Foolproof betting method
- Thread starter Fluffy
- Start date
Bonhomme
Master Don Juan
I know of a guy (a friend of one of my best buddies) who makes net winnings at the race track. He has a brilliantly-conceived system, and loses more often than he wins, but wins pretty big when he does win ... which is often enough.
Part of it involves betting against the irrational bets of most track-goers (losers) who skew the odds away from what they should be. Another part is to bet where there's a lot of action, and therefore the house spread is low.
Part of it involves betting against the irrational bets of most track-goers (losers) who skew the odds away from what they should be. Another part is to bet where there's a lot of action, and therefore the house spread is low.
alright I realise that using the idea I came up with wont work when betting on team sports.backbreaker said:
However, it can be used in horse racing to minimise risk?
this friday i bet on a competition, looks similar to the following
A- 5
B- 7
C- 8
D- 9
E- 9
F- 10
G- 10
H- 11
I- 11
J- 11
K- 11
By what I know the ones most likely to win are either A, D, G, I & K. Seeing as A has the lowest odds I can only bet what I win off A. So I put 10 on all of them. Later on all the ones I predicted moved into the top 5 positions. If it was game based on chance then I would have a pr of 4/11 that Ill win and 1/11 that i break even. However, it is not chance the odds that one of the ones I tip will win are far greater and I have effectively decreased my risk.
PS: Im pretty sure parimutal betting is used in sports aswell, making it easy to beat if you know your stuff.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
that's pretty much horse racing in a nutshell dude.. that's not a system. the only way to turn a constant profit is to make financially sound bets when the opprotunity presents itself.
If my avg odds at p/o are 5 to 1 and I win at say the base avg, which is 32 percent, i'm up.
most people can win at 32 percent of their races... that's not THAT hard to do. hell the public is right 1/3rd of the time.
however the publics avg winning odd is about 1.5 so you see the delmia that persents itself.
the key to all is access to information and what you know, or undersatnd that the general public doesn't, and also at the same time, undresatnding wHY a horse is at the odds that he is at and can it be overcame and if so why.
a horse going from a MSW to an Allowenance x1 race will usually be at about 11-1 or so, because he is going from racing against a group of horses that have never won, to a race where everyone HAS run. usually it takes a horse a couple of jumps to get used to the condition before he is live. hence you can see why the horse is usually 11 to 1.
But let's say I saw his last race, he lost ground the entire way, displayed a turn of foot while not changing leads in the stretch and still pulled away, and that ws only his 3rd or so start in his life and has a couple of SOLID workouts in between... that COULD be a live horse. In that situtation I have the horse circled and I wait until the tote for the race come sup.. if his morning line is12-1 and he opens, keyword being OPENs at anything around half of that or less that's a live horse.. some of the connections put alot of money on that horse earlier in the day. you have to learn how to add up the peices... you have to be able to look at a toteboard and know if there is just some dumbass int he crowd bridgejumping, or if thre is smart money on a horse..
even then I won't make a decision until I see the horse in the post parade.
I do this for a livign, but what people don't know nor care to understand, is I spent more time studing horse racing, money management and so forth that most people spend in college.. I've been preparing for this since I was 17 and I'm 24, and I've been doing this full time a little less than 2 years. That's5 plus years, studying whenever I got the chance without making a single bet. Reading, watcing races, learning whatever I could.
you get out of it what you put in it. you have to know more than the dildo sitting next to you.
The best "training track" on earth to bet at is prairie meadows in Iowa.... I barely bother preparing myself anymore. that might be the most corrupt track on earth. the only way you can turn a profit is to know the jockies trainers and WATCH THE TOTE BOARD. I bet it once a week, usually Tuesdays because nothing else is running, to keep my skills honed. if you can turn a profit at prairie meadows, you can turn a profit anywhere. 30/1 morning line horses going off at 1/5 and drawing off. it's important to learn the difference between smart money and dumb money
If my avg odds at p/o are 5 to 1 and I win at say the base avg, which is 32 percent, i'm up.
most people can win at 32 percent of their races... that's not THAT hard to do. hell the public is right 1/3rd of the time.
however the publics avg winning odd is about 1.5 so you see the delmia that persents itself.
the key to all is access to information and what you know, or undersatnd that the general public doesn't, and also at the same time, undresatnding wHY a horse is at the odds that he is at and can it be overcame and if so why.
a horse going from a MSW to an Allowenance x1 race will usually be at about 11-1 or so, because he is going from racing against a group of horses that have never won, to a race where everyone HAS run. usually it takes a horse a couple of jumps to get used to the condition before he is live. hence you can see why the horse is usually 11 to 1.
