 79 gold cup
don't even mind that i told you 2 of the top 3 betting choices wouldn't run a step and i was right (union rags, take charge indy)
i didn't win but to say that i didn't call the race dead on you are showing your ass. i even told you why i didn't take i'll have another, i couldn't stomach the 19 post but he did it anyway. the logic was sound the race horse was just better than the logic.
just like picking up women, even the best handicappers only win about 30 at most 40 percent of the races that they wager. but like gaming women, if you have solid game you will get yours.
go back to trolling the main forum
hell i didn't even tell you not to pick i'll have another. i told you that if you wanted to take a chance he was the best option to make some real money and he won. it's like you didn't even bother to read the post.
truth be told i didn't give myself enough credit. i had this race nailed dead to rights. i knew the florida horses weren't worth ****. i knew hansen would act an ass and he did taking away any real chance he had. the only thing i didn't do is i gave gemologist too much credit and i didn't think dullahan would handle the dirt and he did. otherwise i would have given you the top 5 finishers in the race out of 5 horses.
watching too horse racing TV listening to too many people i started questioning **** i should not have been questioning.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
honeslty monday morning i still had not decided who i was going to wager. i'll have another beat CC on the square last race. i liked i'll have another but i knew CC was not pointed to the last race he was pointed to this race. when they did the draw creative cause drew the 8 and I'll have another drew the 19. only one horse i can think of has ever won from past the 18 and that's big brown. now they have only been doing 20 for like 15 years so it's not like it's a huge deal but 2 horses in the last 6 years have won from the 8, barbaro and mine that bird.
considering i had them even just about and i'll have another beat CC by a half a nose the last race that wasn't a tough call for me to make. plus i'll have another's jockey is not a very good jockey. but if i'll have another was like the 13 spot i would have most likely went with him with the news about CC's foot and the fact that he was training lights out and he beat him last race. that is the only reason i didn't have him.
my wife loves CC she was so heartbroken, and drunk but mostly heartbroken lol.
i would be lying if i said i racked up today i didn't, i hit one race all day, the grass race for the fillies where hungry island won but it paid 13.60 for 2 doll.ar ticket i about broke even i only bet 5 races on the day. little bit better than broke even. i only bet straight win tickets.
yesterday i cleaned house though i hit 4 out of 6 races and lost the oaks and one of the undercard races.
i dont' know how much any of you fo;llow racing but the story wasn't even the winner, bodemiester mother of god i can't tell you how impressive his race was today. that was only his 4th race of his life. he's the next big thing in horse racing. a superstar was born today my friends.
he took the lead, hansen is the 2YO champion from last year, gemololsist was undefeated and take charge indy was the florida derby winner, you havd 3 grade 1 winners and BM just ran them straight in the ground trying to keep up with him and not only did that but then re broke at the top of the stretch and opened up. half way through the race my wife and i looked at each other and said "oh **** he's cooked". horses don't run 45 second splits in 10F races and live to tell about it. when he re broke at the top of the stretch i was speachless.
i'll have another won the battle but he wants no part of him in the belmont. he won't catch him and no one can run with him.
considering i had them even just about and i'll have another beat CC by a half a nose the last race that wasn't a tough call for me to make. plus i'll have another's jockey is not a very good jockey. but if i'll have another was like the 13 spot i would have most likely went with him with the news about CC's foot and the fact that he was training lights out and he beat him last race. that is the only reason i didn't have him.
my wife loves CC she was so heartbroken, and drunk but mostly heartbroken lol.
i would be lying if i said i racked up today i didn't, i hit one race all day, the grass race for the fillies where hungry island won but it paid 13.60 for 2 doll.ar ticket i about broke even i only bet 5 races on the day. little bit better than broke even. i only bet straight win tickets.
yesterday i cleaned house though i hit 4 out of 6 races and lost the oaks and one of the undercard races.
i dont' know how much any of you fo;llow racing but the story wasn't even the winner, bodemiester mother of god i can't tell you how impressive his race was today. that was only his 4th race of his life. he's the next big thing in horse racing. a superstar was born today my friends.
he took the lead, hansen is the 2YO champion from last year, gemololsist was undefeated and take charge indy was the florida derby winner, you havd 3 grade 1 winners and BM just ran them straight in the ground trying to keep up with him and not only did that but then re broke at the top of the stretch and opened up. half way through the race my wife and i looked at each other and said "oh **** he's cooked". horses don't run 45 second splits in 10F races and live to tell about it. when he re broke at the top of the stretch i was speachless.
i'll have another won the battle but he wants no part of him in the belmont. he won't catch him and no one can run with him.
