Current crypto trends

DarwinTaurus

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I was just talking to my boss earlier this morning. He said that years ago he had 3 Bitcoin, which he bought for $25 each. He used them to buy some Vape stuff not long after. Now, they are worth around $110k each!.

Reminds me of the story of the guy that spent 10,000 Bitcoin to buy 2 pizzas. That would be worth over a BILLION now. I'm surprise the guy hasn't ended himself...
 

jaygreenb

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I was going to add to what I mentioned on my previous post.

During the last bear/accumulation market of 2019-2020 and early 2021 I actually loaded up on Bcash and Litecoin, in addition to BTC and ETH. My average on LTC was around $40 and on Bcash around $200, I exited in 2021 while keeping BTC and ETH. I did quite well with those projects but minus the investments from the latter part of 2020 and early 2021 I would have done just as well or even better had I just stuck with BTC and ETH.

Both BTC and ETH have very large market caps now and the days of massive swings in one cycle period of now over. Alts are still a phenomenal opportunity to swing for easy profits, it's just buying in at the right time and not buying complete junk. Find alts that are still relevant in the space that are significantly off from their highs of the bear market and you can easily swing them for profit. With that said, most alts don't even revisit their previous all time highs, let alone make new ones.

I've discussed this idea with @jaygreenb , but I am of the belief that the ONLY thing that you should hold long term/permanently is BTC. It's quite obvious that BTC is becoming a more mainstream part of tradfi now, it will eventually get to the point where 401ks and other managed investment accounts will allocate a percentage of funds into this asset. I also wouldn't be surprised to start seeing traditional banks getting involved in the not-too-distant future, though I'm not sure exactly what this would look like. I am of the belief that we are still fairly early with this asset class and with each halving cycle we will see it becoming increasingly more mainstream and interconnected with tradfi.

I personally believe that this ETF stuff with BTC is going to be something similar to that of what we saw with gold. Basically, the average customer can't just go and buy gold but instead they buy the ETF for it. The idea is that instead of buying BTC on an exchange, coinbase for instance, and putting it into self custody, they have to buy the BTC ETF instead through a company like Fidelity, Blackrock or any other institutional tradfi player.

There are roughly 1 million addresses that hold 1 BTC or more, it's hard to exactly quantify how many people actually own 1+ BTC but let us just take that at face value. The overwhelming majority of people in the developed world with access to the internet have less than .01 BTC or literally NONE at all. There are roughly 19 million BTC that have ever been mined, with around 2 million that will be mined over the next 100+ years. Out of this number, there is an estimated 4-6 million that have been permanently lost, so let's say there are 14 million left. However, there will be BTC that continues to get lost over time. Factor in sheer institutional demand + the coming halving and future halvings and the fact that over 70% of BTC is being held long term by investors who believe in this asset and you have a scarce asset that has become incredibly rare.

I am of the belief that if you were NOT able to buy 1 BTC, or the equivalent of it, from anywhere up until this past fall, when BTC was at 30k, you are not going to get rich in this cycle without getting lucky. Some of the posters on here talking about making massive gains on some small or even micro cap are going to be needing to buy very early with a good amount of money AND having that particular coin do well. Way too many people were chasing Solana for instance, despite the fact that the network went down not that long ago. I can't imagine throwing in 5 figures into something not even in the top 20, let alone top 50 or 100 lol, with the expectation that it would pop off lol. IF I was going to do this though, I would definitely scatter shot and throw it into a variety of coins.

With all of this out of the way, I think a lot of people are potentially missing one of the easiest boats for long and sustained profit/wealth building by overcomplicating things and chasing alts, and I know @jaygreenb agrees with me.
You sounds like me lol Agreed. The main issue I see with new retail coming into this space is they have the mentality of how can I become filthy rich in a short period of time with a few grand. This is their entire life financial plan and such a recipe for disaster. It pushes you way out on the risk curve chasing a meaningful return. Most small cap alt coins are literally just a transfer of money. All things being equal, for you to 100x you need 100 people to get completely wrecked. It is an international game of chicken on who can pull out first and you are playing against people who are smarter, have more experience and a much larger bank roll. You also have to factor in most are just outright scams that are going to get rug pulled. If you are asking yourself if you can play this game, most likely you can't. If you are one of the people who can you most likely have already pulled it off and don't have to ponder this question.

