well I'm living proof that there is. there are alot of people scattered across the country/world who do as well
alot of people don't understand however, I spent since I turned 17 dicecting this game. not watching in past time hours upon hours. when I wasn't working on my company I was breaking down races, learning pedigrees, track biases, tendencies of certain jockies and trainers.. I am a true student of the game. I could probably write a mini encyclopedia with everything I know about horse racing. alot of times I don't even have to look at race cards, I know everything I need to know by just knowing the name of the horse, that's how many races I watch, and that's the type of dedication it takes. The reason why 95% of people who come to the track don't make a profit (besides the fact that's it's para-mutal wagering, and it's not possible) is because 95% of people aren't willing to put that much effort into something.
however to answer your post, horse racing is one of the only sports in the country NOT rigged for you to be a loser. it's Para-Mutual wagering. I'm not betting against the track. I'm betting against everyone else in the stands.
the track is going to get a certain percentage (takeout) of the handle regardless. they could care less who actually wins.
you have trainers who cheat, jockies who can't ride to save their lives, but these are all things you come to learn when you watch enough races.
I watch, actually sit down and Watch over 100 races on avg a day. (thank god for racereplays.com)
my dad goes to the track, introduced me to the game when I was 7, and he couldn't hold a candle to me when it comes to handicapping a race.
It's actually pretty simple. know your win percentage and know what it's going to take to make a positive ROI. As good of as a handicapper as you may be, you aren't going to win every race. that's where most people fail. once you realize that race you move on... how can i make money if I can't win every race. Well, you do so by having a positive ROI. I win at about a 38% clip of races I actually bet on. That's higher than avg, but that's not the sole reason I actually turn a profit. I fi was betting on 7/5 shots all day long I would still be in the hole.
I started making money when I figured out when NOT to bet.
I'll give you 2 examples, a losing one and a winning one but both would you on the way to a long term profit.
Take this years Belmont. I even made a post here about it. I put a HUGE amount of money, about triple my normal bet, on imawildandcrazyguy.
why? he wasn't the best horse in the race, Curlin was (is). However, considering he was 1) bred to run farther than anyone in the race besides rags to riches and 2) finished a half a lengh behind curlin in the kentucky derby and got a month off as opposed to Curlin who got 2 weeks off, and curlin was 7/5 and Imawildandcrazyguy was I think 19 to 1, it wasn't even a tough bet to make.
I figured if the pace setup rigiht, with hard spun going to the front, CP west on their tail, you would have a Rag's Curlin & imawildandcrazyguy trifecta. then the only question left was, did imawildandcrazyguy have enough kick to get past them. At 19 to 1, **** it's worth the risk. I knew i might loose. I knew I probably WAS going to loose, but it's what I call a 'sound bet" and had no problem with it.
this is where 90% of ALL handicappers fail. they fail to see that type of logic, but ti's that type of logic it takes to win races. 66^ of the time the best horse doesn't win, fav's only win 1 out of 3. I could see a situtation where curlin was to tired and the distance too much (which happened).. however hard spun's jockey didn't hit the lead and gave CP West and Slew's Tizzy an easy pace to go at, with imawildandcrazyguys late running style, I knew the race was over at the half mile pole. I had a very small amont on Rags as what I call a "drink money bet", like 30 bucks, no where near what i normally bet, not even close, and i made bout 130 bucks off of her.. enough for just that... drinks for the night. But if imawildandcrazyguy would have came home (and if he would had Tiago in 2nd and Rags in 3rd which was a long, LONG shot to happen, but I would have been done for the rest of the year, on a 2 dollar bet.. probably 500k dollar payoff tri).. but if imawildandcrazyguy could have came home, and given the right race with the right pace I still think he could have, he proved that in the derby I would have banked over 200k.
My biggest score of the year and my 2nd biggest ever came 2-3 weeks ago at Hollywood park. I would be lying if I said it was anythnig more tan an extremely educated guess.
Bright Prediction, a horse, better yet gelding, who was trained by Art Sherman, who was one of the better ones in the buisness, had been running this horse at the 10,000 claiming level on dirt and getting beat. not badly beated.. but beaten. A trainer who was 55% at the meet at hollywood with like 6 starters and had an ROI already of like 26 dollars per dollar, claimed him, switched him to turf in a 35,000 claiming race.
that's a HUGE jump. that's about a 4 and in some places 5 level jump. But then I looked back and saw he had NEVER in his life ran on grass. humm... I knew by name of the horse the stallion was Dance Brightly, who himself is by Mr. prospector whoose horses can run on grahm crackers if you made them. Dance Brighly himself sired a Virgnina Derby winner, which is a Grade 2 Turf race. All in all, within Bright perdictions 3x pedigree line, he had Mr Prospector, Danzing (GREAT turf sire, sire of hard spun, who will be a better turf horse than dirt) and Olympio who himself was no slouch on the turf.
this horse might not be a monster on the turf,b ut his I came to the conclusion that whatever he did, he was going to do his best running ON the turf. Why he hadn't been tried on the turf I have no idea. But he hadn't, and he was bred to love it (or at least take to it) and this trainer, cheating or not I dont' know but was pulling rabbits out of his ass left and right.
even wit that said, the betting choice fav, I forgot.. I know it was a Ron Ellis horse becaus I was looking at his hot ass 18 year old Daughter before the race (she's about an HB8). I think iminthemood. I am probably wrong. Regardless, I didn't like him to win. he never won. he was a money burner. he was what I call a defalt betting choice, which is when people can't find something they like so they take the lesser of the evils.
So I went into the day knowing i had a live longshot, or at least one I thought to be one.
and this is why I LOVE hollywood park. 15 horse field.. the horse goes off at.. get this..81 to 1. I am not going to tell you how much I put down (not THAT much because the more you put odwn the lower the odds go) but it was enough to where I was guaranteed to have a profit for the rest of the year regardless of what happens.
Looking at his past races he came from the back and tired to have a late kick and never was strong enough. I knew when they hit the 7/8ths pole I had this bet won. He was a head behind the tiring leader and hadn't even been asked yet.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/horse...189.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-horse_raci
He ended up in a duel and pulled away. 2nd biggest score of my life. the same perdicument as the one in the Belmont except it worked out. I didn't think he was the best horse in the race, but the horse should have been, with that breeding, no more than 10 to 1. NO more. that's turf breeding up and down. 81 to 1? you have to take a stab.
I was one of the few people alive in the pick 6 after that..and got knocked out by a freakin fav. My horse I WANTED got bumped so bad he was knocked sideway or else he might hve won. and they took down the horse that did it but he still only got moved up to 3rd. I lost the next leg anyway so it wouldn't have mattered.
There are some races when 8/5 is an overlay. If invasor would have ran in the Suburban, anything over even money i would have plopped down. he wasn't loosing that race. Same with Curlin in the arkansas derby. i racked up. there was no way in hell Curlin was going to loose that race. Pletcher sent in an overmatched allowence horse named deadly dealer that took enough money that I actually got 8/5 on Curlin, who should have been 1/5
Another reason... the man who thinks he can and the man who thinks he can't are usually both right. I never took NO for an answer. it got to the point , even when I had my company, this was the only possible future life for me. Failure wasn't an option.
with that attitude you have, that everything is rigged against you, you are doomed for failure.
