Malice:
Obama has already said he will change the drug war in his second term.
PairPlusRoyalFlush:
youre stuck on election year propaganda sadly.
I agree Obama's "coming out" to Rolling Stone magazine with the suggestion of a second term evolution, along with featuring Harold & Kumar at the Democratic convention, was probably intended as a publicity stunt. It should also be noted that when Obama talks about changing the drug war, he's actually talking about budget priorities and strategic balances. In other words, to keep the drug war going. His drug czar, Gil K., says the drug war is over because they don't call it that anymore, but meanwhile, the budget balances between interdiction/incarceration and treatment has remained exactly the same. The shift is rhetorical.
It's true that Obama's administration has been the most hostile towards marijuana, with more raids, threats of asset forteiture, and IRS agents, but it's plausible that it didn't come from Obama himself. The president is involved only on a few issues and other issues are delegated to lower-level staff. His administration is chock full of prohibitionist hard-line ****roaches, especially from law enforcement and the Department of Justice. I have speculation from Ethan Nadelmann, citing insider beltway connections, the pressure for the crackdown came from law enforcement and the US Attorneys (
source - scroll to 1:10:30). When Obama appointed the
clueless Michelle Leonhart as DEA adminstrator, it's plausible there were no senior White House advisors on the issue. In other words, Obama was sleep walking on autopilot.
So the federal policy has been very mixed with some of the federal U.S. attorneys being very aggressive in places like Montana and California and trying to shut everybody down, and other states like New Mexico or Maine or other parts of New England really holding back, right. And then you look at a place like Colorado which legalized medical marijuana back in 2000 and then adopted a statewide regulatory approach a few years ago -- through the legislature, signed by the governor. And even there you have hundreds of dispensaries operating above ground, being taxed, regulated, law enforcement, government officials oversee them. There's a medical marijuana enforcement division. So you have in Colorado a very good model for regulating above ground marijuana. And you have in Washington state and some other states a very good model for regulating alcohol above ground.
So I'm very curious to see what the White House and the Justice Department do. You know, two years ago when the marijuana legalization issue was on the ballot in California in 2010, a month before the election, Holder, the Attorney General, said to Californians, "You better watch out because if you do this the Feds are not gonna allow this." This time in 2012, Holder did not say a word, notwithstanding the fact that all the former heads of the DEA and the former heads of the drug czars office all banded together appealing him. But I think what happened was the White House and other people in those states looked at the polling, they saw, for example, Colorado was a swing state. They saw this issue was very popular, especially with young voters and independents who could be swing voters in this election, and they decided the better course of action was not to say anything.
You also have the fact that the governors and attorneys general of these two states, Colorado and Washington, are saying, "Look, we want to implement the will of the people in good faith." I mean, you have the fact that the Colorado legalization initiative got more votes on election day than Obama did. And in Washington state the initiative got more votes than either of the candidates who became -- or got elected governor and attorney general. You have -- and all of them are saying they want to implement these initiatives in good faith. You also have the fact that Obama has in his private discussions with people about drug policy, both with foreign presidents and with wealthy democratic donors and key political people, all of whom I've spoken with -- they all say that Obama and Biden are indicating a willingness to move in a somewhat new direction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h732OBUGTY
Colorado and Washington has changed the game.
Despite all the posturing of federal supremacy, the feds don't actually have clear unambiguous authority. It's noteworthy that the feds have never directly challenged any medical marijuana law, even though there is no medical exemption to the Controlled Substances Act. It's also noteworthy that the Controlled Substances Act does not fully "occupy the field." "Perhaps because it's not just that the feds can't force states to criminalize drug possession... It's also the case that they probably can't directly force the states to criminalize sales either. The Controlled Substances Act in fact leans against federal preemption of state drug policy, as pointed out in a law professors brief on preemption submitted in a California case this year...
Raich established that federal police agencies can use their powers in medical marijuana states to continue to criminalize marijuana federally, justified by the Interstate Commerce Clause. But that is not the same as having the power to forbid states from granting exceptions to the states' own anti-marijuana sales laws, which in legal terms is what the regulatory frameworks do, and plenty of smart lawyers are skeptical that they can do that. This is not a slam dunk either way." (
source).
I'm predicting federal prohibition of marijuana will be down within 4-6 years. Any aggressive action against the will of the people will be incredibly unpopular and unwise. We may have three or four more states by 2016 and it may only take a few states for the whole charade to collapse. When people think a rule is absolute, they rationalize how it's a good thing, but when they think the rules can be changed, they are motivated to fight.