Apparently Hay List was looking at going to the Breeders Cup but now looks like he will never race again. Big disappointment.
Look out for Atlantic Jewel also, a horse that perhaps next year could take Black Caviar after she likely wins at Royal Ascot.
Look out for Atlantic Jewel also, a horse that perhaps next year could take Black Caviar after she likely wins at Royal Ascot.
I'm pissed that my man Bodemeister didn't win. in my opinion I was FAR more impressed with his outing then I was with I'll have another. if that sprinter Trinneberg hadn't been in the race I think Bodemeister would have won, that early sprinting between the two caught up with him in the end. he would have broken Secretariat's record if he hadn't have dropped off, he was on pace too at least. i thought it was cool as hell to see Lava Man as i'll have another's pony though. always like Lava Man. My second favorite I was pulling for was Union Rags because if the Barbaro similarity but he had a bad start, still managed to come in 6th though so to me that was impressive. I see i'll have another getting smoked in a few weeks though. he's an ok horse, but he reminds me alot of Mine that Bird....just a fluke win in the derby. this was a very talented field, but I still think Bodemeister was the best horse out there.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
you are 100% correct. if T'burg is not in the race BM does not have to run such wicked fractions and has enough to hold on and win. the only reason BM did not win was a 50 to 1 sprinter's owner getting derby fever. lol T berd was done before the half way mark in the race by the time they hit the turn he was literally going backwards.Robert28 said:
you seem to know what you are talking about so i can say what i am thinking about the race. i think matz did a ****ty job preparing him for the derby. that is the reason i never took him seriously. he's by dixie union a stone cold sprinter and his grand dam is a 2YO sprinting champion and what do you to go get him ready to run a 10F race? you give him a 4 month break and give him a ****ty prep agaainst crappy horses and a florida derby in which he was short in that, and when you realize that he wasn't ready for the distance of that race you give him 1 5F work?
the thing is barbaro, people talk about barbaro beucse of his death but barbaro was a pure freak of nature on the race track. litarllly all matz had to do was make sure he was healthy and make sure that the jockey did not fall off durning hte race and he was going to win that race.
matz trained union rags like he was a freak, but he's not. he's a good horse. he's a grade 1 calibutr horse. but he's not, big brown barbaro ghostzapper freak of nature type like all i have to do is get him to the race in one peice and he's good to go. that was a very ****ty training job IMHO. I thought it was stupid last year with uncle mo and hell uncle mo actually does have freankish talent. uncle mo would beat union rags without breaking out of a gallop.
but even worse that that was the ride on union rags. lol what little chance he had of winning the race when JL managed to somehow get his horse boxed in after being the next to last horse after the first turn on the outside. how do you go from being the next to last horse on the outside with no one outside of you to being boxed inside by the tim you hit the next turn. Very overrated jockey IMHO. even in my firs tpost i told you union rags has a way of getting into traffic trouble. really that's more his jockey than it is him.
I think Bode has ghostzapper type potential. for me to say that means a lot beucas ei think ghostzapper when healthy there are maybe a hand ful of horses that can beat him in the history of the sport. this was only his 4th race ever. by the breeders cup this group will want no part of him and this is a very deep group of horses. he ran some very good horses into the ground.
the standard race for running your eyeballs out and still somehow losing to me was always hard spun's derby where he ran what 23, 46, 1:10 and street sense still had to fight tooth and nail to pass him. street sense would not have caught BM today. and hard spun was GOOD.
