Incoming Recession 2022/2023

[Murk]

It's coming, word on the streets it's going to be brutal. Some of the global companies I work with have let go 10k employees already. Fed rising interest rates .5% to combat inflation, bitcoin down, less money flowing into volatile assets (crypto/tech stocks), China in lockdown still, causing manufacturing and shipping problems globally, Russia, rising oil prices, covid, all designed to crush us and fiat currency.

I personally believe this will usher in the UBI (universal basic income) that all the governments have been muttering about since Covid furloughs. Get everyone fully dependent on the state and a cashless society.

As a small business owner, I'm going into overdrive with my hours at work, trying to extract as much profit from my sector as possible before it happens. I managed to make money during covid, although a struggle, a big recession I'm not sure my sector can survive. I think we all knew this would happen given the last couple of years.

Are you guys aware/making plans? Head in the sand?

 

[jaygreenb]

It's coming, word on the streets it's going to be brutal. Some of the global companies I work with have let go 10k employees already. Fed rising interest rates .5% to combat inflation, bitcoin down, less money flowing into volatile assets (crypto/tech stocks), China in lockdown still, causing manufacturing and shipping problems globally, Russia, rising oil prices, covid, all designed to crush us and fiat currency.

I personally believe this will usher in the UBI (universal basic income) that all the governments have been muttering about since Covid furloughs. Get everyone fully dependent on the state and a cashless society.

As a small business owner, I'm going into overdrive with my hours at work, trying to extract as much profit from my sector as possible before it happens. I managed to make money during covid, although a struggle, a big recession I'm not sure my sector can survive. I think we all knew this would happen given the last couple of years.

Are you guys aware/making plans? Head in the sand?

I have just been getting financially lean in my personal life and business. I am seeing the slowdown as well with taking on new clients. You just have to prepared to weather the storm with cash reserves and minimal debt obligations. On the other side, I believe the QE and rate cuts will get running again once something in the markets break and they have a good excuse. Inflation is not going away for a long time, I have good amount precious metals and Bitcoin for that scenario. I also have a 6 month supply of those emergency food buckets and guns/ammo

In short, maximizing cash flow, minimizing risk, have ample reserves and flexibility to buy distressed assets that will set you up for the next 10-20yrs

 

[DonJuanjr]

I also have a 6 month supply of those emergency food buckets and guns/ammo

I need to get back on track with the "rule of b's"
Bullets
Beans
Bug out Bags
Bandages
Bible(If applicable)
Beers(if applicable)
Buds(if applicable)

 

[jaygreenb]

I need to get back on track with the "rule of b's"
Bullets
Beans
Bug out Bags
Bandages
Bible(If applicable)
Beers(if applicable)
Buds(if applicable)

Yeah, if there was ever a time to prepare, now is probably it. I bought a bunch of canned and dry goods right before we locked down with covid, when we had no clue what was happening. A lot of that stuff is probably bad now, need to inventory and replenish. I am in California too, we are having a pretty severe drought so water is probably not a bad idea either

 

[Murk]

I stocked up canned/dry food during covid and never stop adding to it. I have water filtration and know ways to get drinking water. I'm in the UK so no gun but you can legally own a shotgun (not many people realise this) and I'm in the process.

 

[DonJuanjr]

I stocked up canned/dry food during covid and never stop adding to it. I have water filtration and know ways to get drinking water. I'm in the UK so no gun but who can legally own a shotgun (not many people realise this) and I'm in the process.

In a land of people who don't believe in firearms, you'll have a major advantage...

"Those who hammer their guns into plowshares will plow for those who do not."

 

[Murk]

In a land of people who don't believe in firearms, you'll have a major advantage...

"Those who hammer their guns into plowshares will plow for those who do not."

When I speak to people about the second amendment here in the UK they think I’m deluded. The right to protect yourself and your property from enemies and corrupt governments should never be taken from anybody.

As soon as they take your guns, they take your rights, documented in every country since records began.

Despite what people think we do have lots of guns in the UK but they’re illegal and you get 10 years in prison for having one. Rifles, shotguns, muzzle loaded pistols and handguns are allowed but need a license. People here are brainwashed thinking we won’t need them.

 

[zekko]

I've lived through several recessions, but this will be the first one where people actually don't want to have jobs anyway. Maybe if things get brutal enough, they'll change their mind about that.

 

[jaygreenb]

When I speak to people about the second amendment here in the UK they think I’m deluded. The right to protect yourself and your property from enemies and corrupt governments should never be taken from anybody.

As soon as they take your guns, they take your rights, documented in every country since records began.

Despite what people think we do have lots of guns in the UK but they’re illegal and you get 10 years in prison for having one. Rifles, shotguns, muzzle loaded pistols and handguns are allowed but need a license. People here are brainwashed thinking we won’t need them.

Perfect example of this is the draconian lock downs in Australia. They recently took their guns

 

[jaygreenb]

I've lived through several recessions, but this will be the first one where people actually don't want to have jobs anyway. Maybe if things get brutal enough, they'll change their mind about that.

It's pretty crazy the overall mental shift that has taken place the past few years, it's a real issue recruiting new employees. Giving out all that free money was a massive mistake. Not sure what all these people are doing to survive

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

Recession / stagflation is coming.

Then something worse.

