BCS championship game odds: very simple

[dakota]

A summary of what each team has to do to make it to the championship game and play ( and loose to) ohio state.
USC: if they win out they will pass Michigan and play for the national championship

Florida: needs a USC loss and to win out, including a solid win over arkansas.

Michigan: gets a rematch if USC loses and Florida and Arkansas do not finish impressively.

Arkansas: USC must lose and must win out with solid wins versus LSU and Florida. Impossible to finish ahead of USC if USC wins rest of its games.

Notre Dame ( and all others): No chance:
Overall odds on making it:
USC: 50% chance
Michigan 30% chance
Florida: 10% chance
Arkansas: 10% chance

 

[ValleyDJing]

how do you figure? Is this just what you're saying or did you do some really complicated number crunching or what?

 

[PRMoon]

He's right. If USC wins out they get the spot because their last three opponents are Arkansas, Nebraska, and Notre Dame which is easily the toughest remaining schedule of the one loss teams.

Michigan is the only team in concideration with a decent loss giving OSU a run for their money. They've played three teams in the top 25 who's combined records were 32 and 2. But they didn't win their confrence (obviously) and OSU already showed us that they're pretty much troy smith's whipping post.

Arkansas is undefeated in what many believe was the toughest confrence in College football, the SEC. They have a 10 game winning streak. If they beat LSU and Florida to cap the season, they've got a definate argument. But they got beat by 36 points in a home game...by USC so It's doutful they'll finish ahead even if they win out.

Florida played 10 teams that are bowl eligible and only lost to Auburn. However they haven't dominated anyone in the SEC and their non conference opponents were all ranked 50 and above. They'll need just as much help as Arkansas to top USC.

Notre Dame did bust up USC pretty bad but Michigan beat them just as badly so you really can't put them ahead of Michigan if they win out. Heck Michigan State almost took it to them until they quit in the last quarter. Close calls and a blow out equals no BCS Championship for them

One thing though. It really doesn't matter who goes to the National Chamionship because OSU has more then proven itself to be the class of the NCAA this year. Troy Smith is going to win the Heisman mainly because he's playing behind what is easily the best offensive line in college. It doesn't matter who they play against, they just dominate down in the trenches off the ball. Their D line is almost as good as Michigans (who definatley has the best D line in football). Make no mistake, OSU is going to smoke whichever unfortunate victim meets them in the national championship.

 

[Vincent]

Those stats look about right to me. I think there's a better chance of USC losing to ND then people expect.

And don't write off michigan just yet. A 3 point difference, in the horse shoe. Not exactly a dominant lead. Give them a neutral ground and it will level the playing field a lot. Troy smith played well against michigan, but by no means did he 'whip' them. I do believe he's the best player in the NCAA (this coming from a die hard michigan fan), but michigan's solid defense and a very well rounded offense is a lot for even OSU to handle.

 

[RedPill]

*ahem* I would like to take this opportunity, and I'm sure it's been done in countless other threads over time, to bash Notre Dame right in the face with a helmet, Miami-style. :trouble:

Every year they pull the same Irish jig - get spanked by one or more Big Ten opponents, trounce the bottom feeders of the Big East and ACC, and beat up the service academies, only to finish by losing to USC in a matchup that's over-hyped from their near-Immaculate record. If they didn't happen to get upset by some 4-8 team along the way, there's always "national championship implications" going into that rivalry game against the Trojans.

Now granted, they've had some good years, and always show up for the rivalry game at the end, but how long has it been since Lou Holtz left? This year has been particularly bad in terms of the over-inflation. A top 5 team? Please. How are they even in the championship discussion, outside of who they're playing this week?

Now that being said, I'll be rooting for ND against Southern Cal for two reasons:

1) likely creates the rematch between Michigan and OSU, which would absolutely be the most entertaining title game, and
2) USC has such a solid program now they'll likely be in 8 of the next 10 championships, with a half-dozen Heisman candidates, so a year off would be a nice change of pace.

 

[TooColdUlrick]

spot on. USC wins out, they will get more than enough points to play OSU. they're only 75 thousandths behind right now. so michigan sits back and watches it all fall apart for them.

i'd put it at greater than 50% though. i'm thinking something like 100%. nothing like recruiting at Los Angeles County Jail.

 

[dakota]

and the weekend update:
following the Arkansas loss, unimpressive Florida win, and USC handling of Notre dame...
Tomorrow the new BCS standings will be
1. OSU
2. USC
3. Michigan
4 Florida

so the odds on who gets to lose to Ohio state in Glendale?
USC: still needs to beat UCLA --- 80%
Michigan: needs USC loss - 19%
Florida: needs USC to lose and a big win over Arkansas: 1%

 

[supajsilver2]

I'm looking at
1. USC vs. OSU
2. FLA vs. UM
and here's a shot-
3. WIS vs. ND maybe--wisconson will get shot way up this week

 

[oakraiderz2]

I'm looking at
1. USC vs. OSU
2. FLA vs. UM
and here's a shot-
3. WIS vs. ND maybe--wisconson will get shot way up this week

Yea, you should probably stop doing drugs.

 

[PRMoon]

Check out how this guy feel about the BCS Rankin System I never thought about it from this perspective before. Kind of an interesting take on what the BCS has done to the game of college football.

 

[RedPill]

[on Notre Dame] This year has been particularly bad in terms of the over-inflation. A top 5 team? Please. How are they even in the championship discussion, outside of who they're playing this week?

Now that being said, I'll be rooting for ND against Southern Cal for two reasons:

1) likely creates the rematch between Michigan and OSU, which would absolutely be the most entertaining title game, and
2) USC has such a solid program now they'll likely be in 8 of the next 10 championships, with a half-dozen Heisman candidates, so a year off would be a nice change of pace.

