Current crypto trends

[BackInTheGame78]

I learned from my mentor who is a whale you get out before the herd, I know people don't talk about TA on here but man even if you know the basics. TA it can do wonders when it comes to taking profits. The normie guy is waiting for a 1000X on his coin to go up lmfao, not understanding resistance areas, RSI etc.

This is something that I have been focusing on, most people who are coming in this space are going to get rekt. I just saw someone posting on Twitter who just got approved for a 100K American Express credit card and he bought WIF (a Solana meme) and is putting it on 50X leverage (insane)

Greed leads to people doing goofy stuff, I've learned it's best to take profits conservatively than buy the dips (or massive corrections) better to leave with something than leave with nothing

I got into that big time and got pretty good at it over a year and a half or so I was doing it

 

[FlexpertHamilton]

Does anyone know how to calculate eth gas fees? I have TVK and ERN tokens in my coinbase wallet that I forgot to move to my main wallet yrs ago. When I try to transfer it says I need eth for the network fees and it doesn't seem to let me just take the fees directly from the TVK/ERN.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Does anyone know how to calculate eth gas fees? I have TVK and ERN tokens in my coinbase wallet that I forgot to move to my main wallet yrs ago. When I try to transfer it says I need eth for the network fees and it doesn't seem to let me just take the fees directly from the TVK/ERN.

There are sites that estimate it. Basically the more "off" times have less gas, ie, earlier in the mornings and later at night. Primetime during the afternoons and early evenings are usually the most expensive.

Also when prices are significantly moving in one direction or the other, it tends to be higher as well.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Was just coming to check in, I might go in, bitcoin is up 44% from last month, should of went in earlier ****

Now that Bitcoin is an etf you can daytrade it on margin from a us broker. Shyt just got real, if you have 25k. You can swing trade 1000-2000 shares of FBTC and it moves a couple of points a day.

 

[Divorced w 3]

I got into that big time and got pretty good at it over a year and a half or so I was doing it

If you understand technical analysis on these coins and get leverage you can absolutely make a killing. I made like 25k a couple years ago. I set my trade, I literally took a nap, I set my loss and profit and I dressed up like Kurt cobain and smoked weed all night on Halloween and my ***** of an ex wife had nothing to say about it bc I made 25k on kucoin.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

If you understand technical analysis on these coins and get leverage you can absolutely make a killing. I made like 25k a couple years ago. I set my trade, I literally took a nap, I set my loss and profit and I dressed up like Kurt cobain and smoked weed all night on Halloween and my ***** of an ex wife had nothing to say about it bc I made 25k on kucoin.

I shorted ETH yesterday based on break of the bullish daily trend line and rejection after it broke under the 1H trend line and retested...down over $400 since and I am in serious profit.

 

[Divorced w 3]

I learned from my mentor who is a whale you get out before the herd, I know people don't talk about TA on here but man even if you know the basics. TA it can do wonders when it comes to taking profits. The normie guy is waiting for a 1000X on his coin to go up lmfao, not understanding resistance areas, RSI etc.

This is something that I have been focusing on, most people who are coming in this space are going to get rekt. I just saw someone posting on Twitter who just got approved for a 100K American Express credit card and he bought WIF (a Solana meme) and is putting it on 50X leverage (insane)

Greed leads to people doing goofy stuff, I've learned it's best to take profits conservatively than buy the dips (or massive corrections) better to leave with something than leave with nothing

This guy gets it

 

[BackInTheGame78]

This guy gets it

Yup, you learn the hard way to always be taking profits and look for reversal signals.

Also selling and buying back much cheaper on big drops can be quite profitable.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Yup, you learn the hard way to always be taking profits and look for reversal signals.

Also selling and buying back much cheaper on big drops can be quite profitable.

This kid calls me and asks me to convert his entire retirement account to FBTC @35 in late January. Last sale was 55, high is 65. Kid was up 150k in six weeks.

 

[Murk]

Have you ever stopped and considered that you got lucky buying up some low cap alt at the low of the previous bear market that just happened to do well? Meanwhile, 90%+ of the stuff in that category did nothing or worse faded into oblivion?