Interest rates must rise, which means a lot of businesses which live off low interest debt will have to make some harsh decisions.

Lots of unemployment coming.

Supply chains are wrecked.

Slim pickens at the supermarket.

Absolute unpredictability.

I don't think it will come to bug out time, but you need to be nimble on your feet and be VERY flexible with how you make your income.

I doubt a currency crash is coming soon, but the dollar seems to be the relative strongest, all other currencies are wrecked.

General consensus is interest rates have been falling (bonds are rising in price) over the past 40 years or so.

They'll be a slow bottoming out, (of rates) and bond prices will start to slowly drop over the next couple decades.

This slow turn at the bottom will require a lot of restructuring on plenty of levels (individual, corporate, government etc.)

IF we make it though and the dollar is still intact you could be in good shape.

Rising interest rates will wreck pretty much anything related to social media and any kind of "fake income" from working any company that lives on debt.

After the transition (if we're not all dead) the economy will be real companies making real things.

A lot less wokeness and entitlement.

Most people, ladies included, will understand the value of working for a living and will hopefully shed entitlement.

The whole global economy will essentially have to tie ourselves to the bed and hopefully not die when we quit heroin cold turkey.

Absolutely horrible process, but definitely much better times on the other side.

Hang in there, keep your powder dry and keep your money tight.

If you can provide real value to plenty of people during the transition and on the other side (maybe 5 years?) you'll shine like a diamond.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

There is a growing subset of companies, institutions and stock market insiders that are saying the recession fears are being way overblown and that we will see a slow down but likely not a recession.

Companies have set record stock buybacks the first quarter and seemingly will continue to do so as they are flush with cash, which some claim will head off more downside.


In fact they are already seeing demand falling, supply chains easing which likely will lead to inflation falling.

Recession Fears Overblown: Morningstar Investment Conference

FamilyWealthReport - Exclusive Intelligence for the family office community

www.familywealthreport.com

.

 

[zekko]

A lot less wokeness and entitlement.

I would hope that to be the case, but economic woes and chaos is just the sort of breeding ground the woke revolutionaries like to see. So I'm not so sure. We've already seen a few businesses, like Netflix, dial back the wokeness in an effort to increase profit, but others are doubling down. Time will tell.

 

[jaygreenb]

One thing that does seem pretty clear, the middle class is going to be gutted. Doing those sanctions on Russia was most likely the beginning of the end of having the reserve currency. Going to be a lot of opportunity though for those that position themselves correctly. Hopefully the values of society are reset in that process.

 

[Zimbabwe]

Some of these comments are ****ing hilarious.

"Stock up on canned food and such cause its going to get really bad"

Are you in Ukraine or something? If we're talking UK this is just ridiculous fear mongering.

Yes there are indicators sugesting an incoming recession, but this talk happens all the time. Man there was talk about an upcoming recession for the last 10 years since 2008 crisis. These indicators have some conformation bias, you just don't see the points when they were wrong but everyone is screaming "I knew it, you dumb people" when it happens then.

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

Time will tell.

I disagree.

Wokeness is only possible when companies are living off artificially low interest rates.

Once interest rates start rising, companies will need to slash hard.

Nobody will be willing to pay for woke nonsense, and the woke will be without any companies to work for.

Rising interest rates will utterly obliterate all woke sentiment from any company still capable of doing business.

 

[zekko]

Wokeness is only possible when companies are living off artificially low interest rates.

Well, I hope you're right. But the ultimate aim of wokeness is a more fully socialized form of economy, so I'm not sure we can apply the traditional capitalistic rules. We are dealing with fanatics here who are dug into their position, and some range from activists to revolutionaries. They're not likely to back down because of some economic hardships. A lot depends on just how ensconced these people are in and among the upper administration. Most corporations have diversity and inclusivity officers that wield a lot of power.

 

[BillyPilgrim]

Some of these comments are ****ing hilarious.

"Stock up on canned food and such cause its going to get really bad"

Are you in Ukraine or something? If we're talking UK this is just ridiculous fear mongering.

Yes there are indicators sugesting an incoming recession, but this talk happens all the time. Man there was talk about an upcoming recession for the last 10 years since 2008 crisis. These indicators have some conformation bias, you just don't see the points when they were wrong but everyone is screaming "I knew it, you dumb people" when it happens then.

Easy to say when you've got a continent of farmland and 25 million people...

 

[Who Dares Win]

And you really think a crysis or the pretext wont be exaggerated from institutions in order to have more control over citizens?

"Look free market failed, now we need all the processes to be centralized and supervised from professionals"

What we risk to have is a patriot act for our economical freedom...also covid can still be summoned if needed.

They have a virus and a terrible dictator to blame and to point at while they wash their balls with our rights.

Not sure if you were around and noticed what happened in canada (not somewhere in africa) in the last year.

 

[jaygreenb]

I disagree.

Wokeness is only possible when companies are living off artificially low interest rates.

Once interest rates start rising, companies will need to slash hard.

Nobody will be willing to pay for woke nonsense, and the woke will be without any companies to work for.

Rising interest rates will utterly obliterate all woke sentiment from any company still capable of doing business.

There is another dynamic at play with this. Blackrock who owns a large share of just about every company is behind a lot of the corporate push, especially ESG. They are essentially another arm of the govt in many ways at this point. So it isn't only market forces pushing a lot of their decision making