Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[Bible_Belt]

If you look at US rules for exchange listed stocks, and then read them in reverse, there's a lot of good ideas there for trading in places without rules. It's like the unified rules of mma, those moves are illegal because they work too well.

If I had $4 billion in btc and wanted to make the most of it, I would load up on options (yes, they sell derivatives, which are actually nothing, on bitcoin, which is basically nothing). It would take some time to set up all the fake accounts, but if you dump a huge supply that depresses price and are already positioned with put options, you make exponentially more money. And it's easy to get away with. Someone did it with stock options just before 9/11 and never got caught.

And maybe China just wants all that in their pocket as a bargaining ploy to use for negotiating purposes. But the point of holding a large position of anything in an unregulated market would be to manipulate the fvck out of that market...because you can.

 

[SargeMaximus]

I’m up 41% in Bitfarms

 

[Pierce Manhammer]

TLDR;

I never used it as an investment vehicle. I only used it when a vendor offered a significant discount to pay for it. Some up to 20%, even then from the time you purchase to the time you send a payment the market can fluctuate enough that you always need to overbuy by a small margin.

 

[kavi]

Bitcoin is mostly a speculative asset correlated with institutional investiment, and negatively-correlatd with inflation. People think Bitcoin increases when money loses value, but this is not true, its the opposite. With increasing inflationary expectations going forward, there is lower expectation of bitcoin increasing in value.

 

[Fruitbat]

Bitcoin is mostly a speculative asset correlated with institutional investiment, and negatively-correlatd with inflation. People think Bitcoin increases when money loses value, but this is not true, its the opposite. With increasing inflationary expectations going forward, there is lower expectation of bitcoin increasing in value.

That’s one of my issues, it was touted as a hedge against M4 expansion but it behaves like long duration equities.

I didn’t understand it in the bubble and I still don’t understand it now. Other than digitalising existing assets and methods of exchange, I don’t see it’s use. I do, however, own some crypto purely as there may be another bubble.

 

[Solomon]

I remember a few months ago there were several posters who were talking up bitcoin like there was no tomorrow.

Now that Bitcoin has dropped to 6K and is nearing the point of no return where it costs more to mine the coins than the coins are actually worth(somewhere around 5K), they seem oddly quiet...

When something seems too good to be true it usually is. The technology itself has a lot of promise but it appears bitcoin might be extinct in the near future...

Lol at OP disappearing since BTC has gone up to 60K(2021 twice) as I'm typing it's at 28K
still up 4.5X from the original post
If op would have bought some he would be on a yact with some dimes right now
I will be coming here once a year to update on the same day

 

[jaygreenb]

So China owns most of Bitcoin from what I understand yet they don't allow its use in their country, is this just dead now or will it have a reinsurgance? I don't see how but I mean to throw away a little bit of cash for the opportunity might be worth it at this point

Where did you hear China owns most of bitcoin, link? It would not really matter anyway, since the individual owns the same percentage of the network and it can not be diluted. At one point they had a large percentage of the mining. However they banned it, and only took a few months for that hash power return in other areas and the network to become more robust and decentralized. Every stress test since it inception, short term may have been a price hit but forced to network to respond, adapt and become stronger. If anything it proved the networks resilience.

Bitcoin is mostly a speculative asset correlated with institutional investiment, and negatively-correlatd with inflation. People think Bitcoin increases when money loses value, but this is not true, its the opposite. With increasing inflationary expectations going forward, there is lower expectation of bitcoin increasing in value.

This is incorrect. Institutions hade very little involvement since Bitcoins inception, it has been primarily retail based. This has slowly started to change though over the past few years. Percentage wise it is still very low but you can see institutions starting to position themselves for a much higher level of investment, starting to get some clarity in regulation. Price and the value proportion is much more complex than just to mirror inflation. No offense, but you have no idea what you are talking about.

That’s one of my issues, it was touted as a hedge against M4 expansion but it behaves like long duration equities.
I didn’t understand it in the bubble and I still don’t understand it now. Other than digitalising existing assets and methods of exchange, I don’t see it’s use. I do, however, own some crypto purely as there may be another bubble.

No investments move one for one with a market indicator. Markets and participants have unlimited variables in behaviors. There is no way to control or predict how people position themselves in the short term. Same with gold and other types of assets as well.Bitcoin and "crypto" are two completely different topics and should be treated accordingly.

Lol at OP disappearing since BTC has gone up to 60K(2021 twice) as I'm typing it's at 28K
still up 4.5X from the original post
If op would have bought some he would be on a yact with some dimes right now
I will be coming here once a year to update on the same day

Too many people get caught up in short term price action when the long term trend is very clear. Every metric there is, shows the network is growing at high rate. If you go through the beginning of the thread in 2018, my comments were essentially the same and predicted pretty accurately what it would look like now

 

[Fruitbat]

No investments move one for one with a market indicator. Markets and participants have unlimited variables in behaviors. There is no way to control or predict how people position themselves in the short term. Same with gold and other types of assets as well.Bitcoin and "crypto" are two completely different topics and should be treated accordingly.

I know mate, I’m qualified to run money and work for an asset manager!

