Was at the strip club last night - insight into what's on the horizon economically and socially

[SargeMaximus]

The Fed is not “private” it is independent within the government meaning not subjected to the pressure of politicians. It does not regulate interest rates to “fix” the economy. That sounds like straight out of a conspiracy theory blog.

Again, I’ll re-iterate that it is not the government that causes inflation. This inflation is global in nature and is caused by supply shortages. The single most influential price for inflation is oil. So buckle up and brace yourself for fallout over what is happening in Ukraine.

Supply shortages because of increased demand because of more money.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Supply shortages because of increased demand because of more money.

No. Supply shortages were due to lockdowns, people being sick with the virus, and a reduced labor force.

 

[SargeMaximus]

No. Supply shortages were due to lockdowns, people being sick with the virus, and a reduced labor force.

Not true. That’s part of it, but also the money supply being increased. You can print money, but you can’t print stuff money buys. Higher demand but not higher supply = supply shortage

 

[EyeBRollin]

Not true. That’s part of it, but also the money supply being increased. You can print money, but you can’t print stuff money buys. Higher demand but not higher supply = supply shortage

Money supply has little effect on modern economies. They could print zero and this inflation would still happen. Your interpretation of the circumstance is just wrong.

 

[SargeMaximus]

Money supply has little effect on modern economies. They could print zero and this inflation would still happen. Your interpretation of the circumstance is just wrong.

No it’s not. You are wrong. If you have more money to buy stuff, but the stuff hasn’t increased, then there will be a supply shortage.

 

[EyeBRollin]

No it’s not. You are wrong. If you have more money to buy stuff, but the stuff hasn’t increased, then there will be a supply shortage.

No. I am correct. If there 10 cars on the lot and 10 interested buyers, but a flood comes through and destroys 5 of the cars - what happens to the price of the remaining cars?

For you math majors, “money printing” doesn’t have a damn thing to do with any of it.

 

[biggoal]

Pvssy hyper-inflation, economic hyper-inflation, stagnant wages, high cost of living - Welcome to the Weimar Republic 2.0

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Depends on the area of the country too. Here in FL it's hitting very bad. Especially the housing cost. Houses are way overpriced here in most of FL currently. The problem with Florida is the jobs pay pretty low and doesn't equate the insane house and rent prices. Stories of people's rent going up 600 in one year. House prices are terrible here right now. The wages here in FL have not kept up with the housing cost. Not even close.

 

[SargeMaximus]

No. I am correct. If there 10 cars on the lot and 10 interested buyers, but a flood comes through and destroys 5 of the cars - what happens to the price of the remaining cars?

For you math majors, “money printing” doesn’t have a damn thing to do with any of it.

Yes and now not only has a flood removed 5 cars, but more buyers are in the market because they got stimmie checks and money printing.Hence higher demand as well. You aren’t accounting for that. People don’t just magically stop spending money when they get more, they buy more to match their increased money. And that leads to higher demand. Supply, however, can’t be printed, so it has to stay fixed while demand increases which raises the price. If you don’t realize that you are ignoring it. I’m terrible at math, but I know demand and limited supply dynamics

 

[EyeBRollin]

Yes and now not only has a flood removed 5 cars, but more buyers are in the market because they got stimmie checks and money printing.Hence higher demand as well. You aren’t accounting for that. People don’t just magically stop spending money when they get more, they buy more to match their increased money. And that leads to higher demand. Supply, however, can’t be printed, so it has to stay fixed while demand increases which raises the price. If you don’t realize that you are ignoring it. I’m terrible at math, but I know demand and limited supply dynamics

You are trying to make the reality fit your hypothesis rather than just accept what it is. Men need to stop bvtching about central banks and acquire that which other people want.

 

[Plinco]

Pvssy hyper-inflation, economic hyper-inflation, stagnant wages, high cost of living - Welcome to the Weimar Republic 2.0

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Historically hyper inflation happens when you have massive amounts of currency printing, a young population, a failing industrial economy, and people losing faith in the currency. Europe and Japan have printed more currency than the United States, however their populations are aging extensively and it's difficult for them to get any inflation at all; their trends are deflationary.

the USA in 2022 bears no similarities to the Weimar Republic. Nor does the UK, Canada, Australia… wait, do you think inflation is only in the USA?

The United States can get away with a lot more currency printing because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. As the world destabilizes, capital has been fleeing way from potential trouble zones into North American and Southeast Asia. A lot of money has been fleeing out of China and has fueled real-estate booms in safer countries; Germany and Japan have been setting up auto manufacturing plants close to their consumer, the USA. The increase in the Y part of the equation has mitigated inflation to an extent.

Supply shortages because of increased demand because of more money.