I am familar with Atlantic jewel I think she ran on cox plate day on the under card if i am not mistaken and ran a very impressive race. i watch aussie racing just as much as american racing.
frankel's little brother is one to watch out for. he's not as good as frankel but he's very good and i think will take the epsom darby
my fav aussie horse outisde of BC is more joyus. i love Gai first and foremost she's such a lady. But more joyeus is very good and is a tad bit more versitle than BC is though not that cut of horse.
one of my old plates used to works around the doug o'neil barn. she works for carla gains but is always around that barn. she told me lava man is fat as hell now lol and isn't the same temperent horse he used to be he used to be almsot savage like.
I keep up with horse racing SOME, though not as much as you and most others. I don't know what your thoughts are on Chris Antley but he went to my highschool (small private school in SC) and dropped out in the 11th grade to warm up horses in Elloree, SC which is only like 25 mins from me. Ellorree turns out a few good horses, but none have ever made it to the Derby that i'm aware of. we have a handful come from Aiken sometimes. Antley is big around here though since hes the only jockey to ever make it in the big time, much less the fact that he won the Derby twice and had a chance at the tripple crown on Charismatic. his mom still lives around here, VERY nice lady, VERY short too.lol it's a shame he got messed up into drugs because i always thought he could be on of the best jockeys ever. he never seemed to get along with the trainer Lucas though. that's what his mom hinted to me before when i talked to her. Chris Antley is actually berried in Elloree, small cemetary right in the middle of a field out of all places. so that's how my interest in horse racing stems from.
my family used to own horses for years but we got out of it about 10 years ago. my mom showed horses and did pretty well with it. I still go to the Ellorree trials every year to see the young horses on the short track. there's talent there but nothing like Antley will ever come out of this part again.
I always liked Barbaro, even before he got injured and became super popular. I saw a great horse in him. Brig Brown is another favorite of mine too. Bodemeister is a horse that got me excited, first time since Big Brown. I just don't know where all these long shot horses are coming from here lately and winning the Derby! i mean sh!t, I thought Mine that Bird was bad, but now we see a $35,000 horse win the Derby! next year it'll be some horse won in a poker game or something. i guess it makes it fun that everyone has a chance to win such a big race, but i still think the best horse came in second today. I also would like to see what Union Rags could do under Baffert rather then Matz.
my family used to own horses for years but we got out of it about 10 years ago. my mom showed horses and did pretty well with it. I still go to the Ellorree trials every year to see the young horses on the short track. there's talent there but nothing like Antley will ever come out of this part again.
I always liked Barbaro, even before he got injured and became super popular. I saw a great horse in him. Brig Brown is another favorite of mine too. Bodemeister is a horse that got me excited, first time since Big Brown. I just don't know where all these long shot horses are coming from here lately and winning the Derby! i mean sh!t, I thought Mine that Bird was bad, but now we see a $35,000 horse win the Derby! next year it'll be some horse won in a poker game or something. i guess it makes it fun that everyone has a chance to win such a big race, but i still think the best horse came in second today. I also would like to see what Union Rags could do under Baffert rather then Matz.
Which is Frankels little brother name?backbreaker said:
Yeh, More Joyous is having a cracker at the moment, absolutely eased past some top quality horses including Americain in her last race. She is going to be hard to stop in the Cox Plate, but races too high distance to ever race BC. She is more of a miler (6 Ferlong as you guys call it I think)
Atlantic Jewel is more of a sprinter like BC but she is way more versatile than BC. She beat Mosheen over 1600 who is a top quality horse and took apart Rain Affair who looks like he is going to be a top quality sprinter also in her last race out and to think she is only 3.
Great sprinters at the moment in Aussie racing, but More Joyous is definately the form miler at the moment. Bring on Royal Ascot (got a few mates going) and then the Spring Racing carnival down under!
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
didn't he did from drugs or something like that not long afer he won the derby?Robert28 said:
frankel's little brother is named noble mission
Even a cursory glace at the Racing Form told me to avoid the speedsters and go with CC. He did a fair job and closed steadily to lose by only 3. I would have poured money on him if not for the fact that he tired and drifted in his last two. Not a strong finisher but worth a bet.