For newer guys, I like to degen too but keep it a small percentage and do not pass up on the best risk adjusted bets of our lifetime. Understand that you need to give yourself time and expect a good 5yrs plus before you start making and keeping the nice multiples on investment. In my opinion, the right way to play this is focus on getting your income up as high as possible through your career, side hustles, business etc and get as big a DCA you can into bitcoin, some eth and a smaller percentage of alts. If your alts hit a nice run sell off half into BTC. Do not disappear in the bear and stay consistent, this is where the real money is made. You will be surprised just how far you can get with consistency and time. For reference I am around percentage wise 75 % btc,15 % eth,10 % a basket of alts and have done very well. It took years though and I really doubled down in the bear markets.
 

sangheilios

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You sounds like me lol Agreed. The main issue I see with new retail coming into this space is they have the mentality of how can I become filthy rich in a short period of time with a few grand. This is their entire life financial plan and such a recipe for disaster. It pushes you way out on the risk curve chasing a meaningful return. Most small cap alt coins are literally just a transfer of money. All things being equal, for you to 100x you need 100 people to get completely wrecked. It is an international game of chicken on who can pull out first and you are playing against people who are smarter, have more experience and a much larger bank roll. You also have to factor in most are just outright scams that are going to get rug pulled. If you are asking yourself if you can play this game, most likely you can't. If you are one of the people who can you most likely have already pulled it off and don't have to ponder this question.

For newer guys, I like to degen too but keep it a small percentage and do not pass up on the best risk adjusted bets of our lifetime. Understand that you need to give yourself time and expect a good 5yrs plus before you start making and keeping the nice multiples on investment. In my opinion, the right way to play this is focus on getting your income up as high as possible through your career, side hustles, business etc and get as big a DCA you can into bitcoin, some eth and a smaller percentage of alts. If your alts hit a nice run sell off half into BTC. Do not disappear in the bear and stay consistent, this is where the real money is made. You will be surprised just how far you can get with consistency and time. For reference I am around percentage wise 75 % btc,15 % eth,10 % a basket of alts and have done very well. It took years though and I really doubled down in the bear markets.
I personally know someone that has been "into" crypto for as long as I have, early 2018, who has had a completely different strategy with very different results. He was 100% invested into alts, at one point he was heavy in Bcash but sometime in 2021 he switched all in to Shiba. I had literally never heard of it, but he was talking about how he bought so much and how it was going to hit 10 cents or whatever lol. I looked it up and figured out the tokenomics of it and discovered how ridiculous it would be for it to hit 1 cent, let alone 10 cents lol. I remember discussing this with him and he didn't seem to understand, or rather just didn't want to lol.

Somewhat recently, I had a conversation with this same guy and I told him that owning 1 BTC was a very big deal, to which he asked "It is?". Sometime later in the conversation he had disclosed to me that he was all in on XRP now and he started talking about how amazing it was. Anyway, where I'm at compared to him is a night and day difference.

I have mixed feelings on ETH compared to BTC. I personally believe that ETH outperforming BTC is slowly diminishing and will eventually get to a point where it AT BEST maintains around 5-6% per BTC, though with the added possibility of it slowly bleeding compared to it. I would way rather go all in on BTC from any ETH positions and also have some alts with substantially smaller market caps where you can very easily see sizeable returns on your investment in one given cycle.
 

jaygreenb

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I personally know someone that has been "into" crypto for as long as I have, early 2018, who has had a completely different strategy with very different results. He was 100% invested into alts, at one point he was heavy in Bcash but sometime in 2021 he switched all in to Shiba. I had literally never heard of it, but he was talking about how he bought so much and how it was going to hit 10 cents or whatever lol. I looked it up and figured out the tokenomics of it and discovered how ridiculous it would be for it to hit 1 cent, let alone 10 cents lol. I remember discussing this with him and he didn't seem to understand, or rather just didn't want to lol.