No it's not luck I did my research. Did a 50x and I took 60% out into USDT to invest in other low caps.

Going very well this cycle.

 

[Solomon]

RWA's are beocming a major trend which I think will not go away I'm looking at XDC aka XInfin network and it honestly is an undervalued gem, not finacial advice do your research

 

[BackInTheGame78]

This kid calls me and asks me to convert his entire retirement account to FBTC @35 in late January. Last sale was 55, high is 65. Kid was up 150k in six weeks.

Hopefully he got out at the right time

 

[Divorced w 3]

Hopefully he got out at the right time

He’s not selling that ever. He had multiple hundreds in the real exposure on the chain.

 

[sangheilios]

I haven't posted on this thread in almost a month, but here are my thoughts on the market right now.

ETF demand is showing no signs of slowing down, in fact it may even accelerate. The small dip we had recently was due to large outflows from Grayscale, which does not have much more it can offload on the market. Meanwhile, the BTC halving is coming up in a few weeks, which combined with the ETF demand will result in an even greater shortage. I'm expecting BTC to be center stage for a quite a while now, while alts will kind of lag or just keep pace. However, the FED is continuing to pause interest rates and there's a lot going around that they may have the first rate cut in perhaps June. I'm expecting this year to be incredible and once QE, quantitative easing, comes back in is when we will see alts start to really rip, especially when BTC itself is and will be on a tear.

One thing I'm partially considering is if we hit an actual euphoric peak towards the end of even 2024. In my opinion, the true peak of the 2021 bull market was the spring of that year, late April/Early May, where euphoria was absolutely insane. What we saw there in November of 2021 was more like a dead cat bounce after it had tanked hard the summer of 2021. As per human psychology, this asset class will become significantly overvalued at some point, which is when we will see euphoria grip the market, and it will naturally have a cool off phase. The days of wild swings with BTC are over, but there will continue to be bull and bear phases.

This ETF stuff in my opinion changes the dynamics of this bull cycle but I'm also considering that this will more or less play out like a "normal" cycle. Realistically, I'm thinking we see BTC top out around 150k, while we will see many alts pull some incredible gains from even where we are at as I'm writing this.

I'm planning on long term holding the BTC that I currently possess. I have alt positions that I'm looking to sell off as we get into euphoria, with the intention of using those funds to rebuy during a bear market. I'm also considering trading a small percentage of my alts into BTC as they peak, maybe 5-10% of my stack, but not 100% sure if this is something I will do. The biggest mistake I made last cycle was not having a more solid plan as to what I would do when we entered into the bull market, which is not the case for me this time around.

 

[AAAgent]

I'm planning on long term holding the BTC that I currently possess. I have alt positions that I'm looking to sell off as we get into euphoria, with the intention of using those funds to rebuy during a bear market. I'm also considering trading a small percentage of my alts into BTC as they peak, maybe 5-10% of my stack, but not 100% sure if this is something I will do. The biggest mistake I made last cycle was not having a more solid plan as to what I would do when we entered into the bull market, which is not the case for me this time around.

Seems like a solid plan.

HODL on tight, be selective of alts, and prepare to execute.

 

[jaygreenb]

I haven't posted on this thread in almost a month, but here are my thoughts on the market right now.

ETF demand is showing no signs of slowing down, in fact it may even accelerate. The small dip we had recently was due to large outflows from Grayscale, which does not have much more it can offload on the market. Meanwhile, the BTC halving is coming up in a few weeks, which combined with the ETF demand will result in an even greater shortage. I'm expecting BTC to be center stage for a quite a while now, while alts will kind of lag or just keep pace. However, the FED is continuing to pause interest rates and there's a lot going around that they may have the first rate cut in perhaps June. I'm expecting this year to be incredible and once QE, quantitative easing, comes back in is when we will see alts start to really rip, especially when BTC itself is and will be on a tear.