Sadly, the torrid pace should have set it up for any decent closer. The pace slowed to a crawl in the last half (Secretariat? Hah!). But there weren't even any half-assed closers in the race. As in most Derbies, the dying pace got passed in deep stretch.
The sticky track favored speed all day. Closers had the worst of it but still caught runaways when they tired. B too was caught.
Take the 20 best 3yos and drug and treatment them to an unsustainable peak. Several of them are going to put in their career best performances. Remember Monarchos? Every few years, one of these bests is going to be among the better stakes winning performances of that year.
IMO, Matz did a terrible job with Barbaro. Spaced out his 3yo preps too far, put Barbaro in the Preakness despite having a leg injury and favoring it (wore a wrap on that leg for the first time). Everyone said Barbaro had the wrong action for dirt, hard and high action, but with all the high talk about Kitten's Joy the year before, Matz pulled the wise guy play and put his turf wonder into the Triple Crown chase. Then of course he gets all greedy and tortures the poor thing for its breeding value instead of just putting it down immediately like you're supposed to do with a compound fracture.
So everyone ignored Bernardini and he would have gone on to win the fall races if it weren't for the bad luck of having to face Invasor.
The Preakness sets up for speed or middle moves so it's B's to lose.
__________________
I am not her man. She can't stand the thought of me touching her. She's dripping with other men's semen. She is ashamed to be seen with me. She never misses an opportunity to disrespect me. Everything I do is wrong. I am the problem. She got what she wanted from me. She says "I hate you so much I could kill you." Going away forever will make her happy again. So I'm leaving her to her pumped-and-dumped lifestyle and leaving her bastard child fatherless. I'd be better off with no woman at all than wasting another second thinking about her. I learned from my mistakes and the next relationship will be done with planning for my happiness.
Sadly, the torrid pace should have set it up for any decent closer. The pace slowed to a crawl in the last half (Secretariat? Hah!). But there weren't even any half-assed closers in the race. As in most Derbies, the dying pace got passed in deep stretch.
The sticky track favored speed all day. Closers had the worst of it but still caught runaways when they tired. B too was caught.
Take the 20 best 3yos and drug and treatment them to an unsustainable peak. Several of them are going to put in their career best performances. Remember Monarchos? Every few years, one of these bests is going to be among the better stakes winning performances of that year.
IMO, Matz did a terrible job with Barbaro. Spaced out his 3yo preps too far, put Barbaro in the Preakness despite having a leg injury and favoring it (wore a wrap on that leg for the first time). Everyone said Barbaro had the wrong action for dirt, hard and high action, but with all the high talk about Kitten's Joy the year before, Matz pulled the wise guy play and put his turf wonder into the Triple Crown chase. Then of course he gets all greedy and tortures the poor thing for its breeding value instead of just putting it down immediately like you're supposed to do with a compound fracture.
So everyone ignored Bernardini and he would have gone on to win the fall races if it weren't for the bad luck of having to face Invasor.
The Preakness sets up for speed or middle moves so it's B's to lose.
__________________
I am not her man. She can't stand the thought of me touching her. She's dripping with other men's semen. She is ashamed to be seen with me. She never misses an opportunity to disrespect me. Everything I do is wrong. I am the problem. She got what she wanted from me. She says "I hate you so much I could kill you." Going away forever will make her happy again. So I'm leaving her to her pumped-and-dumped lifestyle and leaving her bastard child fatherless. I'd be better off with no woman at all than wasting another second thinking about her. I learned from my mistakes and the next relationship will be done with planning for my happiness.
I can tell BB knows his sh!t just by his response. Anybody that is an expert in their field has a certain way of detailing and explaining that screams, i know what im talking about.
The phonies always have a way of outing themeselves..
When you reach a certain level in any field you can with 90% confidence say.. this guy has no clue, this guy kinda has a clue, he's a work in progress.. and this guy knows what th fluck he's talking about.
