backbreaker and horse racing

cave dweller

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backbreaker,

Are you telling me that you play the horses for a living?

I find this interesting.....

Can you recommend any books for me to read?

cave dweller
 

cave dweller

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web sites?

backbreaker,

Also,

Are there any web sites that you recommend?

cave dweller
 

backbreaker

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I actually responded to this earlier, don't know what happened to the message


Yeah, that's what I do ever since I sold my company, or at least my share... It's part of the reason I sold my company.


Every Handicapper I know has differnent "theories". The best way to start off is to just plain watch horse races and learn as much as possible about the horses... http://www.racereplays.com is the best and cheapest handcapping guide you will find.. Very rarely do I make a bet without previously watching the horse run on this website...

Try to stay away from forums... The premise of a "forum" for hanciappers is stupid upon himself, because anyone who has figured out what they are doing aren't quick to share their information.. usually just a bunch of people with bad luck getting together telling you what you can't do.

I wouldn't recommend reading books either, but there is ONE that is great, and I forgot the name, but it's by James Quinn and it's really a bunch of books rolled into one.

Try to stay away from anything Written By Andrew Beyer... 95% of all handcappers swaer by his Beyer Speed Figure ,and it's not so much that it doesn' twork, because it does to a great extent, but alot of the wins I get I never would have thought about if I were going strickly off of thoose figures...

The most common thing I hear at the track, when I go, when I win and I hear someone in teh background saying "there was no one that could have won this race, look at this horses figures!"... And they are right.. that's why I don't use them..

Generally, something I figured out by trail and error, Beyer Speed Figures are drastically off when a horse is bumping up in class.. IN other words, say a horse wins in a $25,000 NW1L Claim Race (claimers, that haven't won anything besides a maiden race ever).. and he Rumps and scores a say... 83 Beyer speed figure...

Now, the Next highest speed figure in the next race, which would be say, a $30,000 NW2L race might be a 79...

However, thoose 79 Speed Figures came in the same class, where as he had an "Easy trip" to get the 83 speed figure... Unless a horse like that has a sinificant pace advantage, he will usualy get his ass handed to him.

Works the same way in reverse.

Three simple premises have given me alot of sucess.

1) Each Race is it's own

2) NO matter how good of a hanciapper I am, the trainer knows what his horse is capable of better than I do

3) Wins and losses aren't important as a good bet or a bad bet... I have made bad bets that I won , and made good bets that I lost and were perfectly happy with because I know it was a very good bet.
 

backbreaker

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About 8 months ago The biggest race I ever scored as far as price (i actually won the most money yesterday then I ever have) which was $115.00 for a 2 dollar bet, was a horse bumping up in class, a pretty nice bump up in class... But the horse was coming off of a claim, and went from a bad trainer, to Todd Pletcher, one of the best in the business, and the trainer of Flower Alley... Not only did the horse go up in class, he went from a piss poor jockey to if I am not mistaken Edgar Prado...

Now, my rationale was... Edgar Prado can ride any damn horse in this field.. there HAS to be a reason why he rode this one... Also, Pletcher is one of the best.. he bumped this horse up for a reason...

So I blindly put $200 to win on this horse... And he won... wasn't even close. I mean, the horse gave me NO indication that he was improving.. no good workouts, no previous past performances, nothing... but I don't know what goes on day to day in the stables, I don't know what's going though the trainers mind... At first I thought he was trying to give him a warm up for a race down the road, but if that was the case you could have gotten any jockey there to ride him, ,Edgar Prado isn't going to get on a horse unless he thinks it has a legit chance of winning..

Ever Since then, I stopped being so technical with my analysis and started paying attention more to trainers tendencies.. now, some trainers are pretty stupid, which is something else I learned, but you learn who and who not to run with.... for instance, if Bill Mott and Jerry Bailey team up for a race (trainer and jockey)... I'll pretty much pass on the race unless he goes off at high odds... they have a redicous win percentage, and all of thier horses seem to be stakes class horses... Considering they win I think around 50% of their races together, If they think they can win a race, then damnit I do to.
 

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FRëSHURE

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Are you getting on the Melbourne Cup?

Maybe you're strictly USA?

I suppose its hard to track form of Australian horses from over your way?

I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Theres a horse named Makaybe Diva (spelling?) which will write her?self into the Australian history books if she wins tomorrow (favourite) as one of the best 5 Australian horses ever.

So she?s got the backing of all Australia I think, but that doesn't mean she'll win.

I don't follow the horses, and I have an exam during the time the Cup will be won, but its a big day, its a public holiday in Melbourne.
 

backbreaker

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I think i might give it a try this year...

Australian Horse Racing is a different Anamial than American Horse Racing... Horses don't win at the odds over there that they do over here on a constant basis (the racing public is much, much smarter), and I know that class is the most important differantion than over here.

But that's how I feel as well... I am not a "speed figure" guy.. horse racing is horse racing... I have made alot of bets in Japan and in GB with some success, and I LOVE turf racing alot more than Dirt anyway.