No. Supply shortages were due to lockdowns, people being sick with the virus, and a reduced labor force.

There is truth to both statements. MV=PY

If you want to be top tier it's actually better to choose a very rich family to be born into.

The economy is not a meritocracy. That's a complete lie perpetuated by people who have inherited their wealth and are ashamed of it. If you are starting out in the economy today with zero dollars, hoping to get rich, you are literally fvcked.

The mind is a powerful tool. Sure there are winners and losers, but I don't believe that people are fundamentally born as a winner or loser; some are dealt better hands than others.

Depends on the area of the country too. Here in FL it's hitting very bad. Especially the housing cost. Houses are way overpriced here in most of FL currently. The problem with Florida is the jobs pay pretty low and doesn't equate the insane house and rent prices. Stories of people's rent going up 600 in one year. House prices are terrible here right now. The wages here in FL have not kept up with the housing cost. Not even close.

This is a result of internal migration in the United States and Florida being a destination for retiring baby boomers. Housing in Florida is either not overpriced, or not nearly as overpriced as in New York City or in the state of California. There is evidence of a housing bubble again here in the United States, but the increased demand in places like Florida and Texas has taken the air out of the bubble in these places and has pulled the rug out from underneath in states like California. In the states of New York and Illinois, there has been a net migration out, and in California there is a rough net replacement of poorer immigrant populations.

Money supply has little effect on modern economies. They could print zero and this inflation would still happen. Your interpretation of the circumstance is just wrong.

This view is completely incorrect. Currency supply has an effect on money velocity; the increase in the amount of currency lowers money velocity, and if that money velocity picks back up due to something like the lockdowns ending, then that currency creation is now especially bidding up the demand of the economy, like what @SargeMaximus said.

 

[MatureDJ]

So I was at the strip club last night getting my swerve on ... I noticed was 90% of these guys were not particularly attractive. They had poor facial aesthetics, thinning hair or receding hairlines, overweight, dress sloppily, had poor hygiene.

Of course, Chad-tier men are sexed up by women, so why would they go to a strip joint? It's only the frustrated sub-8 men who feel the need to go to a strip joint so to get some degree of female intimacy. Of course, there is the random "bachelor party" crowd, and a few Chad-tier men will be there; I've noticed that the strippers tend to talk to them more, so I wonder if they are macking him.

As for the sloppy dress, it could be that they are wearing athletic pants, with no underpants, so that they can get lapdances that result in a happy ending. Plus, what would be the point of dressing up to go to a strip joint? My regular attire for a strip joint is a simple cotton shirt (with collar) and only sweat pants for the bottom. I seem to only to go clubbing when it is cold enough to wear a jacket, so if I end up with a happy ending, I carry the jacket out front so as to hide the accident.

 

[MatureDJ]

Actually I think it's going to be much worse than that this time around. You are going to start seeing food and fuel shortages in many parts of the world this year.

I don't think the fuel shortage will be super-critical; once the price of oil goes north of some level like $150/BBL, a certain portion of folks stop driving; this will fit in perfectly with folks working from home (i.e., employers can be shamed by Biden into continuing this so that we can make it). All the fracking oil production that going on pre-COVID, and now has disappeared to some extent, can be restarted with government guarantees - and I don't think it would take much time (e.g., a year or two) to get production up. And there is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

What will be in shortage will be food, and there is not the ability to produce more or consume less - although some livestock feed could be rerouted to human food. Russia is an exporter, and they can sell to China or India, who of course have a lot of mouths to feed, thereby freeing up supply elsewhere (i.e., that supply is fungible). What will go offline is the Ukrainian production, and that needs to get going by mid-April or the whole growing season will be knocked out. I'm going long with a good chunk of my trading assets in CORN & WEAT.

 

[Plinco]

I don't think the fuel shortage will be super-critical; once the price of oil goes north of some level like $150/BBL, a certain portion of folks stop driving; this will fit in perfectly with folks working from home (i.e., employers can be shamed by Biden into continuing this so that we can make it). All the fracking oil production that going on pre-COVID, and now has disappeared to some extent, can be restarted with government guarantees - and I don't think it would take much time (e.g., a year or two) to get production up. And there is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

What will be in shortage will be food, and there is not the ability to produce more or consume less - although some livestock feed could be rerouted to human food. Russia is an exporter, and they can sell to China or India, who of course have a lot of mouths to feed, thereby freeing up supply elsewhere (i.e., that supply is fungible). What will go offline is the Ukrainian production, and that needs to get going by mid-April or the whole growing season will be knocked out. I'm going long with a good chunk of my trading assets in CORN & WEAT.