The phonies always have a way of outing themeselves..
When you reach a certain level in any field you can with 90% confidence say.. this guy has no clue, this guy kinda has a clue, he's a work in progress.. and this guy knows what th fluck he's talking about.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
with creative cause i don't think it's so much him being tired as it is him still being immature. they took the blinkers off him in the SA derby he did the same thing and was closing he just wasn't running straight lol.Down Low said:
i have a theory on CC, that he is very much like Alaysheba was the derby winner in that he is a particularly hard horse to ride in that you have to time his move jsut right.
go back and look at the race, when they hit the turn into the stretch i was 100% convinced CC was going to get up. he was engulfing horses. once they hit the straight with his blinkers on he could not see BM and he assumed he was in front and just started playing around. he does it in every race. that's why he never wins by a large margin.
you have to time his ride just right to hit the wire right when you hit the lead just like you had to do with Alashyeba or else he would start goofing off. I don't think it's a stamina issue
facts don't back up this statement.
the fact is most of the horses in the race are sprinters or 1 turn horses who owners got derby fever and beucase they are being asked to run much further than they want to run they will run careeer lows, not highs as far relative speed figures are concerned.
trinniberg the 50 to 1 horse who was right behind BM is a graded stakes winner and grade 1 placed horse and routinly runs speed figures in the high 90's but ran like a 55 speed figure in the derby.
you have been reading too much propaganda. i'm not saying that drug use is out of control but to suggest that the horses are drugged up freaks in the derby is not only wrong it paints a wrong picture. hell if there is any race that you aren't going to cheat in it's the derby the Olympics could wish to have the drug screening that derby has. Daddy lone legs had to be guaranteed and tested for 2 days straight before he was allowed to even step foot on the damn track because he is from ireland. the horses are tested and kept in a holding barn 48 hours before the race and ther eis a security guard for every horse so that no one gets in and gets out without being accounted for , so that no drugs can be entered intot he system. Dancers image in 1968 was even DQ'ed for having too much bute in his system, ironically enough bute was declared legal a few years later and big red won the triple crown on it.
i'm not saying there aren't cheaters, but in horse racing you see more cheating to get horses to run when they don't really want to run, i.e pain deadners and stuff like that than you see trainers who cheat to give their horse an edge. and the real cheating in the high end of the game is really not all that prevalent.
as much as i don't like matz, and i really don't care for him as a trainer, this is just too far. first of all that 's not even his call it's the owners.
and the reason it's not done is becuase it's very very expensive but not impossible.
not even a year later, another matz horse named Cholkee, who ironically won the barbaro stakes, suffered pretty much the same indurry in the alahsyeba stakes at churchill downs on a wet track and they did not put him down and after a few months of treatment and suguries he surived and is now living a comfortable life in retirement. I'm not going to say there was no monatary interest at all but to say that's the ONLY reason they kept him alive is a fib and you know it. he's the freaking derby winner no one wants to put down a derby winner
i really would be shocked if he ran in the preakness off that effort
the one thing i will agree with you on is that matz job with barbaro really was bad. The rason I think it was bad becuase i really do not think he had any real intention of running him in the derby utnil he was forced to.
you have to go back to that and remember that barbaro was entered in the fountain of youth only becuase it was forcasted to rain if it did not rain that day he would have been scratched most likely and it was freaking pouring that day and he slopped in the mud like dynaformers do. and **** after you win the foutnain of youth you have to run in the derby which ironically enough i believe was also a sloppy track. after you win that you kinda have to run in the derby.
i think matz knew he had a really really good turf horse and the jacksons caught derby fever and he was going ot let him run in the fountain of youth just to shut him up once he clearly did not handle the track but he did and that threw all his plans off. I believe he spaced his races out becuase he neve rreally had any intention to run in the derby in the first place. and by the time it was set in stone he could not go back.
but barbaro was that much of a freak to win anyway.