Just as a thought... even if she is the best horse in the race, there is so much crap that can go wrong, that she can loose.

I very, very rarely play the Best Horse in the field... I usually look for advantages that are misses that are posssed by a higher priced horse.

2004 Belmont Stakes perfect example... Smarty Jones was heads and sholders better than the compitiion... but Steward Elliot proved why he wasn't a G1 Stakes Calibur Jockey, by sending Smarty Jones to the lead an 8th of a mile too soon, costing him the race. AFter the race he admited what everyone else knew, ,he ****ed up and costed Smarty the Triple Crown.
 

cave dweller

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bills???????

backbreaker,

You state that you play the horses for a living.....

How in the hell do you pay your bills on a $2 dollar bet?

cave dweller
 

backbreaker

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2 dollars?

:crackup:

An average Bet I make is closer to $1,000, depending on the Mutual Pool Size.

Last Weekend I made a couple of $5,000 bets.

The most I ever bet in a race was $8,000.

The only thing I would consider betting 2 dollars on is an trifecta or a superfecta, and only then if I have a strong feeling about 3 horses in the race.
 

backbreaker

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BTW, the first thing I did when I sold my company, was put away enough to pay all of my bills for the next 3 years, so my bills are paid even if I didn't make a dime.
 

Well I'm here to tell you there is such a magic wand. Something that will make you almost completely irresistible to any woman you "point it" at. Something guaranteed to fill your life with love, romance, and excitement.

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Oxide

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One question, backbreaker, and don't take this wrong becuase i do enjoy your insights...however:

You have sold your company. You have money to spend, and the ability to do pretty much anything..

so tell me, WHY THE FVCK ARE YOU STILL HERE POSTING?

I mean, I just have nothing better to do at 2:30 am, but between this board and two high class hookers I would take the buffet.
 

Centaurion

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lmfao

I was thinking the same.
 

backbreaker

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Originally posted by Oxide
One question, backbreaker, and don't take this wrong becuase i do enjoy your insights...however:

You have sold your company. You have money to spend, and the ability to do pretty much anything..

so tell me, WHY THE FVCK ARE YOU STILL HERE POSTING?

I mean, I just have nothing better to do at 2:30 am, but between this board and two high class hookers I would take the buffet.
first, notice I really haven't been here all week... I just don't sit here and post all day.

However, to answer your question, a girl I am sleeping with just feel asleep,a nd I am not sleepy, so I decided to come and check my PM's here, ,and check on a couple of auctions I bidded on on ebay ,and to check my email... I also promised my mom that I would fix her laptop by tomorrow... I am reinstalling Windows on it as we speak, and i am killing time until it gets done... I could just wake up early tomorrow and do it, but why when I am not sleepy now... regardless, she works off of her computer and she needs it, and I dont' want to here her mouth if it's not done.

Also, I have a different sleeping schedule then most people... I usually go to bed around 4ish and get up around 8:30 on days I am working... tomorrow I am not so I will get up at 11:00 to catch the Arkansas V. South Carolina game

But overall, if it werent' for this board, there is no doubt that I wouldn't be who I was today... No, no one told me what to do exactly here, but it gave me the mindset that I needed to be successful.. I feel that it's my duty to pass that on if at all possible... Plus some of the stuff I read is very interesting.
 

Oxide

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However, to answer your question, a girl I am sleeping with just feel asleep,a nd I am not sleepy, so I decided to come and check my PM's here, ,and check on a couple of auctions I bidded on on ebay ,and to check my email... I also promised my mom that I would fix her laptop by tomorrow... I am reinstalling Windows on it as we speak, and i am killing time until it gets done... I could just wake up early tomorrow and do it, but why when I am not sleepy now... regardless, she works off of her computer and she needs it, and I dont' want to here her mouth if it's not done.
Irrelevant, don't write essays explaining your actions.

But overall, if it werent' for this board, there is no doubt that I wouldn't be who I was today... No, no one told me what to do exactly here, but it gave me the mindset that I needed to be successful.. I feel that it's my duty to pass that on if at all possible... Plus some of the stuff I read is very interesting.
Already improving.


"Because I can" would also have been acceptable.



Honestly man, i was just wondering what happens when one gets to the point where worrying about money isnt an issue. How one's lifestyle would change and attitude as well.
 

backbreaker

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oh... honestly, not much... just don't worry about money as much... that and your family acts like they owe you the world, and in my case, when they disowned you for "not following the norm" 3-4 years ago.

Well, this girl in my bed just woke up, gotta go ;)
 

Men frequently err by talking too much. They often monopolize conversations, droning on and on about topics that bore women to tears. They think they're impressing the women when, in reality, they're depressing the women.

Quote taken from The SoSuave Guide to Women and Dating, which you can read for FREE.

cave dweller

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net........

backbreaker,

Alright, you play the horses for a living.....

I have some 'spare cash'.