One thing I'm partially considering is if we hit an actual euphoric peak towards the end of even 2024. In my opinion, the true peak of the 2021 bull market was the spring of that year, late April/Early May, where euphoria was absolutely insane. What we saw there in November of 2021 was more like a dead cat bounce after it had tanked hard the summer of 2021. As per human psychology, this asset class will become significantly overvalued at some point, which is when we will see euphoria grip the market, and it will naturally have a cool off phase. The days of wild swings with BTC are over, but there will continue to be bull and bear phases.

This ETF stuff in my opinion changes the dynamics of this bull cycle but I'm also considering that this will more or less play out like a "normal" cycle. Realistically, I'm thinking we see BTC top out around 150k, while we will see many alts pull some incredible gains from even where we are at as I'm writing this.

I'm planning on long term holding the BTC that I currently possess. I have alt positions that I'm looking to sell off as we get into euphoria, with the intention of using those funds to rebuy during a bear market. I'm also considering trading a small percentage of my alts into BTC as they peak, maybe 5-10% of my stack, but not 100% sure if this is something I will do. The biggest mistake I made last cycle was not having a more solid plan as to what I would do when we entered into the bull market, which is not the case for me this time around.

Heard from a few legit guys I follow that they think a left translated cycle where we peak early sometime in the next 3 to 6 months is very possible. Like you, going to pay attention to overall market euphoria and ideally sell the majority if not all of my alts and some GBTC I have in a Roth. I have been pretty bad about selling alts in the past as well. No plans to sell any BTC unless price goes crazy where I may consider some.

 

[sangheilios]

Seems like a solid plan.

HODL on tight, be selective of alts, and prepare to execute.

I believe it was Michael Saylor that quoted this, but he basically said that the BTC ETFs was when the asset "went public". It's quite clear that BTC is here to stay and will be relevant for a very long time, so holding it is a very wise choice. I think it is safe to say that huge 10x+ swings in one given cycle with BTC specifically are over, but I also have a strong conviction that it is going to do incredibly well between now and 2032.

With each halving, new BTC entering into the market slowly becomes less and less with time. It's also quite apparent that the majority of BTC is being held by investors that clearly are showing an interest in holding it long term, if I recall correctly 70%+ of the supply has been locked in wallets for over a year. I am of the belief that these individuals will continue to NOT sell their BTC. As we get into the early stages of the 2030s, something like 99% of BTC will have been already mined by this point. It's basically just going to a tiny trickle of BTC entering into the market from there on out.

Overwhelming majority of people, including Millennials and Gen Zs, have very little real concept of what BTC actually is, let alone have any of it at all. I've mentioned this to @jaygreenb but owning 1 BTC is going to be a very big deal in the not too distant future, hell even right now that represents approximately $70,000 as I'm writing this, which is a lot of money to have invested. I think 2023 was really the last year a typical retail investor could have ever became even a half a coiner, let alone a full coiner. I'm thinking when we enter into a new bear market being able to buy .25 BTC would be considered a very aggressive or "risky" investment for retail. Basically, in a very short span of time the masses will be heavily priced out from ever owning any significant amounts of BTC, where the overwhelming majority of the supply will be held by wallets with 1+ BTC.

With this out of the way, there is still an opportunity to make a lot of money with alts right now, though I feel this is very quickly dwindling. I made the bulk of my alt positions last year when they were well off their all time highs of 2021, but I recently have added a bit to them with the intention of flipping them for profit OR into BTC. I'll base this off of their performance and where we end up peaking in the market. I'm factoring in short vs long term capital gains taxes, so what I'm buying right now I may just flip into BTC instead of selling and having to pay taxes on.

We are at the gates of the true bull market and we will not have long to wait before we really see where things are heading. I'm not a fortune teller, but I believe by the fall we will be in a very different territory than where we are currently.

 

[AAAgent]

Heard from a few legit guys I follow that they think a left translated cycle where we peak early sometime in the next 3 to 6 months is very possible. Like you, going to pay attention to overall market euphoria and ideally sell the majority if not all of my alts and some GBTC I have in a Roth. I have been pretty bad about selling alts in the past as well. No plans to sell any BTC unless price goes crazy where I may consider some.