I’m not disputing any of what you said, but this is a new asset, and one of its key strengths was said to be its design having an inherent advantage over fiat in holding its real value and that’s the opposite to what’s transpired.

I still don’t understand what it does other than attempt to be a better medium of exchange, and that’s moot: Central Banks can just use the technology.

I don’t see how it can replace the current banking system.

If it’s not a replacement monetary system, it’s an asset. Other than a store of value, I don’t see what it does in terms of an asset.

I own a bit as I’m not techy so can’t profess to understand it fully. It would need to do more to get anywhere near a client portfolio.

The tokens themselves seem to be the equivalent of shares, with no call on assets, no vote, no register of ownership, no dividends. Why not invest in the companies that own the tech?

So many questions and not enough answers.

 

[jaygreenb]

I know mate, I’m qualified to run money and work for an asset manager!

I’m not disputing any of what you said, but this is a new asset, and one of its key strengths was said to be its design having an inherent advantage over fiat in holding its real value and that’s the opposite to what’s transpired.

I worked at some of the largest money managers there are in my 20's, most do not catch early trends or go outside the cookie cutter allocations because of the career and reputational risk

Because of the extremely high volatility it is understandable on why you would make this observation. However you are looking at it in an incorrect lense. If you go by yearly price lows or hash rate committed , the trend becomes much clearer. You have to zoom out instead of looking at short term price fluctuations. That same volatilty is what makes the moves to the upside possible as well. Any early asset going through parabolic network growth is going to very volatile until it reaches a high level to market saturation. Same with early tech stocks, just the nature of the beast.

The inherent advantage is that it can not be diluted by govts or central banks, frozen of confiscated if you use the correct protocols. You own the same percentage of the network and that can not be changed. Over several year time periods your purchasing power has increased greatly as opposed to fiat which has vastly decreased. It is truly an international asset so it is going to vary by what fiat you use to price it. Anyone living in these 3rd world countries with massive amounts of inflation I imagine would strongly disagree with you. It also enables people without banking services a way hold and transfer value and can be used as an escape hatch to a failing govt and allows you to move around capital controls.

I still don’t understand what it does other than attempt to be a better medium of exchange, and that’s moot: Central Banks can just use the technology.

I don’t see how it can replace the current banking system.

If it’s not a replacement monetary system, it’s an asset. Other than a store of value, I don’t see what it does in terms of an asset.

It is possible one day it gets there but does not need to be used as a medium of exchange at scale or replace the banking system. I imagine it will be used to different degrees depending where you are. Even is it was solely used as a store of value it could very easily 10-20x from here. Decentralization is the point of this, so central banks would not be able to use the technology in a way they control it. Gold still has a lot of value without backing any current currencies.

The tokens themselves seem to be the equivalent of shares, with no call on assets, no vote, no register of ownership, no dividends. Why not invest in the companies that own the tech?

So many questions and not enough answers.

You are talking about crypto here not Bitcoin. Two completely different subjects and value props. Most "crypto" is at best a highly speculative tech play but most falls into scam/money grab/garbage bucket.. Investing in companies that own the tech would probably be a smarter way then own a bunch of dog/meme/hype coins

The more clarity, public understanding and adoption you wait for, you are also going to decrease the amount of potential upside. How all investments and trends work usually. Ex. Amazon in early 2000's vs Today.

 

[Bible_Belt]

I worked at some of the largest money managers there are in my 20s

Then as a former licensed professional, you surely must understand the trouble a stock or bond broker would get into for using misleading charts and cherry picked data without any disclaimers. It's like traveling back in time to the late 1920s and getting to fleece the suckers all over again. Those were the glory days of the markets, before they had all these pesky government rules.

 

[jaygreenb]

Then as a former licensed professional, you surely must understand the trouble a stock or bond broker would get into for using misleading charts and cherry picked data without any disclaimers. It's like traveling back in time to the late 1920s and getting to fleece the suckers all over again. Those were the glory days of the markets, before they had all these pesky government rules.

I didn't work in hack broker shops, I am not a trader. Please tell me what chart is misleading?

Literally look at the beginning of this thread. You were on here dancing on graves at 3k with terrible takes and obvious lack of understanding. I have made well over 7 figures on this asset alone. Thank god, I did not listen to you, feel sorry for anyone who actually did. On this thread there is thorough documentation of your incompetence, pretty amazing you even chime in at this point. Results

 

[jaygreenb]

lol doesn't get much worse than this. 2018, literal bottom of the mark. Incredible timing haha

I was saying Sell Mortimer Sell almost a year ago, and people on here were practically threatening to beat me up.

What you have to understand about trading that so many people never will is that markets are not logical, they are emotional...much like women. Guys saying to buy bitcoin because it is logical is not much different from guys saying that women should want them because they have a good job and a great credit score. Logically, they are not incorrect, but it just doesn't work that way. Markets are valued at the sum of the human emotions involved, the balance of fear and greed. Those are the forces that move price, not logic. You can easily be logically correct and go bankrupt, in any market, or with women.

An old trader I knew used to say, "the bubble is over when the last guy gives up."