Where and how do I get started following the races?

BTW, what do you net a year?

cave dweller
 

spider_007

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thing about it you got to do it with pure logic and conciance. If your emotions get involved; "your fvcked"
 

backbreaker

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Originally posted by spider_007
thing about it you got to do it with pure logic and conciance. If your emotions get involved; "your fvcked"

that's the truest thing I have heard in regards to horse racing...

You don't know how many times STILL I will loose a huge payday, simply becasue it's something small about the horse I don't like... like the the jockey.. For intance, I don't know why, but I hate Chantel Southerland... I've seen her in person... she's actually about at least a HB 7-8, but as far as horse racing on a big level, she isn't near the top, but she is good enough to win from time to time.

There was a race a couple of weeks ago, that I KNEW the horse she was on was so good that he could win IN SPITE of her riding it if she made a mistake, but yet, I couldn't bring myself to put th money down on the horse... Horse won and paid $30 something dollars


Really horse racing all comes down to using "Logic"... Why in the world would a horse that finished just a half a lenth out in allowance class drop down to a low level Claiing class, where you can claim the horse after the race? What happens when you get a bunch of hroses that have to have the lead in the race? What happens if there is no PACE in the race? (Unless the horse is named Ghostzapper, if he comes from the back of the pack, he has no chance of winning the race)


Let's see... the Best investment you can make is signing up for www.racereplays.com .. it's just $25.00 a month to watch unlimited races of past preformances... I could handicap all of my races off of that (and have before) and it's damn cheap... nothing explains more than actually seeing the horses run shows alot you don't see in the DRF.

I would recommend staying away from the DRF.. too many people use it, the same longshot you see, is the same longshot everyone else will see, meaning he wont' be a longshot anymore. You can find out jockey and trainer stats for free at equibase.com and you can look at workout times (extremely important, learn how to read them, will make and save you alot of money ) at Drf.com for free.


This is my first year doing it full time.. I started in April and so far I have made a little over $500,000... but keep in mind, My starting bankroll was close to $100,000 (I took a part of the money I got from starting my business, and put the rest in the bank and havne' ttouched it)... If I would have started with say... $500, ,actually I would have still made more than enough to pay my bills... I bet so much that I usually can't play exactas, because my bets throw off the Mutal pools... If there were more people betting exactas, I could have easilly made over $1 Million by now... If you gave me $100 over a weekend, I can turn it into $1,000 by betting exactas.


Also, I only bet 3 days a week (Thrusday, Friday and Sunday.. when Santa Anita and Saratoga is racing on Mondays, I bet mondays as well) and only at tracks with big mutal pools (Aqueduct, Belmont, Del Mar, Santa Anita, Oak Tree (same thing), Hollywood Park, at times Arlington... I always bet Hawthorne, that's my favorate track)


YOu have to really, really like horse racing... because you are going to loose, and alot when you start out.. The only reason I even though about keeping at it was becuse I genuinlly love the sport.


The absolute best way to start out... you are pretty much gurarateed to make money unless you are a total dumbass, is to sign up with racereplays.com, pick a track, perferrably one that stays open most of the year (Calder Race Course) and go back say, a month or so, and start watching all of the races and start making notes on each horse in each race.

So when a new race comes up, you can just search for the horse in your Excel file, and compare his notes with all of the other notes you have on the other horses.. by this you should know horses tendencies, horses pace, is he dropping/raising in class, etc.
 

backbreaker

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As for me, I combine alot of elements into picking a race but I am more of a Pace Handicapper mor ethan anything... I am a firm believer that a horse that hasn't done **** for a while, assumign he has it in him somewhere (i.e has won before) can win given the correct pace and he is good shape. Horses that are left alone on the lead if they are front runners usually find unseen stanima and can hold off to win. Horses who come in 7-8th their entire career, given a hot pace, can rump to win by 5 or 6 lenths if in correct shape... IN other words, the best horse hardely ever wins a race unless he is just THAT much better than his opposition...... Few horses are... Afleet Alex was That MUCH BETTER than his compition, Lost in the Fog was THAT much better than his compition (until last race)... Bellamy Road is a horse that is a prime example of what pace can do to you..

He was touted as this super horse, when in reality, ,the Wood Memorial, which he won by 16 lenths was the biggest sham I have ever seen to date... absolutly no early speed besides him, a nd to top it off, the horses wren't only trailers, they were BAD trailers... not one horse in that race besides him did **** in the Kentucky Derby.....

A horse like Lion Heart, who was in the Kentucky Derby last year, is as talented of a hrose as you will find... but won't ever win on a G1 level much because he is a DEAD set front runner and is built for sprints, but goes Routes... but leave him alone and he will win by 15
 

SELF-MASTERY

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I wonder if football handicapper and other sports handicappers have the success that you are having?
 

Create self-fulfilling prophecies. Always assume the positive. Assume she likes you. Assume she wants to talk to you. Assume she wants to go out with you. When you think positive, positive things happen.

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