But let's say I saw his last race, he lost ground the entire way, displayed a turn of foot while not changing leads in the stretch and still pulled away, and that ws only his 3rd or so start in his life and has a couple of SOLID workouts in between... that COULD be a live horse. In that situtation I have the horse circled and I wait until the tote for the race come sup.. if his morning line is12-1 and he opens, keyword being OPENs at anything around half of that or less that's a live horse.. some of the connections put alot of money on that horse earlier in the day. you have to learn how to add up the peices... you have to be able to look at a toteboard and know if there is just some dumbass int he crowd bridgejumping, or if thre is smart money on a horse..
even then I won't make a decision until I see the horse in the post parade.
I do this for a livign, but what people don't know nor care to understand, is I spent more time studing horse racing, money management and so forth that most people spend in college.. I've been preparing for this since I was 17 and I'm 24, and I've been doing this full time a little less than 2 years. That's5 plus years, studying whenever I got the chance without making a single bet. Reading, watcing races, learning whatever I could.
you get out of it what you put in it. you have to know more than the dildo sitting next to you.
The best "training track" on earth to bet at is prairie meadows in Iowa.... I barely bother preparing myself anymore. that might be the most corrupt track on earth. the only way you can turn a profit is to know the jockies trainers and WATCH THE TOTE BOARD. I bet it once a week, usually Tuesdays because nothing else is running, to keep my skills honed. if you can turn a profit at prairie meadows, you can turn a profit anywhere. 30/1 morning line horses going off at 1/5 and drawing off. it's important to learn the difference between smart money and dumb money
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
Fluffy said:
you have a hell of alot to learn, and that's not a slight against you, but trust me, there is no forulma that can be used when coming to horse racing to turn a constistant profit.
I've tried.. for 6 years.
it was only when I put down the calculator and started learning how to watch a horse racing and learning about horse racing, and eventually learned more than other people that I started to turn a profit.
you are probably right about the para-mutaul wagering, it's by far the best way. However I know in Dubai there is straight book wagering..a ctually there is NO wagering, you have to go to england to place a bet!
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
I'll give you a tip.Fluffy said:
the closest thing I came to figuering out a type of foumla was trainer stats + workouts.
go to brisnet.com an sign up. they have stats for just about everything. carp you wouldn't even think about. Not many peopple at the track know this trianer is .40% when he raises his horse up two classes after 2 sttarts at a sprint and going to a route.
But even that. To make a profit at horse racing or any game, you have to realize/know something that the avg person doesn't. That that 1 length win he made was with a horrible trip and still did it under wrap. That the dead last he had last race he bleed out and how has lassix, and the trainer is 40% on first time lassix
The best day I had this year was Dubai World Cup day, march 31st. I wasn't even in the country, I was actually in Dubai, but I had an internet connection and made my bets via online before I actually went to Dubai becuase you can't bet in dubai.. plus that would have defeated the purpose.. id idn't want to bet against the english/uk pool I wanted the American pool. why?
because they are ignorant, horribly ignorant when it comes to international racing.
lava man going off as the 5/2 fav.. for no other reason than that was the only horse that everyone "knew" in the race.
Lava man is a California based horse who can't win a race outside of his state, and you want to ship him half way across the world to race on a surface he isn't that good on (turf?) against the creme de la creme in the world...yeah 7/2 baby.
I couldn't believe my eyes when Admire Moon was going off at 12-1.... in the American pool. To put that in perspective, in the English pool he was about 7/5 and was the odds on fav.. because he was probably the best grass horse in the world. however he's from Japan and Americans don't know jack **** about Japanese racing, even though it come son TV all the time and i had seen 5 of his races already. I mean I would be lying if i said I KNEW he was going to win, but he was going to be in the running..I liked a couple of other horses, but f that. That's like me giving you 12-1 on Curlin in a Grade 2 race
Even in the Sheema Classic where Vengeance of Rain won, he figured, but american tote had him going off at I think 9 to 1 and honey ryder, an overrated todd pletcher horse, going off like at 3-1. I had youmzain, another japanese based horse.... I think he finished 2nd. But I made more than enough money on Kelly's Landing and Admire Moon.
the only race they got right was Invasor, who wasn't even 100% and was much the best in that race. Anyone who knew anything knew Discreet Cat hat little to no chance... and was not a true 2nd choice.. he's held togehter by a paper clip and is basically a glorifed sprinter trying to go double the distance what his pedigree entales.
