Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[jaygreenb]

You lose money on your first cycle but learn how not to f-it up.

You make some decent money of your second cycle and learn self control and ruthlessness.

You make life/wife changing gains in your third cycle.

That's the consensus.

In my opinion this is the last cycle to make it as a retailer before legacy finance and governments get too oppressive.

Some truth to this, a couple caveats though. You have to stay consistent and accumulate in the bear markets, that is what sets up the huge returns in the upcoming bull market. You also have to adjust your strategy and not just go for the lottery ticket low caps and have a non tradeable stock of btc/eth that you take profits into. You may hit a few, but those bad risk habits are going to wipe you out at some point.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

BTC.D keeps climbing and shows no signs of slowing down on the 1M chart.

Last cycle topped out around 73%, currently we are at 54%, up from a cycle low of 37%.

BTC dominance is another metric you can use to gauge how close you are to the cycle top...the closer that number gets to 75%, the closer you'll be to the cycle top and then it's alt season again...which is crazy since almost all alts have already gone 3-5-10+x from their cycle lows.

In general at this point, BTC will out perform most alts, dollar for dollar. Once it peaks and then starts to decline, alta start out performing BTC.

Can use this to maximize returns as BTC generally will provide a more favorable "bang for the buck" now.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Interesting thoughts is that this could be a conclusion to the 2020 cycle creating a "blow-off" top that never happened...then it would be a quicker explosion and subsequent decline...

Potential valid points to consider. I'm not a believe in this, but at the end of the day it's something you have to keep in the back of your mind as it unfolds.

 

[jaygreenb]

Interesting thoughts is that this could be a conclusion to the 2020 cycle creating a "blow-off" top that never happened...then it would be a quicker explosion and subsequent decline...

Potential valid points to consider. I'm not a believe in this, but at the end of the day it's something you have to keep in the back of your mind as it unfolds.

Bob Loukas has been talking about the possibility of a left translated cycle for a while now, if price doesn't slow down a bit certainly a good possibility. So much money has started to and will continue to flow in, it is really anyones guess what happens to price in the relative short term. Personal strategy is just sit in my positions and let the market dictate future actions. If things go parabolic, I'll start pulling cash out of my alt positions for some quality of life upgrades. If Bitcoin becomes a standard portfolio allocation and we are hitting the bend in the adoption curve, very possible we have a good 5+yrs trending upwards with a lot of volatility both ways

 

[sangheilios]

Bob Loukas has been talking about the possibility of a left translated cycle for a while now, if price doesn't slow down a bit certainly a good possibility. So much money has started to and will continue to flow in, it is really anyones guess what happens to price in the relative short term. Personal strategy is just sit in my positions and let the market dictate future actions. If things go parabolic, I'll start pulling cash out of my alt positions for some quality of life upgrades. If Bitcoin becomes a standard portfolio allocation and we are hitting the bend in the adoption curve, very possible we have a good 5+yrs trending upwards with a lot of volatility both ways

My personal opinion on this, it's a long one.

BTC has rapidly matured and is now past the 1 trillion dollar market cap. With each cycle we are seeing both diminishing returns/gains and diminished downside volatility. Peak of 2021 at 69k we tanked to roughly 16k, previous cycle was 20k to 3kish. We will have to see how this market plays out, but it could peak at say 150k and retrace to 60k during the bear market. Volatility like this would actually not be all that unusual in even the traditional stock market.

However, the huge new variable to consider is the ETF demand. I personally believe that between now and 2030 we will see tradfi getting more and more into BTC. First we have the ETFs, then it could be something where basic 401ks or other retirement funds allocate percentages of portfolios into BTC. Traditional banks may begin to actually buy and hold it or possibly even lend against it. I basically see an asset where it may steadily grow over time with each cycle but become less and less volatile to the downside.

I don't see BTC just going up constantly, it will have corrections and cooling off periods when people get too greedy. However, long-long term it is obvious that this asset has just been steadily increasing since it's inception and I believe it will continue to do so.

 

[jaygreenb]

My personal opinion on this, it's a long one.

BTC has rapidly matured and is now past the 1 trillion dollar market cap. With each cycle we are seeing both diminishing returns/gains and diminished downside volatility. Peak of 2021 at 69k we tanked to roughly 16k, previous cycle was 20k to 3kish. We will have to see how this market plays out, but it could peak at say 150k and retrace to 60k during the bear market. Volatility like this would actually not be all that unusual in even the traditional stock market.

However, the huge new variable to consider is the ETF demand. I personally believe that between now and 2030 we will see tradfi getting more and more into BTC. First we have the ETFs, then it could be something where basic 401ks or other retirement funds allocate percentages of portfolios into BTC. Traditional banks may begin to actually buy and hold it or possibly even lend against it. I basically see an asset where it may steadily grow over time with each cycle but become less and less volatile to the downside.

I don't see BTC just going up constantly, it will have corrections and cooling off periods when people get too greedy. However, long-long term it is obvious that this asset has just been steadily increasing since it's inception and I believe it will continue to do so.

Definitely will be major corrections and bear markets. What I am unsure about is if we get a parabolic movie over the next 3-6months then a prolonged correction or does it follow the standard cycle and play out to end of 2025 or longer. If btc does become a standard allocation, even a 3-5% standard position, that puts it well into 7 figures. Ultimately I have no idea haha Just going to let the market come to me and enjoy the ride. Feel very fortunate to be ahead of the curve on this

 

[oc16]

I have about .01762 shares of BTC and I bought at the average price of $30,000 over the last two years. I am up about $750.00 on it.