I have a similar gut feeling on this time frame. Many think we're still early around 1/4 or 1/3 the way through the cycle but technically, we bottomed in BTC in November of 2022. End of this year would be completion of a two year uptrend.

 

[sangheilios]

Heard from a few legit guys I follow that they think a left translated cycle where we peak early sometime in the next 3 to 6 months is very possible. Like you, going to pay attention to overall market euphoria and ideally sell the majority if not all of my alts and some GBTC I have in a Roth. I have been pretty bad about selling alts in the past as well. No plans to sell any BTC unless price goes crazy where I may consider some.

Yeah, this has also been on my mind. I have a strong feeling that a lot of people are going to get super wrecked thinking "this time is different" or some **** like that. I remember distinctly in 2021 where there was this speculation that we were in a lengthened cycle, where in reality it was actually significantly shorter and peaked the spring of that year.

I'm looking at what the market is like now compared to what we saw pre halving in 2020 and things are very different. We were running hot early 2020 until the COVID sell off scare that took place in all the markets, if this hadn't happened we wouldn't have saw a massive capitulation like that. However, we didn't even break the previous ATH of 2017 until late November of 2020 or something like that, though once we broke that the market euphoria peaked about 6 months later. IF we follow this exact timeline, that means we peak maybe around labor day or so. However, I don't think this is how we should be looking at it.

When you start seeing meme coins and tiny market caps projects pumping with massive gains is when I'd consider exiting. Also when people on youtube start talking about these crazy price predictions is typically a good idea the market is getting too heated. Hell, it's already starting to feel that way right now and alts haven't even taken off yet. This is not the peak of the bull market, but I also don't think we will have to wait all that long either.

My personal plan, perma hold BTC and maybe convert some of my alt position into it when the market gets too heated. Hoping I can sell for massive profits though, stick them in a CD or something and then reenter when the market sells off. My intention from there would be to buy up large amounts of discounted BTC and also make some swing trade positions in top alts, where I swing some of that into BTC and for just pure profit. Either way, I'm in a very comfortable position right now.

 

[sangheilios]

I have a similar gut feeling on this time frame. Many think we're still early around 1/4 or 1/3 the way through the cycle but technically, we bottomed in BTC in November of 2022. End of this year would be completion of a two year uptrend.

Honestly, that bottom of late 2022 was due to the FTX craziness and it didn't even stay down there for very long, like not even 3 months. We were basically in a very slow and steady uptrend from the beginning of 2023 until late October of 2023, which was when things began to really heat up. The ETF stuff accelerated this trend though for sure, combine this with the halving and further demand and it's going to get intense very quick.

I will say that I'm not expecting to see BTC have a massive retrace even when we do cool off. It could be something where we peak at 150k and maybe sell off to like 60-70k, maybe 50k as a very temporary capitulation window or something like that. A move like this isn't all that unusual with even major stocks, so it's definitely a very likely scenario. I'm just not really sure how the ETF stuff may change this though, which I am also considering.

However, the true carnage is going to happen with the alts. A lot of stuff from here can easily do close to a 10x or more from where they are currently at, but then tank by 80%+ lol. The crazy thing is that retail is still fairly absent from the space right now, so I can't even really imagine what things are going to be like when that changes.

My personal opinion, I think the ETF basically had us front run the market, putting us ahead of schedule. I think that if the ETF demand wasn't here we'd be substantially lower, like maybe 40k or so, and not be at the highs of 2021 until the fall of this year. However, we are well ahead of schedule, think November of 2020, and at the gates of the bull market mania. I think within 6 months we will know the answer to this.

The biggest mistake I had in 2020 was not really sitting there with a plan of what I was going to do when the market actually did run crazy hot. I saw my portfolio take off to crazy amounts and I really had a difficult time knowing what to do, as my experience from 2018 and on was almost nothing but seeing sell side pressure. I became a very solid investor, knowing when to buy and when to hold off, but I hadn't mastered the concepts of selling, what to hold, etc.