So when someone starts a thread about bitcoin, and the consensus is "shut up, you idiot, no one cares anymore. We all hate bitcoin now," then that will be the time to buy.


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/07/investing/bitcoin-prices-plunging/index.html

Bitcoin's epic plunge continues

 

[jaygreenb]

My take on same period. What happened? @Bible_Belt

Still very bullish long term on bitcoin, expecting another big drop and some sideways action for the next year or two though.

I am not a developer so I will not attempt to explain how it technically gets there. I do know there has been a lot of progress with the lightning network and additional payment layers can be added to address a lot of those issues in the future. It does not need to be a global currency that transacts as quickly as VISA to make huge gains. The market cap is relatively tiny right now. I do think it has the potential to get there over a long period of time though. Just the fact that it is a decentralized store of value under no governments control and easily transferable without a central bank provides immense value. Everyone knows the rules and unlike typical fiat it can't be printed into oblivion.

I would agree that it's very speculative at this point, all emerging tech is. I do see incredible upside though and have no issues taking a calculated risk on it. There is a lot of attention, money and talent moving into this space and believe with that pressure being applied a lot these problems will get solved. This is a long term play for me and think you need to take larger view of this than the last year and a half. Only time will tell though but we can revisit this in a few years and see how things start to shake out.

 

[Bible_Belt]

I didn't work in hack broker shops, I am not a trader. Please tell me what chart is misleading?

Literally look at the beginning of this thread. You were on here dancing on graves at 3k with terrible takes and obvious lack of understanding. I have made well over 7 figures on this asset alone. Thank god, I did not listen to you, feel sorry for anyone who actually did. On this thread there is thorough documentation of your incompetence, pretty amazing you even chime in at this point. Results

If you have never had a license, I forgive your ignorance. I'm sure what I have been saying must not make a lot of sense. Trust me though, for investments that have any rules to protect customers, you would be breaking a lot of them. You get away with what you do only because the crypto bras bought the politicians who are supposed to regulate investments. If only Ponzi could have had such foresight...

 

[jaygreenb]

If you have never had a license, I forgive your ignorance. I'm sure what I have been saying must not make a lot of sense. Trust me though, for investments that have any rules to protect customers, you would be breaking a lot of them. You get away with what you do only because the crypto bras bought the politicians who are supposed to regulate investments. If only Ponzi could have had such foresight...

We are on a red pill anonymous men's internet forum, not that serious. There is no regulation on posting opinions with supporting evidence. I am not selling anything. Trust me, you do not know what you are talking about. I am impressed though on how someone can be so consistently wrong for years with supporting evidence and still think they are right.

 

[Apone]

I'm still DCAing into bitcoin and a few other alts every week. If they keep going down, I lose some left over change. If they skyrocket again, I profit.

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm still DCAing into bitcoin and a few other alts every week. If they keep going down, I lose some left over change. If they skyrocket again, I profit.

This is the correct way to approach this, you will outperform probably 95%+ over other people in crypto. Would just suggest, if your alts pump take a good percentage off the table. You usually only get 1 to 2 big pumps in a cycle(around 4yrs), then following cycle they either become totally irrelevant or they never reach their highs again in BTC and bleed out. I believe only two coins have reached new highs in BTC in consecutive cycles. This bleed includes Ethereum, first cycle hit .12, next cycle .08ish For vast majority of this, the only real utility is dumping on the price action. Most people in this 4yrs+ would of been better off just staying with bitcoin than playing in alts

 

[RazorRambo24]

I've made some money on bitcoin and lost some money on bitcoin. Just like anything of changing value, you just need to know the basics of trading to make money from it.

Regardless, when you make good money, higher end of 6 figures+, you tend not to care about this stuff as much.. When I first got into bitcoin I was making less than 30k a year. Now I don't need to use volatile ways of investing money to compound my wealth.. since I got more cashflow and I'm eligible for some big loans, I make my money work for me.

 

[FlirtLife]

If I had $4 billion in btc and wanted to make the most of it, I would load up on options (yes, they sell derivatives, which are actually nothing, on bitcoin, which is basically nothing). It would take some time to set up all the fake accounts, but if you dump a huge supply that depresses price and are already positioned with put options, you make exponentially more money. And it's easy to get away with. Someone did it with stock options just before 9/11 and never got caught.

The U.S. has a Bitcoin futures market, but I'm not aware of cheap put options trading on regulated U.S. exchanges. Are you talking about options from offshore crypto exchanges?

And maybe China just wants all that in their pocket as a bargaining ploy to use for negotiating purposes. But the point of holding a large position of anything in an unregulated market would be to manipulate the fvck out of that market...because you can.

Within months of banning Bitcoin, China introduced the digital yuan. Before that, a majority of Bitcoin mining happened in China thanks to cheap electricity.

 

[Solomon]

I'm still DCAing into bitcoin and a few other alts every week. If they keep going down, I lose some left over change. If they skyrocket again, I profit.

I'm focused on alts mainly XRP, ETH, ADA but I think we gonna go up a bit maybe 32K or so then crash hard after the holidays, I could be wrong though