the truth is, and this is a real hot button issue for me so excuse me for ranting but the game is being hurt more byh ****ty trainers than it ever will be because of drugs or medications. half these trianers have no fvcking clue what they are doing i am convinced of it. matz, pletcher, is more concerned about winning the media war then winning the actual derby. sending a freaking horse to the derby with 2 preps in 6 months damn near and then acting freaking surprised your hosre doesn't run a step. but the more times they prep the more chances they have of losing and well these trainers can't have that. and it's ruining the game.
there was 165k people at cuurhcill yesterday a record. beucase the field was the best in years. people will show up if you put on a show. no one wants to see one horse and a bunch of middle class horses. it's like trainers now just are tossing the pan around hoping to find a nugget of gold. you saw a little bit more old school training with creative cause, i'll have another this year. both were really good 2YO's that were trained to be well at 3 neither were freaks.
like the horse take charge indy. was the 3rd betting choice after winning the florida derby. the trainer after the race says he isn't going to let his horse hit the track for 3 weeks, at all. nothing. then he will give him 1-2 breezes after that before the derby.
take charge indy ran so hard in the derby he hurt himself and is now getting X rayed. and the novice will look at it and say look see what the drugs are doing to these horses and see what these cruel people are doing wh en the reality is that the horses would do their damn job if the trainers would just freaking train them to do it.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
thanks. i don't talk shop here because well, i know how people goes with handicapping and chest pumping and the first time i give a wrong pick there will be a 3 page thread about how much of a phony i am, plus that's not why i come here.. but i assure i am very very good at my craft. this is my job and i treat it as such.st_99 said:
backbreaker said:
he won the derby the first time on Strike the Gold in '91. Strike the Gold was the oldest living Derby winner until he died last year. Antley had some health and weight problems and wasn't getting as many mounts so he temporarily retired in '97. he came back home to Elloree and got back into shape. you'd see him running around town all the time. he got to where he'd run about 20 miles a DAY. now you know the fitness level of the jockey's.lol in '99 he rode for D. Wayne Lukas on Charismatic winning his second derby and the preakness before the horse broke down in the home stretch of the Belmont. there's a famous photograph of him holding the horses leg in the middle of the track. he got bad into drugs not long after losing the tripple crown (some say because of depression) and he was murdered in his home in California, although it was never proven.
Funny you should mention that. When I watched the video replay of the San Felipe, I was thinking that CC almost did the ping-pong off horses like Alyrob in the SA Derby like 15 years ago. Alyrob came up empty in the Ky Derby.backbreaker said:
Agreed. It used to be that 4-7 of the entries had any legitimate chance. Now it's more like one entry every three or four years. They just haven't been bred for mile-and-a-quarter to mile-and-a-half for decades. It shows. Useful horses come up but not as many and not as good.backbreaker said:
I think drug use is so out of control it's beyond cheating. It's standard industry practice. It's destroying racing from inside. Bute you say? How about Lasix? It's mainly a diuretic used for pissing out strong performance enhancing drugs.backbreaker said:
Healthy horses have to be doped just to match the performance enhancements of their competitors.
I think it's just a big circus side show to be so nuts about keeping out milkshakes and pre-race drugs. The real damage was done with needles months beforehand, getting lesser types with no chance (like the one-turn wonders you mention) hyped up so they could place in middle distance preps and get money toward Derby qualification. Why do they skip preps and space races five, six, or even eight weeks apart? So the horses can p1ss the drugs out. And they need even stronger drugs with way shorter half lives, and need more of these half lives to pass before taking a risk of a positive.
Training on drugs is the problem. Racing on drugs is the bogeyman.
I remember how Lukas' Charismatic and Cat Thief made startling turnarounds in their Kentucky preps before the Derby and Breeders Cup in 99 the very year that steroids were legalized in Kentucky well before other states. Like I said, it isn't the drug injected right before the race so much as it's the drugs used to prep them up to the big race.Robert28 said:
Bellamy Road got a 120 Beyer in the Wood. What's the chance that was legit? It was something like 3 standard deviations above the average best BSF in preps for Derby winners. Come the Derby, he staggered along for seventh like the fake he was. Bellamy Road never belonged in the Wood and only stole qualification money that should have gone to a real contender.
