the new girl is more than likely a hot mess if she hasn't fully integrated in to her new city.
the new girls I have dated in the past seem to have this "What IF" mentality and not know what they fvck they want in life in general become major headaches.
In Dallas, I have noticed that the women that don't have local ties to Dallas-Fort Worth from childhood tend to not integrate well and they have the "What If" mentality that you describe.
Dallas is a transplant heavy city and metropolitan area as a whole. While I could write a lot about this, it is better if I keep my response narrow in focus.
The single women who tend to use swipe apps in Dallas are women without strong local ties and who aren't integrating well into city. This can even happen for women who arrived in Dallas in their 20s for work and have gotten to 30+ still single.
When a man approaches strangers in real life in Dallas venues, he can get a mix of women with local ties or women who are transplants. More of my approaches that have resulted in longer conversations have been women who aren't women with strong local ties.
The women who grow up in Dallas-Fort Worth who live in Dallas-Fort Worth as adults seem to be more closed off to stranger approaches. They also seem to get into longer term relationships earlier in life.
I'm not sure how much of what I've described is applicable in other big USA cities. There are some other transplant heavy big USA cities and most of them tend to be in the Sun Belt region.
The local girl might not be interested in dating anyone in her friend/social circle and more open to dating outsiders.
This can happen, but I haven't seen it as much. When I have seen it, it has been from women who have had some failed relationships in the social circle. They are also 30+ women, the subject of this thread.
More of the 30+ women I've seen are transplants who moved here soon after college for work or at some time later in life (late 20s and beyond, more than 5 years after college graduation).
The new girl can quickly find other closed avenues to date from even if she is new such as work social circle, church, and etc.
This can happen too but I haven't seen this much either.
Workplaces can form social circles. I haven't seen too much of it in the workplaces where I have worked in the last 10-15 years.
Co-ed sports leagues, churches, and a few other activities might work for this for women.
The people who seem to benefit most from co-ed sports leagues are the ones who genuinely like that particular sport and aren't doing it directly to find dates. The men (this is almost always men) who try to direct arrange dates from their co-ed sports league participation are the ones who are usually disappointed in the experience.
Social circle building from playing multiple seasons in the same co-ed sports league (organized by the same entity) tend to have better experiences with it.
Co-ed sports leagues are a very slow form of game.
I would not be intimidated by the local girl because more than likely she is more stable and has a social circle that you can be integrated in to
I'm not intimidated by it. I don't see it enough in my interactions.
Spoiler that next time, ugh.