Also, a tidbit for ya... The sire (dad) of Discreet CAt.. who in all honesty is probably the 2nd best older horse in the world (on the dirt) when healthy... (that's the key, he is never healthy, and he wasn't healthy that race, he had just scrated out of a race 2 weeks earlier) is Forestry (by storm cat)
forsestry is also the sire of the green money, who is the most expensive horse ....EVER.
he sold last year for 16.4 million dollars
here is a pic of him
http://www.pedigreequery.com/the+green+monkey
I tell ya, if you ever had to design a race horse... he's the model... but the horse, just like Discreet cat and Forestry, are held together by paper clips.. the money pulled an ass muscle and hasn't raced and can't outrun a trailer
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
both
it pays to know a good trainer or a good cute young exercise rider or to.
but if you follow horses you can put two and two together
I don't ever bet quarter horses, but I think wednesday afternoon someone I know that works horses in the morning (an attractive young female....go to a track EARLY in the morning.. it's an untapped gold mine. down to earth, hot young women everywhere.. and they have to be small because there are weight restrictions) told me "yeah, they are trying to break the track record later on tonight with this horse."
I promptly made a nice sized bet. didn't pay much at ALL because she was much the best... but who doesn't like free money? 40 cents on the dollar. For the record they missed the track record by 2 tenths of a second.. probably would have got it by the jockey eased the horse up.. they won by 15 lengths (it was 870 yards, or 4 1/2 furlongs)
My odds I usually find acceptable are about 6-1 without any inside knowledge or assurances or anything. however the most money I have made so far this year on an American race, was I think 8-5 or close to it. I go to clocker's corner most mornings to watch the horses work out at Santa Anita. It's a drive but it's what I do horse racing for.. I love it. Anyway, there's this filly working in the mornings, and she's gliding with ease over the dirt. not even breaking a sweet and drilling 5F's in 58 and change. That's hella fast for a workout.. that's top class in the world quality for a workout. And I mean her ears are just pricked, tail wagging... she's literary having fun, not trying.
I ask a friend who the F is this horse? I had seen her workout 3 times and was jaw dropped by each one of them. Her name is Magnificence (remember this name) and she hadn't ran yet. This was I think when I FIRST got out here to SoCal in January. She made her debut in early February.
So the race comes up, and obviously the morning line odds maker has seen what I saw, and he makes her the 3-1 M/L which is not common for ANY first time starter, well bred or not (which she is.. Stormy Atlantic, they paid 115k for her at a yearling sale.. that's a STEAL of epic proportions)
i was hoping to get 5ish to one, but I wasn't deterred. So the race come sup, it was the first race of what was one of the better cards at Santa Anita this year. She gets DRILLED down to even money.. I was like damn. someone really likes her. I wasn't going to make a bet, but then I thought to myself.... do you really think she has a chance of loosing? from what I saw.. I figured you are looking at one of the best fillies in the world... so no.
I'm not going to tell you how much I plumped down, but it was a knot.
So the race starts and she stands in the gate.. I ws like ****, there goes that one. So she finally gets into stride.. she's 15-18 lentghs back... and you can tell that Solis (the jockey) isn't asking her to do anything...a nd she's gaining hella ground. he's as still as a statue on her. By the time they hit the turn she's neck and neck with the leader. Solis pops her one time to get her to change leads and she put a move on the field that you can hear the crowd oohhh and ahhh ing... next thing you know she's ahead by 5.. in no more than 5 strides. she' on the front lead and again.. she was tapped once and solis had her under a death grip, ahead now by about 7 and she's just loving it out there.. tail just wagging, ears going up and down (that's good, means she's having fun).
She ran a 96 Beyer that race. to put that in perspective.. there were horses in the Kentucky derby that had never ran a 96.. a 96 wo uldn't have won the derby but still... and she's not a colt
She paid$ $5.80 for a 2 dollar bet. i was done for the day (remember it was a huge bet) I had another race i had planned on betting but I just decided to be a spectator the rest of the day, and I'm glad I did to because the horse I wanted to bet on wasn't as good as I thought.
someone (I would presume Darby) offered the owner about 2 million for her after that race and he (rightfully) turned them down.