ND is looking that much worse now that USC has lost, thus reinforcing my claim of their over-inflation. Looks like there will likely be The Rematch (unless the Gators can somehow win convincingly, which they haven't done much all season).

 

[PRMoon]

ND is looking that much worse now that USC has lost, thus reinforcing my claim of their over-inflation. Looks like there will likely be The Rematch (unless the Gators can somehow win convincingly, which they haven't done much all season).

Don't be so sure about that. If Florida wins, that means they're SEC Champions and unfortunately a conference chamiponship is not in the works for Michigan obviously. Plus Michigan is idle this week so there's a good chance that Florida will pass them in the polls.

This is assuming they win though. If they go down, it's definately rematch time.

 

[RedPill]

Don't be so sure about that. If Florida wins, that means they're SEC Champions and unfortunately a conference chamiponship is not in the works for Michigan obviously. Plus Michigan is idle this week so there's a good chance that Florida will pass them in the polls.

This is assuming they win though. If they go down, it's definately rematch time.

Regardless of how it turns out, one fan base is gonna be pissed, and the BCS is getting another black eye. I think Michigan will come out ahead in the computers, so it will all come down to the polls, which are 2/3 of the BCS. At the end of the day, it's all about the money, which is why this thread even exists in the first place. So which matchup is more attractive for sponsors, viewership, and sports betting?

 

[PRMoon]

I wager alot of people vote for florida. I don't think the overwhelming majority of america wants to see OSU beat up on michigan again. Don't be fooled by the final score, that game was not as close as it dictated. Michigan needed OSU to turn over the ball 3 times (once on a botched snap) in order to fall short by three points. Ohio Sates ofensive line dominated Michigan for the bulk of the game. Don't believe me? Well you don't have to but OSU had over 100 yards of additional offence put up on the board, non of which were created by turn overs by the defense. The offense is just too much for anybody to handle. Honestly I can't see Florda beating them either, arkansas gave them a serious run for their money in the title game, I highly doubt that OSU will be in the same position. In the end it likely doesn't matter who goes to phenoix, cause they're walking right infront of a speeding loca motive.

 

[ValleyDJing]

Its great to be...a Florida Gator! I said its great to be...a Florida Gator!

Q: Do you like apples?
A: yeah
F.UCK MICHIGAN, F.UCK ARKANSAS, AND F.UCK USC! How do you like them apples?!

UF 38
Ark 28

Score, a lot worse if it wasn't for injuries and a stupid pass interference call by the refs.

Vaunted Darren McFadden against vaunted Florida Defense- 72 yards, 0 td's, and a bum ankle.

Defense wins championships. Never forget that! OUT!

 

[PRMoon]

Defense wins championships. Never forget that! OUT!

Ordinarily I'd agree with you but Michigan is overwhelmingly the best defensive team in college football today and they came up short against OSU who is overwhelmingly the best offensive team in college foobally today. I think the title game will have a ton of offense. This is becaue if any team has hopes of winning the title they'll have to keep up with said offense. You really can't stop them as we've seen. You have to contain them as best as possible and exploit the weakest points of their defense and hope they make more mistakes like they did against Michigan.

 

[dakota]

its a really tough call.... most computer polls rated Michigans schedule as tougher than floridas comming into this week ( see the very week noncon by Florida)... Florida will get a bit closer in the bcs.. but will end up falling short of the needed votes both human and computer... setting up a rematch with osu.

 

[PRMoon]

Looks like the Florida edged out Michigan by .01 exactly in the bcs ratings. I know alot of people who are mad about this but as I've said before dems the brakes with the system. That idle week for michigan was the death blow cause florida ranked 25 in exactly one catigory apparently enough to put them over the top.

Anybody got predictions for the final games?

 

[ValleyDJing]

Looks like the Florida edged out Michigan by .01 exactly in the bcs ratings. I know alot of people who are mad about this but as I've said before dems the brakes with the system. That idle week for michigan was the death blow cause florida ranked 25 in exactly one catigory apparently enough to put them over the top.

Anybody got predictions for the final games?

Florida didn't get screwed for a change! There is a God! Wow!
I think they made the ratings so damn close so Michigan wouldn't feel like they got totally blown away by Florida. they wanted to be able to say it was close. Bottom line, Michigan shouldn't have ever been number 2 anyways. They lost two weeks ago. Why didn't they drop? thats bull****. Everybody else in college football loses and drops. Thats how it goes. Michigan gets special treatment? horses.hit! They didn't get screwed...they got a break.

My prediction? UF 28 OSU 24

Whats Ohio gonna do to Florida? Pass? not likely. Run? hahahahahah! thats funny!

 

[Soupar]

Florida didn't get screwed for a change! There is a God! Wow!
I think they made the ratings so damn close so Michigan wouldn't feel like they got totally blown away by Florida. they wanted to be able to say it was close. Bottom line, Michigan shouldn't have ever been number 2 anyways. They lost two weeks ago. Why didn't they drop? thats bull****. Everybody else in college football loses and drops. Thats how it goes. Michigan gets special treatment? horses.hit! They didn't get screwed...they got a break.

My prediction? UF 28 OSU 24

Whats Ohio gonna do to Florida? Pass? not likely. Run? hahahahahah! thats funny!

First of all, Michigan did drop, USC was #2 until they lost to UCLA this weekend. Secondly, OSU will kick the **** out of Florida. Theres not a single team in the NCAA that can compare with the talent on the OSU and Michigan squads. Yes, Ohio will pass and run all over florida. Look what they did to Michigan who is one of the best defenses in the league. The only team comprable to OSU is Michigan, and those two should be fighting for the National Championship. Sure, Michigan had a chance before, but Florida has none.