Investing in the Stock Market.

Bible_Belt

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The stock market is a sleazy business, especially when anyone is selling a system to pick stocks. I was not aware of the IBD upselling. The only useful thing about the paper was that they included a relative strength against the market as one of their reported numbers. At the time, the strongest stocks were in bold; I have not looked at it lately, and even then I had expensive computer programs to do the screening for me instead of using IBD. There are too many stocks to buy them all, but an average investor would do well to make this list of the strongest stocks in the market his list of possible plays, and then choose individual plays based on additional criteria. Other than that system, which is available for only the cost of the paper, I agree that pretty much whatever else they have to sell is a waste of money. Thanks for sharing your experiences with them. It is a red flag when they always seem to have a more expensive system to sell.
 

GQ_Confidence_1

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I've been trading on and off since '99. I read tons of books, went through different stages, and at age 28, I've got a really good framework for the rest of my life.

Don't be afraid to put time and effort into. The market is going to be around for the rest of your life. What makes the market go up and down is never going to change (fear and greed). As you get older, you get more experience, you have more money to trade/invest with, and your possibilities go way up.

My rules...

1). Eliminate all the junk. 98% of all the stuff ever written or said about the market is useless. CNBC, hot tips, rumors, fly by night promoters (guys like Wade Cook), message board silliness on yahoo, etc. You'll make your life very easy doing this.

2)Read the really good stuff. Buffett, Jim Rogers, the Market Wizards series of books. Understand what the market is, understand some general principles (buy on fear, sell hysteria). If you were really grounded in the fundamentals, you wouldn't have been suprised by the tech bubble and subsequent collapse.

I know I wasn't grounded at all in the fundamentals in '99, '00. It'd be like trying to surf and not understanding the cycles of the ocean. You can surf for a little while, but if you don't understand how things can change, you can go under water (and lose your board and maybe drown and die).

Understand why top traders and investors make money. It's not just luck or mysticism. Buffett has been making money consistently for 50+ years!! The guy was a millionaire in his 20's. Study him the way you'd study sosuave and girls. Jim Rogers has made gazillons since he bought commodities at the their low in '98. The guys on TV and the "experts" touted in the press are rank amateurs compared to these guys.

3). Think for yourself and observe what's going on around you. I live in California and in the last few years, "expert" after "expert" said there was no real estate bubble. Of course there was a bubble, the market is going down and alot of people are going to get hurt in the next few years. In some states no one can afford the property taxes. You've got to be a critical thinker, you have to understand that people have biases and flaws, people believe what they want to believe.

When you observe life outside of trading (dating, women, work, the problems and trials people have), no one is going to take that and suddenly become super logical and orderly when they buy or sell a stock. You have to see the big picture. See the market as more than just a bunch of quotes at the bottom of a screen.

4). Come up with a plan and stick to it. Only trade when you have an edge. Using a texas hold'em analogy, only trade when you get AA or KK dealt to you. Don't throw your money away on 7-2 offsuit just because someone in the back of the card room thinks it's a good idea (i.e. Cramer telling you what to do).

Use analogies and metaphors to better understand the market. This has really helped me "see" the market and get better clarity. Play around with it. What would your trades look like if they were poker hands? Pocket aces? Pocket kings? 10-2 offsuit? Is someone distracting you in the card room (i.e.CNBC on in the background)?

I have to have clarity about what I'm doing to be successful. I have to have peace and quiet. I don't want to play in a card room where there's 10,000 people in the stands, and they're all screaming different opinions at me (The FED will do this, the FED will do that, watch the CPI, etc). The top traders all say "think independently" for a reason.

Maybe this will sound arrogant or like I'm full of it, but most people fail in the market because they just don't know what they're doing. It'd be like sitting down at a Texas Hold'em game and not really understanding the rules. You place bets here and there, but you don't really "get it". You don't see how CANSLIM, value investing, growth, hedge funds, how they all fit together and how they all occupy seats at the same table. You don't see how your dealer (i.e. your brokerage house) is selling a bunch of stuff people don't really need (research, fancy quotes).

It's just like anything else in life. You've got to be different than the crowd to get better results than the crowd. If you want Cindy Crawford, you can't just be the average joe on the street.

Best of success guys.
 

GQ_Confidence_1

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I got into the market in late '98 and was really fascinated by the whole thing. It still fascinates me alot (thus the long posts ;) )

I watched CNBC, I watched Wade Cook on tv talk about rolling stocks, options, channeling, all these terms and all this jargon. I paper traded for alot of '98 and actually made some real money in early '99 (and subsequently kept it which I'm proud of). But then the market changed in the summer of '99, I got nervous, and back to the poker analogy, I didn't know the value of my hands anymore. Was I holding QQ or J-2? If the FED raised rates, would that change the rules of the game? The whole thing got fuzzy. I got up from the table and left the room.

Then I spent some time studying, getting back to the fundamentals and the big picture. For alot of these strategies (dogs of the dow, buy X at the 52 week low, buy triangles or breakouts), I just don't know the odds of them. Am I holding pocket queens, or 8-5? Or are they "trick cards"? One minute they are AA, the next, they are 2-2 (i.e. strategies that lose their effectiveness over time).