You hear about Rags to Riches... but she wasn't NOOOOO part of Magnificence up to a mile.. she's not bred to go much father so Rags would probably get her... but in Magnificence's next race she ran a freakin 109 Beyer.. that would have put her a nose behind Street Sense in the derby if not won it. Rag's highest beyer is a 107. you probably have never heard of Magnificence because the trainer is not a prima dona like Pletcher is plus she's been turned out, she's hurt and will be back in the fall.
it pays to know a good trainer or a good cute young exercise rider or to.
but if you follow horses you can put two and two together
I don't ever bet quarter horses, but I think wednesday afternoon someone I know that works horses in the morning (an attractive young female....go to a track EARLY in the morning.. it's an untapped gold mine. down to earth, hot young women everywhere.. and they have to be small because there are weight restrictions) told me "yeah, they are trying to break the track record later on tonight with this horse."
I promptly made a nice sized bet. didn't pay much at ALL because she was much the best... but who doesn't like free money? 40 cents on the dollar. For the record they missed the track record by 2 tenths of a second.. probably would have got it by the jockey eased the horse up.. they won by 15 lengths (it was 870 yards, or 4 1/2 furlongs)
My odds I usually find acceptable are about 6-1 without any inside knowledge or assurances or anything. however the most money I have made so far this year on an American race, was I think 8-5 or close to it. I go to clocker's corner most mornings to watch the horses work out at Santa Anita. It's a drive but it's what I do horse racing for.. I love it. Anyway, there's this filly working in the mornings, and she's gliding with ease over the dirt. not even breaking a sweet and drilling 5F's in 58 and change. That's hella fast for a workout.. that's top class in the world quality for a workout. And I mean her ears are just pricked, tail wagging... she's literary having fun, not trying.
I ask a friend who the F is this horse? I had seen her workout 3 times and was jaw dropped by each one of them. Her name is Magnificence (remember this name) and she hadn't ran yet. This was I think when I FIRST got out here to SoCal in January. She made her debut in early February.
So the race comes up, and obviously the morning line odds maker has seen what I saw, and he makes her the 3-1 M/L which is not common for ANY first time starter, well bred or not (which she is.. Stormy Atlantic, they paid 115k for her at a yearling sale.. that's a STEAL of epic proportions)
i was hoping to get 5ish to one, but I wasn't deterred. So the race come sup, it was the first race of what was one of the better cards at Santa Anita this year. She gets DRILLED down to even money.. I was like damn. someone really likes her. I wasn't going to make a bet, but then I thought to myself.... do you really think she has a chance of loosing? from what I saw.. I figured you are looking at one of the best fillies in the world... so no.
I'm not going to tell you how much I plumped down, but it was a knot.
So the race starts and she stands in the gate.. I ws like ****, there goes that one. So she finally gets into stride.. she's 15-18 lentghs back... and you can tell that Solis (the jockey) isn't asking her to do anything...a nd she's gaining hella ground. he's as still as a statue on her. By the time they hit the turn she's neck and neck with the leader. Solis pops her one time to get her to change leads and she put a move on the field that you can hear the crowd oohhh and ahhh ing... next thing you know she's ahead by 5.. in no more than 5 strides. she' on the front lead and again.. she was tapped once and solis had her under a death grip, ahead now by about 7 and she's just loving it out there.. tail just wagging, ears going up and down (that's good, means she's having fun).
She ran a 96 Beyer that race. to put that in perspective.. there were horses in the Kentucky derby that had never ran a 96.. a 96 wo uldn't have won the derby but still... and she's not a colt
She paid$ $5.80 for a 2 dollar bet. i was done for the day (remember it was a huge bet) I had another race i had planned on betting but I just decided to be a spectator the rest of the day, and I'm glad I did to because the horse I wanted to bet on wasn't as good as I thought.
someone (I would presume Darby) offered the owner about 2 million for her after that race and he (rightfully) turned them down.
You hear about Rags to Riches... but she wasn't NOOOOO part of Magnificence up to a mile.. she's not bred to go much father so Rags would probably get her... but in Magnificence's next race she ran a freakin 109 Beyer.. that would have put her a nose behind Street Sense in the derby if not won it. Rag's highest beyer is a 107. you probably have never heard of Magnificence because the trainer is not a prima dona like Pletcher is plus she's been turned out, she's hurt and will be back in the fall.
PeterNorthisawesome
Banned
lol this is simple algebra and multiplication... you can use this to "win" or break even if you bet on 2 things. You have to have extra money to spend too since you're betting double.
backbreaker
Master Don Juan
again, I'll take these payoffs any day of the week over regular sportsbooks
http://drf.com/results/24/rHOL24.html?rn=239573#9
http://drf.com/results/24/rHOL24.html?rn=239573#9
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