Part of me wants to cash in and take my profits but the other part of me feels it's going to skyrocket past 100K by the end of the year.

 

[jaygreenb]

I have about .01762 shares of BTC and I bought at the average price of $30,000 over the last two years. I am up about $750.00 on it.

Part of me wants to cash in and take my profits but the other part of me feels it's going to skyrocket past 100K by the end of the year.

Personal opinion is hold it for the long term, set up an auto DCA even if small and don't touch it for at least 5+yrs

 

[sangheilios]

I have about .01762 shares of BTC and I bought at the average price of $30,000 over the last two years. I am up about $750.00 on it.

Part of me wants to cash in and take my profits but the other part of me feels it's going to skyrocket past 100K by the end of the year.

Bro, no offense but I would never even bother taking profit with such a small investment. You also aren't factoring in having to pay capital gains taxes. If I was in your position and wanted to use crypto as a means to flip for profit, I'd definitely consider going into alts. BTC long term will do incredibly well, @jaygreenb will agree with me that the best way to treat this asset is like that of a savings account that you steadily add to and hold. I've been in crypto since 2018 and have 0 plans of selling any of my actual BTC but will definitely take profits on alts. IF you understand the fundamentals behind BTC and why institutions are interested in it, you will realize that it is a great store of longer term wealth that will protect you from inflation. Sure, there has been a tremendous amount of volatility but with each halving cycle this will slowly diminish. We may eventually get to a point in the not too distant future where a move from the absolute bottom of the bear market to the top of the following bull cycle is maybe a 50% move.

 

[sangheilios]

Some truth to this, a couple caveats though. You have to stay consistent and accumulate in the bear markets, that is what sets up the huge returns in the upcoming bull market. You also have to adjust your strategy and not just go for the lottery ticket low caps and have a non tradeable stock of btc/eth that you take profits into. You may hit a few, but those bad risk habits are going to wipe you out at some point.

Most retail investors literally go all in on lower cap alts with this idea of them making 100x gains. However, they typically buy when the bull run is already underway and are getting into high risk territory that eventually leads to them getting dumped on, forcing them to capitulate at a heavy loss.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Working on building an arbitrage bot...will update on progress. Not sure why I haven't thought of this before.

Found a few that I am going to use as a basis for improvements. One is a live bot, the other runs simulations that I can use to test prior to going live.

Pretty clear these are both fairly amateurish pieces of code, but it saves reinventing the wheel.

Going to convert native python into Cython which is C++ wrapped in Python functions to monumentally improve speed and performance.

Then need to get rid of hard coded token lists/pairings and dynamically get them from UniSwap's public API to ensure always have the most up to date lists available. Will then filter based on what I need/want in terms of pairings, liquidity, networks etc.

Will look to see if there are similar features on other networks I can leverage to broaden the scope of the bot.

Will report back once these are completed and working properly as to the extent of networks I am able to loop into this dynamically.

 

[Solomon]

So the fed just cut 50 BPS
I'm expecting a lot of volatility it being an election year
I think October of 2024 will be a decent month but who knows
I'm not expecting BTC to go past 80K for this year

 

[jaygreenb]

So the fed just cut 50 BPS
I'm expecting a lot of volatility it being an election year
I think October of 2024 will be a decent month but who knows
I'm not expecting BTC to go past 80K for this year

Love how this thread keeps getting brought back lol Need to re read from the beginning again one of these days. Barring some huge financial meltdown or black swan, I think we start moving again relatively soon over new few months

 

[sangheilios]

@jaygreenb and @Solomon

I also agree with the idea of there being the potential for a lot of volatility over the next few months.

The election is a huge factor, especially since the incumbent is not in the cards. There's a lot of uncertainty and fear around this election, especially with all of these assassination attempts, war in Ukraine heating up, border/migrant issues, etc. Without getting too political, there is going to be a lot of tension between now and inauguration day regardless of who wins.

The FED cut rates, yes, but on the balance sheet they are still in quantitative tightening right now. I believe over the next few FED meetings they will continue to cut rates and at some point will adjust the balance sheet to quantitative easing. This doesn't have an immediate effect, I believe it will take several months before we see this really take hold, I'm talking February-March of 2025. What we are seeing right now with the markets doing well is just a bit of hype off of the rate cut news, this isn't the major move that we are discussing here.

One interesting news piece lately related to crypto is that Trump was at a BTC bar in Manhattan and was the first president to publicly make a BTC transaction. It's clear that BTC is now center stage and here to stay, I honestly can't imagine where things are going to be by the next halving of 2028, let alone what the 2030s will bring.

I look back on some of these old posts on this thread from 2018 and just laugh. The crazy thing is that there are tons of people who bought into BTC years ago and ended up capitulating and more or less moved on and forgot about this market all together, it's way more common than you probably realize. I remember about 6 years ago there was a guy I knew that showed me his robinhood and we were having a discussion about it. Anyway, he had bought .1 BTC at a price around $700 summer of 2018 and sold it all late fall of that year when it had tanked below 5k. That same .1 BTC would be worth a little over $6000 right now and would have hit that in 2021 as well. This is the same story for the majority of retail that enter into this space. Even all those people who bought BTC when it was $100 probably sold a very long time ago and potentially at losses.