Somewhat recently, I had a conversation with this same guy and I told him that owning 1 BTC was a very big deal, to which he asked "It is?". Sometime later in the conversation he had disclosed to me that he was all in on XRP now and he started talking about how amazing it was. Anyway, where I'm at compared to him is a night and day difference.

I have mixed feelings on ETH compared to BTC. I personally believe that ETH outperforming BTC is slowly diminishing and will eventually get to a point where it AT BEST maintains around 5-6% per BTC, though with the added possibility of it slowly bleeding compared to it. I would way rather go all in on BTC from any ETH positions and also have some alts with substantially smaller market caps where you can very easily see sizeable returns on your investment in one given cycle.
Crypto made really realize to a great extent that most people have no problem being lied to as long as it means they are going to benefit/get rich with minimal effort. Amazing really lol If you had no morals it would be so easy to be some scammer influencer. Just constantly tell people what I listed above and you will build a decent following.

Nothing wrong at all being all BTC, just seems to make it a little more palatable when I add in you can do a few other coins as well. Not saying you specifically. The majority of my alts were purchased prior to last cycle. Eth carries significantly more risk and is a completely different play than BTC in my opinion. I'll still ride my current position though and have no problem selling on a nice pump.
 

sangheilios

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Crypto made really realize to a great extent that most people have no problem being lied to as long as it means they are going to benefit/get rich with minimal effort. Amazing really lol If you had no morals it would be so easy to be some scammer influencer. Just constantly tell people what I listed above and you will build a decent following.

Nothing wrong at all being all BTC, just seems to make it a little more palatable when I add in you can do a few other coins as well. Not saying you specifically. The majority of my alts were purchased prior to last cycle. Eth carries significantly more risk and is a completely different play than BTC in my opinion. I'll still ride my current position though and have no problem selling on a nice pump.
I have alt positions right now, but with the intention to sell them when the market really gets heated up. I believe there will still be a bear market at some point, as things will get far too euphoric and overpriced due to human psychology. I would like to sell these alts for profit and later rebuy in with these funds, mostly BTC but also some allocated to alt positions for profit.....rinse and repeat essentially. This cycle though, I'm also going to make sure to use some of this money for personal things as well.

With this out of the way, I'm expecting substantially less downside volatility of BTC in the next bear market compared to what we've seen in the past. Even 2022 really wasn't that bad, 69k to 16k for instance. Alts will still probably tank 80%+ I believe and most will fade into oblivion, as we've seen historically.
 

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sangheilios

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I was just talking to my boss earlier this morning. He said that years ago he had 3 Bitcoin, which he bought for $25 each. He used them to buy some Vape stuff not long after. Now, they are worth around $110k each!.

Reminds me of the story of the guy that spent 10,000 Bitcoin to buy 2 pizzas. That would be worth over a BILLION now. I'm surprise the guy hasn't ended himself...
@jaygreenb probably agrees with me on this, but the very early days of BTC like you are talking about were a totally different reality than what we've seen over the last few years. In my opinion, I think up until the halving of 2016 BTC was more or less a pet science project for nerds that really wasn't all that relevant and could have easily faded into oblivion. I personally believe the bull market of 2017 was when the asset class became known to the public and was in the early stages of getting a lot of attention from regulatory powers, tradfi institutions, etc. I believe the bear market low of late 2018 was the final opportunity this could have disappeared and become a thing of the past, instead it continued to remain relevant and BTC itself hit a 1 trillion dollar market cap in 2021, essentially rivaling big stocks like Apple.
 

AAAgent

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I'm also in LPT which provides decentralized livestreaming infrastructure. I see a rise in many applications utilizing their services because its cheaper than AWS and provides competitive quality. It's up about 200% in the last 2 days.
Might be breaking out again for another big run. They should be getting a big pump in their traffic and utilization soon.
 

jaygreenb

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Might be breaking out again for another big run. They should be getting a big pump in their traffic and utilization soon.
The amount of money flowing in right now is pretty wild and realistically this is just the start as on ramps are becoming available for different giant pools of capital
 

AAAgent

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The amount of money flowing in right now is pretty wild and realistically this is just the start as on ramps are becoming available for different giant pools of capital
Yeah, pretty crazy. Grayscale just launched a new trust for it. almost half a billion in trading volume already in anticipation looks like.
 