I have to stand by what I said. Look at the facts. Horses very rarely break down in the Triple Crown. If they're going to break down, they do so in training or preps way beforehand. Hundreds of TC contenders over the years included many badly handled sprinters that were pushed hard for months -- until they stopped on the backstretch or the turn for home. But they didn't break down. What were the odds that Barbaro would break down? Pretty damn long. That is, unless he was drugged into freakishly good prep performances and Matz knew it.backbreaker said:
What can't be disputed is that Matz knew after the Preakness that such a breakdown had less than a 50-50 chance of healing. Later, less than 1 in 10 chance for recovery when Barbaro developed laminitis. Even then, they waited until the condition got worse before putting him down.
I thought he was a fake going into the Preakness. Oh, I didn't like that year's crop and I thought they were beatable by any up-and-comer, but Barbaro's racing style was too uneven and that indicated he'd flake. ("Freak" "flake" "fake" whatever you want to call it.) The accident confirmed my suspicion. I thought he should have been put down on the track. But how would that have played to the uninformed masses of public opinion? So they kept the horse suffering and anthropomorphized it as being a "heroic struggle" when the horse was a horse and didn't know what was happening, and was so doped up even a human wouldn't have known what was happening.
Industry standards are a race to the bottom with regard to the treatment of horses same as they are for the treatment of men. Are we seeing conditions improve for track workers and stable hands? No. If anything, they got much worse. Low paid black workers were entirely replaced with even lower paid illegal aliens.
Yep. No one could expect him to say "well get yourself another trainer." Big owners are hard to find and if one gets mad at you, your reputation won't be worth horse sh1t.backbreaker said:
In the end, it's just a horse race. When it's over, turn the page and look for something to like in the next race.
What I need is to be able to do that with women.
__________________
I am not her man. She can't stand the thought of me touching her. She's dripping with other men's semen. She is ashamed to be seen with me. She never misses an opportunity to disrespect me. Everything I do is wrong. I am the problem. She got what she wanted from me. She says "I hate you so much I could kill you." Going away forever will make her happy again. So I'm leaving her to her pumped-and-dumped lifestyle and leaving her bastard child fatherless. I'd be better off with no woman at all than wasting another second thinking about her. I learned from my mistakes and the next relationship will be done with planning for my happiness.
cordoncordon
Master Don Juan
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Now you guys are talking about something I really know about....horse racing. In fact my screen name, cordoncordon, was one of the fastest Invitational pacers you will ever see in Michigan. So let me preface this all by saying I have been and owner and trainer of Standardbred race horses for 20 years. This is called harness racing. I have had a stable as large as 30 horses at one time under my care. Have trained many hundreds of horses. My brother and I were the leading trainers at many tracks in Michigan for many years. Have owned some great horses as well. One horse, Island Echo, won over 100 races for me. Let me say that again. One hundred races. That is pretty much unheard of in horse racing.backbreaker said:
Now, as far as drugs, I have used and have seen others used them since day 1....not to the extent people think, but they are used. This isn't even a drug, but the best drug you will ever ever EVER see used on a racehorse is something called a milkshake. You know what it is? Sodium bicarbonate. Or in other words, plain old baking soda. Try it on yourself someday next time you have a big race or a workout. Back in the day we used to mix it with corn syrup, electrolytes, MSM, and a few other things, but the main thing here is one box of Arm and Hammer baking soda. You either tube it down their throat or take a large syringe and dose them with it in their mouth (takes forever as you have to mix the soda with water and the other stuff) about 4-5 hours before the race. So lets say you are at the barn where you train, you shake them, load the horse into the trailer, drive to the track, get them ready to race, race, come home. The only thing is you need to make sure you gave them sips of water before they raced as the baking soda makes them very thirsty due to the salt from the baking soda. Now, if a horse is on lasix, (an anti bleeding med used as a diuretic that lowers blood pressure so they don't bleed in the lungs) that makes them even more thirsty, and you don't want to get their electrolytes screwed up which could cause poor performace, so it was always a fine balance on how much water you gave them. But basically what a milkshake did was prevent them from tying up due to lactic acid buildup when they race. I wont give specifics, but I have seen horses improve 3-4 seconds on this, and they NEVER got tired. It was amazing. This simple 99 cent box of baking soda. But Im telling you there will never be another prerace like it (prerace is anything given to a horse before they race to go faster). They test for milkshakes now. They use something called a blood gas analyzer. They take a blood sample before the race to test TCO2. If this level is above or below the standard norms that a horse usually has, the racing commission will give you the standard penalty. 60 day suspension, $1000 fine, return of purse.