The big guys like Buffett, Rogers, Templeton, these guys are playing QQ or higher, just waiting and waiting for their turn. Day trading is like going through alot of hands every hour, looking for little edges and quirks. Hedge funds sit at the table and instead of betting $1 like everyone else, they borrow 10x that and bet $11.

It's not hard to see how everything fits together. You absolutely have to know what kind of cards you're playing to be successful over the long term. Some of this stuff...IBD, technicals, I just don't know.

The system doesn't mean anything. The money is made by how you react and use it. Are you disciplined enough to use it? Are you going to stray?

You might make alot more money by taking what you know and playing a different game. Use your knowledge of economic cycles and buy and sell real estate.

There's a great Buffett video on Google, he's a giving a speech to the University of Florida. Just a great speech with priceless wisdom. The guy is worth $40 billion. He's Casanova, Don Juan and James Bond to the nth degree. You might do alot better just applying some of his wisdom to business or to your life.

Stay flexible and keep your possibilities open. That's about it for now, it's getting late...
 

GQ_Confidence_1

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I loved Buffett's quote about risk, "don't risk what you have and want, for what you don't have and don't want".

He's got a great life philosophy too.
 

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Reyaj

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Alright... lets get some real figures going here.. and no boasting please, be as honest as possible..

Overall and for yourself... how much money have you made overall investing in the stock market?

I'll be honest about myself. I'm probably down around-1500 on a stock that I am long of.
 

spider_007

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Jayer said:
Alright... lets get some real figures going here.. and no boasting please, be as honest as possible..
my current status
http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b151/spider007/123-1.jpg

On 14th Sears canada is having a vote to sell out to sears holdings, I'm hoping idiots won't sell out for $18 per share being offered (loss of 3 bucks per share) and i'm hoping i'll jump up to at least $30 per share (near where it was before the atempted takeover). I'd be one happy camper:cool:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:SCC I might trow a few bucks more in there if there is a rally before they come out with the resoults.

I bought Rogers on Friday....I hope i'm not too late to the party.....seems like a decen company and a leader in it's field.

Excall Is spliting into 2 companies.....not sure if it's a good thing or bad:whistle:
 

spider_007

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Jayer said:
Alright... lets get some real figures going here.. and no boasting please, be as honest as possible..
my current status
http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b151/spider007/123-1.jpg

On 14th Sears canada is having a vote to sell out to sears holdings, I'm hoping idiots won't sell out for $18 per share being offered (loss of 3 bucks per share) and i'm hoping i'll jump up to at least $30 per share. I'd be one happy camper:cool:
 

spider_007

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Jayer said:
Anyone else?
If Sears Canada does sell out... you are saying the stock will rise?
no opposite

i'm not experienced enough nor do i know enough to say anything (so your on your own, for all i know i could be deadly WRONG!!!!)

to me however it makes sence. If it was treading for 35-36 before it plunged down on the offer from Sears Holdings for $18 per share. To me it makes sence that it would go up close to where it was at (35-35) if the offer fails.

Keep in mind this is coming from a guy that will losse 2-300$ at most even if it does get taken over for 18 per share. No skin of my back.

all this depends on the vote that'll hapen on 14th. they need 2/3 to take them over, and since nobody wants to lose money, i'm sure everybody will vote against it......but then again, they already own 50 or so percent of Sears Canada
 
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Reyaj

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"Market Capitalization tells you the value of the company, or what the market says its worth"

"IT is calculated by multiplying the current price of the stock by the number of shares outstanding"


So what exactly does that mean? The number of shares outstanding is the number of shares which are not owned correct? How does this tell you the value of a company if it doesn't account for shares which are owned?
 

spider_007

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I have a question:

If the company makes money only from shares that it sells on an IPO. What is the incentive to move the stock once all the shares are sold?
 

Bible_Belt

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Usually the corporate officers will all own large amounts of shares, but the bigger reason is that as the stock price goes up, and the company makes money for its investors, it becomes easier for the company to conduct future offerings and raise more capital. If the IPO crashes, no one will want to make future investments in the company.
 

spider_007

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Bible_Belt said:
Usually the corporate officers will all own large amounts of shares,
but they can't traid them, can they? I mean, wouldn't that be insider trading? Especialy the emplyees that own the stock.
 

Bible_Belt

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Insiders can't "trade" in the sense of repeated buying and selling like we would trade, but they can always sell their holdings by filing the required disclosure forms with the SEC beforehand. Here is a link to all of the legal trading by insiders that took place on just one day:

http://www.insider-monitor.com/sellday.html

I think that info changes every trading day, but this was in the 11-16 report:

MSFT MICROSOFT GATES WILLIAM H III (Director)

Sell 1,000,000 @ 29.40, proceeds: $29,403,684

remaining holdings: 937,499,336 shares
 

At this point you probably have a woman (or multiple women) chasing you around, calling you all the time, wanting to be with you. So let's talk about how to KEEP a woman interested in you once you have her. This is BIG! There is nothing worse than getting dumped by a woman that you really, really like.

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