FlexpertHamilton

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I was just talking to my boss earlier this morning. He said that years ago he had 3 Bitcoin, which he bought for $25 each. He used them to buy some Vape stuff not long after. Now, they are worth around $110k each!.

Reminds me of the story of the guy that spent 10,000 Bitcoin to buy 2 pizzas. That would be worth over a BILLION now. I'm surprise the guy hasn't ended himself...
I hate this mindset.

Any minor action you take compounds over a lifetime. Your decision to wear a blue shirt in kindergarten one day may have prevented you from becoming a millionaire. The causal chain of cause and effect is not something anyone begin to fathom; everything is wrapped up in a chain of causes that you are completely oblivious to. No one could have known Bitcoin would have exploded. And consider if 100 more people had "held" their BTC back in the initial days, it may have prevented it from skyrocketing in the first place.
 

BackInTheGame78

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Holy sh!t, I forgot I bought 3000 Trias toekns when they were down around $1.50 a piece, like a year and a half ago... I logged into Kucoin and see they are worth 50K today....since they no longer do business with US Residents I need to transfer it to my wallet over the next week or so to sell

:oops: :oops: :eek: :eek:
 
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BackInTheGame78

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I was just talking to my boss earlier this morning. He said that years ago he had 3 Bitcoin, which he bought for $25 each. He used them to buy some Vape stuff not long after. Now, they are worth around $110k each!.

Reminds me of the story of the guy that spent 10,000 Bitcoin to buy 2 pizzas. That would be worth over a BILLION now. I'm surprise the guy hasn't ended himself...
BTC has never reached $110K...at least not yet. Likely will go far above that in the coming year(s).

It's ATH was just a week or so ago around 70K.

Imagine the dudes who bought like 20K BTC when it was like .01 each for $200 and still have it...they are worth well over a Billion dollars today
 

DarwinTaurus

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BTC has never reached $110K...at least not yet. Likely will go far above that in the coming year(s).

It's ATH was just a week or so ago around 70K.

Imagine the dudes who bought like 20K BTC when it was like .01 each for $200 and still have it...they are worth well over a Billion dollars today
A colleague at work mentioned that, a week or two ago, and it would have been in $AUD, not $USD.
 

jaygreenb

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Holy sh!t, I forgot I bought 3000 Trias toekns when they were down around $1.50 a piece, like a year and a half ago... I logged into Kucoin and see they are worth 50K today....since they no longer do business with US Residents I need to transfer it to my wallet over the next week or so to sell

:oops: :oops: :eek: :eek:
You can get around it by using a VPN, I use Nord
 

DarwinTaurus

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Holy sh!t, I forgot I bought 3000 Trias toekns when they were down around $1.50 a piece, like a year and a half ago... I logged into Kucoin and see they are worth 50K today....since they no longer do business with US Residents I need to transfer it to my wallet over the next week or so to sell

:oops: :oops: :eek: :eek:
Are you a Nigerian Prince? :rofl:
 

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BackInTheGame78

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Are you a Nigerian Prince? :rofl:
Haha...nope, just someone that has made a of money in crypto, lost a lot of money stupidly and then made a smart decision in one of my last moves before I took a break during the downturn.

Honestly it was just a calculated guess. Sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don't.
 

Solomon

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You sounds like me lol Agreed. The main issue I see with new retail coming into this space is they have the mentality of how can I become filthy rich in a short period of time with a few grand. This is their entire life financial plan and such a recipe for disaster. It pushes you way out on the risk curve chasing a meaningful return. Most small cap alt coins are literally just a transfer of money. All things being equal, for you to 100x you need 100 people to get completely wrecked. It is an international game of chicken on who can pull out first and you are playing against people who are smarter, have more experience and a much larger bank roll. You also have to factor in most are just outright scams that are going to get rug pulled. If you are asking yourself if you can play this game, most likely you can't. If you are one of the people who can you most likely have already pulled it off and don't have to ponder this question.