There are tons of other drugs people use, but again not as much as people think. Nor are they as bad for the horse as people think. Thyroid med, pain killers, bronchial dialators, stimulants, EPO, predef. But the horse racing authorities have made post race testing (all winners get complete blood and urine work done) so tough now, that combine that with the fact that all the bigger races require all horses be in a 48 hour detention bard before the race, that drug use is way down. Now, there is still a ton that goes on to the horse during the week before the race, and I used to spend $thousands a week on my horses with the vet doing this, but that is another story.
This is where the Standard bred trainers and the T bred trainers really differ. Now, the standard bred harness horse is a little bit more of a sturdier horse. His confirmation is better, better temparment, they can take a TON more work than a T bred can. But wow do T bred trainers suck imo when it comes to training a horse. They think they can breeze a horse a few times and race them once every 2 months and they will be at the top of their game. That is nuts. My usual schedule when my horses are racing is this. First, they race every 7-10 days or so. With 1-2 months off during the year. Next, when racing. Lets say they raced on Sunday and are going to race again Tuesday in 9 days. They get Monday off after the race where they are just turned out for the day. Tuesday-Fri they jog (when I say jog I mean at a slow clip the wrong way of the track) for 5 miles. Or they swim in a pool. We had a big indoor pool that I swam a lot of my horses in. I think at one point when I started swimming them I had a streak of 19 straight races where horses won their first race after starting to swim. Keeps them fresh, keeps their legs from taking a pounding. But regardless, they were worked. They weren't just sitting their doing nothing. Usually they would swim for 25-30 minutes each day. Round and around they would go. So after swimming or jogging from Tues to Fri., Saturday they would go 2 training trips. These are miles where we hook the horse up in full equipment, take him on the track, jog for 3 miles the wrong way, and then turn him the right way of the track and go a mile in about 2:30 or so. Then you bring him in, wait 15 minutes, go out again and train him in about 2:10 or so. Now bear in mind this is while hooked up to a jog cart, not a race bike, so add on at least 10 seconds there, and its also being done on a farm track, which is always slower than a race track where the races happen. So if a horse usually races a mile in 1:55, a 2:10 mile to a jog cart on a farm track is a good, solid workout. Now, after doing that, Sunday the horse may get off or maybe jog a few miles, Monday he will jog or swim the regular way he does any other day, and Tuesday he races. in addition, I turned my horses out in the paddock EVERY day, and they would spend 3-4 hours out there playing with other horses, eating grass, whatever, as long as they weren't kept couped up in that stall all day. I was happy and so were they.backbreaker said:
My point to all this is, the horses were worked just about every day, and they raced all the time. Compare that with a Tbred and its like night and day. They might get out of their stall 10 times in 30 days to actually workout. Its crazy. And you know what, you hardly ever ever ever saw a standardbred horse break down in the middle of a race. I mean it just does not happen. I have seen literally hundreds of thousands of harness races, and I think I may have seen it twice? Tbreds? Happens all the time. ALL the time. Hell I hate even watching a T bred race because I am afraid I am going to see a horse snap a leg while running down the stretch run. Even in all my years of training with hundreds of horses, I never had it happen to me. There is a reason for this imo. And that is harness horses are conditioned to work, they are used to the training. They are tough. T breds are tough too, but the trainers are pvssies and work them like little girls.
Have never understood it and never will.