The cheapest way to transport bulk goods is by boat. Leaving the production disruption aside, the Black sea is not safe for transport until the war is over. Insurance companies will not insure shipping in war zones, thus if these bulk agriculture goods are to be shipped from Russia, it has to be done over land, which is 70 times more expensive.

The increase of food prices in the middle east is more than enough for Arab spring part two. It's possible (probable) with the ripple of geopolitical events that oil shipments can be disrupted from the middle east in addition to Russia.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Again, your interpretations are that of a vivid imagination.

Historically hyper inflation happens when you have massive amounts of currency printing, a young population, a failing industrial economy, and people losing faith in the currency.

Hyper inflation is mostly about political instability and the currency denomination. Weimar tried to print their way out of war debt owed to other countries. The United States would have to print trillions of dollars in a day to get anything near hyperinflation.

Europe and Japan have printed more currency than the United States, however their populations are aging extensively and it's difficult for them to get any inflation at all; their trends are deflationary.

As I’ve established in several posts, money printing in a modern economy has little to do with inflation.

The United States can get away with a lot more currency printing because the dollar is the world's reserve currency.

That has nothing to do with it.

There is truth to both statements. MV=PY

This view is completely incorrect. Currency supply has an effect on money velocity; the increase in the amount of currency lowers money velocity, and if that money velocity picks back up due to something like the lockdowns ending, then that currency creation is now especially bidding up the demand of the economy, like what @SargeMaximus said.

There is nothing wrong with the formula, it is the interpretation that is poor. What came first - the chicken or the egg?

It all boils down to human behavior- supply and demand. The biggest inflationary correlation on the modern economy is oil prices, which is why the inflation mongers need to be concerned about what is happening in Ukraine.



Furthermore, the relationship between Federal debt (I.e. “money printing”) and inflation is as follows:

 

[Plinco]

I have never understood the "money printing" idea. A dollar is worth what someone gives up for it. It still has to be gained through trade or labor. Unless the government really is just handing over bags of freshly printed bills to plutocrats and I'm just a useful idiot. But that would devalue their money. So I don't get it.

Inflation is a tax. Think of it like this, why is counterfeiting illegal?

 

[EyeBRollin]

I have never understood the "money printing" idea. A dollar is worth what someone gives up for it. It still has to be gained through trade or labor. Unless the government really is just handing over bags of freshly printed bills to plutocrats and I'm just a useful idiot. But that would devalue their money. So I don't get it.

Modern economies of the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, etc all run on fiat curriencies that float against each other. They run a small to moderate deficit each year to keep a positive balance of new dollars into the economy. This encourages people to buy, sell, and produce more goods and services.

The school of thought around conspiracy theorists is that this monetary system is inherently corrupt, planned, and makes people poorer. The “deep state” central bank is being irresponsible thus driving up inflation they say.

The reality is that inflation, the general rises in prices in an economy, comes down to supply and demand. When something becomes more scarce, the price goes up. This is evident in the two most important pricing metrics - the cost of energy and the cost of housing. They drive inflation.

The global inflation of 2021-2022 is a supply shortage problem that will now be exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict with the rest of the world dumping Russia oil.

 

[Plinco]

As I’ve established in several posts, money printing in a modern economy has little to do with inflation.

What does counterfeiting do?

That has nothing to do with it.

Being a reserve currency means that there are institutional build in demand for that currency, thus institutional backed confidence or faith. Other counties use the dollar when exchanging their currencies while trading with each other.

It all boils down to human behavior- supply and demand. The biggest inflationary correlation on the modern economy is oil prices, which is why the inflation mongers need to be concerned about what is happening in Ukraine.

Decrease in Y and increase in V are both potent ways to get price inflation. M inflation is a factor in P inflation.

View attachment 8053

Furthermore, the relationship between Federal debt (I.e. “money printing”) and inflation is as follows:

View attachment 8054

I would recommend using shadowstats to gauge inflation numbers. The US government uses manipulated data in their calculation of inflation post 1982. Also, M inflation does not cause P inflation right away due to Y and V factors.

 

[EyeBRollin]

I have never understood the "money printing" idea. A dollar is worth what someone gives up for it. It still has to be gained through trade or labor.

To circle this back into how it affects the DJ..

what happens when we text and call a woman too often? (Too much supply- she thinks more about why Chad / Tyrone hasn’t called her in 6 days)

 

[Plinco]

To circle this back into how it affects the DJ..

what happens when we text and call a woman too often? (Too much supply- she thinks more about why Chad / Tyrone hasn’t called her in 6 days)

Now think about that in terms of more currency chasing the same amount of goods.

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

everyone equates money supply to inflation when the evidence tells a different story

A Nobel winning economist would disagree with you.