For newer guys, I like to degen too but keep it a small percentage and do not pass up on the best risk adjusted bets of our lifetime. Understand that you need to give yourself time and expect a good 5yrs plus before you start making and keeping the nice multiples on investment. In my opinion, the right way to play this is focus on getting your income up as high as possible through your career, side hustles, business etc and get as big a DCA you can into bitcoin, some eth and a smaller percentage of alts. If your alts hit a nice run sell off half into BTC. Do not disappear in the bear and stay consistent, this is where the real money is made. You will be surprised just how far you can get with consistency and time. For reference I am around percentage wise 75 % btc,15 % eth,10 % a basket of alts and have done very well. It took years though and I really doubled down in the bear markets.
The "Shiba Inu" conspiracy sounds crazy. I will not try to convince people about it any more people thought it was a joke(and many still do) but Shib is now a top 10 coin, can it hit a penny? if their burning protocol(Shibarium) does what it's supposed to do it can hit that and beyond. Once again let me say it again for the person in the back who is slow, if Shibarium does what it's supposed to do it can.

Personally, I'm taking partial profits on the way up, it was the best purchase I ever made in crypto (I got in April of 2021 literally right before it's first major run)
 

AAAgent

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The "Shiba Inu" conspiracy sounds crazy. I will not try to convince people about it any more people thought it was a joke(and many still do) but Shib is now a top 10 coin, can it hit a penny? if their burning protocol(Shibarium) does what it's supposed to do it can hit that and beyond. Once again let me say it again for the person in the back who is slow, if Shibarium does what it's supposed to do it can.

Personally, I'm taking partial profits on the way up, it was the best purchase I ever made in crypto (I got in April of 2021 literally right before it's first major run)
Just because its a joke, doesn't mean it can't go up in value. Herd mentality. Literally what Doge is. I prefer not to mess around with too much capital in meme coins. Haven't been following Shibarium.
 

Solomon

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Just because its a joke, doesn't mean it can't go up in value. Herd mentality. Literally what Doge is. I prefer not to mess around with too much capital in meme coins. Haven't been following Shibarium.
I learned from my mentor who is a whale you get out before the herd, I know people don't talk about TA on here but man even if you know the basics. TA it can do wonders when it comes to taking profits. The normie guy is waiting for a 1000X on his coin to go up lmfao, not understanding resistance areas, RSI etc.

This is something that I have been focusing on, most people who are coming in this space are going to get rekt. I just saw someone posting on Twitter who just got approved for a 100K American Express credit card and he bought WIF (a Solana meme) and is putting it on 50X leverage (insane)

Greed leads to people doing goofy stuff, I've learned it's best to take profits conservatively than buy the dips (or massive corrections) better to leave with something than leave with nothing
 

jaygreenb

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Just because its a joke, doesn't mean it can't go up in value. Herd mentality. Literally what Doge is. I prefer not to mess around with too much capital in meme coins. Haven't been following Shibarium.
In a crypto bull market the dogsht and scams seem to pump the hardest. Like you, don't have it in me anymore to constantly chase and stay up on all of it like I did my first cycle 20I7. The net result of all of that in the end, would of done better just sticking with BTC and ETH. You really do have a very tight window to make that work most of the times. Personally, do not see that as investing but at best trying to day trade/market time but really just gambling.

The "Shiba Inu" conspiracy sounds crazy. I will not try to convince people about it any more people thought it was a joke(and many still do) but Shib is now a top 10 coin, can it hit a penny? if their burning protocol(Shibarium) does what it's supposed to do it can hit that and beyond. Once again let me say it again for the person in the back who is slow, if Shibarium does what it's supposed to do it can.

Personally, I'm taking partial profits on the way up, it was the best purchase I ever made in crypto (I got in April of 2021 literally right before it's first major run)
I am not familiar with the conspiracy but you may very well be right, I just do not know enough about it to have an opinion. If you can make it work and make money, that is awesome.
 
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